Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Shannon & Tyler

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

I hope everyone had a great time ringing in the New Year! We’ll get back to business with a fairly modest six-game Thursday slate. There are a handful of high-profile players who will carry “questionable” designations ahead of the slate. Things are spread out evenly on this slate with two 7:30 ET tipoffs, two 8:00 ET tipoffs, and two late games in the 10 o’clock ET window, so make sure you’re up to speed on major news that is released ahead of those three times in case any adjustments need to be made. Let’s get into it. Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

• Pacers: A. Nesmith - OUT

• Heat: J. Richardson - OUT

• Celtics: J. Brown - Questionable, K. Porzingis - Questionable

• Timberwolves: None

• Nets: B. Simmons - OUT, N. Clowney - Questionable, T. Watford - OUT

• Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable, K. Middleton - Probable, AJ Green - Questionable

• Clippers: J. Harden - Questionable, T. Mann - OUT

• Thunder: C. Holmgren - OUT, A. Caruso - OUT

• 76ers: J. Embiid - Questionable, K. Oubre Jr. - Questionable, KJ Martin - OUT

• Warriors: S. Curry - Questionable, D. Green - Probable, B. Podziemski - OUT, G. Payton II - OUT, K. Anderson - Questionable

• Trailblazers: J. Grant - OUT, D. Banton - Questionable

• Lakers: A. Davis - Doubtful, G. Vincent - Doubtful

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Austin Reaves, LAL | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.9k | vs. POR

I’m not sure what has gotten into Austin Reaves lately but the man has put up three consecutive monster performances, beginning with a Christmas Day 26/10/10 triple-double followed by a 26-point/16-assist game and, most recently, a 35-point/10-assist showing on Tuesday where he was also one rebound shy of another triple-double. In those three games, Reaves posted usage rates of 29.7%, 25.0%, and 32.6% -- all well above his season average of 21.3%. The recent D’Angelo Russell trade to the Nets perhaps adds a bit more to Reaves’ ceiling but, really, it just seems like he’s locked in. How long the heater will continue is yet to be determined but we’ll see if the iron’s still hot as he takes on a Trailblazers team that is 28th in DEFRTG and ranks 24th versus starting PGs this season. Reaves should be an even stronger play if Anthony Davis (ankle/questionable) ends up sitting out.

Update: Anthony Davis is now listed as “doubtful”. Reaves has taken on a +9.2% USG% boost & +11.8 FP per 32-minute increase with both AD and D’Angelo Russell off the floor this season.

PG Anfernee Simons, POR | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7k | at LAL

Simons has been a volatile player for DFS ever since he began receiving regular starts in the 2021-22 season, but he’s been “on” much more than he’s been “off” lately. Simons has poured in at least 37.5 DKFP/34.8 FDFP in six of his last eight games. He has also averaged +4.9 more FP per 32 minutes with Jerami Grant (face/out) off the floor this season. Opposing starting point guards have also scored at least 41.25 DKFP/39.0 FDFP in seven consecutive games versus the Lakers so I believe we’re more likely to see a strong game out of Simons tonight rather than one of his patented duds.

PG Jrue Holiday, BOS | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.7k | at MIN

We’ll have a better idea of which cheap guards will have the most appeal once more injury news is available but, for now, Jrue Holiday may not be a bad target, especially on DraftKings where he’s under $5k. Holiday may not have the same sort of high usage role as he has had for much of his career but he still plays an important role in this dominant Celtics offense while also racking up multiple steals/blocks in many games. Holiday has procured at least 29.25 DKFP/28.4 FDFP in five of his last eight starts with a ceiling of 41.25 DKFP/41.0 FDFP in that span, so he can certainly pay off at these low-end price points. Furthermore, Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis are both questionable to play tonight, so Holiday could take on a heavier workload if either of those guys were to sit out.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC vs. LAC

PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI at GSW

PG/SG Tyler Herro, MIA vs. IND

PG/SG Payton Pritchard, BOS at MIN

PG/SG Shaedon Sharpe, POR at LAL

PG/SG D’Angelo Russell, BKN at MIL

PG/SG Dennis Schroder, GSW vs. PHI (Preferred if S. Curry is out)

PG/SG Donte DiVincenzo, MIN vs. BOS

PG/SG Kris Dunn, LAC at OKC (Boost if J. Harden is out)

PG Kevin Porter Jr., LAC at OKC (Boost if J. Harden is out)

PG Ajay Mitchell, OKC vs. LAC

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF LeBron James, LAL | DK: $9.9k, FD: $9.6k | vs. POR

While I was writing this newsletter, Anthony Davis was downgraded from “questionable” to “doubtful”, so his likely absence will make multiple Lakers more enticing DFS plays. Surprisingly, Davis has only missed one full game this season and that came back on Nov. 6th against Memphis. In that game, LeBron supplied 39 points on 15-of-24 shooting and a huge 35.1% USG% while netting 59.25 DKFP/54.40 FDFP. Davis also exited the Christmas Day game early after playing just seven minutes. That resulted in another quality LeBron performance -- 59.0 DKFP/58.80 FDFP. Overall, LeBron has increased his usage rate by +7.94 percentage points with AD off the floor. While he’s not cheap, you could make a strong case that LeBron now looks like a potential bargain -- under $10k on both sites -- now that AD isn’t looking likely to play.

PF Jonathan Kuminga, GSW | DK: $6k, FD: $6.9k | vs. PHI

While it has partially been due to injuries to the Warriors’ lineup, Kuminga has popped for several huge games recently, averaging a stout 1.36 FPPM and 43.9 DKFP/43.3 FDFP over his last five games. He’s been over 32 Min/gm in that stretch, which is a significant boost up from his 26.2 Min/gm average on the season. If Steph Curry (thumb/questionable) is unable to play, Kuminga should be a primary beneficiary as he has seen a team-leading +3.7% USG% increase with Curry off the floor.

PF/C Obi Toppin, IND | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.2k | at MIA

Once again, we’ll know more about which cheap forwards to target once further injury news is known. Until then, Obi Toppin piques my interest with his $4,200 salary on both sites. Prior to suffering an ankle injury on Dec. 26th, which would keep him out the following two games, Toppin had put up at least 28.25 DKFP/28.1 FDFP in seven of his previous nine games which included a ceiling performance of 41.5 DKFP/43.1 FDFP. While his minutes aren’t going to be significant since he plays off of the bench, he can stuff the stat sheet in a hurry and easily averages over an FPPM. He returned from his injury absence on New Year’s Eve and only played 12 minutes, but if he can get closer to 20-24 minutes tonight, I would imagine that he’ll comfortably pay dividends at his current DFS salaries. But, of course, how many minutes he’ll actually get tonight is a mystery, so I’d keep Toppin reserved as a leverage play in tournaments.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL vs. BKN

SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS at MIN (Boost if J. Brown and/or K. Porzingis are out)

PF Pascal Siakam, IND at MIA

SF/SG Norman Powell, LAC at OKC (Boost if J. Harden is out)

SF/PF Deni Avdija, POR at LAL

PF/C Naz Reid, MIN vs. BOS

SF/SG Toumani Camara, POR at LAL

PF/C Dorian Finney-Smith, LAL vs. POR (Only if starting at center in place of AD)

PF Derrick Jones Jr., LAC at OKC

SF/SG Moses Moody, GSW vs. PHI (Preferred if S. Curry is out)

PF/C Kenrich Williams, OKC vs. LAC

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Deandre Ayton, POR | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.3k | at LAL

Like most of the Trailblazers’ key players, you never really know what you’re going to get out of Ayton on a game-to-game basis, but he has certainly shown the ability to smash value at his current price points. Blowouts have limited Ayton’s minutes in several games but, when Portland is able to keep things competitive, he rarely has issues turning in a strong performance when he gets mid-30s minutes. The fact that Anthony Davis isn’t likely to play does increase the chances of this game staying close, and Ayton could dominate the interior against whoever the Lakers decide to roll out at starting center. These teams met earlier this month and Ayton supplied a 14-points/19-rebound double-double and 43.75 DKFP/42.3 FDFP in 35 minutes, and that was with AD playing on the other side.

C Trayce Jackson-Davis, GSW | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.9k | vs. PHI

DraftKings continues to be far too slow to price TJD correctly, and they actually gave him a $200 price decrease even after scoring 43.5 DKFP in his last game on Monday. Jackson-Davis has started the previous six games for the Warriors, scoring no fewer than 29.5 DKFP/30.1 FDFP and averaging 1.35 FPPM in that span. He’ll have to contend with Joel Embiid (assuming he plays despite the questionable tag) but TJD should also receive some interior help from Draymond Green at times. While he remains a “fine” play on FanDuel, he’s simply too tough to overlook at that $4,700 tag on DraftKings.

Other Centers to Consider

C Joel Embiid, PHI at GSW (Currently questionable)

C Ivica Zubac, LAC at OKC

C Jaxson Hayes, LAL vs. POR (Preferred if starting -- risky option due to minutes uncertainty)

C Day’Ron Sharpe, BKN at MIL

C Kel’el Ware, MIA vs. IND

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Austin Reaves MORE than 41.0 Fantasy Score

Anfernee Simons MORE than 31.0 Fantasy Score

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Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!