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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler & Shannon

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Thursday will bring us a decent little five-game slate to dissect. One thing you may notice right away is the lack of top-end superstars within today’s match-ups, and several of the better players on this slate (who haven’t already been ruled out) currently have “questionable” designations heading into tonight. So it may be a day to favor a more balanced approach in DFS lineup building. We’ll see how it all shakes out but, for now, let’s see if we can land on some of the optimal targets! Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

• Lakers: A. Davis - OUT, L. James - Questionable, R. Hachimura - Probable, D. Finney-Smith - Questionable, G. Vincent - Questionable

• Wizards: M. Brogdon - OUT, A. Sarr - OUT

• Hawks: T. Young - Probable, C. Capela - OUT, B. Bogdanovic - OUT, J. Johnson - OUT (done for the season so he will be excluded from future injury reports)

• Cavs: D. Wade - OUT, C. LeVert - OUT, S. Merrill - Questionable, I. Okoro - OUT

• Timberwolves: D. DiVincenzo - OUT, M. Conley - Questionable

• Jazz: J. Juzang - OUT, C. Williams - OUT

• Rockets: A. Sengun - Questionable, J. Smith Jr. - OUT, S. Adams - Questionable

• Grizzlies: J. Morant - Questionable, M. Smart - OUT, V. Williams Jr. - OUT

• Magic: J. Suggs - Questionable, G. Harris - Probable

• Trailblazers: J. Grant - Questionable

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG/SG Anthony Edwards, MIN | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.2k | at UTA

As touched on in the intro, there aren’t many superstars on this five-game slate, and the bigger names, like LeBron James, Trae Young, Alperen Sengun, and Ja Morant, are all currently questionable to play tonight. That leaves Anthony Edwards at the top as one of the few star players who heads in without any availability concerns. He’s coming off of a huge game against the Suns last night where he poured in 33 points and 59.25 DKFP/59.90 FDFP while dominating the usage (35.5% USG%). He did play a hefty 40 minutes in that game but Edwards has generally been immune to the back-to-back factor this season. He should bring a high floor with ample upside to DFS lineups tonight as the Timberwolves go on the road to face a Jazz team that owns the second-worst defense in the NBA. The Jazz also check in at 29th versus starting SGs L10Games and provide a sizable pace-up boost for the Timberwolves (UTA: 13th in pace, MIN: 26th in pace).

PG Austin Reaves, LAL | DK: $8.5k, FD: $7.8k | at WAS

The Lakers will be without Anthony Davis tonight following an abdominal strain sustained on Tuesday against the 76ers. LeBron James (foot/questionable) is also iffy to play. Regardless of LeBron’s availability, Austin Reaves should take on a heavier workload tonight. Excluding guys who have played minimal minutes, Reaves leads the Lakers with a +5.1% USG% boost and +7.0 FP per 32 minutes increase when AD has been off the floor this season -- those splits for Reaves rise to +15.5% USG%/+18.4 FP per 32 minutes when both AD and LeBron have been off the floor, though that comes in a small 57-minute sample size. In the last two games that Davis has missed entirely (Jan. 17th vs. BKN & Jan. 2nd vs. POR), Reaves popped off 54.25 DKFP/55.10 FDFP and 46.5 DKFP/44.10 FDFP. And, of course, the match-up doesn’t get much better as the Wizards, who are on the second leg of a B2B, have allowed the most FPPG to PGs L20Games, rank dead last in DEFRTG, and play at the 4th fastest pace in the NBA (LAL: 23rd in pace). If this game remains competitive for four quarters, as most Lakers’ games tend to be regardless of opponent, then Reaves should end the night with a big stat line.

PG Ty Jerome, CLE | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.1k | vs. ATL

Jerome was major chalk on last night’s slate and, even though he didn’t get the start in place of the resting Darius Garland, he did end up being “good chalk” as he went on to supply 36.25 DKFP/35.10 FDFP in 30 minutes off of the bench -- he was, in fact, an optimal play over on DraftKings. Garland will be back in action tonight but Jerome should still see some quality minutes, particularly with Caris LeVert ruled out for a seventh consecutive game and Sam Merrill questionable with an illness. Jerome has routinely closed out the fourth quarter with other Cavs starters and my guess is he’ll be in line to play around 24-28 minutes this evening. Considering he has averaged 1.17 FPPM L5Games and the Hawks play at the 2nd fastest pace in the NBA, that would be plenty of time for Jerome to put up another quality DFS score.

Other Guards to Consider

PG/SG Donovan Mitchell, CLE vs. ATL

SG Desmond Bane, MEM vs. HOU (Boost if J. Morant is out)

PG Darius Garland, CLE vs. ATL

SG Jalen Green, HOU at MEM (Boost if A. Sengun is out)

PG Jordan Poole, WAS vs. LAL (Might make more than one shot tonight)

PG/SG Anfernee Simons, POR vs. ORL

PG/SG Isaiah Collier, UTA vs. MIN

PG Mike Conley, MIN at UTA (Currently questionable)

PG/SG Luke Kennard, MEM vs. HOU (Preferred if J. Morant is out)

SG/SF Nickeil Alexander-Walker, MIN at UTA (Preferred if M. Conley is out)

PG Rob Dillingham, MIN at UTA (Boost if M. Conley is out)

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF Franz Wagner, ORL | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8k | at POR

It didn’t take Wagner long to get back up to speed following a 20-game layoff due to an oblique injury. Wagner returned to action last week and has seen his minutes rapidly increase, most recently playing 40 minutes in Monday’s double-OT loss to the Heat. Wagner got up to 30 minutes (in regulation) in the game prior, so it doesn’t seem as if he’s operating under any notable minutes restrictions. He has taken on team-leading usage rates in each of the three games since his return -- 44.8%, 34.3%, and 38.5%. This isn’t exactly a sexy match-up but if Wagner is going to continue to command these monster usage rates, he’s going to be a worthy DFS option on tonight’s small slate.

PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.2k | vs. ATL

Mobley is averaging a stout 1.34 FPPM over his L20Games and, after recently missing four games with a calf injury, he got up to 31 minutes in last night’s game, which is right on par with his season average. The Hawks have been a bit of an Achilles heel for the Cavs this season as they are responsible for two of their nine losses. Nonetheless, Mobley had a pair of huge games against them in the two previous meetings this season, averaging 54.1 DKFP/54.9 FDFP. The Hawks recently learned that they’ll be without one of their best defensive players, Jalen Johnson, for the remainder of the season, which potentially makes this an even stronger match-up for Evan Mobley tonight.

SF Jaden McDaniels, MIN | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6k | at UTA

McDaniels has been a nice source of value recently, averaging 36.8 DKFP/38.7 FDFP L5Games. He’s averaging a hair over an FPPM in that stretch while playing big minutes. His 36.8 Min/gm L5Games is a sizable uptick over his 31.0 Min/gm average on the season. As long as fatigue doesn’t end up playing a major factor (McDaniels played 37 minutes last night), then he sets up well against a porous Jazz defense that checks in at 23rd versus starting SFs L10Games.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF LeBron James, LAL at WAS (Currently questionable)

SF/PG Amen Thompson, HOU at MEM (Boost if A. Sengun is out)

PF/C Julius Randle, MIN at UTA

SF/PF Deni Avdija, POR vs. ORL

PF/C Naz Reid, MIN at UTA

SF/SG Toumani Camara, POR vs. ORL

SF/PF Rui Hachimura, LAL at WAS (Boost if LeBron is out)

SF/SG Max Strus, CLE vs. ATL

SF/PF Zaccharie Risacher, ATL at CLE

SF/SG Dalton Knecht, LAL at WAS

PF/C Jonathan Isaac, ORL at POR

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Deandre Ayton, POR | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.4k | vs. ORL

This slate is lacking on standout center options but I wouldn’t be opposed to rolling the dice on Ayton this evening. He’s been boom-or-bust the last couple of months but he has procured at least 39.75 DKFP/39.60 FDFP in his last three starts. He put up a big 21-point, 14-rebound double-double against Giannis and the Bucks on Tuesday, and it was encouraging to see him play 34 minutes in that game after missing the previous three contests with a knee injury. This isn’t a particularly good match-up as the Magic are 3rd in DEFRTG, 6th in opp points in the paint/gm, and they’ve ranked 1st versus starting centers L20Games. Regardless, Ayton has excelled in previous less-than-stellar match-ups in the past and he brings some nice leverage to lineups tonight based on his < 5% pOwn%.

C Rudy Gobert, MIN | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.4k | at UTA

Gobert is another fairly volatile center option but, again, we don’t have the luxury of choosing between guys like Nikola Jokic, Domantas Sabonis, Karl-Anthony Towns, etc. on this slate. And the slate’s top center, Alperen Sengun (calf/questionable) may be missing his first game of the season. Gobert has at least popped off for some big games recently, going for 37.0 DKFP/36.5 FDFP against Atlanta on Monday and 48.5 DKFP/50.3 FDFP against the Nuggets this past Saturday. As they do for every position, the Jazz represent a plus match-up for Gobert tonight as they have ranked 22nd versus starting centers L10Games.

Other Centers to Consider

C Alperen Sengun, HOU at MEM (Currently questionable)

C Onyeka Okongwu, ATL at CLE

C Jarrett Allen, CLE vs. ATL

C Jonas Valanciunas, WAS vs. LAL

C Steven Adams, HOU at MEM (Currently questionable - Preferred if Sengun is out)

C Jock Landale, HOU at MEM (Preferred if both Adams and Sengun are out)

C Richaun Holmes, WAS vs. LAL

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!