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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler & Shannon

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

We’ll switch gears going from yesterday’s monster Monday slate down to a quiet four-game Tuesday slate. I won’t lie and say this is the sexiest four-game slate ever but we should hopefully see some mostly competitive match-ups as three of the four games currently possess a spread of six points or lower. If small slates aren’t your cup of tea, you won’t have to wait long for a heftier slate to come back around as tomorrow’s schedule is pretty loaded with 11 games on the board. For now, we’ll tackle today’s short slate and do our best to find the right pieces to the puzzle. Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

• Lakers: A. Davis - Probable, L. James - Probable, R. Hachimura - Probable, G. Vincent - OUT, J. Vanderbilt - OUT

• 76ers: J. Embiid - OUT, P. George - OUT, G. Yabusele - Probable, A. Drummond - OUT, C. Martin - OUT, KJ Martin - OUT

• Rockets: J. Smith Jr. - OUT, T. Eason - OUT, C. Whitmore - Questionable

• Hawks: J. Johnson - OUT, B. Bogdanovic - OUT

• Jazz: L. Markkanen - OUT, W. Kessler - OUT, J. Collins - OUT, J. Clarkson - OUT, J. Juzang - OUT, C. Williams - OUT

• Warriors: J. Kuminga - OUT, D. Green - OUT

• Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable, B. Portis - OUT, K. Middleton - Probable, AJ Green - OUT

• Trailblazers: D. Ayton - Questionable

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Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Damian Lillard, MIL | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.8k | at POR

Lillard played the first 11 seasons of his NBA career in Portland prior to coming over to Milwaukee last season and this will be the second time the star guard has visited his old stomping grounds in an opposing uniform. I wouldn’t go as far as to pin the “revenge game” narrative on Lillard today as he and the Portland organization seemed to part on good terms. Still, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect him to have a little extra motivation in the back of his mind this evening. Either way, he heads into this game in some outstanding form, scoring at least 49.75 DKFP/50.0 FDFP in five of his last six games while averaging a sturdy 1.46 FPPM in that stretch. We will have the back-to-back factor to worry about (Lillard played 41 minutes last night) and Portland has been pretty stout against starting PGs, ranking 9th versus the position L20Games. Nonetheless, it’ll be worth it to see if the iron is still hot on Lillard’s form and the sportsbooks currently have a fairly close 5.5-point spread on this match-up in favor of the Bucks.

SG Kelly Oubre Jr., PHI | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.2k | vs. LAL

Oubre is one of those players who has burned me many times over the years but he’ll need to operate as a primary scorer for the 76ers tonight who are, once again, very shorthanded. If we go to the LineStar usage matrix and mark all of the currently injured 76ers as “out”, we’ll see that Oubre has averaged +5.31 more FP per 32 minutes in those splits. He also heads in on the heels of two excellent games where he has averaged 22.0 PPG, 12.5 RPG, 3.0 APG, and 2.0 STL/gm across 38.0 Min/gm -- both of those games were played with Paul George (out tonight) in the lineup. He is scoring just over an FPPM over his L5Games and, in what should be a competitive game (PHI +4), Oubre should be on the floor for 35-40 minutes tonight.

PG/SG Brandin Podziemski, GSW | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.8k | vs. UTA

Podziemski returned from a 12-game injury absence last week and has been a solid spark off of the Warriors’ bench in the two games since. Most recently, Podziemski went for a 17/3/5 (+ two steals) stat line in 24 minutes against the Lakers on Saturday, and he played the final eight minutes in the fourth quarter in a game that the Warriors would eventually lose by 10 points. These Warriors’ rotations can be tricky to predict but it is worth pointing out that Podziemski has taken on a +2.9% USG% boost when both Jonathan Kuminga and Draymond Green (both out) have been off the floor this season -- which is the second-highest USG% increase on the team in those splits. The Jazz have had the second-worst defense in the NBA this season and they have also ranked 29th versus bench guards over their L20Games. Podziemski went for 27.25 DKFP/28.5 FDFP against the Jazz in 25 minutes off of the bench earlier this season, and he’ll have a good shot at posting up a similar performance against Utah tonight.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI vs. LAL

PG/SG Dyson Daniels, ATL vs. HOU

SG Jalen Green, HOU at ATL

PG/SG Anfernee Simons, POR vs. MIL

SG/SF Khris Middleton, MIL at POR

PG/SG Isaiah Collier, UTA at GSW

SG/SF Gary Trent Jr., MIL at POR

SG Eric Gordon, PHI vs. LAL

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/PG Amen Thompson, HOU | DK: $8k, FD: $8.8k | at ATL

Thompson supplied yet another big game in last night’s road upset over the Celtics, putting up a 33/9/4 stat line with a block and a steal apiece across 42 minutes of action -- it was a performance that netted him 54.25 DKFP/54.80 FDFP. Thompson’s 33 points last night was a new career-high and he accounted for the game-winning bucket with under a second left in the final quarter. Thompson, in his second NBA season, is just 22 years old so I’m not sweating the back-to-back factor much with him. And Houston will draw an excellent match-up against an Atlanta team that is 2nd in pace and a below-average defense.

SF/PF Deni Avdija, POR | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.6k | vs. MIL

Avdija has put up strong numbers ever since stepping into an expanded role in late December. He posted arguably his best all-around performance of the season on Sunday against the mighty OKC Thunder, flirting with a triple-double with a 28/8/8 stat line (plus a block and steal apiece), resulting in 54.0 DKFP/51.60 FDFP. Avdija is now up to 1.19 FPPM and 40.8 DKFP/39.9 FDFP over his last five games. Though he’ll be contending with Giannis Antetokounmpo tonight, he had no major issues against the Bucks when these teams first met this season back on Jan. 4th -- Avidja went for 19 points, 14 rebounds, four assists, and three steals in that contest (48.0 DKFP/43.8 FDFP) during a 105-102 upset win. His DFS salaries continue to climb the ladder but Avdija is playing more like a guy who should be in the $8k range, so there is still some potential meat on the bone at his current price points.

SF/PF Ricky Council IV, PHI | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. LAL

The 76ers’ injury report is always in flux but, given their current status, I would expect Ricky Council IV to pick up a spot start tonight. During his last two games as a starter (Jan. 18th and 19th), Council provided 38.75 DKFP/38.80 FDFP in 36 minutes versus the Pacers and 27.5 DKFP/27.3 FDFP in 29 minutes played versus the Bucks. If, for whatever reason, Council isn’t in the starting lineup tonight, I’ll be more inclined to look past him but, by all indications, he should be in the starting five this evening with the potential to play 30+ minutes.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL at POR

PF LeBron James, LAL at PHI

SF/PF Andrew Wiggins, GSW vs. UTA

SF/PF De’Andre Hunter, ATL vs. HOU

SF/SG Toumani Camara, POR vs. MIL

SF/SG Svi Mykhailiuk, UTA at GSW

PF/C Kyle Filipowski, UTA at GSW

SF/SG Moses Moody, GSW vs. UTA

SF/PF Justin Edwards, PHI vs. LAL

SF/SG Cam Whitmore, HOU at ATL (Currently questionable)

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Anthony Davis, LAL | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.4k | at PHI

AD erupted for 42 points and 23 rebounds (77.25 DKFP/74.60 FDFP) at sub-10% ownership in last night’s game versus the Hornets -- his usage rate was at a colossal 44.9% on the night as well. He played 37 minutes and, of course, the Lakers are now on the tail end of a back-to-back. But Davis carries a “probable” designation at the moment so it doesn’t seem like he’s in any danger of sitting out the B2B. As long as fatigue isn’t much of a factor, Davis should have his way against the 76ers, who are without their top two centers, Joel Embiid and Andre Drummond. Currently, Guerschon Yabusele is in line to operate as Philly’s primary center and, while he is a high-motor player, he’s also undersized for the position at 6’8”. Overall, the 76ers have ranked 23rd versus starting centers over their L10Games and I believe we could see AD go for another 60+ FP tonight, as he has done in three of his last four games.

C Drew Eubanks, UTA | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.9k | at GSW

The Jazz injury report was released while I was in the process of writing today’s newsletter and it includes several key players -- namely, Walker Kessler, Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, and Jordan Clarkson are all ruled out for this evening’s action. Kessler’s absence should lead to another spot start for Drew Eubanks at center. His start against the Bucks last night didn’t go over too well but, relative to his DFS price points, I’d hardly consider it a total dud as he still ended with 20.0 DKFP/20.5 FDFP in 22 minutes. Eubanks was much better in the start prior against the Pelicans where he put up a 17/7/1 stat line with four blocks and a steal (37.25 DKFP/40.90 FDFP) across 25 minutes. So he’s certainly capable of returning massive value on his <$5k DFS salaries and he’ll draw a middle-of-the-pack match-up versus the Warriors, who check in at 14th versus starting centers L20Games. If, for some reason, Eubanks is not in the starting lineup, I’ll have much less interest.

Other Centers to Consider

C Alperen Sengun, HOU at ATL

C Onyeka Okongwu, ATL vs. HOU

C Brook Lopez, MIL at POR

C Donovan Clingan, POR vs. MIL (Only if D. Ayton is out + Clingan starts)

C Quinten Post, GSW vs. UTA

C Steven Adams, HOU at ATL

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!