Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Picks 12/27 | Running Down Friday's Enticing Eight-Game Slate!

Top DFS Plays & Pick 'Ems for Today's NBA Action!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Pick’Em Prop Offers 12/27/24 💸

Our editors found the top Pick’Em DFS deals so you don’t have to! 

Terms: Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling, and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER. Using an affiliate offer will help support LineStar who may receive a commission fee from the referral. Other conditions may apply, please see link for full details.

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

A quality eight-game main slate will hit the board this Friday. This slate includes several entertaining match-ups, and while the injury report is still fairly busy, only a handful of truly impactful players carry a “questionable” designation pending any further additions. I like how this slate is looking, so let’s get to work! Best of luck!

 

Today’s Key Injuries

  • Knicks: None

  • Magic: P. Banchero - OUT, F. Wagner - OUT, G. Harris - Probable

  • Pacers: A. Nembhard - OUT, O. Toppin - OUT, A. Nesmith - OUT

  • Celtics: K. Porzingis - Questionable, J. Holiday - Questionable

  • Spurs: None

  • Nets: C. Johnson - OUT, C. Thomas - OUT, B. Simmons - OUT, Z. Williams - OUT, D. Finney-Smith - Questionable, T. Watford - OUT

  • Timberwolves: N. Alexander-Walker - Questionable

  • Rockets: D. Brooks - OUT, T. Eason - Questionable

  • Grizzlies: S. Aldama - OUT, M. Smart - OUT, V. Williams Jr. - OUT, J. Huff - Questionable

  • Pelicans: Z. Williamson - OUT, B. Ingram - OUT, J. Alvarado - OUT, J. Hawkins - Questionable

  • Cavs: I. Okoro - OUT, D. Wade - Questionable

  • Nuggets: J. Murray - Probable, A. Gordon - OUT

  • Mavs: L. Doncic - OUT, D. Lively II - Questionable

  • Suns: D. Booker - OUT, G. Allen - OUT

  • Warriors: S. Curry - OUT, D. Green - Doubtful, G. Payton II - OUT

  • Clippers: K. Porter Jr. - Questionable, T. Mann - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG/SG Donovan Mitchell, CLE | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9k | at DEN

This Cavs/Nuggets game is one of the more enticing match-ups of the day and is being pinned with a high 235.5 O/U and close spread (CLE -3). Cleveland typically wins their games by double digits so we haven’t seen Spida Mitchell need to put on a Herculean effort in a little while, though he did post a strong 49.25 DKFP/47.6 FDFP result when these teams met earlier this month. Mitchell plays a combo guard role and it’s worth pointing out that the Nuggets have ranked dead last versus starting guards (PGs + SGs) over their L10Games. It could be a big night for Mitchell and, at the very least, he brings a high floor to lineups this evening.

 

PG/SG Dennis Schroder, GSW | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.7k | at LAC

No Steph Curry (knee injury management/out) tonight while Draymond Green (back/doubtful) and Gary Payton II (calf/out) are also sidelined or, in Green’s case, very unlikely to suit up. That should thrust Dennis Schroder, who was traded from the Nets two weeks ago, back into a primary ball-handling role. Schroder, of course, hasn’t been with his new team for very long but with Curry, Green, and Payton off the floor, he has taken on a notable +4.5% USG% increase. Schroder was typically priced in the high-$6k to mid-$7k salary ranges when he was operating as the Nets’ starting PG, so getting him under $6k on both sites sets him up as a potential bargain.

 

PG Spencer Dinwiddie, DAL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.4k | at PHX

The biggest name on today’s injury report is Luka Doncic, who will miss his ninth game of the season due to a left calf strain. Doncic will reportedly be re-evaluated in one month, so Dallas will be without their superstar for quite some time. Whether it’s as a starter or continuing to play off the bench, Spencer Dinwiddie should take on a sizable role in the Mavs’ backcourt. If the last two games that Doncic sat out are any indication, Dinwiddie would be expected to start. Dinwiddie was in the starting lineup for the Mavs’ two games against the Clippers on Dec. 19th and 21st. In those games, Dinwiddie played 37 and 29 minutes while putting up 40.75 DKFP/44.10 FDFP and 33.75 DKFP/35.60 FDFP on a 23.4% USG%. So if he can provide similar production, he’s squarely underpriced on this slate.

 

Other Guards to Consider

PG/SG Kyrie Irving, DAL at PHX

PG/SG Jamal Murray, DEN vs. CLE

PG Darius Garland, CLE at DEN

SG/SF Desmond Bane, MEM at NOP

SG/SF Amen Thompson, HOU vs. MIN

SG Jalen Green, HOU vs. MIN

SG/SF Devin Vassell, SAS at BKN

PG Scotty Pippen Jr., MEM at NOP

PG Kevin Porter Jr., LAC vs. GSW (Currently questionable)

PG/SG Brandin Podziemski, GSW at LAC (Boost if starting)

SG Trevelin Queen, ORL vs. NYK

PG/SG Kris Dunn, LAC vs. GSW

PG Bones Hyland, LAC vs. GSW (Only if K. Porter Jr. is out)

 

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.4k | vs. IND

Tatum has had a pair of stellar performances in his last couple of starts, highlighted by a monster 43/15/10 triple-double against the Bulls this past Saturday. He will be poised for another big night against the Pacers, who are 7th in pace, a subpar 20th in DEFRTG, and rank 29th versus starting PFs L20Games. If either Kristaps Porzingis (ankle/questionable) or Jrue Holiday (shoulder/questionable) are ruled out, Tatum’s floor and ceiling would theoretically rise. He has taken on a team-leading +5.7% USG% boost with those two players off the floor this season. Even if both of those guys are active, Tatum is still a can’t-miss stud play on this eight-game slate, particularly at his sub-$10k salary on DraftKings.

 

PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.9k | at NOP

JJJ probably doesn’t get as much DFS attention as he deserves. He’s a consistent fantasy scorer who routinely churns out 40+ FP results but remains at a sub-$8k price point. Jackson went for 50.25 DKFP/49.20 FDFP against the Raptors last night while leading the Grizzlies’ starters with a 25.0% USG%. He could also put up some additional shots and pick up a few more minutes with backup PF Santi Aldama (ankle/out) missing tonight’s game. The Grizzlies lead all teams on this slate with a 123.0 implied team total and the Pelicans are 29th in DEFRTG and have ranked 27th versus starting PFs L20Games.

 

SF/PF Jake LaRavia, MEM | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.9k | at NOP

We’ll stay in the Grizzlies' frontcourt for our cheap forward spotlight on Jake LaRavia. He’ll be another candidate to take on some additional minutes and usage with Aldama sidelined. LaRavia owns the third-highest usage rate increase on the team with Aldama and Marcus Smart (finger/out) off the floor this season. He has also just been playing well off the bench lately, averaging an excellent 1.25 FPPM over his previous four games.

 

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Kevin Durant, PHX vs. DAL

PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE at DEN

SF/SG Norman Powell, LAC vs. GSW

SF/PF Michael Porter Jr., DEN vs. CLE

SF/PF Andrew Wiggins, GSW at LAC

PF Jonathan Kuminga, GSW at LAC (Preferred if starting)

SF/SG Klay Thompson, DAL at PHX

PF/C Noah Clowney, BKN vs. SAS

PF/C Precious Achiuwa, NYK at ORL

PF/C Brandon Clarke, MEM at NOP

SF/SG Luke Kennard, MEM at NOP

 

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Victor Wembanyama, SAS | DK: $11k, FD: $11.9k | at BKN

It’s tough to overlook the level that Wemby has been playing lately. He’s averaging a mammoth 1.89 FPPM over his last five starts and is coming off of a season-high 83.0 DKFP/80.60 FDFP Christmas Day performance. The Nets are very shorthanded today and are already among the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. They also check in at 29th versus starting centers L10Games. The second-year phenom should continue to feast in this one.

 

C Trayce Jackson-Davis, GSW | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5k | at LAC

TJD is on a nice little run having started the last three games for the Warriors and scoring no fewer than 29.5 DKFP/30.10 FDFP in that span. He’s up to 1.19 FPPM over his last five games as a starter and the Warriors should need him to play a key role tonight with Curry out and Draymond (doubtful) looking unlikely to play. It’s perhaps not the best match-up but Jackson-Davis won’t have to do a ton in order to pay off these modest DFS salaries.

 

Other Centers to Consider

C Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. CLE

C Ivica Zubac, LAC vs. GSW

C Jarrett Allen, CLE at DEN

C Jusuf Nurkic, PHX vs. DAL

C Zach Edey, MEM at NOP

C Daniel Gafford, DAL at PHX (Preferred if D. Lively II is out)

 

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but there are some great NBA recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!