Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter/X & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

_{Terms: Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling, and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.}

The NBA is finally back, and with it comes another season of DFS chaos, endless edge-hunting, and late-scratch madness. As usual, there’s been quite a bit of turnover across the league this offseason, so staying flexible and quick to react as trends emerge will be key to staying ahead of the field.

NBA DFS Strategy & Tips 💡

I know many of you are seasoned NBA DFS vets so feel free to skip this portion of the newsletter. For those of you who are either brand new to the sport or need a quick refresher on what’s important, here is a rundown of what you NEED to know before getting serious about NBA DFS:

Be Available Close to Tip-Off

Hey, life happens — NBA DFS isn’t the most important thing in the world. Sometimes you won’t be able to hang around your computer or phone to make lineup adjustments. That’s fine. But if you want to compete seriously, you have to stay on top of breaking injury news, late scratches, and confirmed starting lineups — all of which tend to drop closer to each game’s scheduled tip-off.

Because there are almost always later West Coast games, it’s often worth revisiting your lineups mid-slate to make some late swaps after the early games lock. The NBA is easily the most chaotic DFS sport when it comes to last-minute news, usually hitting around or under 30 minutes before each game (and occasionally after a game has locked, in which case you are kinda S.O.L.).

If you know you won’t be available to react to late changes, it’s better to either take the slate off or play lighter with your bankroll — otherwise, you’re basically risking your hard-earned money on outdated information.

One small tip: enable mobile push notifications for confirmed lineups and projection updates. On the LineStar app, you can do this under Settings → My Notifications → Show Notifications → Turn on NBA Confirmed Lineups Notifications. You can also toggle on alerts for projection updates and other key news.

Pay Attention to Vegas Spreads, Totals, and Implied Team Scores

Pretty straightforward — you want exposure to players in competitive, high-scoring games. The closer the spread, the better the chances that starters on both sides see full workloads and heavy minutes.

Teams with high implied point totals (115+ points) are also prime DFS targets, as they’re projected to put up plenty of fantasy production opportunities.

On the flip side, games with large spreads can hint at blowout potential — which often means extra minutes for bench players. That can be a great way to dig for value plays who might outperform their price tags if the game script goes their way.

Usage, Usage, Usage

Usage Rate (or just “usage” or “USG%”) — defined as (field goal attempts + possession-ending free throws + turnovers) ÷ possessions — tells you how involved a player is offensively. In simple terms, high-usage players take more shots and have the ball in their hands more often, which usually means more fantasy production.

It’s arguably the most important individual stat in NBA DFS. When a high-usage player is out, always check which teammates see a bump to their respective USG% — those are often your best value or breakout plays. The Usage Matrix tool on LineStar makes this easy by showing how usage shifts when key players are off the floor.

Fantasy Points Per Minute (FPPM) & Minutes Per Game (Min/Gm)

To state the obvious, you want your DFS players to not only play quality minutes but also make the most of them. Plenty of solid NBA players don’t translate well to DFS — maybe they’re defensive specialists or take a backseat offensively to higher-usage teammates. Ideally, your DFS targets are logging big minutes and producing efficiently when on the floor.

A solid player typically averages around 0.80–1.00 FPPM, while strong fantasy producers fall in the 1.00–1.30 range. The elite tier — often your superstar-level players — can push 1.30–1.80 FPPM, though sustaining the top-end of that range over time is tough. Still, some players can get on extended heaters where they post massive fantasy numbers on a per-minute basis for several games.

Factor in NBA Pace Statistics

A team’s pace of play is a simple but crucial stat in NBA DFS. Fast-paced teams push the tempo, get shots up quickly, and create more opportunities for points, assists, and rebounds — all of which drive fantasy production.

Target players in up-tempo matchups, but also keep in mind how pace clashes can affect outcomes. For instance, if a fast-paced team like last year’s Grizzlies (1^st in pace in the 24-25 season) faced the slow, methodical Magic (30^th in pace in the 24-25 season), Magic players would likely see a pace boost, leading to more possessions and production. On the flip side, Grizzlies players could be downgraded due to the slower overall game environment.

Defensive Efficiency and DvP (Defense vs. Position)

Some teams just aren’t good defensively, and others consistently struggle against specific positions. Keep an eye on these matchup weaknesses — identifying them early can give you an edge when targeting spots to attack.

Using Projections Correctly

DFS projections are valuable, but they’re not gospel. As our guy ZeroInDenver says, “Projections are not a crystal ball.” Still, they’re built on a ton of aggregate data and can help you gauge a player’s expected performance and overall floor/ceiling in a given matchup.

Aiming for a Certain “x” Value Based on Salary

Generally speaking, this concept matters most if you’re hand-building a lineup, especially if it’s your single-entry lineup or a lineup meant for cash games (double-ups, 50/50s, head-to-heads, etc.). It’s always slate-dependent, but a good rule of thumb on DraftKings is to target players who can return around 5x–6x value on their salary. For example, a $6,000 player should ideally produce 30–36 DKFP. Some players offer a safer 5x–6x floor (great for cash games), while others bring more volatile 6x–8x GPP-winning upside but come with a lower floor — better suited for tournaments.

Figure Out a DFS Process That Works for You

No one cashes every night — it’s just part of the grind. You’ll have slates where everything goes wrong: a star you’re heavily exposed to gets hurt in the first quarter, a presumed competitive high-scoring game turns into a brick-fest or blowout, or foul trouble sidelines your key plays early. It happens. NBA DFS can be tilting, so keep refining your process, stay adaptable, and accept that variance is part of the game. What works for someone else might not fit your approach, and that’s okay.

Practice Smart Bankroll Management & Contest Selection

This goes for any DFS sport, but it’s crucial to mention. Manage your bankroll wisely — if you want to be profitable long-term, don’t blow a quarter of your monthly spend on one slate. A general guideline is to invest around 5–10% of your bankroll per night (if you don’t keep your DFS account loaded up, think of it as 5–10% of whatever amount you’re willing to spend monthly on DFS), but do what fits your comfort level. You also don’t need to mass-enter 150 GPP lineups to win. Find contests that suit your style and risk tolerance, and consider mixing GPPs and cash games to balance upside with stability over the long haul.

Alright, I don’t want this segment to get too lengthy and I believe I’ve covered the core NBA DFS basics so let’s get into today’s slate!

NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler Wiemann

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

As usual, the NBA season opens with a two-game doubleheader that will feature a pair of high-profile matchups. I’d recommend treading lightly on today’s season-opening two-game slate. We’ll have 12 games loaded up on tomorrow’s schedule, so consider tonight’s doubleheader as a bit of an appetizer for what’s ahead! It’s also going to take at least a solid week or two before we have a more cemented idea of what starting lineups, rotations, usage rates, and team paces look like for each team this year, so just exercise some additional caution early on in the season. Anyhow, here’s to another great NBA season for the LineStar crew! Best of luck!

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Today’s Key Injuries 🚑

^{Note: NBA injury reports can be fickle and often update throughout the day. Be sure to stay up-to-date on all injury news leading up to tip-off as the list below may be a bit outdated by the time you’re reading this.}

• Rockets: D. Finney-Smith - OUT, J. Tate - OUT, F. VanVleet - OUT (could miss entire 25-26 season, so I will exclude him in future injury reports), I. Crawford - Questionable

• Thunder: Jal. Williams - OUT, I. Joe - OUT, K. Williams - OUT, N. Topic - OUT

• Warriors: J. Butler - Probable, J. Kuminga - Probable, M. Moody - OUT, D. Melton - OUT, A. Toohey - OUT

• Lakers: L. James - OUT, M. Kleber - OUT, A. Thiero - OUT

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Luka Doncic, LAL | DK: $11k, FD: $11.7k | vs. GSW

It’s Opening Day in the NBA, and we already have major injuries to factor in… classic! The Lakers will start their 2025-26 campaign without the services of LeBron James, who is expected to be sidelined until mid-November due to sciatica. That’s going to open the door for Luka Doncic to command this offense for at least the first few weeks of the season. Last season, since he joined up with the Lakers in the surprise trade of the century, Luka owned a 28.8% USG% and 32.5 points per 100 possessions while sharing the court with LeBron. Those are still excellent offensive numbers, but, in over 450 minutes with LeBron off the court, Luka’s usage rate skyrocketed to a monster 43.4% with a 50.3 points per 100 possessions average. His FPPM (fantasy point per minute) average also went from 1.26 with LeBron on the floor to 1.81 with him off. Predictably, Doncic didn’t see much action in the preseason, but in the two games he did play in (27.5 Min/gm), he was scorching hot from three, sinking 52.6% of his three-point attempts while averaging 28.0 PPG. Doncic is not going to fly under the radar on any slate, especially a two-gamer, but it’s worth pointing out how scary of a fade Doncic will be tonight.

SG Austin Reaves, LAL | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.9k | vs. GSW

We’ll stay in the Lakers’ backcourt and spotlight another guy who should benefit from LeBron James’ absence. Here is a quick rundown on Austin Reaves’ splits from last season with LeBron on and off the court.

Reaves w/ LeBron on the Court: 18.7% USG%, 23.3 Points/100 Possessions, 15.9% AST%, 0.87 FPPM

Reaves w/ LeBron off the Court: 28.2% USG%, 33.9 Points/100 Possessions, 31.1% AST%, 1.28 FPPM

So we can safely assume that Reaves and Doncic will be the two primary ball handlers for L.A. this evening. Though he won’t put up the same shot volume as Doncic tonight, with a near-30% USG% in those aforementioned splits, Reaves essentially takes on similar usage with LeBron off the court as what Luka posted last season with LeBron on the court (hopefully that makes sense), so that is still some strong usage. Reaves also had plenty of success against the Warriors last season -- in four meetings against Golden State, he averaged 24.0 PPG, 6.0 APG, 6.0 RPG, and 1.5 STL/gm. So I don’t believe we’re really sweating the matchup here.

SG Gary Payton II, GSW | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.7k | at LAL

As always, if we’re going to fit some studs into lineups, we have to find some value somewhere. That can be particularly difficult on a two-game slate like this one. But, at the near-minimum salary on both sites, Gary Payton II is going to make for a fairly sensible dart throw. The Warriors aren’t too banged up to begin the season; Jimmy Butler and Jonathan Kuminga both have injury designations, but are expected to play tonight. However, Moses Moody (calf/out) will not be able to debut tonight, and De’Anthony Melton (knee/out), who only appeared in six games last season, will also be out for the foreseeable future. So those injuries, particularly Moody’s, will open up some backcourt minutes. Buddy Hield (DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.2k) is another guy who should receive a bump, and he’s particularly appealing at his FanDuel price tag. But Payton should also find his way on the court for around 15-20 minutes. He averaged a solid 0.84 FPPM across his final 20 games of last season and, while the floor is low, he has plenty of potential to pay off these low-end salaries. Payton also displayed some highly efficient shooting in the preseason, racking up a 69.2% FG% and 42.9% 3P% across his five preseason games.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.1k | vs. HOU

PG Steph Curry, GSW | DK: $9.3k, FD: $8.1k | at LAL

PG/SG Amen Thompson, HOU | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.6k | at OKC

PG/SG Brandin Podziemski, GSW | DK: $6.6k, FD: $5.7k | at LAL

SG/SF Buddy Hield, GSW | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.2k | at LAL (FanDuel Preferred)

PG/SG Cason Wallace, OKC | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.6k | vs. HOU (Preferred if starting)

SG Luguentz Dort, OKC | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4.4k | vs. HOU

PG/SG Marcus Smart, LAL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. GSW

PG Gabe Vincent, LAL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. GSW (Preferred if starting)

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Chet Holmgren, OKC | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.1k | vs. HOU

Holmgren isn’t cheap, but he’s at a reasonable price for a guy who can put up 40-50 FP, especially if he racks up some blocks. His size will certainly be needed tonight, considering the Rockets are expected to start a “jumbo” lineup featuring four players (Durant, J. Smith Jr., Sengun, S. Adams) who are 6’11”. The Thunder will also start the season without Jalen Williams (wrist/out). While Holmgren’s splits with Jalen Williams on/off the court last season do not increase drastically, they do increase nonetheless. More importantly, I believe Holmgren could handle a few extra minutes with Williams out tonight. Holmgren averaged 20.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 2.7 BLK/gm, and 3.3 3PM/gm in three meetings with the Rockets last season. He was the NBA’s third-leading blocker (on a per-game basis) last season, and that’s a stat category that could very much boost his DFS output tonight -- the Rockets allowed the second-most opponent blocks per game (6.0) a season ago.

PF/C Draymond Green, GSW | DK: $5.7k, FD: $5.9k | at LAL

Everyone’s favorite NBA player, Draymond Green, may not routinely put up double-doubles at this stage in his career, but he is still capable of stuffing the stat sheet as a facilitator in this Warriors offense while playing quality defense. He averaged 9.0 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 5.6 APG, and 2.5 STL+BLK/gm across 68 games a season ago while playing a hair under 30 Min/gm. Nothing remarkable, but he’s generally going to be a worthy mid-range play with a decent floor. On a two-game slate like this, sometimes the boring play is necessary.

SF/PF Aaron Wiggins, OKC | DK: $5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. HOU

Wiggins has a real chance to crack the starting lineup tonight, but, at the very least, he should handle additional minutes due to both Jalen Williams and Isaiah Joe missing tonight’s action. PG/SG Cason Wallace (DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.6k) and SF Alex Caruso (DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.7k) are also candidates to start tonight, but I’ll put my money on Wiggins for now. Either way, as long as he plays around 25 minutes, he is a good bet to return some reasonable value. He handled a +4.5% USG% boost with Jal. Williams and Joe off the court last season while increasing his FPPM average from 0.89 to 1.01 -- those aren’t massive boosts, but quality boosts nonetheless.

Other Forwards to Consider

SF/PF Kevin Durant, HOU | DK: $9.7k, FD: $8.9k | at OKC

SF/PF Jimmy Butler, GSW | DK: $8k, FD: $8k | at LAL

SF Rui Hachimura, LAL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.2k | vs. GSW

PF/C Al Horford, GSW | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.8k | at LAL

PF/C Jabari Smith Jr., HOU | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5k | at OKC

SF Alex Caruso, OKC | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.7k | vs. HOU (Preferred if starting)

PF/C Jarred Vanderbilt, LAL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.1k | vs. GSW

SF/PF Jake LaRavia, LAL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. GSW

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Deandre Ayton, LAL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7k | vs. GSW

Ayton was the biggest acquisition for the Lakers this offseason. He missed plenty of action with various injuries last season, ultimately playing only 40 games, and his attitude and on-court effort level have been a topic of discussion for a while. But, perhaps with a new team in a major market, Ayton will decide he likes playing basketball and lock in to begin his Lakers tenure. Ayton put up a strong 1.10 FPPM a season ago with the Trailblazers while taking on a 21.6% USG%, which is a quality usage rate for a center. The assumption will be that he will take on a similar usage rate with the Lakers, at least while LeBron James remains on the sidelines for a few weeks. His best pathway to offensive success will be to drop in easy lob buckets facilitated by Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves while being the primary rebounder and shot blocker on the defensive side. Ayton has averaged a double-double in all seven of his NBA seasons, and he put forth some promising results in the preseason (8.8 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 2.8 STL+BLK/gm, 1.8 APG across 24.1 Min/gm), which suggests his double-double streak should continue heading into the 2025-26 season. The Warriors will also have a small lineup by NBA standards. That could mean one of two things for Ayton -- either he dominates the paint and the glass, or his minutes take a hit if the Lakers decide to match the Warriors’ smaller, faster style of play. Time will tell, but we’ll head into the season opener anticipating the former outcome to be true.

C Steven Adams, HOU | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.9k | at OKC

Official starting lineups have not been released at the time of this writing, but the reports are that Steven Adams will be in as a starter tonight as part of the Rockets’ All-Tall rotation. Entering his age-32 season, Adams isn’t likely to play 30+ minutes even when he does start. Fortunately, he is still a guy who can pour on the fantasy points at a high clip. In three starts last season, he averaged a sturdy 1.24 FPPM across 23.7 Min/gm. Considering he averaged 20.2 Min/gm in his two preseason appearances, one would assume that he’ll handle at least that same amount of minutes tonight in a meaningful game. One of Adams’ starts from last season did happen to come against this OKC team. In that game, Adams put up eight points, 12 rebounds, two steals, and a block across 23 minutes, resulting in 29.0 DKFP/31.4 FDFP. Pending a similar performance this evening, Adams could end up being one of the better values on the slate.

Other Centers to Consider

C Alperen Sengun, HOU | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.1k | at OKC

C Isaiah Hartenstein, OKC | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.8k | vs. HOU

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we have rolled out Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks, UnderDog Fantasy, and other prop apps/sites!

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

_{Terms: Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling, and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER. Using an affiliate offer will help support LineStar who may receive a commission fee from the referral. Other conditions may apply, please see link for full details.}