Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler & Shannon

Note: No DFS show today!

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

We’ll get back to more mid-sized NBA slates eventually, but not on this day! A mini three-game slate will close out the workweek. A few injuries, primarily on the Hornets roster, will open up some value today, and Dame Lillard’s (calf/out) absence will have an impact on the Bucks’ rotation as well. Let’s waste no time and jump into the action. Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

• Hornets: L. Ball - OUT, B. Miller - OUT, M. Williams - OUT, T. Mann - OUT

• 76ers: J. Embiid - Questionable, C. Martin - OUT

• Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable, D. Lillard - OUT, K. Middleton - Probable

• Cavs: M. Strus - Questionable (would be season debut), I. Okoro - OUT

• Thunder: C. Holmgren - OUT

• Heat: N. Jovic - Questionable, J. Richardson - Doubtful, P. Larsson - Questionable

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI | DK: $9k, FD: $9.1k | vs. CHA

Maxey has been far from consistent this season but his ceiling still resides firmly in the 60+ FP territory. His usage rate has increased by +3.54 percentage points with Jared McCain (knee/potentially out for the season) and Caleb Martin (shoulder, out for third straight game) both off the floor, and he has also averaged +5.9 more FP per 32 minutes in that split. As you would assume, those figures also rise even further when Joel Embiid (sinus fracture/questionable) is on the sidelines. These two teams just met four days ago and Maxey poured in 40 points and 62.75 DKFP/61.50 FDFP across 40 minutes on a monster 39.1% USG%. Worth noting, Embiid, McCain, and Martin were all out for that game. However, even if Embiid is able to suit up tonight, Maxey still makes plenty of sense as a spend-up target on this small slate.

PG Vasilije Micic, CHA | DK: $4k, FD: $4.2k | at PHI

The Hornets ruled out several players this afternoon, most notably PG LaMelo Ball (injury management) and SG Brandon Miller (ankle). As a result, Micic should step back into the starting lineup and he’s clearly underpriced since LaMelo being ruled out came as a bit of a surprise, thus Micic’s DFS salaries were not able to be properly adjusted in time. LaMelo recently missed a seven-game stretch in which Micic started at PG in each game. As a starter, he averaged a respectable 0.91 FPPM and 27.6 DKFP/25.3 FDFP per game. Barring a total blowout, Micic should be expected to handle a normal mid-30s starter’s minutes workload and 6x (or better) value is highly attainable at these $4k price points. There is no doubt he’ll be major chalk, but he could very well be ‘necessary chalk’ on a three-game slate.

PG Delon Wright, MIL | DK: $3k, FD: $3.5k | at CLE

To go even cheaper, Delon Wright is setting up as another worthy value option at his stone minimum price points on both DK and FD. Wright could find himself in the starting lineup with Damian Lillard ruled out tonight due to a calf injury. Lillard missed a three-game stretch in mid-November -- Wright started in two of those games and played 24 minutes off the bench in the third game. He scored 18.75 DKFP/23.6 FDFP (vs. TOR), 20.5 DKFP/21.8 FDFP (vs. DET), and 28.25 DKFP/31.6 FDFP (at CHA) in those three games. Khris Middleton (illness/probable) had not yet made his season debut at that point, so it’s certainly possible that his likely availability tonight throws a wrench in Wright’s potential as a value target. However, the Bucks are still being very cautious with Middleton’s minutes and workload, so, while Wright would be a preferred target as a starter, it’d be a mild surprise if he doesn’t at least play around 20-24 minutes off of the bench this evening.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC at MIA

PG Tyler Herro, MIA vs. OKC

PG Darius Garland, CLE vs. MIL

SG Kelly Oubre Jr., PHI vs. CHA (Boost if Embiid is out)

SG/SF Alex Caruso, OKC at MIA

PG/SG AJ Green, MIL at CLE

SG Seth Curry, CHA at PHI (Preferred if starting again)

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF Jalen Williams, OKC | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.7k | at MIA

You don’t need me to tell you but Giannis Antetokounmpo is the obvious spend-up at forward today as he should dominate the usage (more so than usual) with Lillard out of commission. However, that will also keep these other pricey forwards at low-ish ownership (by three-game slate standards). Jalen Williams is an intriguing leverage play as he comes off of a dud performance in last night’s low-scoring match-up versus the Magic. This game between the Thunder and Heat isn’t exactly going to be a barn burner, evidenced by the 216.0 over/under. But there is a narrow one-point spread here so this is expected to be the most competitive game of the evening. The match-up may also be sneaky good for Jalen Williams specifically. The Heat have been pretty solid defensively, ranking 10th in DEFRTG, and they’re not an overly fast-paced team, ranking 26th in pace. However, via the LineStar Team DEF tool, we’ll find that Miami has ranked dead last versus starting power forwards over their last five games. OKC doesn’t have many major injury impacts but Jalen Williams has seen the highest uptick in his usage rate ever since center Chet Holmgren (hip) was injured in November. If you’re playing just one lineup or building a cash lineup, Jalen Williams probably shouldn’t be a priority. But he won’t be very popular tonight and it just feels like he’s due for one of those 50-60 FP spike games.

PF Miles Bridges, CHA | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.1k | at PHI

Bridges should be the biggest beneficiary of the LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller absences. He has missed quite a bit of time himself due to injuries this season, so it’s a small sample size, but in 57 minutes with both Ball and Miller off the court, Bridges has seen a huge, team-leading +11.1 percentage points increase to his usage rate and has averaged +12.5 more FP per 32 minutes. Bridges returned from a knee injury three games ago and most recently worked up to 32 minutes in the Hornets’ most recent game last night. As long as the back-to-back factor doesn’t play a major role here, Bridges should be a strong mid-range forward to target this evening. He went for 37.0 DKFP/34.20 FDFP against this same 76ers team on Monday while rocking a team-leading 33.5% USG% -- and that was in just 28 minutes played while both LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller were in the starting lineup.

SF/PF Georges Niang, CLE | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.6k | vs. MIL

Barring further injury news, there isn’t much standout value at forward on this slate but Georges Niang could be more involved tonight due to Isaac Okoro’s (shoulder/out) absence. Niang has averaged over 25 Min/gm in the four previous games that Okoro has sat out and he reached the 30-minute threshold in two of those games. Niang has averaged a solid 0.92 FPPM over his L5Games so, assuming he can get 25-30 minutes this evening, it’s easy to see how he could pay off these current DFS salaries.  

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL at CLE

SF/PF Paul George, PHI vs. CHA

SF/PF Jimmy Butler, MIA vs. OKC

PF/C Bobby Portis, MIL at CLE

SF/SG Luguentz Dort, OKC at MIA

SF/PF Dean Wade, CLE vs. MIL (Assuming he starts)

SF/SG Gary Trent Jr., MIL at CLE

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Brook Lopez, MIL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.3k | at CLE

I was fairly surprised when I went to the LineStar usage matrix tool and saw the impacts on Bucks players when Damian Lillard (calf/out) is off the court. It is Brook Lopez who leads the team with a +6.3% USG% boost and +11.4 FP per 32-minute increase with Lillard off the floor this season. And it’s not exactly a small sample size (137 minutes). Looking back on that three-game stretch where Lillard was out in mid-November, we’ll see that Lopez spiked in two of those games with performances of 37.25 DKFP/40.9 FDFP (vs. TOR) and 56.5 DKFP/60.6 FDFP (vs. DET). So, while he remains a fairly volatile player, Lopez should be on the radar tonight and he’s not expected to garner a ton of ownership (again, by three-game slate standards) with a 13% pOwn% on DraftKings and 17% pOwn% on FanDuel.

C Nick Richards, CHA | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.6k | at PHI

Nick Richards is another Hornets player who should regain a starting role with Mark Williams (foot) ruled out. Richards has averaged a quality 1.18 FPPM this season, which has ticked up to 1.28 FPPM in his L5Games as a starter. Regardless of whether Joel Embiid plays, this isn’t a stellar match-up as the 76ers rank 3rd versus starting centers L20Games. However, Richards did put up 27.75 DKFP/28.0 FDFP against the 76ers on Monday, and that was playing just 15 minutes off of the bench. As a starter, he should play anywhere from 25 to 35 minutes tonight.

Other Centers to Consider

C Bam Adebayo, MIA vs. OKC

C Isaiah Hartenstein, OKC at MIA

C Andre Drummond, PHI vs. CHA (Only if Embiid is out + Drummond starts)

C Moussa Diabate, CHA at PHI

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Luguentz Dort MORE than 5.5 Rebounds + Assists

Brook Lopez MORE than 26.0 Fantasy Score

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!