Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter/X & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Thursday brings somewhat of a reprieve from the ultra-small slates we’ve had all week, as we finally get a more functional four-gamer tonight. We’ll also have some extra time to get our ducks in a row, since the first games do not tip off until 8:00 ET. The matchups suggest a slate that could get lopsided quickly – three of the four games carry spreads of 9.5 points or more – so blowout risk could factor into your roster-construction approach, though we shouldn’t go into this slate thinking every sizable underdog is going to roll over. The injury report isn’t overly chaotic, but it is impactful: most major absences are already confirmed, and only a few questionable tags remain for players like AJ Green and Jordan Poole. Things will feel even more normal tomorrow, with seven games on the Friday NBA schedule, so the small slate slog is nearly over! For now, let’s see what we can cook up for this four-gamer. Best of luck!

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Today’s Key Injuries 🚑

^{Note: NBA injury reports can be fickle and often update throughout the day. Be sure to stay up-to-date on all injury news leading up to tip-off as the list below may be a bit outdated by the time you’re reading this.}

^{Additional Note: Players who have yet to play this season will be excluded from the injury report, unless they have either a probable, questionable, or doubtful injury designation, with some amount of chance to make their season debut. Injured players who have been out for an extended period of time and/or are not expected to play for a month-plus will also be excluded.}

• Clippers: D. Jones Jr. - OUT

• Rockets: T. Eason - OUT

• Celtics: C. Boucher - OUT

• Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - OUT, AJ Green - Questionable

• Trailblazers: J. Holiday - OUT, D. Clingan - OUT, R. Williams - Questionable, H. Yang - Questionable

• Pelicans: Z. Williamson - OUT, J. Poole - Questionable

• Nuggets: A. Gordon - OUT, C. Braun - OUT, J. Strawther - OUT

• Kings: D. Sabonis - OUT, Z. LaVine - OUT, D. Schroder - Doubtful

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Jamal Murray, DEN | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9k | at SAC

Denver carries the highest implied total on the slate (125.0), and Murray is a major reason why. He’s been in excellent form, clearing 48 DKFP in three straight games and flashing a massive ceiling with that 72.0 DKFP eruption in Indiana last week. His per-minute efficiency has climbed as well, up to 1.39 FPPM over his last five games compared to his 1.29 season average. This matchup is also tailor-made for guards who can score at all three levels – Sacramento ranks 26th in DvP vs. starting point guards this season and has dipped to 29th over their last five. With Denver rolling and Murray locked into heavy usage when the games stay competitive, he profiles as one of the stronger top-tier guard spends on the slate.

PG Kevin Porter Jr., MIL | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.5k | vs. BOS

Kevin Porter Jr. continues to carry a significant offensive burden for Milwaukee with Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) still sidelined, and he’s been remarkably steady since returning to the lineup. Across his five starts, KPJ has averaged an excellent 1.39 FPPM and has dipped below 41 DKFP only once, which was in his first game back, where he played only 25 minutes. His ceiling flashed in a big way on Saturday when he torched Detroit for 59 DKFP on a 32/4/6 line with four steals and a block. He also stands to benefit if AJ Green (shoulder/questionable) sits. In the 86 minutes played with both Giannis and Green off the floor this season, Porter has elevated his per-minute output to an elite 1.49 FPPM. This matchup is not prohibitive either – Boston has been only middle-of-the-road against starting point guards lately, ranking 20th in DvP over their last 10 games. Porter is clearly more appealing on DraftKings, where he’s nearly $1,000 cheaper than he is on FanDuel, but remains a perfectly viable tournament play on FD as well, especially if Green is ruled out. His role, shot volume, and ability to contribute across the board make him one of the steadier mid-range guard options on this four-gamer.

PG/SG Malik Monk, SAC | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.3k | vs. DEN

Malik Monk’s playing time has been all over the place this season, but with Zach LaVine out and Dennis Schroder (hip/doubtful) likely joining him, Monk has a real shot to enter the starting lineup for the first time this year. While he’s thrived as a sixth man throughout his career, Monk has historically been very effective when starting – across his last 20 starts, he has averaged 18.5 points, 6.2 assists, 4.2 rebounds, and 36.2 DKFP per game. Anything north of 30 DKFP would be excellent value at these price tags, and Monk has produced a solid 1.07 FPPM in the minutes he has shared the floor without LaVine, Schroder, or Domantas Sabonis this season. He has also been significantly better at home, averaging a massive +56.9% more fantasy production in Sacramento than on the road, and his minutes have stabilized at home as well. If he continues to come off the bench, he takes a slight downgrade – and with the Kings tipping off at 10 p.m. ET, we won’t know the starting lineup until the earlier games are already underway. Even so, it’s hard to envision Monk not seeing at least mid-20s minutes tonight, and that makes him one of the more attractive value guard plays on the slate.

Other Guards to Consider

PG/SF Deni Avdija, POR at NOP

PG James Harden, LAC at HOU

SG Trey Murphy III, NOP vs. POR (Slight boost if Poole remains out)

PG Russell Westbrook, SAC vs. DEN

PG/SG Derrick White, BOS at MIL

SG/SF Shaedon Sharpe, POR at NOP

SG Cameron Johnson, DEN at SAC

PG/SG Aaron Holiday, HOU vs. LAC

SG/SF Keon Ellis, SAC vs. DEN

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF Jaylen Brown, BOS | DK: $9.9k, FD: $9.7k | at MIL

Brown’s salaries have climbed to season highs on both sites, but it’s hard to argue against the rise given how dominant he has been as the clear-cut No. 1 option with Jayson Tatum (Achilles) sidelined for the season. Brown has topped 50 DKFP in seven straight games, averaging 57.2 DKFP per outing on outstanding efficiency: 1.50 FPPM with a hefty 35.3% usage rate during that span. He is posting a career-best 29.1 PPG overall this season. This game against Milwaukee should bring out another heavy workload, and it’s a great individual matchup for Brown as the Bucks check in at 26th in DvP versus starting small forwards. With the NBA Cup shaking up the NBA scheduling drastically this week, many teams have received plenty of off days. Boston is one of those teams – they haven’t played a game since Sunday and do not play again until next Monday. That’s worth pointing out, as Boston should be well-rested and ready to give their main guys huge minutes. If the Bucks (+9.5) can keep this thing competitive, Brown may very well push for 40 minutes tonight. The price tag is steep, but the combination of role, form, and ceiling keeps him firmly in play as one of the top forward spends on the slate.

SF DeMar DeRozan, SAC | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.6k | vs. DEN

DeRozan has clearly taken a step back in his age-36 season, with his scoring down to 18.0 PPG – his lowest mark since 2011-12. Still, he’s shown flashes of solid production lately, and Sacramento will need him to take on a larger role with LaVine, Sabonis, and Schroder all sidelined tonight. His season-long metrics are modest (0.90 FPPM on 20.8% USG%), but the context shifts meaningfully when those three Kings players are off the floor. Across 110 minutes in that split, DeRozan has jumped to 1.17 FPPM with a team-leading 27.9% usage rate. If he pairs that expanded usage with even average peripherals, and if the Kings (+10.5) can keep this game competitive, DeRozan has a path to one of his better games of the season. The mid-$6k price points also make him far easier to click than the mid-$7k tags he carried earlier in the year.

SF/SG Tim Hardaway Jr., DEN | DK: $4k, FD: $4.2k | at SAC

Hardaway profiles as one of the clearer salary-savers on this four-game slate. He’s logged at least 27 minutes in seven straight games and has scored in double figures in each of them, with his last five producing 15.6 PPG and 24.2 DKFP/gm. The peripheral upside is limited, but his scoring volume alone often gets him across the value line at these low-$4k salaries. With Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, and Julian Strawther still out, Denver’s wing rotation remains thin, making another 26-30 minutes a highly reasonable expectation for Hardaway. The matchup helps, too – Sacramento has ranked 24th against reserves over their last five games and 29th versus bench small forwards.

Other Forwards to Consider

SF/SG Kevin Durant, HOU vs. LAC

SF Kawhi Leonard, LAC at HOU

PF Keegan Murray, SAC vs. DEN

PF/C Derik Queen, NOP vs. POR

SF/PF Jerami Grant, POR at NOP

SF/PF Peyton Watson, DEN at SAC

PF/C Bobby Portis, MIL vs. BOS

PF Jordan Walsh, BOS at MIL

SF Herbert Jones, NOP vs. POR

PF/C Precious Achiuwa, SAC vs. DEN

SF/PF Nique Clifford, SAC vs. DEN

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $12.9k, FD: $12.8k | at SAC

No surprise here: Jokic is the premier spend-up option on this slate. He’s scored 50+ DKFP in every game this season and continues to post outrageous efficiency at 1.93 FPPM while averaging 67.5 DKFP per contest. Sacramento has been one of the league’s softest matchups for opposing centers, and without Sabonis, the path of least resistance for Denver’s offense runs straight through Jokic. Over their last 20 games, the Kings rank dead last in FPPG allowed to starting centers – facing Jokic three times already hasn’t helped. In those three meetings, Jokic has cleared 68.75 DKFP every time, including a 44/13/7, 72.75-DKFP masterpiece on Nov. 22 across 37 minutes. Denver lost that game, but Jokic was dominant in every phase, and the matchup arguably gets even easier tonight. The salaries are steep, but with enough value available and raw points at a premium on a four-gamer, Jokic remains the most reliable lineup anchor you can roster.

C Robert Williams, POR | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.5k | at NOP

We’ll need to get confirmation that Robert Williams (illness/questionable) is active tonight but, assuming he is, he would represent a strong value at the center position with usual the starter, Donovan Clingan (leg/out), sidelined. Williams got the start last Friday with Clingan out, and went on to post eight points, 14 boards, five blocks, and an assist (36.0 DKFP) across 30 minutes. He has always been a strong per-minute producer, and that hasn’t changed this season with his 1.17 FPPM average. Minutes and health have always been the big issues. But if he can shake whatever illness he’s dealing with and suit up tonight, he’d likely be in line for 25-30 minutes. And he would draw an elite matchup, with the Pelicans ranking 28th in DvP and allowing 1.34 FPPM/39.2 FPPG to starting centers this season.

Other Centers to Consider

PF/C Alperen Sengun, HOU vs. LAC

C Neemias Queta, BOS at MIL

C Hansen Yang, POR at NOP (Currently questionable - Preferred if Williams is out)

C Jonas Valanciunas, DEN at SAC

C Duop Reath, POR at NOP (Only if R. Williams and/or Yang are out)

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we have rolled out Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks, UnderDog Fantasy, and other prop apps/sites!

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter/X or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!