Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter/X & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

NBA DFS Today w/ Tyler Wiemann

🏀Tyler’s NBA (and other sports) prop bets can be found on the LineStar YouTube Shorts page!🏀

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Another sizable slate hits the board on Thursday with eight games lined up! This slate does not feature many lofty totals – only one game with an over/under above 230 points – but there are quite a few competitive matchups expected with seven games pinned with spreads of ≤ 6.5 points. Injuries always play a major factor in NBA DFS, but that’s especially true today. Several impact players currently carry Q-tags, and even more have already been ruled out, so keeping an eye on the latest injury news will be extra vital for this slate. So, let’s lock in because this is sure to be a hectic one! Best of luck!

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Today’s Key Injuries 🚑

^{Note: NBA injury reports can be fickle and often update throughout the day. Be sure to stay up-to-date on all injury news leading up to tip-off as the list below may be a bit outdated by the time you’re reading this.}

^{Additional Note: Players who have yet to play this season will be excluded from the injury report, unless they have either a probable, questionable, or doubtful injury designation, with some amount of chance to make their season debut. Injured players who have been out for an extended period of time and/or are not expected to play for a month-plus will also be excluded.}

• Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo – OUT, K. Porter Jr. – OUT, C. Anthony – Questionable, G. Harris – OUT

• Wizards: T. Young – OUT, A. Sarr – Questionable, M. Bagley III – OUT, T. Vukcevic – OUT

• Kings: R. Westbrook – OUT, K. Murray – OUT, M. Monk – Questionable

• 76ers: J. Embiid – Probable, P. George – Probable, Q. Grimes – Questionable

• Rockets: A. Sengun – Questionable, T. Eason – OUT, D. Finney-Smith – OUT

• Hawks: J. Johnson – Questionable, O. Okongwu – OUT, K. Porzingis – OUT, Z. Risacher – OUT

• Heat: T. Herro – OUT, N. Powell – Probable, K. Ware – Probable, D. Mitchell – OUT

• Bulls: J. Giddey – Questionable, J. Smith – Probable, T. Jones – OUT, Z. Collins – OUT

• Hornets: B. Miller – Probable, G. Williams – OUT

• Mavs: A. Davis – OUT, N. Marshall – OUT, B. Williams – Questionable, K. Thompson – Probable, D. Gafford – Questionable

• Nets: N. Clowney – OUT, E. Demin – OUT, C. Thomas – OUT, Z. Williams – OUT

• Nuggets: N. Jokic – OUT, J. Murray – Probable, A. Gordon – OUT, J. Valanciunas – Probable, C. Johnson – OUT, C. Braun – OUT

• Pistons: C. LeVert – OUT

• Suns: D. Booker – OUT, J. Green – OUT, C. Gillespie – Questionable

• Thunder: Jal. Williams – OUT, A. Mitchell – OUT, C. Wallace – Questionable, A. Caruso – OUT

• Timberwolves: R. Gobert – Questionable, M. Conley – OUT

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

SG Anthony Edwards, MIN | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.7k | vs. OKC

Anthony Edwards stands out as one of the top high-end options at shooting guard, bringing a strong combination of floor and ceiling at his current price points. He’s been in excellent form recently, logging at least 45 DKFP in four of his last five games while averaging 33.0 points on nearly 25 shot attempts per contest over that stretch. The matchup isn’t an easy one on paper against Oklahoma City’s elite defense, but Edwards has consistently risen to the challenge in these spots. He’s already faced the Thunder twice this season and delivered 35+ real points in both meetings, resulting in DKFP totals of 49.5 and 57.0. OKC also hasn’t been overly restrictive against opposing shooting guards, allowing the 7th-most FPPG to the position over their last 20 games. Even on the second night of a back-to-back, Edwards remains firmly in play as a high-end spend with legitimate ceiling upside. This matchup is also the final one of the evening, so he very much operates as a late-night hammer. Just keep an eye on any surprising news, as Edwards was a late addition to the injury report (and ultimately sat out) the last time Minnesota was on the second leg of a back-to-back.

SG Kyshawn George, WAS | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.6k | vs. MIL

George has been one of the most productive guards in the league over the last week-and-a-half, and the numbers back it up. Over his last five starts, he’s averaged 19.4 PPG, 8.0 RPG, and 6.4 APG while handling a 27.6% USG% and producing an elite 1.42 FPPM, which has translated to 45.9 DKFP/gm in just over 32 minutes per night. He’s stuffing the stat sheet in every category, including defensive production, and the role has clearly stabilized with Washington willing to let him operate as a primary ball handler. The matchup only adds fuel to the fire. Milwaukee has ranked 29th in DvP versus starting shooting guards over their last 10 games, and this game projects to stay competitive with the Wizards checking in as just 1.5-point home underdogs. That should keep George locked into full minutes and high involvement once again. He may also put up a few additional shots if center Alex Sarr (illness/questionable) is unable to suit up. Given the recent form, usage profile, and friendly matchup, George sets up as one of the stronger mid-range guard plays on the slate with both floor and upside working in his favor.

PG/SG Dennis Schroder, SAC | DK: $4.8k, FD: $4.7k | at PHI

Russell Westbrook (foot/out) will miss his first game of the season, which should place Schroder back in the starting lineup. Schroder has averaged a serviceable 0.99 FPPM and 22.5% USG% on the season, but those figures bump up to 1.06 FPPM and 24.8% USG% with Westbrook off the floor. He has previously shown 40+ FP upside as a starter playing 30+ minutes earlier in the season, so if the Kings (+11.5) can keep things competitive, Schroder has an excellent chance to pay off these sub-$5k salaries.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC at MIN

PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI vs. SAC

PG Amen Thompson, HOU at ATL (Boost if Sengun is out)

PG Ryan Rollins, MIL at WAS

SG Coby White, CHI vs. MIA (Preferred if Giddey is out)

PG Dyson Daniels, ATL vs. HOU

SG Kon Knueppel, CHA at DAL

PG/SG Tre Johnson, WAS vs. MIL

PG/SG Ayo Dosunmu, CHI vs. MIA (Boost if Giddey is out)

PG/SG Brandon Williams, DAL vs. CHA (Currently questionable)

SG Luguentz Dort, OKC at MIN

PG Dru Smith, MIA at CHI

PG Ben Saraf, BKN at DEN

PG Tyrese Martin, BKN at DEN

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/SG Kevin Durant, HOU | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9k | at ATL

Durant sets up extremely well on this slate – the Rockets are on the second night of a back-to-back, but so are the Hawks, which mitigates some fatigue concerns. Houston will draw the largest pace-up spot of the day, as they check in at 27th in pace and head into a matchup with Atlanta, who ranks 2nd, and that matters a lot for KD. In up-tempo environments this season, Durant has averaged roughly 35% more FPPG. The matchup itself is also ideal. Atlanta has struggled badly on the wing, ranking dead last in DvP versus starting small forwards this season, and they’ve also allowed the second-most FPPG to shooting guards, giving Durant multiple paths to produce depending on how Houston deploys him. There’s also some additional upside tied to the injury report. With Alperen Sengun (ankle/questionable) off the floor this season, Durant has seen a +7.2% USG% boost, so Sengun’s status will be worth monitoring closely. Between the pace environment, matchup, Durant’s multi-position eligibility, and his potential for additional usage if Sengun sits out, he profiles as one of the safest high-end plays on the slate with clear ceiling appeal if this game stays close.

PF/C Bobby Portis, MIL | DK: $7k, FD: $6.6k | at WAS

With Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf/out) sidelined for the first time with his newest injury on Tuesday, the Bucks chose to insert Bobby Portis into the starting lineup instead of keeping him in his usual role off the bench. While the Bucks went on to lose to the 76ers in blowout fashion, Portis still had a productive game, posting 17 points, 12 rebounds, eight assists, and a steal across 36 minutes while netting 46.5 DKFP. The matchup now gets much more appealing against a Wizards team that ranks 29th in DEFRTG, 7th in pace, and 26th in DvP versus starting power forwards. Assuming he maintains the same sort of role he had on Tuesday, Portis is still too cheap on both sites given the amount of 40+ FP upside he can likely provide.

SF/SG Terance Mann, BKN | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4k | at DEN

Outside of Michael Porter Jr., I don’t think too many people are going to regularly love the idea of rostering Nets players. That being said, Brooklyn will be operating with a thinner rotation tonight as Noah Clowney, Egor Demin, Cam Thomas, and Ziaire Williams have all been ruled out. With those players off the floor this season, Mann has averaged 0.82 FPPM and a 22.0% USG% – those aren’t remarkable numbers, but still decent increases compared to his baseline 0.75 FPPM and 13.7% USG%. He should be locked into around 28-30 minutes this evening and doesn’t need to do much to pay off his bottom-of-the-barrel price tags. He faced this same Nuggets team earlier this month and posted 26.0 DKFP in 26 minutes on the court. A similar result would represent some excellent point-per-dollar value.

Other Forwards to Consider

SF Michael Porter Jr., BKN at DEN

SF Brandon Miller, CHA at DAL

SF/PF Peyton Watson, DEN vs. BKN

SF/SG Grayson Allen, PHX vs. DET

SF/PF PJ Washington, DAL vs. CHA

PF Andrew Wiggins, MIA at CHI

PF Jabari Smith Jr., HOU at ATL (Boost if Sengun is out)

PF/C Naz Reid, MIN vs. OKC (Boost if Gobert is out)

SF/PF Kyle Kuzma, MIL at WAS

PF Matas Buzelis, CHI vs. MIA

SF/SG Kelly Oubre Jr., PHI vs. SAC

SF Ausar Thompson, DET at PHX

PF Khris Middleton, WAS vs. MIL

PF Simone Fontecchio, MIA at CHI

PF/C Danny Wolf, BKN at DEN (Boost if starting)

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.9k | vs. SAC

Embiid continues to trend in the right direction and looks much closer to his dominant, MVP-level form over the past couple of weeks. Over his last five starts, he’s averaged 32.4 PPG, 9.8 RPG, and 5.4 APG while carrying a massive 34.8% USG% and producing an elite 1.56 FPPM, which has translated to 55.5 DKFP/gm in 35+ minutes. The scoring has been especially stable, with 29+ real points in five straight games and at least 46 DKFP in each, highlighted by his 72.25 DKFP triple-double against Houston. The matchup also checks out, as Sacramento has struggled against opposing centers, ranking 26th in DvP versus starting Cs this season and allowing the 4th-most FPPG to the position over their last 20 games. With Embiid probable and playing at home, there’s little reason to expect a step back here. There is some blowout concern in this matchup, with Philly being 11.5-point favorites, but if this game stays competitive, Embiid’s combination of volume, efficiency, and expanding assist numbers give him one of the safest floors and highest ceilings on the entire slate.

C/PF Mouhamed Gueye, ATL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. HOU

With Onyeka Okongwu (face/out) ruled out earlier today, and Kristaps Porzingis (Achilles/out) set to miss an 11th consecutive game, Mouhamed Gueye becomes a clear value option on this slate. He should snag a spot start as the Hawks’ primary center and currently projects close to 30 minutes. Gueye has put up a pedestrian 0.84 FPPM this season but has ticked up to 1.07 FPPM over his last five games as a starter. In his last start (Jan. 7th vs. NOP), he broke loose for a 10/11/6 stat line which included four steals and two blocks across 31 minutes – it was a performance that was good for 44.2 DKFP. The matchup versus Houston is much more challenging, but if he is going to play 28+ minutes, there aren’t too many scenarios in which Gueye flops at these sub-$4k price points.

Other Centers to Consider

C/PF Alperen Sengun, HOU at ATL (Currently questionable)

C Bam Adebayo, MIA at CHI

C Alex Sarr, WAS vs. MIL (Currently questionable)

C Nikola Vucevic, CHI vs. MIA

C Jonas Valanciunas, DEN vs. BKN

C Myles Turner, MIL at WAS

C Moussa Diabate, CHA at DAL

C Clint Capela, HOU at ATL (Preferred if Sengun is out)

C Christian Koloko, ATL vs. HOU

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we have rolled out Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks, UnderDog Fantasy, and other prop apps/sites!

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter/X or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!