Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Shannon & Tyler

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

We’re back with another eight-game slate to conquer this evening! ESPN gets to showcase a banger of a doubleheader tonight between the Cavaliers vs. Thunder at 7 o’clock ET -- two teams that have a combined 61-9 record -- followed by a match-up between two of the biggest freaks in the sport, Wemby vs. Giannis at 9:30 ET. It should be a fun night of basketball so let’s see if we can crush it on the DFS and prop betting fronts! Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

• Thunder: C. Holmgren - OUT, A. Caruso - OUT, A. Mitchell - OUT

• Cavs: I. Okoro - Questionable, S. Merrill - Questionable

• Bulls: A. Dosunmu - OUT, T. Craig - OUT

• Pacers: T. Haliburton - Questionable, M. Turner - Questionable, A. Nesmith - OUT

• Wizards: J. Poole - OUT, M. Brogdon - OUT, K. Kuzma - Questionable, A. Sarr - Questionable, C. Carrington - Questionable, M. Bagley III - OUT, J. Davis - OUT

• 76ers: J. Embiid - OUT, P. George - OUT, A. Drummond - Questionable, K. Lowry - OUT, KJ Martin - OUT

• Pistons: A. Thompson - OUT, J. Ivey - OUT

• Nets: C. Johnson - OUT, C. Thomas - OUT, B. Simmons - Doubtful, D. Russell - OUT, D. Sharpe - Questionable, T. Watford - OUT

• Raptors: None

• Knicks: K. Towns - Questionable, M. McBride - Questionable

• Trailblazers: D. Avdija - Questionable, J. Grant - OUT, D. Clingan - Questionable

• Pelicans: Z. Williamson - OUT, D. Murray - Questionable, B. Ingram - OUT, T. Murphy III - OUT

• Clippers: K. Leonard - OUT

• Nuggets: N. Jokic - Questionable, A. Gordon - OUT

• Spurs: J. Sochan - OUT

• Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable, A. Jackson Jr. - Probable

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI | DK: $8.9k, FD: $8.9k | vs. WAS

Maxey has to be the high-end guard that sticks out the most on this slate. He’s the lone member of the 76ers’ “big three” that will be available tonight with Joel Embiid and Paul George both ruled out for this game. Maxey has played several games throughout this season without either of those guys available and he hasn’t necessarily always turned in a great DFS performance. But I believe we have to give the match-up quite a bit of weight. As most know by now, the Wizards play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA (4th) and are terrible defensively (29th in DEFRTG). They have ranked 29th versus starting PGs L10Games and 28th versus the position this season. The Wizards are also very depleted and could be without as many as four or five key starters and bench players. The 76ers are pinned with a 116.5 implied team total -- fourth-highest on the slate -- so if they meet or exceed expectations, Maxey will be responsible for a huge chunk of the damage done.

PG Anfernee Simons, POR | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.3k | at NOP

We’ve been hitting on Simons quite a bit recently, and I see no reason to stop now. He is up to 1.17 FPPM and 42.8 DKFP/39.0 FDFP L5Games. He has logged between 36 and 40 minutes in four of those games, the lone outlier being a 22-point blowout loss to the 76ers. The Trailblazers have mostly been keeping games competitive lately, in large part thanks to their high-scoring backcourt duo of Simons and Shaedon Sharpe. The sportsbooks are placing the Trailblazers as slight 2.5-point underdogs on the road against the shorthanded Pelicans tonight, so we should see another close game here. New Orleans is 28th on the season in DEFRTG and it’s also an excellent individual match-up for Simons as the Pels rank 29th versus starting PGs L20Games.

PG/SG Stephon Castle, SAS | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.6k | at MIL

I’m not sure how much interest I would have in him on FanDuel, but with Jeremy Sochan (back) out of the lineup tonight, Stephon Castle is projected to return to the starting lineup. Assuming that is the case, he’s too cheap at $3,400 on DraftKings. Castle has averaged a respectable 0.94 FPPM in his L5Games as a starter, and 0.87 FPPM on the season as a whole. Outside of Sochan, the Spurs are fairly healthy so I don’t believe Castle will play massive minutes. But I would project him for around 24-28 minutes as a starter tonight, which would be plenty of time for him to return value (on DraftKings).

Other Guards to Consider

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC at CLE

PG Cade Cunningham, DET at BKN

PG Tyrese Haliburton, IND vs. CHI (Currently questionable)

PG Josh Giddey, CHI at IND

PG Russell Westbrook, DEN vs. LAC

PG/SG Coby White, CHI at IND

PG/SG Shaedon Sharpe, POR at NOP

SG Kelly Oubre Jr., PHI vs. WAS

PG Kevin Porter Jr., LAC at DEN

PG Lonzo Ball, CHI at IND

PG TJ McConnell, IND vs. CHI (Preferred if Haliburton is out)

PG/SG Cason Wallace, OKC at CLE

SG/SF Julian Strawther, DEN vs. LAC

PG Jared Butler, WAS at PHI

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/PF Josh Hart, NYK | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8k | vs. TOR

Surprisingly, two of Josh Hart’s least-productive games of the season have come against this Toronto team, but I’m willing to write that off as more of a coincidence than anything. He’s the ultimate “does the dirty work” guy in the NBA and simply finds a way to stuff the stat sheet more often than not. Over his L5Games, he is averaging 14.8 PPG, 13.2 RPG, 7.2 APG, and 2.0 STL+BLK/gm while playing an absurd 42.6 Min/gm (all in regulation). He is up to 1.13 FPPM in that span and has put up an average of 48.0 DKFP/44.8 FDFP. Toronto is 26th in DEFRTG and checks in dead last versus starting small forwards L10Games so, again, those two previous duds against the Raptors are looking like straight outliers. Hart would also see a marginal usage and rebounding boost if star center Karl-Anthony Towns (knee/questionable) were to be ruled out tonight.

SF/PF Caleb Martin, PHI | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.1k | vs. WAS

Caleb Martin is one of several 76ers’ players who should receive a bump today given their current injury situation. When accounting for all five of the 76ers who are out tonight (including J. McCain, who is done for the season), we’ll find that Martin has taken on a substantial +8.01% USG% increase. He should also be in line for mid-to-upper 30s minutes, assuming this game stays fairly competitive throughout.

PF Peyton Watson, DEN | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. LAC

Watson has played 34 minutes in each of the Nuggets’ previous two games, and he has closed as a “starter” by playing the entire fourth quarter in both of those games -- neither of which was a complete blowout. Watson has picked up some additional minutes off of the bench due to the Aaron Gordon (calf/out) injury -- Gordon will miss his eighth consecutive game tonight. Watson’s floor and ceiling would be boosted even further if Nikola Jokic were to miss a second game in as many days due to an illness. Regardless of Jokic’s status, Watson should play, at minimum, mid-20s minutes tonight, and he’s a good bet to return value, particularly at $3,400 on DraftKings.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL vs. SAS

SF/SG Zach LaVine, CHI at IND

PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE vs. OKC

PF Pascal Siakam, IND vs. CHI

SF/SG Norman Powell, LAC at DEN

SF/SG Devin Vassell, SAS at MIL

PF Tobias Harris, DET at BKN

PF/C Guershon Yabusele, PHI vs. WAS

SF/SG Toumani Camara, POR at NOP

SF/SG Luguentz Dort, OKC at CLE

PF/C Obi Toppin, IND vs. CHI (Boost if M. Turner is out)

SF/PF Aaron Wiggins, OKC at CLE

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Ivica Zubac, LAC | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.7k | at DEN

Zubac has been a double-double machine this season (15.1 PPG, 12.6 RPG) and he heads into tonight’s match-up having secured 40+ FP in eight of his last 10 games. This will be the fourth meeting between the Clips and Nugs this season -- in the previous three, Zubac has produced one dud, one “on par” performance, and one ceiling-type game. Regardless of whether Jokic (illness) is able to suit up tonight, this is a great match-up as the Nuggets have allowed the most FPPG to starting centers L20Games. At $7,700 on both sites, I don’t believe you can go wrong by slotting Zubac into lineups given his outstanding floor + ceiling combination.

C Jalen Smith, CHI | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.1k | at IND

Barring an early Nikola Vucevic injury/ejection, Jalen Smith isn’t going to crack 20 minutes tonight. But, thanks to his elite per-minute production, he doesn’t need those types of minutes in order to return upwards of 6x value. Smith has averaged 1.21 FPPM on the season, which he has bumped up to 1.26 FPPM L5Games. He’s only playing 14-18 minutes most nights, but that has been plenty of time for him to put up some quality stats. Those low-end minutes should count for more than usual given the match-up. Both of these teams rank top eight in pace of play and bottom 10 in DEFRTG. I don’t believe center is a position where you have to save salary this evening but you could do far worse than Jalen Smith if you’re in need of a value option.

Other Centers to Consider

C Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. LAC (Currently questionable)

C Victor Wembanyama, SAS at MIL

C Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK at TOR (Currently questionable)

C Jarrett Allen, CLE vs. OKC

C Deandre Ayton, POR at NOP

C Jericho Sims, NYK at TOR (Only if Towns is out + Sims starts)

PF/C Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, NOP vs. POR

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

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In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!