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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Picks 1/3 | Digging For Upside on a Busy Friday Slate
Top DFS Plays & Pick 'Ems for Today's NBA Action!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
Depending on your preferred site, you’ll be looking at a seven-game (DraftKings) or nine-game (FanDuel) Friday main slate. If the Vegas lines are to be believed, we should have mostly competitive match-ups (there is no spread larger than 7.5 points) and a fair amount of high-scoring environments (five games with 230+ over/unders). Time will tell how it all shakes out, but let’s do our best to find the right pieces to the puzzle. Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries
Hornets: L. Ball - Questionable, B. Miller - Questionable, C. Martin - Questionable, T. Mann - OUT, D. Jefferies - Questionable
Pistons: J. Ivey - OUT, S. Fontecchio - OUT
Magic: P. Banchero - OUT, F. Wagner - OUT, A. Black - Questionable, T. Queen - Probable, G. Harris - OUT
Raptors: RJ Barrett - Doubtful
Celtics: J. Brown - Questionable, K. Porzingis - Questionable
Rockets: A. Thompson - OUT, T. Eason - Doubtful, J. Landale - Questionable
Wizards: B. Coulibaly - OUT, M. Bagley III - OUT
Pelicans: Z. Williamson - OUT, B. Ingram - OUT
Knicks: J. Brunson - Questionable, M. McBride - Questionable
Thunder: C. Holmgren - OUT, A. Caruso - OUT
Cavaliers: I. Okoro - OUT, S. Merrill - Doubtful
Mavericks: L. Doncic - OUT, PJ Washington - Questionable, N. Marshall - OUT, M. Kleber - Questionable
Spurs: J. Sochan - OUT
Nuggets: A. Gordon - OUT
Late Game Injury Report (FanDuel Main Slate Only)
Grizzlies: J. Morant - OUT, Z. Edey - Questionable, S. Aldama - OUT, J. LaRavia - Questionable, M. Smart - OUT, V. Williams Jr. - OUT, B. Clarke - Questionable
Kings: K. Murray - Doubtful
Hawks: T. Young - Questionable, J. Johnson - Questionable, B. Bogdanovic - Questionable, L. Nance Jr. - OUT
Lakers: A. Davis - Questionable, G. Vincent - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Wemby & Jokic meet tonight for the first time this season!
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG Cade Cunningham, DET | DK: $9.9k, FD: $9.7k | vs. CHA
Cunningham has had a few suboptimal performances lately but that has allowed his DFS salaries to dip back under the $10k mark, making him an intriguing high-end guard play on this slate. Jaden Ivey suffered an ugly leg injury in Wednesday’s game and will be out of commission for quite a while. Cunningham should pick up some of the slack that Ivey leaves behind, and he has seen a moderate +2.54% USG% boost with Ivey off the court this season. In the three games that Ivey has missed entirely this season (11/13 at MIL, 12/16 vs. MIA, and 12/19 vs. UTA), Cunningham posted DFS scores of 71.25 DKFP/68.90 FDFP, 66.75 DKFP/59.20 FDFP, and 58.0 DKFP/59.30 FDFP. If we can get a result similar to any one of those games out of him this evening, I believe most of us would be fairly content with that. He’ll draw a strong match-up versus a Hornets team that is 28th versus starting PGs L20Games.
SG/SF Trey Murphy III, NOP | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.5k | vs. WAS
Murphy has been a primary scorer -- at times, THE primary scorer -- for the Pels while Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram remain sidelined. He has posted a usage rate of over 25% L5Games leading to 25.8 PPG, a 1.18 FPPM average, and 40.8 DKFP/39.1 FDFP per game. Murphy’s DFS prices continue to creep up but, given his current level of play and overall involvement, he is still looking like a bit of a bargain. And we’ll of course have zero issues with the match-up -- the Wizards are 4th in pace and 27th in DEFRTG.
PG/SG Stephon Castle, SAS | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.4k | at DEN
Castle has seen reduced minutes since moving out of the starting lineup but he’ll either have the chance to regain a starting spot or, at the very least, pick up additional minutes this evening due to the absence of Jeremy Sochan (back/out). Sochan was injured in the first half of the Spurs’ previous game on Tuesday and didn’t return to the game. Castle ended up starting the second half of that game, ending with 15 points, a +18 plus/minus, and 29.5 DKFP/30.8 FDFP. That would all seem to bode well for his chances of landing in the starting lineup tonight. The Nuggets have ranked dead last versus starting SGs L20Games and Castle is simply too cheap, especially at a $3,400 price point on DraftKings.
Other Guards to Consider
PG LaMelo Ball, CHA at DET (Currently questionable)
PG Dejounte Murray, NOP vs. WAS
PG/SG Jamal Murray, DEN vs. SAS
PG Darius Garland, CLE at DAL
PG Immanuel Quickley, TOR vs. ORL
PG Russell Westbrook, DEN vs. SAS
SG/SF Malik Beasley, DET vs. CHA
PG/SG Miles McBride, NYK at OKC (Currently questionable - Preferred if J. Brunson is out)
PG/SG Cameron Payne, NYK at OKC (Only if J. Brunson AND M. McBride are both out)
PG Ajay Mitchell, OKC vs. NYK
FanDuel Main Slate Only
PG Trae Young, ATL at LAL (Currently questionable)
SG/SF Austin Reaves, LAL vs. ATL (Boost if A. Davis is out)
SG/SF Desmond Bane, MEM at SAC
PG/SG Keon Ellis, SAC vs. MEM (Only if starting again)
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
SF/PF Josh Hart, NYK | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.9k | at OKC
Hart L5Games: 17.2 PPG, 13.0 RPG, 7.2 APG, and 2.2 STL+BLK/gm across 40.4 Min/gm. That has all averaged out to 1.25 FPPM and 50.7 DKFP/47.4 FDFP per game. His last two games have both been triple-doubles where he played 86 of a possible 96 minutes. OKC is not a team I typically target players against as they’re 1st in DEFRTG by a fairly comfortable margin, but Hart is also not a guy that is overly reliant on scoring and he has excelled in plenty of lower-scoring game environments this season. Pending further injury news, there isn’t a particularly enticing high-end forward play on this slate so Josh Hart feels as good as any option, and I doubt he carries much ownership.
PF/C Wendell Carter Jr., ORL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.1k | at TOR
Wendell Carter Jr.’s DFS outcomes have an extensive range but his volatility is baked into his price points. The Magic are just trying to stay afloat until they get their two stars (Banchero & F. Wagner) back in the mix and Carter isn’t exactly equipped to pick up all of the slack those two players leave behind. That said, he did match a season-high in minutes played on Wednesday (34) and supplied a solid 15-point, eight-rebound effort which included two steals, a block, and an assist. If he manages to play 30+ minutes again, I would imagine he pushes for 6x value (or better) against a Raptors team that ranks 6th in pace and 26th in DEFRTG.
SF/PF Ausar Thompson, DET | DK: $4k, FD: $4.6k | vs. CHA
Thompson has stepped into the starting rotation in each of the last two games that Jaden Ivey (leg/out) has missed, so he’ll be the odds-on favorite to earn some additional starts, beginning tonight, while Ivey remains sidelined. Thompson’s December 16th start against Miami was easily his best performance of the season -- he posted a 19/9/1 stat line with four steals and a block while taking on a 30.2% USG% and netting 40.75 DKFP/43.30 FDFP in 27 minutes. Thompson got a delayed start to the season after dealing with blood clots, so the Pistons have rightfully been cautious with his minutes. But he has been playing mid-20s minutes off the bench lately so 24-28 minutes would be a reasonable expectation, assuming he’s starting. Thompson has averaged 1.01 FPPM this season and 1.13 FPPM as a starter, so it’s easy to see how he could end up being a solid value play tonight.
Other Forwards to Consider
SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS at HOU (Preferred if J. Brown and/or K. Porzingis are out)
PF Miles Bridges, CHA at DET (Boost if L. Ball and/or B. Miller are out)
SF/SG Dillon Brooks, HOU vs. BOS
SF/PF Herbert Jones, NOP vs. WAS
PF Tobias Harris, DET vs. CHA
SF/PF Keldon Johnson, SAS at DEN
SF/PF Dean Wade, CLE at DAL
SF/PF Cam Whitmore, HOU vs. BOS
FanDuel Main Slate Only
SF/PF LeBron James, LAL vs. ATL (Boost if A. Davis is out)
PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM at SAC
PF/C Trey Lyles, SAC vs. MEM
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $12.2k, FD: $13k | vs. SAS
Jokic versus Wemby is always some must-see TV and this will be the first time these two superstars have faced off this season. After a brief lull (by his lofty standards), Jokic has been turning it back on lately, posting three monster triple-doubles within his last four games and scoring at least 72.75 DKFP/66.90 FDFP in those games (and that was without playing any fourth-quarter minutes in the Nuggets’ last game). Jokic is also back at home where he is averaging a triple-double this season (28.7 PPG, 12.2 RPG, 10.1 APG) and this game features one of the highest totals on the day (238 O/U).
C Mark Williams, CHA | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.3k | at DET
It took overtime for it to happen but Mark Williams finally got past the 30-minute threshold in the Hornets’ last game on Monday, and it resulted in a huge 49.0 DKFP/51.4 FDFP performance. Considering Williams has averaged an outstanding 1.51 FPPM this season, it’s no surprise his first game hitting 30+ minutes was a big one. I’m sure the Hornets, who are used to dealing with injuries to their primary players, would prefer to keep Williams to around 24-28 minutes most nights, but he’s still a good bet to return value at these current salaries if that remains the case.
Other Centers to Continue
C Victor Wembanyama, SAS at DEN
C Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK at OKC (Boost if J. Brunson is out)
C Goga Bitadze, ORL at TOR
C Jarrett Allen, CLE at DAL
C Jonas Valanciunas, WAS at NOP
C Isaiah Stewart, DET vs. CHA
FanDuel Main Slate Only
C/PF Domantas Sabonis, SAC vs. MEM
PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Cade Cunningham MORE than 49.5 Fantasy Score
Trey Murphy III MORE than 36.5 Fantasy Score
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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!