Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Shannon & Tyler

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

The week of the mid-sized slate continues with seven games on the Thursday docket! Yesterday’s Cavs vs. Thunder showdown lived up to the hype and, while we won’t have any match-ups close to that caliber on tonight’s slate, there are some quality games lined up, and only one game with a spread larger than eight points. The injury report is as busy as usual but two teams we’ll really need to keep track of are the Warriors and the Grizzlies -- both teams have several key players currently listed as “questionable”. Let’s see what we can cook up today. Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

• Raptors: O. Agbaji - OUT, D. Mitchell - Probable

• Cavs: D. Mitchell - OUT, S. Merrill - Questionable

• Warriors: S. Curry - Questionable, J. Kuminga - OUT, A. Wiggins - OUT, D. Green - Questionable, D. Schroder - Questionable, B. Podziemski - OUT, M. Moody - Questionable, G. Payton II - OUT

• Pistons: A. Thompson - Probable, J. Ivey - OUT

• Timberwolves: None

• Magic: P. Banchero - OUT, F. Wagner - OUT, J. Suggs - OUT, G. Harris - OUT

• Trailblazers: J. Grant - OUT, R. Williams - Questionable, D. Clingan - Questionable

• Mavs: L. Doncic - OUT, K. Irving - OUT, D. Gafford - Questionable

• Rockets: J. Smith Jr. - OUT, T. Eason - Doubtful

• Grizzlies: J. Jackson Jr. - Questionable, J. Morant - Questionable, D. Bane - Questionable, S. Aldama - Questionable, M. Smart - OUT, V. Williams Jr. - OUT

• Heat: J. Butler - OUT, J. Richardson - Doubtful, K. Love - OUT

• Jazz: J. Collins - OUT, J. Clarkson - OUT, K. George - OUT, B. Sensabaugh - OUT

• Hawks: T. Young - Probable, J. Johnson - OUT, O. Okongwu - Questionable, B. Bogdanovic - Probable, L. Nance Jr. - OUT

• Suns: R. O’Neale - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG/SG Devin Booker, PHX | DK: $9k, FD: $8.9k | vs. ATL

I’m not overly attached to any single high-priced guard on this slate but I am interested to see if Devin Booker can string together back-to-back ceiling games since he’ll have a juicy match-up in front of him. Booker poured in 39 points, 10 assists, and 6 rebounds against the Hornets on Tuesday while operating under a mammoth 35.7% USG%. His assist rate is climbing steadily lately, averaging 8.8 APG L5Games compared to 6.8 APG on the season. That increase in assists could at least partially be attributed to Bradley Beal moving to a bench role these last two games. The Suns will be looking to stop a skid that has them losing eight of their last 10 games. They’re currently six-point home favorites tonight and this game possesses a slate-high 238.5 O/U. The Hawks (2nd in pace) provide a significant pace-up boost for the Suns (22nd in pace). Atlanta is also 20th in DEFRTG and they have ranked 28th versus starting backcourts (PGs & SGs -- Booker often plays a combo guard role) L20Games. Atlanta will be without one of their best defenders, Jalen Johnson, again tonight as well. Johnson has missed three of the last four games and the Hawks are allowing 127.5 PPG in that span.

PG/SG Terry Rozier, MIA | DK: $5k, FD: $5k | at UTA

Rozier’s role has been expanding lately; he has played between 30 and 41 minutes in four of the Heat’s last five games (and he started four of those five games). The one outlier was an 18-minute game against this same Jazz team where the majority of the Miami starters played limited minutes in the 3rd quarter, and zero minutes in the 4th quarter, while the Heat were getting boat raced by the Jazz, ultimately losing by 36 points. Considering the Jazz have ranked dead last in DEFRTG for much of the season, I wouldn’t bank on Utah running away with this one again. In fact, the Heat are six-point road favorites tonight against the depleted Jazz. Rozier may not be playing at the same level as in seasons past, but if he’s going to garner mid-30s minutes in a plus match-up, then he’s probably just too cheap at $5,000 on both sites.

PG Ty Jerome, CLE | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.4k | vs. TOR

Jerome has been one of the more underrated bench players in the NBA this season and, with Donovan Mitchell ruled out, he’ll have a strong chance to operate in an expanded role and potentially start. I’d say he would be a lock to start, as he did in the one game that Mitchell has previously sat out this season (Nov. 17th vs. CHA). But I believe Max Strus, who made his season debut in late December, has at least a moderate chance to start in place of Mitchell -- still, my money would be on Jerome getting the start. Anyhow, Jerome is due for an increased role one way or another and he leads the team in both usage rate increase (+5.0%) and FP per 32 minutes increase (+7.03) with Donovan Mitchell off the floor this season. Jerome has averaged an excellent 1.22 FPPM L5Games and, by my guesstimations, he should be in line for anywhere between 24 and 32 minutes tonight.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Trae Young, ATL at PHX

SG Anthony Edwards, MIN at ORL

SG/SF Desmond Bane, MEM vs. HOU (Currently questionable - Potential boost pending MEM injury report)

PG Darius Garland, CLE vs. TOR

PG Fred VanVleet, HOU at MEM

PG Anfernee Simons, POR at DAL

PG/SG Collin Sexton, UTA vs. MIA

PG Spencer Dinwiddie, DAL vs. POR

PG/SG Cole Anthony, ORL vs. MIN

PG/SG Jaden Hardy, DAL vs. POR

PG Isaiah Collier, URA vs. MIA

PG/SG Caris LeVert, CLE vs. TOR

SG/SF Max Strus, CLE vs. TOR (Preferred if starting)

SG Buddy Hield, GSW at DET (Potential boost pending GSW injury report)

PG/SG Vit Krejci, ATL at PHX (Only if starting again)

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/PF Lauri Markkanen, UTA | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.5k | vs. MIA

The Jazz will continue to operate without four key players -- John Collins, Jordan Clarkson, Keyonte George, and Brice Sensabaugh -- all out again tonight. All four were sidelined in Utah’s previous game against the Hawks on Tuesday and Markkanen picked up most of the slack, scoring 35 points on 11-of-21 shooting while taking on a monster 39.2% USG%. To no surprise, Markkanen has seen a significant +5.53% spike in his usage rate with those four players off the floor this season, and, more notably, he has led the team with a +12.4 FP per 32-minute increase in those splits. The Heat have not been guarding opposing power forwards effectively (25th vs. Starting PFs L20Games) and not having the services of Jimmy Butler (suspension/out) certainly doesn’t help their cause on the defensive end. Markkanen hasn’t been the 50+ FP machine that he has been in the last year or two but he’ll have the opportunity to pop off for one of his better games of the season tonight.

SF/SG Amen Thompson, HOU | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.9k | at MEM

Thompson has been flourishing in his newly acquired starting role and is coming off of a pair of massive double-doubles where he has averaged 21.5 points and 15.5 rebounds while playing 41 minutes in each of the L2Games. As a starter this season, Thompson is putting up 18.0 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 2.7 APG, and 3.7 STL+BLK/gm, resulting in 43.5 DKFP/44.3 FDFP per game. Though he has owned a fairly low 17.2% USG% in those starts, his efficiency as a scorer has counteracted the lack of shots… racking up multiple steals and blocks helps his DFS floor/ceiling quite a bit as well. And, of course, he has been a menace on the boards. The Rockets (20th in pace) do not play particularly fast but they will receive a significant pace-up boost against the Grizzlies (1st in pace). Thompson’s DFS salaries are rapidly climbing but there is still meat on the bone at his current price points. He may also be asked to play 40+ minutes again considering this game is essentially a pick ‘em with the Rockets being one-point road underdogs.

SF Toumani Camara, POR | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.4k | at DAL

This will be more of a DraftKings-preferred play as DK has been slower to the punch than FanDuel at pricing Camara correctly. Jerami Grant (face/out) has been sidelined for the last five games. In those games, Camara has picked up some additional minutes -- 34.4 Min/gm (vs. 30.6 Min/gm L20Games) -- and he has put up 14.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 2.4 APG, and 2.4 STL+BLK/gm, resulting in 29.7 DKFP/gm. Quick math -- that averages out to 6.6x at a $4,500 salary. While he’s not going to take over any games or command high usage, you could argue that Camara is about $1,000 too cheap [on DraftKings] given his current role.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Kevin Durant, PHX vs. ATL

PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE vs. TOR

SF/PF Deni Avdija, POR at DAL

SF/SG Quentin Grimes, DAL vs. POR

SF/PF Jaime Jaquez Jr., MIA at UTA

PF/C Naz Reid, MIN at ORL

SF/SG Johnny Juzang, UTA vs. MIA

SF/PF Cam Whitmore, HOU at MEM

SF/SG Garrison Mathews, ATL at PHX

SF/PF Georges Niang, CLE vs. TOR

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Jarrett Allen, CLE | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.3k | vs. TOR

This does feel a bit chasey considering every NBA fan with a pulse probably tuned into that OKC/CLE game last night, in which Jarrett Allen dominated to the tune of a 25/11/6 stat line (w/ three steals and a block), resulting in 57.25 DKFP/59.20 FDFP. But Allen has had multiple monster games over the last couple of weeks and has averaged 1.60 FPPM over his last six starts. And while he doesn’t see a major boost with Donovan Mitchell (rest/out) off the floor, he does see moderate increases of +2.5% USG% and +4.1 FP per 32 minutes. I don’t love the back-to-back factor (Allen: -16% less FPPG w/ no rest) but I still want some exposure to Allen tonight even if he does end up being fairly popular. He posted 47.75 DKFP/47.6 FDFP against the Raptors earlier this season and a similar result could be in the cards tonight.

C Isaiah Stewart, DET | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.6k | vs. GSW

This will be another DK-preferred play as there is no real reason for Stewart to be under $4k. While he’s only averaging a hair under 20 Min/gm off of the bench L5Games, he is putting up 1.07 FPPM and 21.2 DKFP/gm in that span. The Warriors could be very shorthanded tonight and they have ranked 29th versus bench centers L20Games. On DraftKings, there is just a strong chance for Stewart to return 6x value (or better) at this low $3,400 salary.

Other Centers to Consider

C Alperen Sengun, HOU at MEM

C Bam Adebayo, MIA at UTA

C Walker Kessler, UTA vs. MIA

C Deandre Ayton, POR at DAL

C Jalen Duren, DET vs. GSW

C Rudy Gobert, MIN at ORL

C Dereck Lively II, DAL vs. POR (Preferred if D. Gafford is out)

C Trayce Jackson-Davis, GSW at DET

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!