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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler & Shannon

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

A wild Wednesday slate awaits! With the Bucks at Pelicans game getting postponed due to snowy/icy conditions in the area, we’ll be left with a six-game main slate on DraftKings and an eight-game main slate on FanDuel, which includes the two late match-ups in the 10 o’clock ET window. It’s another fairly active day with an injury report that has plenty of moving parts. Assuming all of the “doubtful” designations turn to “out”, the Nets look like they could be down to a nine-man rotation. The Mavericks could also be very shorthanded tonight, pending the availability of all of their “questionable” players. So keep a particularly close eye on those two teams. Let’s lock and load! Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

• Pistons: None

• Hawks: T. Young - Probable, J. Johnson - Questionable, Z. Risacher - OUT, L. Nance Jr. - OUT

• Suns: B. Beal - Questionable, J. Nurkic - OUT

• Nets: C. Johnson - Doubtful, C. Thomas - OUT, D. Russell - OUT, B. Simmons - Doubtful, Z. Williams - OUT, T. Watford - OUT

• Timberwolves: D. DiVincenzo - OUT

• Mavs: L. Doncic - OUT, D. Lively II - OUT, K. Thompson - Questionable, Q. Grimes - Questionable, N. Marshall - Questionable, J. Hardy - OUT, D. Powell - OUT

• Hornets: B. Miller - OUT, T. Mann - OUT

• Grizzlies: M. Smart - OUT, J. LaRavia - Doubtful

• Cavs: E. Mobley - OUT, C. LeVert - Questionable, I. Okoro - OUT

• Rockets: J. Smith Jr. - OUT

• Jazz: J. Clarkson - OUT, B. Sensabaugh - OUT, J. Juzang - OUT, C. Williams - OUT, M. Potter - OUT

• Thunder: Jal. Williams - Questionable, C. Holmgren - OUT, I. Hartenstein - OUT

Late Game Injury Report (FanDuel Main Slate Only)

• Warriors: J. Kuminga - OUT, D. Green - OUT, K. Anderson - OUT, B. Podziemski - OUT, G. Payton II - Questionable

• Kings: None

• Celtics: K. Porzingis - Questionable, J. Holiday - Questionable, A. Horford - Questionable

• Clippers: J. Harden - Questionable, K. Leonard - OUT, N. Powell - OUT, I. Zubac - OUT, N. Batum - Questionable, K. Dunn - OUT

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Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Ja Morant, MEM | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.6k | vs. CHA

This play may feel a bit risky but I do believe we’re going to see a monster game out of Morant sooner rather than later, and I’m looking to bank on that happening tonight. Morant has missed plenty of time with various injuries this season but he is now off the injury report entirely and has logged at least 30 minutes (and as many as 37 minutes) in the last four games he has played. His production is down to 1.20 FPPM L5Games, perhaps due to some tougher match-ups against the Rockets and Timberwolves -- Memphis has played both of those teams twice apiece within the L5Games, and both rank in the top seven in DEFRTG. But Morant has averaged a stellar 1.48 FPPM at home this season and gets a more favorable match-up versus the Hornets tonight. The Grizzlies lead the slate by a considerable margin with a huge 126.3 implied team total and, if Morant can get up to around 32-35 minutes in this game, I could see him popping for 50+ FP fairly easily.

PG Darius Garland, CLE | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.6k | at HOU

There aren’t many standout guard options out of the mid-range but you can rarely go wrong with Darius Garland, who brings a strong floor to lineups night in and night out while having plenty of 45+ FP upside. Garland has averaged a steady 1.27 FPPM L20Games, and he should receive a moderate usage bump with Evan Mobley (calf/out) set to miss his third game in a row. From a pure basketball standpoint, this game between the Cavs (-2.5) and Rockets looks like one of the best match-ups of the evening.

SG/SF Nick Smith Jr., CHA | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.1k | at MEM

We’re going to Chalk City on this one but, assuming Nick Smith grabs a third consecutive start in place of the injured Brandon Miller, who is out indefinitely with a torn ligament in his wrist, then this is looking like a can’t-miss value. Smith has started each of the last two games for Charlotte and has put up DFS scores of 27.75 DKFP/25.10 FDFP across 30 minutes versus the Mavs and 24.25 DKFP/21.50 FDFP in 26 minutes versus the Bulls. He has owned usage rates of 21.1% and 27.4% in those two contests. Smith has averaged a hair under an FPPM over the last month and if he’s going to continue to play around 30 minutes as a starter, there are very few ways in which he’ll burn you at these basement-level price points.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC vs. UTA (Boost if Jal. Williams is out)

PG Cade Cunningham, DET at ATL

PG/SG Anthony Edwards, MIN at DAL

PG/SG Donovan Mitchell, CLE at HOU

SG Desmond Bane, MEM vs. CHA

PG Spencer Dinwiddie, DAL vs. MIN

PG/SG Cason Wallace, OKC vs. UTA (Boost if Jal. Williams is out)

PG Tyus Jones, PHX at BKN (Preferred if B. Beal is out)

SG/SF Grayson Allen, PHX at BKN (Preferred if B. Beal is out)

PG Mike Conley, MIN at DAL

PG Rob Dillingham, MIN at DAL

PG Reece Beekman, BKN vs. PHX (Major boost if starting)

FanDuel Main Slate Only

PG James Harden, LAC vs. BOS (Currently questionable)

PG Steph Curry, GSW at SAC

PG/SG Kevin Porter Jr., LAC vs. BOS

SG Moses Moody, GSW at SAC

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Kevin Durant, PHX | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.6k | at BKN

Whether it be due to injuries or their game getting postponed, there is a lack of appealing high-end forwards to choose from on this slate. But KD is another player who will typically bring a high floor to the table with a decent chance of popping for 55+ FP. We can mostly throw the Suns’ last game out the window, as most of their players underperformed en route to a 26-point blowout loss to the juggernaut Cavs on Monday. The Suns should have no problem putting up points and other big stats against this shorthanded Nets team today, and the 11.5-point spread honestly isn’t too large so this game could stay relatively competitive. Durant went for 30 points and 47.0 DKFP/44.6 FDFP versus the Nets earlier this season and I would imagine that’s around what we should expect out of him tonight. Durant has also seen a team-leading +3.74% USG% boost with both Jusuf Nurkic (out) and Bradley Beal (questionable) off the floor this season, so if Beal is ultimately ruled out, KD should have a better shot at posting a ceiling-type performance. The Nets also check in at 23rd versus starting power forwards L20Games.

PF/C Naz Reid, MIN | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.9k | at DAL

Reid has poured in at least 34.5 DKFP/36.1 FDFP in three consecutive games and he is now up to a sturdy 1.26 FPPM L5Games. The Timberwolves have run a tight nine-man rotation across their last two games and Reid has very apparently been their primary sixth-man. He has even closed several games with the starters in the fourth quarter recently. Reid will also draw a plus match-up against the Mavs, who check in at 28th versus reserve power forwards L20Games. His DFS prices continue to creep up but, at a sub-$6k salary on both sites, Reid should remain firmly on the radar.

SF/PF Cam Whitmore, HOU | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.4k | vs. CLE

We have had Whitmore as a spotlighted value forward a couple of times recently and, for the most part, it has paid off. Even with Tari Eason back in the mix, Whitmore is putting up quality numbers off of the Rockets’ bench. He has played at least 20 minutes in each of the last five games while averaging 1.12 FPPM in that span. Whitmore has gone for 30+ FP in two of the last four games and projects for < 5% ownership tonight. I believe he makes for a quality leverage play against some of the other higher-owned value forwards on the slate, and the Rockets may especially need his scoring capabilities versus the high-powered Cavs offense.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM vs. CHA

SF/SG Amen Thompson, HOU vs. CLE

PF Tobias Harris, DET at ATL

SF Jaden McDaniels, MIN at DAL

PF Santi Aldama, MEM vs. CHA

SF/SG Luguentz Dort, OKC vs. UTA (Boost if Jal. Williams is out)

SF/PF Ausar Thompson, DET at ATL

SF/PF Ryan Dunn, PHX at BKN

SF/PF Tosan Evbuomwan, BKN vs. PHX

SF/SG Max Strus. CLE at HOU

SF/SG Isaiah Joe, OKC vs. UTA (Preferred if starting)

FanDuel Main Slate Only

SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, SAC vs. GSW

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Mark Williams, CHA | DK: $7k, FD: $8k | at MEM

With the Hornets shipping backup center Nick Richards to the Suns, we’ve finally gotten to see what Mark Williams can do when handling a typical starter’s minutes. He has averaged an elite 1.47 FPPM this season but has been limited to 22.5 Min/gm across his 17 games played. However, over the last four games, he is up to 32.0 Min/gm and he is pouring in fantasy points at a blazing rate, to the tune of 1.60 FPPM in that stretch. If the Hornets (+12) manage to keep this game close, we should see another big-time game out of Williams this evening as the Grizzlies have checked in at a subpar 23rd versus starting centers L20Games.

C Onyeka Okongwu, ATL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.5k | vs. DET

At a certain point, Okongwu’s superior play off of the bench was going to have to force the Hawks’ hand in replacing Clint Capela with him in the starting lineup. It finally happened on Monday against the Knicks as Okongwu drew his first start of the season while Capela was sent to the bench. After ripping off three straight games of at least 45.75 DKFP/44.10 FDFP, Okongwu’s start against the Knicks (31.75 DKFP/32.80 FDFP) wasn’t as explosive but, now that we know he’s more likely to play closer to 30-plus minutes as a starter, we can still trust him as a go-to center option on this slate. The Pistons have been stout versus the position, ranking 5th versus starting centers L20Games, but we’ve seen Okongwu excel in tougher match-ups this season while only playing around 20 minutes off of the bench previously.

Other Centers to Consider

C Alperen Sengun, HOU vs. CLE

C Daniel Gafford, DAL vs. MIN

C Jalen Duren, DET at ATL

C Rudy Gobert, MIN at DAL

C Jaylin Williams, OKC vs. UTA

C Isaiah Stewart, DET at ATL

FanDuel Main Slate Only

C/PF Domantas Sabonis, SAC vs. GSW

C Mo Bamba, LAC vs. BOS

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!