Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter/X & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

🏀Tyler’s NBA (and other sports) prop bets can be found on the LineStar YouTube Shorts page!🏀

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

We’ll close out the work week with a quality seven-game NBA main slate. Both DraftKings and FanDuel have elected to exclude the three West Coast matchups that reside in the 10 o’clock ET window. There aren’t many high totals on the board today, but we do have plenty of competitive matchups – on paper at least – with six games carrying spreads under six points. The first big trade of the season went down Wednesday, as Atlanta sent Trae Young to Washington in exchange for CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert. None of those players are expected to debut for their new teams just yet, but it’s a reminder that trade season is officially underway as we inch closer to the February 5th deadline.

The injury report is fairly busy, with the Thunder and Nuggets standing out as teams with particularly thin rotations today. That said, there are only a handful of mid-to-high impact players carrying questionable tags, so while this isn’t a slate with a ton of Q-tags to keep track of, there are still enough moving pieces that staying on top of news as it breaks throughout the afternoon and evening will be vital. With all of that in mind, let’s jump into the action. Best of luck!

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Today’s Key Injuries 🚑

^{Note: NBA injury reports can be fickle and often update throughout the day. Be sure to stay up-to-date on all injury news leading up to tip-off as the list below may be a bit outdated by the time you’re reading this.}

^{Additional Note: Players who have yet to play this season will be excluded from the injury report, unless they have either a probable, questionable, or doubtful injury designation, with some amount of chance to make their season debut. Injured players who have been out for an extended period of time and/or are not expected to play for a month-plus will also be excluded.}

• Raptors: S. Barnes – DOUBTFUL, B. Ingram – Questionable, J. Poeltl – OUT

• Celtics: J. Minott – OUT

• Pelicans: T. Murphy III – Questionable, S. Bey – OUT, H. Jones – OUT, J. Alvarado – OUT

• Wizards: T. Young – OUT

• 76ers: J. Embiid – Probable

• Magic: F. Wagner – OUT, J. Suggs – OUT

• Clippers: K. Leonard – Questionable, D. Jones Jr. – OUT, B. Bogdanovic – OUT

• Nets: None

• Thunder: S. Gilgeous-Alexander – OUT, C. Holmgren – OUT, I. Hartenstein – OUT, C. Wallace – OUT, Jay. Williams – OUT, A. Caruso – Questionable

• Grizzlies: J. Morant – OUT, Z. Edey – OUT, C. Coward – Questionable, V. Williams Jr. – Questionable, J. Konchar – DOUBTFUL

• Hawks: CJ McCollum – OUT, K. Porzingis – Questionable, C. Kispert – OUT

• Nuggets: N. Jokic – OUT, J. Murray – Questionable, A. Gordon – Probable, J. Valanciunas – OUT, C. Johnson – OUT, C. Braun – Probable, S. Jones – DOUBTFUL, B. Brown – Probable

• Knicks: J. Hart – OUT, L. Shamet – OUT, G. Yabusele – Questionable

• Suns: J. Green – OUT, J. Bouyea – OUT

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.5k | at ORL

Maxey is coming off a slightly disappointing fantasy outing, but it was entirely tied to game script, as Philadelphia blew out Washington by 21 points. He logged just 44 seconds in the fourth quarter, ultimately ending the game with 28 minutes -- well below his season average of 39.6 minutes/gm. After dealing with some injuries to key starters and role players, the 76ers are now essentially at full strength, but Maxey remains locked into a massive workload and continues to produce at an elite level. Over his last five games, he’s averaged 30.8 PPG, 8.0 APG, 5.8 RPG, and 3.6 STL+BLK/gm while posting 1.50 FPPM and 59.1 DKFP/gm, all despite a modest [for a star player] 26.7% USG% in that span. Maxey still commands this offense alongside Embiid, Paul George, and VJ Edgecombe, and we’ve already seen his ceiling in this matchup after he dropped 43 points and 64.0 DKFP against Orlando earlier this season. The Magic have also allowed the 10th-most FPPG to starting point guards over their last 20 games.

PG Ajay Mitchell, OKC | DK: $5k, FD: $5.5k | at MEM

Oklahoma City will be extremely short-handed with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren sidelined, among others, which puts Ajay Mitchell in a prime spot to soak up minutes and usage. To keep things clean, looking only at Mitchell’s on/off splits with SGA and Holmgren off the floor this season (144-minute sample), his usage rate jumps to 25.5% and he averages 1.10 FPPM. He’s projected for around 33.0 minutes tonight as a starter, and that level of playing time has already led to strong results when given the opportunity. He logged 33 minutes in OKC’s last game and posted 34.5 DKFP – and that was with SGA and Holmgren playing. The matchup also works in his favor, as Memphis has allowed 40.7 FPPG to starting point guards over their last 20 games (6th-most). We’re going to see multiple chalk pieces on this OKC team today but, at these price points, Mitchell stands out as one of the stronger value options on the slate and should have little trouble paying off if the minutes hold.

PG/SG Miles McBride, NYK | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4.8k | at PHX

Miles McBride continues to offer strong value in the mid-$4k range, especially if he holds onto a starting role. He logged 33.5 minutes as a starter in his last outing and turned that into 29.25 DKFP – he has averaged 0.97 FPPM over his last six games. McBride is projected for another 31.5 minutes tonight, and that kind of workload makes him tough to ignore at this price. With projected ownership figures at 11% on DraftKings and 6% on FanDuel, he also works well as a pivot away from some of the chalkier cheap guards on the slate, with PG/SG eligibility adding flexibility to roster construction.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Jamal Murray, DEN vs. ATL (Currently questionable)

PG James Harden, LAC at BKN (Preferred if Kawhi is out)

PG Jalen Brunson, NYK at PHX

PG/SG Anthony Black, ORL vs. PHI

SG/SF Nickeil Alexander-Walker, ATL at DEN

PG/SG Dyson Daniels, ATL at DEN

SG VJ Edgecombe, PHI at ORL

PG/SG Jordan Poole, NOP at WAS (Preferred if Murphy is out again)

SG Christian Braun, DEN vs. ATL (Boost if Murray is out)

PG Bub Carrington, WAS vs. NOP

PG/SG Anfernee Simons, BOS vs. TOR

PG/SG Jalen Pickett, DEN vs. ATL (Only if Murray is out)

SG Luguentz Dort, OKC at MEM

SG Isaiah Joe, OKC at MEM (Slight boost if Caruso is out)

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF Jalen Williams, OKC | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.9k | at MEM

Jalen Williams is set up to shoulder a massive offensive workload with SGA, Holmgren, and Hartenstein all sidelined, as well as a couple other OKC role players. While the on/off sample is small, the production has been eye-popping -- in 31 minutes with SGA and Holmgren off the floor this season, Williams has averaged 1.44 FPPM with a massive 41.2% USG%, both considerable jumps from his season-long marks (1.16 FPPM, 25.8% USG%). The minutes and role should be there again tonight, making him one of the safest sources of raw production on the slate. On both DK and FD, Williams trails only Jalen Johnson in consensus projections among forwards today, and is, of course, considerably cheaper than the star Hawks power forward. Like the aforementioned Ajay Mitchell, Jalen Williams is going to be a very chalky option for this shorthanded Thunder team, but he’s also a scary fade.

PF/C Derik Queen, NOP | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7k | at WAS

Derik Queen is coming off a frustrating outing where his minutes inexplicably disappeared, as he checked out with over five minutes left in the third quarter and never returned despite playing well. He was on track for another big game, having scored 29.0 DKFP in just 19 minutes. It was a sharp contrast from the two games prior, where he logged 30+ minutes in each. The expectation is that his workload rebounds tonight. The Pelicans are down a couple of forwards (Saddiq Bey and Herb Jones are both out) and Queen is projected for around 28 minutes this evening. The matchup sets up as an ideal get-right spot, as Washington owns one of the weakest frontcourts in the league, ranking 27th in Rebounding% and allowing the seventh-most points in the paint. The Wizards have also given up plenty of those premium defensive metrics, allowing the fourth-most blocks and second-most steals per game, which plays directly into Queen’s strengths (3.6 STL+BLK/gm L5Games). This game also possesses the only true high total on the slate, with a 241.5 over/under, and the spread is also narrow at 2.5 points in favor of the Pels. If the minutes normalize, Queen brings strong upside at these price points in a game where New Orleans carries the top implied team total on the slate (122.0 points).

PF/C Collin Murray-Boyles, TOR | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.7k | at BOS

There are safer value forwards on this slate, but the likely absence of Scottie Barnes (knee/doubtful) is notable and could be somewhat overlooked given that Barnes hasn’t missed a game yet this season. Brandon Ingram is also listed as questionable, which would further thin out Toronto’s offense and potentially open up additional usage. With Jakob Poeltl still sidelined, Murray-Boyles has continued to pick up starts, and while the rookie’s floor remains volatile, the ceiling has flashed. Just two games ago, CMB posted a 17/7/7 line with three steals and two blocks, good for 46.2 DKFP. This is not an ideal matchup on paper, as Boston plays at the slowest pace in the league and Toronto is a 10.5-point underdog, but even in a negative game script, Murray-Boyles could still push toward 30+ minutes as the Raptors prioritize development of their first-round rookie. He’s more appealing on DraftKings at a sub-$5k salary, though another defensive-heavy line with increased offensive usage could also allow him to pay off on FanDuel at $5.7k.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF Jalen Johnson, ATL at DEN

PF Paolo Banchero, ORL vs. PHI

SF Michael Porter Jr., BKN vs. LAC

PF Zion Williamson, NOP at WAS (Boost if Murphy is out)

SF/PF Peyton Watson, DEN vs. ATL (Boost if Murray is out)

SF RJ Barrett, TOR at BOS (Boost if Ingram is out)

SF Bilal Coulibaly, WAS vs. NOP

SF Zaccharie Risacher, ATL at DEN

SF/PF Aaron Wiggins, OKC at MEM

PF Khris Middleton, WAS vs. NOP

SF/PF Sam Hauser, BOS vs. TOR

PF/C Kenrich Williams, OKC at MEM

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Alex Sarr, WAS | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.8k | vs. NOP

Alex Sarr carries a wide range of outcomes, but the ceiling is clearly there, especially in when Washington finds themselves in competitive environments like this one should be, based on the narrow 2.5-point spread. He’s averaged an excellent 1.34 FPPM on the season and draws an appealing matchup against a Pelicans frontcourt that has allowed the second-most FPPG to starting centers over their last 20 games. While Sarr doesn’t consistently push past 30 minutes, he’s shown that even 26–28 minutes can be enough to return value at these price points. With much of the slate’s attention likely focused on OKC value, this game environment could go a bit overlooked. Given that it carries the highest total on the slate (241.5) by a decent margin, Sarr profiles as an appealing tournament option with legitimate 50+ FP upside.

C Branden Carlson, OKC | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.8k | at MEM

Speaking of that OKC value, Branden Carlson should be in line for a spot start with the Thunder down their top three centers, as Holmgren, Hartenstein, and Jaylin Williams are all out. In a solid 94-minute sample with SGA, Holmgren, Hartenstein, and Jaylin Williams off the floor this season, Carlson has averaged a stout 1.24 FPPM. He’s projected for around 25–26 minutes tonight, which is more than enough run at these rock-bottom salaries. Carlson has already shown what he can do in an elevated role, finishing with 37.25 DKFP in his last game with 20+ minutes. Barring foul trouble or injury, it’s difficult to envision many scenarios where Carlson doesn’t return strong point-per-dollar value in this spot.

Other Centers to Consider

C Joel Embiid, PHI at ORL

C Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK at PHX

C Onyeka Okongwu, ATL at DEN (Boost if Porzingis is out)

C Mark Williams, PHX vs. NYK

C Sandro Mamukelashvili, TOR at BOS (Boost if starting)

C Marvin Bagley III, WAS vs. NOP

🔥 Props AI 🔥

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter/X or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!