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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler & Shannon

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

A busy eight-game Thursday slate arrives this evening. Today’s injury report, predictably, has plenty of moving pieces to it. However, a rare anomaly is occurring in the game between the Kings and Nuggets as there are zero notable players with injury designations! Elsewhere, we’ll need to keep a close eye on the latest breaking news. There are also three games tipping off in the 10 o’clock ET window, so make sure you’re prepared to late swap/adjust to any news that drops after the initial games get underway! Best of luck!

Update: The MIA/MIL game has been pushed back one hour to 8:30 ET due to the Bucks’ travel delays leaving New Orleans.

Today’s Key Injuries

• Trailblazers: D. Ayton - Questionable, A. Simons - Questionable, T. Camara - Questionable, D. Clingan - OUT, K. Murray - Questionable

• Magic: F. Wagner - Questionable, J. Suggs - OUT, C. Anthony - Questionable, G. Bitadze - OUT, J. Howard - Questionable, G. Harris - Questionable

• Raptors: I. Quickley - OUT, O. Agbaji - Questionable

• Hawks: T. Young - Probable, J. Johnson - Probable, C. Capela - OUT, Z. Risacher - OUT, L. Nance Jr. - OUT

• Heat: T. Herro - Probable, J. Butler - OUT

• Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable, K. Middleton - Probable, AJ Green - OUT

• Mavs: L. Doncic - OUT, D. Lively II - OUT, K. Thompson - OUT, N. Marshall - OUT, J. Hardy - OUT, D. Powell - OUT

• Thunder: C. Holmgren - OUT, I. Hartenstein - OUT, I. Joe - OUT

• Kings: None

• Nuggets: None

• Bulls: C. White - Doubtful, A. Dosunmu - Questionable

• Warriors: S. Curry - Questionable, J. Kuminga - OUT, D. Green - OUT, T. Jackson-Davis - Questionable, K. Looney - Questionable, K. Anderson - OUT, B. Podziemski - Questionable, L. Waters - Questionable

• Celtics: None

• Lakers: A. Davis - Probable, L. James - Probable

• Wizards: M. Brogdon - OUT

• Clippers: I. Zubac - Questionable, K. Dunn - OUT, J. Miller - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.7k | vs. DAL

There isn’t a high-end guard on this slate that jumps off the page more than SGA. Yes, he’s the most expensive guard on the slate, but that is beside the point. Gilgeous-Alexander had a career performance last night, dropping 54 points and 81.5 DKFP/83.1 FDFP against the Jazz while operating under an unthinkable 51.9% USG%. Insane. It certainly helped that the Jazz, the NBA’s second-worst defensive team, kept things close as 17-point underdogs. Tonight’s opponent, the Mavs, are 13-point underdogs to this juggernaut OKC team, and they have ranked 27th versus starting PGs L20Games. Both teams in this contest are on the second leg of a back-to-back, so I’m not “dinging” SGA too much due to logging 37 minutes last night. If Dallas keeps this game competitive, SGA should be in line for another big night; of course, we can’t expect anything close to what he did yesterday but, at worst, we know that we’re probably getting a 50 FP floor out of him. 

PG/SG Malik Monk, SAC | DK: $7k, FD: $8k | at DEN

Monk has been on a heater, to say the least, and he heads into tonight’s game having scored at least 42.25 DKFP/42.6 FDFP in seven of his last eight games, and he’s averaging a strong 1.25 FPPM in that span. Not only is he shooting it well during this stretch (23.6 PPG), but he is dishing out 7.9 APG while also racking up plenty of steals. While this game does have a fairly large spread (DEN -8.5), this could easily be the game of the night as both teams head in fully healthy and there is a huge 241.5 over/under pinned on this contest. Since Monk has been running the offense at times, alongside De’Aaron Fox, I don’t think it’s accurate to label him a pure shooting guard. But, if we go into the Team DEF tool on LineStar, we’ll find that the Nuggets rank 27th versus starting guards (PGs & SGs) over their last 20 games, so there are zero issues with the match-up.

SG/SF Bruce Brown, TOR | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.5k | at ATL

There will be more apparent cheap options to choose from once additional injury news emerges but, for now, Bruce Brown is looking like a quality affordable target. He’s been popping up in trade discussions recently, so the Raptors could be incentivized to continue giving him decent minutes off of the bench to potentially raise his trade value. After missing much of the season with injury and debuting on December 29th, Brown had arguably his best game of the season on Tuesday, supplying a 15/5/5 (w/ a steal) line across 25 minutes versus the Magic -- good for 31.25 DKFP/30.50 FDFP. He heads into tonight averaging 1.15 FPPM L5Games. The Raptors (12th in pace) also get a sizable pace-up boost from the Hawks (2nd in pace). There is some volatility attached here but Brown could have another ~30 FP in his bag tonight.

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Other Guards to Consider

PG James Harden, LAC vs. WAS

PG/SF Scottie Barnes, TOR at ATL

PG/SG Tyler Herro, MIA at MIL

PG/SG Jamal Murray, DEN vs. SAC

PG Russell Westbrook, DEN vs. SAC

PG/SG Cason Wallace, OKC vs. DAL

SG/SF Buddy Hield, GSW vs. CHI (Only if starting again)

PG Lonzo Ball, CHI at GSW (Preferred if A. Dosunmu is out)

SG/SF Corey Kispert, WAS at LAC

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF Paolo Banchero, ORL | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.7k | vs. POR

I’m a touch hesitant on this play but also highly encouraged by the fact that Banchero hit 32 minutes in Orlando’s last game on Tuesday -- it was his first game cracking the 30-minute threshold since returning from an oblique injury on January 10th, which had kept him out of the Magic’s previous 34 games. Banchero also took on a monster 41.3% USG% in that game on Tuesday, and his usage rate has been over 38% across the six games played since his return. He’ll draw a quality individual match-up as the Trailblazers are 25th versus starting power forwards L20Games. The Magic could also be getting some key pieces back in the lineup today as Franz Wagner and Cole Anthony are both listed as questionable. Wagner would have the biggest effect to Banchero’s massive usage rate but, even if Wagner is able to suit up, he could be fairly limited considering he hasn’t played since December 6th.

SF/PF Andrew Wiggins, GSW | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.3k | vs. CHI

Andrew Wiggins is one of those guys that I have sworn off playing on multiple occasions in my time playing NBA DFS, but I can’t help but be intrigued by him today. Outside of a complete dud against the Celtics on Monday (a day where the entire team struggled, ultimately losing by 40 points at home), Wiggins has been quite solid as of late. He’s rocking a 27.4% USG% L5Games and has supplied at least 36.75 DKFP/36.0 FDFP in three of his last four. The Warriors are still missing some pieces right now so Wiggins could easily end up being the No. 2 scoring option behind Steph Curry. You also can’t help but like the match-up versus the Bulls who check in at 3rd in pace, 24th in DEFRTG, and 26th versus starting PFs L20Games. Given his low-$6k price points, I’ll be cautiously optimistic about Wiggins’ shot at another productive game tonight.

Update: Steph Curry is now questionable tonight due to a knee injury. If he sits, Wiggins would receive a significant boost.

SF/PG Alex Caruso, OKC | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. DAL

I believe we could consider Isaiah Joe (illness/out) a fairly under-the-radar injury today and his absence could open up a larger role for a guy like Alex Caruso. Joe was also out last night and, while it didn’t lead to a major minutes boost for Caruso, he did make the most of his 20 minutes off of the bench, posting a 7/3/5 line with four steals (26.25 DKFP/29.10 FDF). Those four steals did a lot to buoy Caruso’s final DFS scores but, considering OKC is on a back-to-back, it feels like those 20 minutes he played last night should be about his minutes floor tonight. Caruso has averaged a respectable 0.97 FPPM L5Games and, when he gets those steals and blocks going, he can rapidly stack up the fantasy points. As mentioned in the Bruce Brown spotlight, there will certainly be more apparent value plays to choose from closer to lock, but Caruso looks like a solid cheap option for the time being.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL vs. MIA

PF LeBron James, LAL vs. BOS

SF/SG Zach LaVine, CHI at GSW

SF DeMar DeRozan, SAC at DEN

PF/C Alexandre Sarr, WAS at LAC

PF/C Nikola Jovic, MIA at MIL

SF/SG Christian Braun, DEN vs. SAC

SF/SG Julian Strawther, DEN vs. SAC

SF Gary Payton II, GSW vs. CHI

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Kel’el Ware, MIA | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.1k | at MIL

Ware was quickly stripped of his power forward eligibility on DraftKings even though he’s now starting alongside center Bam Adebayo in the lineup… but that’s fine. As if it wasn’t already, the secret is out on Kel’el Ware following his first career start against the Trailblazers on Tuesday. He logged a season-high 39 minutes while supplying a 20-point, 15-rebound double-double with two blocks (45.25 DKFP/44.0 FDFP). His DFS salaries have seen a sizable increase but he is still looking like a strong value and, assuming he holds onto this starting role, I fully expect Ware to be priced as a $7k to $8k player soon. He has averaged 1.18 FPPM on the season and is up to 1.26 FPPM L5Games, so it’s quite easy to see how he should hit value if he plays another 30+ minutes tonight. The match-up will get more difficult against Giannis and the Bucks but, while he will be popular, it’s just too tough to look past Ware on this slate.

C Onyeka Okongwu, ATL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.4k | vs. TOR

Okongwu didn’t exactly ‘wow’ with his performance in his second start of the season last night, though he did fall just one point shy of a double-double. However, he also played just 27 minutes and now Clint Capela (knee/out) will be sitting out the second leg of the back-to-back. Considering the Hawks are also without backup center Larry Nance Jr., who hasn’t played this calendar year due to a hand injury, Okongwu should have an easier pathway to 30+ minutes tonight. He lands a quality match-up versus a Raptors team that is 27th versus starting centers L20Games and has allowed the 8th most points in the paint per game this season.

Other Centers to Consider

C Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. SAC

C Anthony Davis, LAL vs. BOS

C Domantas Sabonis, SAC at DEN

C Nikola Vucevic, CHI at GSW

C Ivica Zubac, LAC vs. WAS (Currently questionable)

C Daniel Gafford, DAL at OKC

C Wendell Carter Jr., ORL vs. POR

C Jakob Poeltl, TOR at ATL

C Brook Lopez, MIL vs. MIA

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!