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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler & Shannon

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

We will close out the month of January with a six-game Friday slate! There is also one late game (PHX at GSW) tipping off at 10 o’clock ET but both DraftKings & FanDuel have chosen to exclude it from their main slates. This is shaping up to be a fairly high-scoring night with four of the six games pinned with over/unders of at least 232.5 points. The injury report also isn’t too crazy -- most injured players are either deemed “probable” or already ruled out. The two most impactful “questionable” designations on this slate belong to Zion Williamson and Immanuel Quickley. Let’s get into it!

Quick Note: I had an appointment run longer than expected today so this newsletter will be on the shorter side!

Today’s Key Injuries

• Clippers: K. Dunn - OUT, N. Batum - Questionable

• Hornets: L. Ball - OUT, M. Williams - OUT, J. Green - Probable, T. Mann - OUT, C. Martin - OUT

• Mavs: L. Doncic - OUT, D. Lively II - OUT, M. Kleber - OUT, D. Powell - OUT, D. Exum - Questionable (would be season debut)

• Pistons: I. Stewart - OUT

• Bulls: Z. LaVine - OUT, T. Horton-Tucker - Questionable

• Raptors: I. Quickley - Questionable, G. Dick - Questionable, K. Olynyk - Questionable, J. Shead - Doubtful

• Nuggets: None

• 76ers: J. Embiid - OUT, P. George - OUT, A. Drummond - OUT, C. Martin - OUT, KJ Martin - OUT

• Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable, D. Lillard - Probable, B. Portis - OUT, K. Middleton - Probable, AJ Green - Questionable

• Spurs: None

• Celtics: A. Horford - Probable, S. Hauser - Questionable

• Pelicans: Z. Williamson - Questionable, B. Ingram - OUT, J. Hawkins - OUT, D. Theis - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10k | vs. DEN

It should be the Tyrese Maxey show once again in Philly tonight as the 76ers continue to play without J. Embiid, P. George, and some key roleplayers. With the currently injured 76ers off the floor this season, Maxey has increased his usage rate by +5.7 percentage points. He is averaging 33.0 PPG and 1.42 FPPM over his last six games. Philadelphia is a sizable +9.5 underdog tonight but, if they keep this game close or even win, it’ll be largely due to what Maxey is able to do. The Nuggets have also ranked 25th versus starting PGs L10Games.

PG/SG Coby White, CHI | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.1k | at TOR

Zach LaVine, who is away from the team due to personal reasons, will need to have his team-leading 24.2% USG% distributed elsewhere this evening. Coby White is a prime candidate to take on a heavier workload and ranks second on the team with a +3.9% USG% boost with LaVine off the floor this season. White had a lackluster performance in his previous game but the good news is that he was able to play 31 minutes, even in a 22-point blowout loss to Boston, after missing the previous four games due to an ankle injury. At one point this season, White was a $7k+ player but he has now seen his DFS salaries reach, or close in on, season lows, depending on which site you’re looking at. He should be a worthy low-end mid-range option versus a Raptors team that is 9th in pace and 24th in DEFRTG.

SG/SF Bruce Brown, TOR | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.1k | vs. CHI

I’ll like this play a bit more if Immanuel Quickley and/or Gradey Dick (both are questionable) are ruled out. That said, Bruce Brown has still had some trade buzz brewing so the Raptors could continue to “showcase” him a bit by handing him a more significant workload ahead of next Thursday’s trade deadline. He has averaged a rock-solid 1.15 FPPM L5Games across 24.0 Min/gm and he will draw a plus match-up versus a Bulls team that has allowed the 5th most FPPG to bench players L20Games.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Cade Cunningham, DET vs. DAL

PG James Harden, LAC at CHA

PG Damian Lillard, MIL at SAS

PG/SG Jamal Murray, DEN at PHI

PG Josh Giddey, CHI at TOR

SG/SF Norman Powell, LAC at CHA

SG Kelly Oubre, PHI vs. DEN

PG/SG Spencer Dinwiddie, DAL at DET

SG Malik Beasley, DET vs. DAL

SG Eric Gordon, PHI vs. DEN

PG Kevin Porter Jr., LAC at CHA

SG/SF Brandon Boston, NOP vs. BOS

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.6k | at NOP

If you’re spending up at forward and want to play it safe, Giannis Antetokounmpo (DK: $11.5k, FD: $11.9k) is there, but perhaps it’s a solid buy-low night for Jayson Tatum. Given his lofty standards, Tatum has been on a pretty poor run lately and is only averaging 1.06 FPPM over his L5Games. However, the usage rate has still been nearly 28% in that span and he’s been playing solid minutes (36.2 Min/gm L5Games). This could be a “get right” match-up if the Pelicans (+11.5) can keep this game close. New Orleans has tanked 28th versus starting PFs L10Games, they’re 28th in overall DEFRTG, and Tatum smashed versus them earlier this month (Jan. 12th) to the tune of 38 points, 11 rebounds, and 58.25 DKFP/55.70 FDFP. In fact, that was the last time that Tatum truly popped off for a big game. Perhaps he replicates that success again tonight and he could very well check in at <10% ownership.

PF PJ Washington, DAL | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.4k | at DET

PJ Washington has been on a tear lately, racking up 1.30 FPPM and 46.7 DKFP/45.2 FDFP per game while playing nearly 36 minutes/gm over his L5Games. He gets a stellar match-up versus the Pistons, who have allowed THE most FPPG to starting power forwards L20Games.

PF/C Aaron Gordon, DEN | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.3k | at PHI

After missing nine games in late December/early January due to a calf injury, Aaron Gordon returned in a bench role and has mostly played low-20s minutes in that span. However, he re-claimed a starting role in the Nuggets’ most recent game and ended up playing 30 minutes. Gordon has averaged a respectable 0.93 FPPM this season so if he’s going to stick in the starting lineup and routinely begin to play 30+ minutes again, then he is clearly underpriced on this slate… especially at $4,400 on DraftKings.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL at SAS

SF/PG Scottie Barnes, TOR vs. CHI

PF Zion Williamson, NOP vs. BOS (Currently questionable)

SF/SG Trey Murphy III, NOP vs. BOS (Preferred if Zion is out)

SF/PF Harrison Barnes, SAS vs. MIL

PF Derrick Jones Jr., LAC at CHA

SF/PF Ricky Council IV, PHI vs. DEN

SF/SG Gary Trent Jr., MIL at SAS

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Ivica Zubac, LAC | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.7k | at CHA

This is a potential blowout with the shorthanded Hornets being 13-point home underdogs. But it’s also a potential smash spot for Zubac, who is coming off of two monster performances where he combined for 46 points, 38 rebounds, and seven assists. If he ends up playing his usual 32-35 minutes, Zubac should be able to have his way in the paint -- the Hornets are without starting center Mark Williams, to begin with, and have given up the second most FPPG to centers L20Games.

C Daniel Gafford, DAL | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.6k | at DET

Outside of Nikola Jokic and Victor Wembanyama (and Giannis Antetokounmpo on DraftKings), you could argue that Daniel Gafford has as high of a ceiling as any other player at the center position on this slate. It was just 11 days ago when he erupted for 71.75 DKFP/77.50 FDFP versus the Hornets, and he’s had a handful of big games since then, most recently dropping 50.0 DKFP/50.9 FDFP against the Pelicans on Wednesday. I’ll continue to buy in on Gafford’s upside even if the match-up isn’t ideal and with his DFS salaries gradually increasing.

Other Centers to Consider

C Nikola Jokic, DEN at PHI

C Victor Wembanyama, SAS vs. MIL

C Kristaps Porzingis, BOS at NOP

C Jakob Poeltl, TOR vs. CHI

C Jalen Duren, DET vs. DAL

C Moussa Diabate, CHA vs. LAC

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!