Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter/X & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

NBA DFS Show & Props w/ Tyler Wiemann

No DFS video today but be sure to check out Tyler’s props for tonight!

🏀 Check out LineStar’s YouTube Shorts Page for Tyler’s latest prop bets! 🏀

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

The NBA Cup tournament has come to a close, which means we will finally get back to more “normal” NBA slates soon… but not quite yet! We only have a two-gamer on the board today, but tomorrow’s schedule is packed with 12 games lined up. Both games will tip off at 8:00 ET this evening, which is convenient since a very impactful, questionable designation (Anthony Edwards) looms large. I don’t have high hopes for that MEM/MIN game, but that could be where we find the most value due to injury situations. The CLE/CHI matchup should be the more exciting of the two games, given its fast pace, hefty 242.5 total, and fairly close spread (CLE -5.5). But enough talk. Let’s dive into this two gamer. Best of luck!

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Today’s Key Injuries 🚑

^{Note: NBA injury reports can be fickle and often update throughout the day. Be sure to stay up-to-date on all injury news leading up to tip-off as the list below may be a bit outdated by the time you’re reading this.}

^{Additional Note: Players who have yet to play this season will be excluded from the injury report, unless they have either a probable, questionable, or doubtful injury designation, with some amount of chance to make their season debut. Injured players who have been out for an extended period of time and/or are not expected to play for a month-plus will also be excluded.}

• Cavs: E. Mobley - OUT, S. Merrill - OUT, L. Nance Jr. - OUT

• Bulls: A. Dosunmu - Questionable

• Grizzlies: J. Morant - DOUBTFUL, Z. Edey - OUT, C. Spencer - OUT, J. Konchar - OUT, B. Clarke - Questionable (would be season debut)

• Timberwolves: A. Edwards - Questionable, M. Conley - OUT

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

SG Donovan Mitchell, CLE | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.7k | at CHI

With Evan Mobley (calf/out) off the floor this season, Donovan Mitchell’s offensive role has ramped up in a big way. In those minutes, Mitchell’s usage rate jumps from an already-strong 31.7% to an eye-popping 41.9%, while his per-minute production climbs from 1.35 to 1.50 FPPM. That kind of workload lands in elite territory, especially on a two-game slate where raw points matter more than usual. Mitchell hasn’t had any issues carrying the offense this season, averaging a career-high 30.7 PPG while maintaining efficiency and contributing across the board with quality peripherals. This matchup only adds fuel to the fire. Chicago plays at the second-fastest pace in the league, Cleveland ranks ninth overall (and they’ve bumped up to third in pace when playing on the road), and the Bulls have allowed the ninth-most FPPG to shooting guards over their last 20 games. The Cavs own the top implied team total on the slate, and Mitchell is clearly the engine driving it. He’s the most expensive player on the board today, but he also leads all players in both LineStar and consensus projections, so he’ll be tough to get away from this evening.

PG Darius Garland, CLE | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.2k | at CHI

We’ll stay in the Cavs’ backcourt for the mid-range guard play. Garland steps into a much more aggressive offensive role for Cleveland with Mobley out of the picture tonight. The on/off splits are dramatic – his usage has jumped from 20.4% to 36.4% with Mobley off the floor, and his per-minute production has climbed from 0.89 to 1.19 FPPM. That showed up immediately last game, which Mobley also missed, as Garland logged 35+ minutes for the second straight outing and erupted for 45.5 DKFP against Charlotte. The efficiency has been shaky for much of the season, but the volume and role are now exactly where you want them for DFS purposes. Garland should function as the clear No. 2 scoring option behind Mitchell while also handling primary facilitating duties. Add in a pace-up matchup against Chicago, and Garland profiles as one of the stronger mid-range guard targets on this two-game slate. I expect many, perhaps most, lineups will begin with Garland and Mitchell slotted in at PG and SG, but it just seems very likely that those two will end up as optimal plays, so it’s probably worth differentiating elsewhere for tournament lineups.

SG/SF Vince Williams Jr., MEM | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4.1k | at MIN

The Grizzlies will be thin in the backcourt tonight, with Ja Morant (ankle) downgraded from questionable to doubtful – meaning he’ll likely join Cam Spencer (personal) and John Konchar (thumb) on the sidelines. Starting center Zach Edey (ankle) will also miss his third straight game. These absences should push Vince Williams Jr. back into the starting lineup, where, even though he doesn’t have PG eligibility on DK, he’s expected to operate as the primary point guard. Williams delivered several strong performances in recent weeks while filling in for Morant, routinely landing in the mid-30s DKFP range despite often playing only mid-20s minutes. With PG/SG Cam Spencer now sidelined for the first time this season, it would be surprising if Williams doesn’t push toward at least 30 minutes tonight. He’s averaged an excellent 1.17 FPPM with Morant, Spencer, and Konchar off the floor this season – and that is pulled from a healthy 200+ minute sample size. As long as the minutes cooperate, Williams is well-positioned to return 6x value or better.

Other Guards to Consider

SG Anthony Edwards, MIN vs. MEM (Currently questionable)

PG Josh Giddey, CHI vs. CLE

PG Donte DiVincenzo, MIN vs. MEM (Preferred if Edwards is out)

SG Cedric Coward, MEM at MIN

PG/SG Bones Hyland, MIN vs. MEM (Only if Edwards is out + Hyland starts again)

PG/SG Lonzo Ball, CLE at CHI

SG/SF Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, MEM at MIN

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Naz Reid, MIN | DK: $6.9k, FD: $6.7k | vs. MEM

Reid continues to play stellar basketball off the Timberwolves’ bench and has turned it up another notch lately. Over his last five games, he has reached at least 36.2 DKFP in four of them while averaging 16.4 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.6 STL+BLK/gm, and 1.19 FPPM. He’s been notably more productive at home, where he’s averaging +22.4% more FPPG and shooting 40.7% from three. The matchup also checks out, as Memphis ranks 26th in DvP versus bench units this season. Reid’s bench role does introduce some minute volatility, but he’s still a strong bet to approach starter-level run – likely in the 30–32 minute range. He would benefit further if Anthony Edwards (foot/questionable) misses a third straight game, as Reid jumps from 0.87 FPPM and a 16.8% USG% to 1.21 FPPM and a 24.3% USG% with Edwards off the floor. That said, on a short slate like this one, Reid remains viable even if Edwards returns.

SF Jaylen Wells, MEM | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.4k | at MIN

Wells has been delivering steady, reliable production of late, averaging 0.96 FPPM while logging close to 30 minutes per game over his last five outings. He’s scored 15+ points in six straight games and in eight of his last nine overall. Across that nine-game stretch, he’s been extremely efficient as a scorer, shooting 58.6% from the field and an excellent 52.3% from three. Assuming this game stays competitive, Wells should push into the low-to-mid 30s in minutes, with added shot volume likely given how shorthanded the Grizzlies are right now. If the efficiency holds anywhere near recent levels, Wells looks like a dependable option in the $5k range on both sites.

PF/C Brandon Clarke, MEM | DK: $3k, FD: $3.9k | at MIN

Clarke is a clear risk-reward option, as he has yet to appear in a game this season after offseason knee surgery and carries a questionable tag into tonight. That said, the fact that he’s even questionable suggests a season debut could be on the table. If active, he’s unlikely to see a full workload in his first game back, but a minutes projection in the mid-teens is reasonable, and Clarke has long been a strong per-minute contributor. Over his last 20 games off the bench, he averaged a very solid 1.16 FPPM. With Memphis down multiple starters and important bench players, Clarke could carve out a meaningful role right away. And he’s particularly intriguing at his stone-minimum $3,000 salary on DraftKings, and he would provide massive roster flexibility if he’s cleared to play.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF Julius Randle, MIN vs. MEM (Boost if Edwards is out)

PF/C Santi Aldama, MEM at MIN

SF/SG Jaylon Tyson, CLE at CHI

SF/SG Kevin Huerter, CHI vs. CLE (Preferred if Dosunmu is out)

PF/C Dean Wade, CLE at CHI (Assuming he starts again)

PF/C Patrick Williams, CHI vs. CLE

SF Isaac Okoro, CHI vs. CLE

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Rudy Gobert, MIN | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.2k | vs. MEM

Gobert continues to carry a wide range of outcomes that are almost entirely tied to his minutes. Over his last six games, he has averaged a sharp 1.24 FPPM while shooting 80.0% from the field and pulling down 11.0 RPG, showing that the per-minute production is very much still intact. When the minutes go his way, the ceiling is obvious – he’s topped 50 DKFP twice in that six-game span – but there are still games where he gets capped closer to 20-22 minutes and struggles to hit value. LineStar has him projected for around 30 minutes tonight, which puts him squarely in play on a slate where center options are limited. Memphis has been tough on centers (9th in DvP L20Games), but the outlook for Gobert is a little better with Zach Edey out with an ankle injury.

C Jarrett Allen, CLE | DK: $6k, FD: $6.1k | at CHI

Similar to Gobert, Allen’s season-long results have been volatile, but the underlying per-minute production remains strong. He’s averaging 1.11 FPPM overall, and that jumps to an elite 1.26 FPPM with Evan Mobley off the floor. Some of the inconsistency can be explained by availability – Allen has already missed 11 games due to injury, which has led to uneven minutes and role fluctuation when he has been active. When he does get extended run, the ceiling is very real, as he has cleared 41.75 DKFP in four of his 16 games played. Wednesday sets up as a favorable spot with Mobley sidelined and a pace-up matchup against Chicago, a team that has struggled mightily to contain opposing centers. Over their last 20 games, the Bulls have allowed the 2nd-most FPPG to starting centers. If Allen pushes into the mid-to-upper 20s in minutes, he carries legitimate 40+ DKFP upside at these price points.

Other Centers to Consider

C Nikola Vucevic, CHI vs. CLE

C Jock Landale, MEM at MIN (Boost if he happens to start)

C Thomas Bryant, CLE at CHI

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we have rolled out Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks, UnderDog Fantasy, and other prop apps/sites!

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter/X or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!