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NBA Props Show w/ Shannon

Note: Tyler is out today so there will not be an NBA DFS video.

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

We’re back in business with a short five-game NBA Tuesday slate! If the Vegas lines are to be believed, most of these games are setting up as possible blowouts. Four of the five match-ups currently hold spreads of at least 11 points. So tread carefully out there today as this thing could end up being a fairly ugly slate. We’ll have a larger set of games with better match-ups on the board tomorrow, so I wouldn’t blame anyone if they approached today’s slate with a bit more caution and a lower bankroll than usual. Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

• Knicks: K. Towns - Probable, J. Hart - Probable

• Nets: C. Thomas - OUT, D. Russell - Probable, B. Simmons - OUT, Z. Williams - OUT, T. Watford - OUT

• Magic: F. Wagner - OUT, J. Suggs - OUT, C. Anthony - Questionable, G. Bitadze - OUT, J. Isaac - Questionable, J. Howard - Questionable, G. Harris - Questionable

• Raptors: I. Quickley - OUT, C. Boucher - Questionable, O. Agbaji - OUT

• Trailblazers: A. Simons - Questionable, D. Clingan - OUT, K. Murray - Questionable, R. Williams - Questionable

• Heat: T. Herro - Questionable, K. Love - Probable

• 76ers: J. Embiid - OUT, P. George - Questionable, G. Yabusele - Questionable, A. Drummond - Questionable, C. Martin - Questionable, K. Lowry - OUT, KJ Martin - OUT

• Nuggets: J. Murray - Probable, P. Watson - Probable

• Wizards: M. Brogdon - OUT

• Lakers: A. Davis - Questionable, L. James - Probable

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Austin Reaves, LAL | DK: $8k, FD: $7.7k | vs. WAS

There aren’t many players you can feel great about on this slate, given the amount of blowout potential across the board, but even though he has been fairly volatile lately, Austin Reaves sets up as a worthy option this evening. The match-up speaks for itself as the Wizards have allowed the most FPPG to PG starters L20Games while checking in at dead last in DEFRTG and 4th in pace. It’s a significant pace-up spot for the Lakers, who are 23rd in the NBA in pace. Reaves can also be trusted more when he’s on his home court. Compared to his road splits, Reaves has averaged +16.9% more FPPG at home this season. While we may not know Anthony Davis’ (calf/questionable) status until later this evening, it would be a considerable boost to Reaves if AD is out tonight. With Davis off the floor this season, Reaves has handled a +6.74% USG% boost and averaged +11.4 more FP per 32 minutes.

PG/SG D’Angelo Russell, BKN | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.4k | vs. NYK

There is a very wide gap between Russell’s price points on DraftKings and FanDuel, so consider this more of a DK recommendation. Most of the mid-range guards do not inspire much confidence, but the Nets will be down a few backcourt players (Ben Simmons, Ziaire Williams, Cam Thomas) so Russell could take over more control of the offense this evening. While Russell hasn’t played huge minutes in any game since coming over to the Nets via trade, perhaps due to dealing with some injuries, he has averaged a stout 1.27 FPPM in the games he has played with Brooklyn. If he can manage to crack the 30-minute threshold, he could provide some real value (on DraftKings) tonight.

PG Anthony Black, ORL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4.9k | at TOR

Keep an eye on the Magic injury report as Anthony Black could be in line for a spot start if Cole Anthony (illness/questionable) is unable to suit up. Regardless of Cole Anthony’s status, Black sets up as a decent value play based on recent performances. Over his L5Games, Black is averaging 13.8 PPG, 4.0 APG, 3.0 RPG, 1.4 STL+BLK/gm, and 25.8 DKFP/26.0 FDFP while playing 28.9 Min/gm. Toronto ranks 27th versus reserve PGs L20Games and they are 28th in overall DEFRTG. This game is also the only match-up on the slate that doesn’t have a double-digit spread (ORL -1.5).

Other Guards to Consider

PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI at DEN (Boost if P. George is out)

PG Jalen Brunson, NYK at BKN

PG/SG Tyler Herro, MIA vs. POR (Currently questionable)

PG/SG Jamal Murray, DEN vs. PHI

PG Scoot Henderson, POR at MIA (Preferred if A. Simons is out)

SG/SF Mikal Bridges, NYK at BKN

PG/SG Terry Rozier, MIA vs. POR

SG/SF Max Christie, LAL vs. WAS

SG Duncan Robinson, MIA vs. POR (Boost if T. Herro is out)

PG/SG Cameron Payne, NYK at BKN

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF LeBron James, LAL | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.9k | vs. WAS

On a slate with so many slippery slopes, it’s probably not a bad idea to just plug and play LeBron James at a sub-$10 salary on both sites. LeBron is still providing plenty of 50+ FP performances now at 40 years old and has also handled a +3.2% USG% increase when Anthony Davis (questionable) is off the floor -- though, LeBron is in play on this slate regardless of AD’s availability. While the Lakers are sizable 13.5-point favorites tonight versus the lowly 6-35 Wizards, there haven’t been many easy wins to come by for this year’s Lakers team and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if this ends up being a fairly close game. The Wizards rank dead last versus starting power forwards L20Games so, if LeBron plays his usual 35-ish minutes, expect a quality DFS outcome.

SF/PF Deni Avdija, POR | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.9k | at MIA

This Trailblazers’ starting rotation is in constant flux but, even with PF Jerami Grant returning from a nine-game absence, Deni Avdija stayed in the starting lineup on Sunday. Avdija was coming off of a three-game injury absence of his own due to an ankle injury, but he didn’t miss a beat upon his return, racking up a 20-point, 12-rebound double-double with three assists and three steals across 35 minutes of action versus the Bulls -- it was a performance that netted him 45.5 DKFP/43.9 FDFP. On paper, the match-up appears much worse for Avdija, compared to the Bulls, but he did put up 44.0 DKFP/42.9 FDFP against the Heat ten days ago, prior to missing the following three games with the ankle injury. Unless he shifts back to the bench, Avdija appears to be as good of a forward option as anyone else out of this general price range.

PF/C Kel’el Ware, MIA | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.4k | vs. POR

Ware recently gained power forward eligibility on DraftKings and, considering he has played alongside Bam Adebayo recently and has spent time at the four position, it makes sense. Ware’s level of play has led to some strong minutes in a couple of recent games. He is averaging an impressive 1.30 FPPM L5Games and has logged at least 33 minutes in two of the last four games (though, Bam Adebayo was out for one of those games). It’s also worth noting that in Miami’s last game, Ware played the entire second quarter and also started the second half ahead of Haywood Highsmith. Now, I wasn’t watching that game so someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t believe the second-half starting lineup switch came about due to an injury to Highsmith, and it certainly wasn’t due to any foul trouble. So, this could be a situation worth monitoring. While it’d be great if Ware all of a sudden entered the starting rotation, I believe enough signs are pointing toward his role increasing that he should firmly land on the radar as a value play today.

Other Forwards to Consider

SF/PG Scottie Barnes, TOR vs. ORL

SF/SG Paul George, PHI at DEN (Currently questionable)

SF/PF Josh Hart, NYK at BKN

PF Kyle Kuzma, WAS at LAL

PF/C Alexandre Sarr, WAS at LAL

SF/PF Rui Hachimura, LAL vs. WAS (Preferred if A. Davis is out)

PF/C Nikola Jovic, MIA vs. POR

SF/PF Ricky Council IV, PHI at DEN (Only if P. George is out + Council starts again)

SF/PF Kyshawn George, WAS at LAL

SF/SG Bruce Brown, TOR vs. ORL

SF/SG Julian Strawther, DEN vs. PHI

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $12k, FD: $12.7k | vs. PHI

While there are a few stud players on this five-game slate, it is no surprise that Jokic stands above them all. He is a combined one rebound and two assists away from having ripped off nine straight triple-doubles ahead of tonight’s match-up. Jokic shouldn’t have any issues against the Joel Embiid-less 76ers, and while Philly has allowed the fewest FPPG to centers L20Games, they head in ranking a subpar 23rd versus starting centers L5Games. Even if this game trends toward a blowout (DEN -13.5), you know you’ll be getting an extremely high floor out of Jokic regardless of whether he plays full minutes or not.

C Wendell Carter Jr., ORL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $5.9k | at TOR

With Goga Bitadze (concussion protocol/out) missing the last three games and Mo Wagner suffering that season-ending knee injury in late December, Wendell Carter has had a chance to reclaim a primary role with the Magic and he hasn’t disappointed. Over the last three games as a starter, Carter has logged at least 32 minutes in each contest while scoring no fewer than 30.75 DKFP/29.30 FDFP. And he most recently erupted for 49.75 DKFP/51.10 FDFP in the Magic’s last game versus Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets on Sunday. Overall, Carter is averaging a solid 1.14 FPPM L3Games and will now draw a favorable match-up versus a Raptors team that checks in at 27th versus starting centers L20Games.

Other Centers to Consider

C Anthony Davis, LAL vs. WAS (Currently questionable)

C Deandre Ayton, POR at MIA

C Jakob Poeltl, TOR vs. ORL

C Adem Bona, PHI at DEN (Only if Drummond/Yabusele are out + Bona starts)

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Nikola Jokic MORE than 30.5 Fantasy Score (1^st Half)

Wendell Carter Jr. MORE than 6.5 Points (1^st Half)

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!