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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Picks 12/13 | Back to Business with a Normal-Sized Slate!
Top DFS Plays & Pick 'Ems for Today's NBA Action!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
Pick’Em Prop Offers 12/13/24 💸
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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
After trudging through small slates all week, we finally get an NBA slate with some sustenance! A six-game main slate will hit DraftKings (excludes the two late games) and FanDuel will get the full menu with an eight-game main slate. There are plenty of key injury impacts to account for on this slate with several important “questionable” players to monitor. Let’s keep the bad luck at bay this Friday the 13th and crush this slate! Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries
Wizards: K. Kuzma - OUT, M. Brogdon - OUT, C. Kispert - OUT, K. George - OUT
Cavs: E. Mobley - Questionable, I. Okoro - Probable
Pacers: B. Sheppard - OUT, A. Nesmith - OUT
76ers: C. Martin - OUT, A. Bona - OUT
Hornets: L. Ball - OUT, M. Bridges - Questionable, T. Salaun - Questionable, T. Mann - OUT, S. Curry - Questionable
Bulls: N. Vucevic - Questionable, Z. LaVine - Probable, J. Giddey - Questionable, P. Williams - Questionable, L. Ball - Probable
Nets: C. Thomas - OUT, Z. Williams - OUT
Grizzlies: Z. Edey - Doubtful, V. Williams Jr. - OUT
Lakers: A. Davis - Probable, L. James - OUT, A. Reaves - Probable, J. Hayes - OUT
Timberwolves: None
Clippers: D. Jones Jr. - OUT, T. Mann - OUT, K. Brown - OUT
Nuggets: J. Murray - Questionable, C. Braun - Probable, A. Gordon - Probable, D. Saric - OUT
Late Game Injury Report (FanDuel Main Slate Only)
Suns: None
Jazz: L. Markkanen - Probable, J. Clarkson - Probable, S. Mykhailiuk - OUT
Spurs: S. Castle - OUT, K. Johnson - OUT, Z. Collins - OUT, T. Jones - OUT
Trailblazers: D. Ayton - Questionable, R. Williams - Questionable, D. Clingan - Questionable, D. Reath - Questionable
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG Ja Morant, MEM | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.8k | vs. BKN
Spending up at guard isn’t overly intriguing on this slate but Ja Morant does pique some interest. The Grizzlies have taken it easy on the oft-injured superstar’s minutes -- Morant has averaged just 28.1 Min/gm in his 14 games this season. However, before sitting out the second leg of a back-to-back, Morant played a season-high 34 minutes in his most recent start against the Celtics. He responded with a monster 32-point performance while falling one assist and rebound shy of a triple-double and posting 61.25 DKFP/59.3 FDFP. Morant has averaged an elite 1.51 FPPM this season and the Nets are a poor 25th in DEFRTG. Like many teams returning to action today, the Grizzlies also haven’t played in five days, so they should be well-rested. There’s no guarantee that Morant’s minutes will continue to ramp up but if he does in fact touch mid-30s minutes tonight, he may bring another huge DFS score to lineups.
PG Vasilije Micic, CHA | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.8k | at CHI
With LaMelo Ball sidelined, Vasilije Micic has stepped into the interim starting point guard role. He has excelled lately, averaging 15.0 points, 9.3 assists, and 2.7 rebounds in 34+ minutes per game over his last three outings. Micic has produced 0.94 FPPM during this stretch and remains fairly underpriced for his floor and upside. He also draws a premium matchup against the Bulls, who rank 27th in defensive efficiency and play at the fastest pace in the league.
PG/SG Andrew Nembhard, IND | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.7k | at PHI
Andrew Nembhard is back in the lineup for the Pacers and saw his workload ramp up to 31.7 minutes in his most recent game. He was eased in during his first three outings, playing under 22 minutes in every contest. He’s posted 1.00 FPPM since returning, offering solid upside at these $4k salaries. Even at his season-long average of 0.78 FPPM, Nembhard projects as a quality value play if he continues to log 30+ minutes.
Other Guards to Consider
PG James Harden, LAC at DEN
PG/SG Donovan Mitchell, CLE vs. WAS
SG/SF Zach LaVine, CHI vs. CHA (Potential boost pending CHI injury report)
PG Darius Garland, CLE vs. WAS
SG/SF Norman Powell, LAC at DEN
PG D’Angelo Russell, LAL at MIN
PG Kevin Porter Jr., LAC at DEN
PG/SG Donte DiVincenzo, MIN vs. LAL
SG/SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker, MIN vs. LAL
FanDuel Main Slate Only
SG/SF Devin Booker, PHX at UTA
PG Tyus Jones, PHX at UTA
SG Devin Vassell, SAS at POR
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
SF/PF Cameron Johnson, BKN | DK: $7k, FD: $6.8k | at MEM
With Cam Thomas sidelined, Cameron Johnson has stepped up, posting 1.13 FPPM in six full games without Thomas. He’s seen a notable usage bump (+3.93%) with both Thomas and Ziaire Williams (knee/out) sidelined this season and faces a favorable matchup against the fast-paced Grizzlies (2nd in pace). The Nets haven’t played since Sunday and Johnson has averaged +29% more FPPG when well-rested.
PF/C Alexandre Sarr, WAS | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.1k | at CLE
The 3-19 Wizards have no real chance of winning this game against the 21-4 Cavs, as if the 17-point spread wasn’t an obvious indication. However, they have nothing to lose by giving their rookie and No. 2 overall pick Alex Sarr extended run even in blowouts. Sarr has spiked for several big games this season and he should take on more of a featured role given the current injury situation for Washington. With K. Kuzma, M. Brogdon, C. Kispert, and K. George (all out tonight) off the floor this season, Sarr has seen a significant +13.2 FP per 32-minute increase. The Cavs haven’t been defending starting power forwards well, ranking 27th versus the position L20Games. Sarr did miss the Wizards’ previous two games with a back injury but has had plenty of time to heal up so we shouldn’t expect him to play with any major restrictions this evening.
PF/C Brandon Clarke, MEM | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.9k | vs. BKN
Clarke is on the heels of two of his best performances of the season, posting 40.0 DKFP/42.6 FDFP two games ago, followed up by 27.75 DKFP/28.4 FDFP in the previous game. He’s not playing big minutes but typically averages right around an FPPM. Clarke receives a plus match-up versus the Nets who are dead last in rebounding% and rank 22nd versus starting PFs L10Games.
Other Forwards to Consider
PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE vs. WAS (Currently questionable)
PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM vs. BKN
SF/PF Michael Porter Jr., DEN vs. LAC
PF Santi Aldama, MEM vs. BKN
SF/PF Rui Hachimura, LAL at MIN
SF Bilal Coulibaly, WAS at CLE
PF/C Naz Reid, MIN vs. LAL
SF/PF Justin Champagnie, WAS at CLE
SF/PF Georges Niang, CLE vs. WAS (Preferred if Mobley is out)
SF Jaden McDaniels, MIN vs. LAL
SF/SG Jordan Miller, LAC at DEN
FanDuel Main Slate Only
PF/C John Collins, UTA vs. PHX
PF Jeremy Sochan, SAS at POR
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.6k | vs. IND
Center is arguably the most loaded position on this slate so getting one of the studs into your lineups feels like it should be a priority. Embiid has certainly fallen out of the favor of many NBA fans and DFS players alike, but it is difficult to ignore his $9,500 salary on DraftKings. At his best, he’s an $11k-$12k sort of player and he did play 33 minutes in his last start on Sunday despite returning from yet another injury absence. This will be just his second home game of the season and I’m sure a big game (plus a victory) will go a long way in quelling the disgruntled boobirds in Philly.
C Jonas Valanciunas, WAS | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.9k | at CLE
We know J-Val isn’t usually going to play big minutes but he’s been cracking the 30-minute threshold more often now that he’s a regular starter. He’s an elite per-minute scorer, averaging 1.48 FPPM across his last five starts. Even with the Wizards being completely out-matched versus the Cavs, Valanciunas could erupt for 40+ FP even if he only plays around 25 minutes. If the Wizards bump him out of the starting lineup, for some reason, I’ll probably take a pass on him.
Other Centers to Consider
C Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. LAC
C Anthony Davis, LAL at MIN
C Ivica Zubac, LAC at DEN
C Jarrett Allen, CLE vs. WAS (Boost if Mobley is out)
C Jalen Smith, CHI vs. CHA (Boost if Vucevic is out)
C Jay Huff, MEM vs. BKN
FanDuel Main Slate Only
PF/C Victor Wembanyama, SAS at POR
C Walker Kessler, UTA vs. PHX
C Jusuf Nurkic, PHX at UTA
PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
No picks from me today but, as usual, there are some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!
🔥 Props AI 🔥
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!