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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler & Shannon

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

A sizable nine-game slate rolls around this evening! There are also two more games in the later window between the Timberwolves/Suns (9 ET) and Thunder/Warriors (10 ET) but both DraftKings and FanDuel have elected to exclude those games from their respective main slates. But, if you’re hunting for some nightcap action, just a reminder that those games are on the schedule today. Every game on the main slate will have a tip-off time of 7 ET, 7:30 ET, or 8:00 ET, so news and starting lineups are going to be pouring out in a relatively short window of time. Fortunately, barring further additions, the injury report is fairly clean today… by nine-game slate standards. Most of the players who are banged up have already been ruled out. Hence, there are just a handful of “questionable” designations that I would consider to be at least moderately impactful -- the three biggest names being Jayson Tatum, Josh Hart, and Coby White. Let’s dive in! Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

• Nets: C. Thomas - OUT, C. Johnson - OUT, N. Clowney - OUT

• Hornets: L. Ball - OUT, M. Williams - OUT, J. Green - OUT, T. Mann - OUT, C. Martin - OUT

• Raptors: I. Quickley - OUT, G. Dick - Questionable, K. Olynyk - Questionable

• Wizards: M. Brogdon - OUT, A. Sarr - OUT

• Pistons: None

• Pacers: A. Nembhard - Questionable

• Bulls: Z. LaVine - OUT, C. White - Questionable

• Celtics: J. Tatum - Questionable, A. Horford - Questionable, S. Hauser - Questionable

• Cavs: D. Garland - OUT, D. Wade - OUT, C. LeVert - OUT, S. Merrill - Questionable, I. Okoro - OUT

• Heat: J. Butler - OUT

• Kings: None

• 76ers: J. Embiid - OUT, P. George - OUT, A. Drummond - OUT, C. Martin - Questionable, KJ Martin - OUT

• Nuggets: None

• Knicks: J. Hart - Questionable

• Clippers: K. Dunn - OUT

• Spurs: None

• Mavs: L. Doncic - OUT, D. Lively II - OUT, N. Marshall - Questionable, M. Kleber - OUT, D. Powell - OUT, D. Exum - Doubtful (would be season debut)

• Pelicans: B. Ingram - OUT, J. Hawkins - OUT, H. Jones - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Dejounte Murray, NOP | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.7k | vs. DAL

There is no shortage of high-caliber guards on this slate but I’m going to start things off with one who I believe won’t be overly popular but brings ample upside to the table. Dejounte Murray heads into this game averaging a stout 1.34 FPPM L5Games alongside 22.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 7.8 APG, 1.6 STL+BLK/gm, and he has accounted for a 28.3% USG% in that span. His steals/blocks have been slightly down but he has been playing above his season averages in every other category. Murray has been a bit better at home this season, where he’s averaging +7.9% more FPPG, and he draws a home match-up tonight versus the Mavs. The Pelicans just played the Mavericks at home two weeks ago and, in a close, high-scoring game, Murray supplied a 30/7/7 stat line and 54.25 DKFP/52.9 FDFP. Dallas has also ranked 26th versus starting PGs L10Games, so we should expect Murray to find further success against them tonight. The one-point spread in this game is the slimmest on the slate while the 233.5 O/U checks in as the second-highest.

PG Jordan Poole, WAS | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.5k | vs. TOR

You never truly know what you’re getting out of Jordan Poole on any given night but he has flashed plenty of DFS upside throughout this season and has a couple of 50+ FP performances on his resume within his last six games. He does own a team-leading +2.82% USG% boost when both Malcolm Brogdon and Alex Sarr (both out tonight) have been off the floor this season so look for him to put up around 20 shots tonight. Both teams in this match-up also rank top 10 in pace and bottom six in DEFRTG, which is the sort of DFS atmosphere we like to see. As long as he played low-to-mid 30s minutes, we should get a strong game out of Poole this evening. That would be more likely in a non-blowout and, given the 5.5-point spread here, the sportsbooks are anticipating a fairly close game between these two teams.

PG Ty Jerome, CLE | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4.7k | at MIA

Ty Jerome will undoubtedly be one of the most popular plays on this slate but he’s simply a can’t-miss value target. The Cavs will be down their starting point guard, Darius Garland, this evening. That would open the door for Caris LeVert to draw a potential spot start, but he is also out tonight, missing his sixth consecutive game with a wrist injury. So, by all indications, Jerome should be in the starting lineup tonight. Jerome has only started two previous games this season but, in those games, he has averaged a superb 26.5 PPG, 1.39 FPPM, and 38.1 DKFP/34.3 FDFP. Overall, Jerome has averaged 1.17 FPPM across his 43 games played this season so, even if he doesn’t replicate the same sort of success from those previous games as a starter, he should still find a way to comfortably pay off these mid-$4k salaries since he should play around 30-32 minutes tonight. Miami has also ranked dead last versus starting PGs L10Games, so there are zero match-up concerns as well.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI vs. SAC

PG Jalen Brunson, NYK vs. DEN (Boost if J. Hart is out)

PG/SG Donovan Mitchell, CLE at MIA

PG/SG D’Angelo Russell, BKN at CHA

SG/SF Mikal Bridges, NYK vs. DEN

SG Kelly Oubre Jr., PHI vs. SAC

PG/SG Spencer Dinwiddie, DAL at NOP

SG/SF Nick Smith Jr., CHA vs. BKN

SG/SF Bruce Brown, TOR at WAS

PG Craig Porter Jr., CLE at MIA

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/PG Scottie Barnes, TOR | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.9k | at WAS

Barnes is not too far off from averaging a triple-double over his last five starts -- 19.4 PPG, 9.6 RPG, and 7.2 APG to go alongside 3.2 STL+BLK/gm. His ability to stuff the stat sheet gives him a great floor most nights and, as discussed in the Jordan Poole spotlight, this is looking like an excellent game to target given both teams’ fast pace and lack of defense. Barnes doesn’t exactly follow the traditions of playing any one single position as most would consider him a “forward-guard” combo. But he will typically operate closer to the paint, so he generally plays as a forward, which is good news considering the Wizards check in at 30th versus starting forwards L10Games.

PF Miles Bridges, CHA | DK: $8.2k, FD: $7.7k | vs. BKN

I can’t envision many scenarios where Miles Bridges doesn’t dominate the usage for Charlotte tonight. They’re down several key starters and role players (LaMelo Ball, Mark Williams, Josh Green, Cody Martin, and Tre Mann -- all out), and Brandon Miller underwent season-ending wrist surgery last week. While it is a very small sample size of just 29 minutes, with all of those players off of the court this season, Bridges has seen a massive +12.1% USG% boost and +20.6 FP per 32 minutes increase. Don’t expect any high-scoring to come out of this game, given its slate-low 206 O/U. But there is a narrow 2.5-point spread here, in favor of the Hornets, and I’d be fairly surprised if Bridges doesn’t put up at least 20 shots tonight.

SF/PF Josh Okogie, CHA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.4k | vs. BKN

Sticking to the Hornets’ frontcourt, we’ll have a highly viable cheap option to consider in Josh Okogie. Okogie came over from the Suns in the Nick Richards trade and he has been playing a key role with Charlotte over their last few games -- a role that should only increase given all of the players they have sidelined tonight. Across his last three games (all off of the bench), Okogie has supplied an excellent 1.29 FPPM while playing 25.3 Min/gm. In the one game where he exceeded 30 minutes (1/24 vs. POR), he put up 40.0 DKFP/39.5 FDFP. Okogie is now expected to start tonight in place of the injured Josh Green, which should likely result in another 30+ minute workload. He’s going to be incredibly chalky but, much like the aforementioned Ty Jerome, he just represents some can’t-miss value potential.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF Zion Williamson, NOP vs. DAL

PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE at MIA

SF RJ Barrett, TOR at WAS

SF/SG Jaylen Brown, BOS vs. CHI (Boost if J. Tatum is out)

PF Pascal Siakam, IND vs. DET

PF PJ Washington, DAL at NOP

SF/PF OG Anunoby, NYK vs. DEN

PF Kyle Kuzma, WAS vs. TOR

PF Keegan Murray, SAC at PHI

SF/SG Max Strus, CLE at MIA

PF/C Chris Boucher, TOR at WAS

SF/PF Justin Edwards, PHI vs. SAC (Only if starting again)

PF DaQuan Jeffries, CHA vs. BKN

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Daniel Gafford, DAL | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.5k | at NOP

There are certainly several superstar centers worth considering on this slate but we’ll lead this section off with a $7k option. There is a bit of volatility baked into playing Daniel Gafford, but the upside that he has shown since stepping in for the injured Dereck Lively II over these last seven games is also undeniable. Gafford is averaging a massive 1.55 FPPM L5Games with 18.8 PPG, 11.0 RPG, and 4.4 STL+BLK/gm in that span. Gafford’s first game as a starter in this recent stretch since Lively went down came against this same Pelicans team exactly two weeks ago. Gafford would go on to put up 27 points, 12 rebounds, two assists, and two blocks in 30 minutes in that game, resulting in 50.0 DKFP/49.4 FDFP. Opposing bigs have found plenty of success in this match-up as the Pelicans have allowed the second most FPPG to starting centers over their last 20 games. Gafford’s DFS salaries continue to climb, but there is still plenty of potential meat on the bone.

C Jonas Valanciunas, WAS | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.2k | vs. TOR

Nothing has changed about J-Val’s ability to be a huge FPPM guy -- he has averaged a stellar 1.38 FPPM across 45 games this season. However, he has been mostly played off of the bench, which has limited his minutes to just 19.4 Min/gm. With rookie Alex Sarr out with an ankle injury, that opens the door for Valanciunas to pick up a spot start and play heavier minutes. In his last five games as a starter, Valanciunas has put up a mammoth 1.61 FPPM across 24.8 Min/gm and averaged 40.0 DKFP/38.5 FDFP. While those aren’t huge minutes by any stretch, it is enough time for a player like Valanciunas to easily return value on these mid-$5k DFS price points. It also doesn’t hurt that the Raptors have ranked 28th versus starting centers L20Games.

Other Centers to Consider

C Nikola Jokic, DEN at NYK

C Domantas Sabonis, SAC at PHI

C Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK vs. DEN

C Kristaps Porzingis, BOS vs. CHI (Boost if J. Tatum and/or A. Horford are out)

C Jakob Poeltl, TOR at WAS

C Kel’el Ware, MIA vs. CLE

C Jalen Duren, DET at IND

C Moussa Diabate, CHA vs. BKN

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!