Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Picks 12/19 | Taking on a Goliath Thursday Slate!

Top DFS Plays & Pick 'Ems for Today's NBA Action!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Pick’Em Prop Offers 12/19/24 💸

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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Every team got the night off yesterday following Tuesday’s NBA Cup Championship game (congrats to the Bucks!), but things will return with a bang as 13 games land on the Thursday schedule! As usual, FanDuel will include every game onto their main slate, but DraftKings will be nixing the two 10 o’clock ET tip-offs, bringing their main slate down to 11 games. Regardless of your preferred site, there will be a mighty slate ahead. The injury report is about as packed as you would expect for a slate of this size, so vital injury news will be abundant throughout the afternoon and into the evening. I’m also writing this NBA newsletter earlier than usual, so it’s likely that there will be some additional players who receive injury designations who are not listed below. You don’t need me to tell ya, but just stay on your toes ahead of this behemoth slate! Best of luck!

 

Today’s Key Injuries

  • Hornets: B. Miller - Questionable, T. Mann - OUT

  • Wizards: K. Kuzma - OUT, C. Carrington - Questionable

  • Jazz: S. Mykhailiuk - Questionable

  • Pistons: J. Ivey - Doubtful, T. Harris - Probable, I. Stewart - OUT

  • Thunder: C. Holmgren - OUT

  • Magic: F. Wagner - OUT, P. Banchero - OUT, G. Harris - OUT

  • Bulls: J. Giddey - Questionable, E. Liddell - Questionable, D. Terry - Questionable

  • Celtics: K. Porzingis - Questionable, S. Hauser - Questionable, X. Tillman - Questionable

  • Nets: C. Thomas - OUT, Z. Williams - OUT, T. Watford - OUT

  • Raptors: S. Barnes - Questionable, J. Poeltl - OUT, I. Quickley - OUT

  • Warriors: D. Schroder - Questionable (not injured, but would be his Warriors debut), M. Moody - OUT

  • Grizzlies: J. Morant - Questionable, M. Smart - Doubtful, V. Williams Jr. - OUT, J. Huff - OUT

  • Hawks: T. Young - Probable, O. Okongwu - OUT

  • Spurs: K. Johnson - Probable, Z. Collins - Questionable, T. Jones - Probable

  • Pelicans: Z. Williamson - OUT, B. Ingram - OUT, J. Alvarado - OUT

  • Rockets: A. Sengun - Questionable, T. Eason - Questionable, S. Adams - Questionable

  • Clippers: D. Jones Jr. - Questionable, T. Mann - OUT, K. Brown - OUT

  • Mavs: L. Doncic - OUT, K. Irving - Questionable, J. Hardy - OUT

  • Pacers: B. Sheppard - Questionable, A. Nesmith - OUT

  • Suns: B. Beal - Probable

  • Knicks: A. Hukporti - Questionable

  • Timberwolves: None

 

Late Game Injury Report (FanDuel Main Slate Only)

  • Lakers: A. Davis - Probable, L. James - Questionable, J. Hayes - OUT

  • Kings: D. Sabonis - Questionable, K. Murray - Questionable, K. Huerter - Questionable

  • Nuggets: C. Braun - Questionable, D. Saric - OUT

  • Trailblazers: D. Ayton - Questionable, D. Banton - Questionable

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Cade Cunningham, DET | DK: $9.9k, FD: $9.8k | vs. UTA

Cunningham has been on a roll for much of the season and certainly as of late. The fourth-year guard has turned in two triple-doubles within his last three games and has put up at least 61.25 DKFP/55.8 FDFP in three of his last four. Jaden Ivey (knee/doubtful) is unlikely to suit up tonight along with Isaiah Stewart (knee/out). In over 230 minutes with those two players off the floor this season, Cunningham has handled a team-leading +3.1% increase to his USG% and he has averaged +5.7 more FP per 32 minutes. The match-up is also pristine as Utah has ranked dead last versus starting PGs L10Games and they’re also dead last in DEFRTG on the season. Given the match-up combined with his current form and the likelihood of taking on a heavier workload due to injuries, it’s tough to look past Cunningham at his sub-$10k price points.

 

PG/SG Payton Pritchard, BOS | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.1k | vs. CHI

Outside of his dud against Milwaukee a couple of weeks back, Pritchard has been lighting it up off of the Celtics’ bench scoring at least 33.75 DKFP/30.0 FDFP in his remaining previous eight games… and he’s more often flirting with or exceeding the 40 FP threshold in that stretch. Boston has looked like a well-oiled machine all season, and Pritchard’s recent success has put him firmly in the lead of the Sixth Man of the Year betting market. And he’s often closing games by playing most/all of the fourth quarter, even in non-blowout circumstances. All of that being said, he still plays off of the bench so his minutes are going to be more uncertain than a traditional starter… but then again, Pritchard is not playing like a traditional role player. The Celtics also have a few guys with “questionable” designations -- namely Kristaps Porzingis (heel) and Sam Hauser (back). Neither guy’s availability should have a major impact on Pritchard’s potential minutes, but his offensive usage could see an uptick, especially if Porzingis is ruled out. And, of course, the Celtics are receiving a match-up that we’ve chased all season. The Bulls lead the NBA in pace, they’re 25th in DEFRTG, and they rank 27th versus reserve guards L20Games. So, while there is going to be a bit of volatility attached to any bench player, Pritchard’s recent results help ease much of those concerns and he owns some very reasonable DFS salaries today.

 

PG Spencer Dinwiddie, DAL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. LAC

The Mavs’ backcourt depth takes a hit today. Not only is superstar Luka Doncic (heel) out for this game, but Kyrie Irving (shoulder) carries a “questionable” designation and backup guard Jaden Hardy (ankle) will be missing his fourth consecutive game. Regardless of Irving’s availability, Dinwiddie looks like a safe bet for mid-20s minutes tonight, and he was routinely playing 30+ minutes off of the bench during Luka’s five-game injury absence in late November. Dinwiddie is averaging a so-so 0.80 FPPM on the season, but he has handled a team-high +5.1% USG% increase with both Luka and Hardy off the floor this season. The match-up versus the Clippers is middle-of-the-road but Dinwiddie brings plenty of veteran experience to the court and I just don’t see him disappointing tonight at these current salaries.

 

Other Guards to Consider

PG LaMelo Ball, CHA at WAS (Could still be on some sort of minutes restriction)

PG Ja Morant, MEM vs. GSW (Currently questionable)

PG/SG Kyrie Irving, DAL vs. LAC (Currently questionable)

PG/SG Jordan Poole, WAS vs. CHA

PG/SG Derrick White, BOS vs. CHI

SG/SF Desmond Bane, MEM vs. GSW (Boost if Morant is out)

SG Jalen Green, HOU vs. NOP (Preferred if Sengun is out)

SG/SF Amen Thompson, HOU vs. NOP

PG Jrue Holiday, BOS vs. CHI

SG/SF Klay Thompson, DAL vs. LAC (Boost if Irving is out)

PG Kevin Porter Jr., LAC at DAL

PG/SG Lonzo Ball, CHI at BOS

SG/SF Quentin Grimes, DAL vs. LAC

PG Marcus Sasser, DET vs. UTA

SG/SF Luke Kennard, MEM vs. GSW

 

FanDuel Main Slate Only

PG/SG Malik Monk, SAC vs. LAL

PG/SG Anfernee Simons, POR vs. DEN

 

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Kevin Durant, PHX | DK: $9k, FD: $9k | vs. IND

Paying up at forward perhaps isn’t the most appealing approach on today’s large slate but KD does set up well as a lower-owned option. He has missed a couple of stretches already this season due to injury but Durant and the Suns have had four days to rest up and he wasn’t working under any limitations in his most recent start, ending with 36 minutes. The Suns, who are 23rd in pace, get a sizable boost versus the Pacers, who check in at 6th in pace. The Pacers have also struggled against opposing fours lately, ranking 29th versus starting PFs L5Games. In his age 36 season, Durant’s DFS ceiling may not be what it once was but he still has plenty of 50+ FP potential in the tank and a flat $9,000 is a fair price to pay for the current version of KD.

 

PF Jeremy Sochan, SAS | DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.6k | vs. ATL

There are plenty of great DFS environments on the board today but it wouldn’t shock me if many of the players from this Spurs/Hawks game go overlooked. Not only does this game possess a hefty over/under (233.5) but it also features the closest spread of the day (SAS -1.5). Jeremy Sochan is coming off his best DFS performance of the season, pouring in a 17-point, 15-rebound double-double while netting 46.75 DKFP/45.0 FDFP against the Timberwolves four days ago. When healthy and in the starting lineup, Sochan has generally played more like a mid-$7k player, so I believe we’re getting him at a nice discount today. He has performed better at home this season where he has averaged a sturdy 1.21 FPPM (versus 1.09 FPPM on the road). On a game-by-game basis, Sochan will often rank second on the team in usage rate, behind Wemby, and we have to like his match-up as the Hawks have allowed the most FPPG to PF starters over their L20Games. Barring a blowout or injury, this sets up as a strong spot for Sochan to put up another 40+ FP performance.

 

SF/SG Malik Beasley, DET | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.4k | vs. UTA

I’m not digging many super cheap forwards at the moment (that will probably change once more injury/availability news is released) so we won’t go dumpster diving too far for the value forward spotlight. Beasley carries SF eligibility on both sites, though he should appear as the Pistons’ starting shooting guard in place of the injured Jaden Ivey (knee/doubtful) tonight. Beasley had a big night in Monday’s overtime victory over the Heat, dropping 28 points and 42.25 DKFP/38.6 FDFP across 41 minutes. Beasley has had some nice games off of the Pistons’ bench in recent weeks but his minutes fluctuated quite a bit. However, he is averaging a solid 1.04 FPPM over his last five games as a starter, so (assuming Ivey is out & Beasley starts) we can feel better about rolling him out now that he should be in line for 30+ minutes. And, to the same point made in the Cade Cunningham spotlight, the Jazz have been an excellent match-up for opposing guards.

 

Other Forwards to Consider

SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS vs. CHI

SF/PG RJ Barrett, TOR vs. BKN (Boost if Barnes remains out)

PF Jalen Johnson, ATL at SAS

PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM vs. GSW

PF PJ Washington, DAL vs. LAC

PF Miles Bridges, CHA at WAS

PF Jonathan Kuminga, GSW at MEM

SF Justin Champagnie, WAS vs. CHA

SF/PF De’Andre Hunter, ATL at SAS

PF/C Obi Toppin, IND at PHX

SF Jaden McDaniels, MIN vs. NYK

 

FanDuel Main Slate Only

SF/PF LeBron James, LAL at SAC (Currently questionable)

SF/PF Jerami Grant, POR vs. DEN

 

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Zach Edey, MEM | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.2k | vs. GSW

I have no issues with the Wembys and KATs of the world if you’re looking to spend up at center today, but it looks like we’ll have some decent value options at the position, so I’ll spotlight a couple of cheap center plays. After missing 12 games with an ankle injury, Edey returned to action on Sunday against the Lakers and put up a healthy 32.5 DKFP/32.5 FDFP in 24 minutes off of the Memphis bench. After beginning his rookie season as a starter, Edey has found more consistent success in a reserve role and he has averaged an excellent 1.31 FPPM off of the bench. I’d expect Edey to handle mid-20s minutes again tonight, especially with backup center Jay Huff (ankle/out) missing his first game of the season. Edey sets up as a real potential bargain at a modest $4,300 on DraftKings, but he remains firmly in play on FanDuel as well.

 

PF/C Larry Nance Jr., ATL | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.9k | at SAS

Outside of snagging a random spot start in place of an injured Jalen Johnson on Dec. 8th, Larry Nance Jr. has rarely seen the floor in recent weeks. The Hawks have been content with rolling out their center duo of Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu, and the two have performed well while splitting the center minutes pretty evenly this season. However, with Okongwu (knee/out) set to miss his third game of the season, Nance should be able to soak up some backup center minutes this evening. In the two previous games that Okongwu has sat out this season (Oct. 28th & Nov. 3rd), Nance secured 23 and 25 minutes off the bench while posting 31.75 DKFP/32.6 FDFP (vs. WAS) and 24.0 DKFP/23.2 FDFP (at NOP). On the season, Nance is still averaging over an FPPM and the Hawks have seemed fairly dead set on not giving Capela too many minutes as the starter. So, if we can project Nance for around 20-24 minutes tonight, he can certainly do enough in that time to return value on his very cheap DFS salaries.

 

Other Centers to Consider

C Victor Wembanyama, SAS vs. ATL

C Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK at MIN (Nobody say the thing)

C Ivica Zubac, LAC at DAL

C Goga Bitadze, ORL vs. OKC

C Jalen Duren, DET vs. UTA

C Dereck Lively II, DAL vs. LAC

C Clint Capela, ATL at SAS

C Moritz Wagner, ORL vs. OKC

C Day’Ron Sharpe, BKN at TOR

C Paul Reed, DET vs. UTA

 

FanDuel Main Slate Only

C Nikola Jokic, DEN at POR

PF/C Anthony Davis, LAL at SAC (Boost if LeBron is out)

PF/C Domantas Sabonis, SAC vs. LAL (Currently questionable)

C Donovan Clingan, POR vs. DEN (Only if Ayton is out + Clingan starts)

 

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Zach Edey MORE than 25.0 Fantasy Score

Payton Pritchard MORE than 3.5 Three-Pointers Made

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!