Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Picks 1/8 | Figuring Out Thursday's Small Four-Gamer!

DFS Plays & Props for Today's NBA Action!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter/X & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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🏀Tyler’s NBA (and other sports) prop bets can be found on the LineStar YouTube Shorts page!🏀

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

We’ve got a small four-gamer on tap this evening and, at first glance, it looks like a rather good one. Matchups look solid, high totals across the board, and there are only a handful of “questionable” injury designations that we’ll need to track. We’ll keep things short and sweet today and jump right into the action. Best of luck!

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Today’s Key Injuries 🚑

Note: NBA injury reports can be fickle and often update throughout the day. Be sure to stay up-to-date on all injury news leading up to tip-off as the list below may be a bit outdated by the time you’re reading this.

Additional Note: Players who have yet to play this season will be excluded from the injury report, unless they have either a probable, questionable, or doubtful injury designation, with some amount of chance to make their season debut. Injured players who have been out for an extended period of time and/or are not expected to play for a month-plus will also be excluded.

 

  • Pacers: A. Nembhard – Questionable, B. Mathurin – OUT, I. Jackson – OUT

  • Hornets: L. Ball – Probable, B. Miller – Probable, R. Kalkbrenner – OUT, T. Salaun – Probable, M. Plumlee – OUT

  • Heat: J. Jaquez Jr. – Probable

  • Bulls: J. Giddey – OUT, J. Smith – OUT, K. Huerter – Questionable, Z. Collins – OUT

  • Cavs: D. Garland – Questionable, J. Tyson – Probable, D. Wade – OUT, L. Nance Jr. – Questionable

  • Timberwolves: A. Edwards – Questionable

  • Mavs: PJ Washington – DOUBTFUL, B. Williams – Probable

  • Jazz: J. Nurkic – Questionable, A. Bailey – Questionable

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Keyonte George, UTA | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.5k | vs. DAL

Keyonte George continues to operate as Utah’s offensive engine and draws one of the best environments on the slate, with this game carrying a slate-high 241.5 O/U and close spread (UTA +4.5). He’s averaged 1.32 FPPM over the past month and has topped 49 DKFP in four of his last six games. The individual matchup is favorable, as the Mavericks have allowed the third-most FPPG to starting point guards over their last 20 games – George went for 53.75 DKFP when these teams met around three weeks ago. The only real concern is potential fatigue, as George logged 43 minutes in a narrow overtime loss against OKC last night, but if his minutes stay even close to his baseline (34.6 min/gm), he brings one of the higher ceilings at the position.

SG Kon Knueppel, CHA | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.9k | vs. IND

Knueppel is coming off a disappointing outing, but that looks like more of an outlier than a trend. He’s averaged a solid 1.11 FPPM over the past month, and rookie volatility is something that we’re willing to live with -- we know Knueppel has an established role in this offense and brings real upside for his price points. The matchup indicates this is a strong bounce-back spot, as Indiana has allowed the second-most FPPG to starting shooting guards over their last 20 games and continues to struggle defensively overall across their current 13-game losing streak. Knueppel already torched the Pacers earlier this season, dropping 28 points and 50 DKFP.

PG Brandon Williams, DAL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.9k | at UTA

Brandon Williams has carved out a steady role for Dallas, logging between 24 and 30 minutes in each of his last five games. He’s been productive in that stretch, averaging 1.15 FPPM and 31.0 DKFP/gm, which makes the $4.7k price tag on DraftKings particularly appealing. Utah is an ideal matchup, ranking dead last in DEFRTG and 29th against bench point guards this season. The Jazz are also playing on the second leg of a back-to-back after an overtime game last night. Williams profiles much better on DraftKings than FanDuel, where the salary gap changes the risk-reward profile.

Other Guards to Consider

SG Anthony Edwards, MIN vs. CLE (Currently questionable)

SG Donovan Mitchell, CLE at MIN (Boost if Garland is out)

PG/SG Tyler Herro, MIA at CHI

PG Andrew Nembhard, IND at CHA (Currently questionable)

PG Donte DiVincenzo, MIN vs. CLE (Boost if Edwards is out)

SG/SF Ayo Dosunmu, CHI vs. MIA

PG TJ McConnell, IND at CHA (Boost if Nembhard is out)

SG/SF Max Christie, DAL at UTA

PG/SG Collin Sexton, CHA vs. IND

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Anthony Davis, DAL | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.9k | at UTA

On a slate without many stud options, Anthony Davis remains one of the premier spend-up plays, especially on DraftKings where the $9,300 tag is hard to ignore. Even in a poor shooting effort last time out (7-for-23), he still delivered across the board with 19 points, 16 rebounds, and defensive stats, underscoring how high the floor remains when he’s healthy and playing big minutes. The matchup is favorable, as Utah has ranked 28th in DvP versus starting power forwards this season and is on the back end of a back-to-back. Davis profiles as a priority on DK but, due to the lack of studs, he is still very much viable on FanDuel despite the significantly higher price tag.

SF Brandon Miller, CHA | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.3k | vs. IND

Brandon Miller is listed as probable after missing last night’s action with a knee contusion (aka, a bruise), and assuming he’s active, he sets up well here. Since he didn’t play last night, he avoids the usual back-to-back concerns that apply to the rest of his teammates, which could help boost his workload and shot volume. Miller has been in excellent form lately, averaging 26.6 PPG, 1.26 FPPM, and 43.2 DKFP/gm over his last five games, with 40+ DKFP in four of those contests. If he’s cleared to go, he shouldn’t have any notable restrictions, he looks underpriced relative to recent production in a strong matchup against a struggling Indiana team.

PF Matas Buzelis, CHI | DK: $6k, FD: $6.5k | vs. MIA

Matas Buzelis has settled into a more consistent role lately due to injuries on the Bulls’ roster and the production has followed. Over his last five games, he’s averaged 20.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 2.0 STL+BLK/gm, a strong 1.18 FPPM, and a 27.2% USG%, which is excellent usage for this price tier and a notable step up from his 21.3% USG% on the season. He’s projected for around 30 minutes again this evening and draws a pace-friendly matchup against Miami, who continue to push tempo as the fastest-paced team in the NBA (while Chicago is not far behind at 3rd). The main concern is the back-to-back factor, as his production has dipped in those spots (he averages 20% less FPPM on second legs of B2Bs), but if the minutes hold, he still brings solid upside relative to salary.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF Lauri Markkanen, UTA vs. DAL

PF Pascal Siakam, IND at CHA

PF Julius Randle, MIN vs. CLE (Boost if Edwards is out)

SF Cooper Flagg, DAL at UTA

PF Miles Bridges, CHA vs. IND

PF/C Kyle Filipowski, UTA vs. DAL (Only if Nurkic is out)

PF/C Naz Reid, MIN vs. CLE

SF Aaron Nesmith, IND vs. CHA

SF/SG Naji Marshall, DAL at UTA

PF/C Jay Huff, IND vs. CHA (Preferred if starting again)

SF/PF Jarace Walker, IND vs. CHA

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Jusuf Nurkic, UTA | DK: $7k, FD: $6.5k | vs. DAL

Jusuf Nurkic has taken full advantage of the expanded role created by Walker Kessler’s season-ending injury, pushing into consistent starter-level minutes and producing at an elite per-minute rate. He’s averaged 1.43 FPPM over his last five games and has cleared 47.5 DKFP in three straight while playing 30+ minutes in each outing – he also has at least 43.75 DKFP in five of his last six. Nurkic is listed as questionable due to a toe injury, but if he suits up and handles his usual workload, this sets up as a strong spot. Dallas has struggled to contain opposing centers, allowing the fifth-most FPPG to the position over their last 20 games, keeping Nurkic firmly in play at these price points.

C Daniel Gafford, DAL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.5k | at UTA

Though he doesn’t log major minutes, Daniel Gafford continues to carve out a useful role for Dallas and should land in the 22–26-minute range again tonight. He doesn’t need huge run to pay off, as he’s averaged 1.24 FPPM over his last five starts while boosting his output with defensive stats (2.4 STL+BLK/gm L5Starts). The matchup plays into that strength, with Utah allowing the third-most opponent blocks per game (6.0) and the ninth-most steals (9.0). At just $4,300 on DraftKings, Gafford remains a strong salary-saving option even without a 30+ minute workload. The $5,500 tag on FanDuel makes him more of a tournament play.

Other Centers to Consider

C Nikola Vucevic, CHI vs. MIA

C Bam Adebayo, MIA at CHI

C Jarrett Allen, CLE at MIN

C Moussa Diabate, CHA vs. IND

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we have rolled out Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks, UnderDog Fantasy, and other prop apps/sites!

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter/X or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!