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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Picks 12/30 | Previewing a Competitive Monday Slate!
Top DFS Plays & Pick 'Ems for Today's NBA Action!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
Pick’Em Prop Offers 12/30/24 💸
Our editors found the top Pick’Em DFS deals so you don’t have to!
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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
A quality seven-game slate will hit the board Monday evening! This slate will feature some fairly even match-ups, with only one game carrying a spread larger than seven points. The injury report isn’t too hectic, but there will still be several key players with “questionable” designations that we’ll need to track. There are only two days left in 2024, so let’s go into the New Year on a high note! Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries
Bulls: Z. LaVine - Probable, J. Giddey - Probable, A. Dosunmu - Doubtful, J. Smith - Questionable
Hornets: L. Ball - Doubtful, B. Miller - Doubtful, C. Martin - Doubtful, T. Mann - OUT
Knicks: J. Brunson - Questionable
Wizards: J. Poole - Questionable, A. Sarr - Questionable, M. Bagley III - OUT, A. Gill - Questionable
Clippers: T. Mann - OUT
Pelicans: Z. Williamson - OUT, B. Ingram - OUT, Y. Missi - Questionable, J. Alvarado - OUT
Nuggets: A. Gordon - OUT
Jazz: J. Collins - OUT, K. George - Questionable
Cavs: I. Okoro - OUT
Warriors: B. Podziemski - OUT, G. Payton II - OUT, M. Moody - Probable
Mavs: L. Doncic - OUT, K. Irving - OUT, D. Lively II - Questionable, N. Marshall - OUT
Kings: None
76ers: J. Embiid - Questionable, A. Drummond - Questionable, K. Lowry - Questionable, KJ Martin - OUT, E. Gordon - Questionable
Trailblazers: J. Grant - Questionable, T. Camara - Questionable, R. Williams - Questionable, D. Banton - Questionable
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.8k | at POR
Maxey has three straight games where he has poured in at least 32 points and 3+ STL+BLKs while averaging 8.7 APG. He has played over 40 minutes in each contest as well. The 12-17 76ers are in the process of turning their season around, winning seven of their last nine games. They’ll find themselves in another winnable match-up tonight as 6.5-point road favorites versus the Trailblazers. It’s a strong individual match-up for Maxey as the Blazers have ranked 26th versus starting PGs L10Games. He could take on a heavier workload if Joel Embiid (foot/face, questionable) is ruled out, but Maxey sets up as a strong high-end guard option regardless of Embiid’s status, and he could very well check in at sub-10% ownership.
PG/SG Jamal Murray, DEN | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.1k | at UTA
Murray has also been cooking lately, scoring at least 49.0 DKFP/48.6 FDFP in four of his last five games. He’ll be in another strong spot for success against the Jazz, who are dead last in DEFRTG and rank 28th versus starting guards L20Games. Murray should also handle a slight usage boost with Aaron Gordon (calf/out) sidelined. This game easily has the highest total of the day with a 240.5 O/U and the Nuggets lead the slate with a 123.8 implied team total. Murray’s DFS salaries may be back on the rise but he still looks like a potential bargain at his current price points.
PG Spencer Dinwiddie, DAL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.2k | at SAC
Dinwiddie appears to have a temporary starting role in the Mavs’ lineup with Luka Doncic (calf/out) sidelined for the next few weeks. Dinwiddie leads the team in usage rate increase (+3.5%) and FP per 32-minute average (+6.4) with Doncic and Naji Marshall (suspension) off the court. He has averaged 17.0 PPG, 1.06 FPPM, and 36.0 DKFP/37.1 FDFP across 33.9 Min/gm in three previous starts this season, so don’t expect Dinwiddie to stay at these low-$5k DFS salaries for long! This game possesses the closest spread of the night (DAL +3.5) so the starters should see plenty of run tonight.
Update: Kyrie Irving has also been ruled out so Dinwiddie looks to be locked into a primary role.
Other Guards to Consider
PG Jalen Brunson, NYK at WAS (Currently questionable)
PG Darius Garland, CLE at GSW
PG Josh Giddey, CHI at CHA
PG Russell Westbrook, DEN at UTA
PG/SG Collin Sexton, UTA vs. DEN (Preferred if K. George remains out)
PG/SG Shaedon Sharpe, POR vs. PHI
SG/SF Klay Thompson, DAL at SAC
PG Scoot Henderson, POR vs. PHI
PG Vasilije Micic, CHA vs. CHI
PG Kevin Porter Jr., LAC at NOP
PG/SG Kris Dunn, LAC at NOP
PG/SG Miles McBride, NYK at WAS (Preferred if J. Brunson is out)
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
PF Miles Bridges, CHA | DK: $7.3k, FD: $6.9k | vs. CHI
LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Cody Martin are all listed as “doubtful” to play tonight -- combined with other injury absences on the Hornets’ roster, Miles Bridges has seen a major +14.6% USG% increase with those players off the floor. Bridges has put up at least 40.5 DKFP/39.1 FDFP in three consecutive games and, most recently, he played 38 minutes in Saturday’s game against the Thunder, so he doesn’t appear to be operating under any restrictions after a recent injury kept him out for 10 games. Unless guys like LaMelo and Miller get upgraded to ‘active’ tonight, Bridges is undoubtedly underpriced in this match-up versus the Bulls (3rd in pace, 25th in DEFRTG). He should be extremely popular on this slate but the upside cannot be ignored.
SF/PF Josh Hart, NYK | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.4k | at WAS
Targeting the Wizards (4th in pace, 28th in DEFRTG) is rarely a bad idea and these two teams just met on Saturday, combining for 268 points in an overtime Knicks victory. One of the key injuries to monitor today involves Jalen Brunson, who is questionable to play due to right calf tightness. While his availability doesn’t impact Josh Hart’s usage very much, it would increase the likelihood of this game staying competitive for all four quarters. Of course, Knicks’ HC Tom Thibodeau is rarely reluctant to give his starters huge minutes even when games trend toward a blowout. Josh Hart’s usage only hovers around 15%, but he always stuffs the stat sheet with boards, assists, blocks, and steals. All-in-all, he’s averaging a hair over 1.00 FPPM this season and should be in line for around 40 minutes this evening.
PF Tidjane Salaun, CHA | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4k | vs. CHI
Back to the shorthanded Hornets we go. While he may not start, Tidjane Salaun has a strong chance to push for 30 minutes this evening, assuming all of the “doubtful” players do indeed sit out. Salaun has only averaged 0.71 FPPM this season, but that is up slightly to 0.79 FPPM L5Games. The Bulls rank 23rd versus PF reserves L10Games and consensus projections have Salaun going for around 24 FP tonight. So, if you need a cheap option, Salaun should push, or exceed, 6x value tonight.
Other Forwards to Consider
PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE at GSW
SF/SG Norman Powell, LAC at NOP
SF/PF Lauri Markkanen, UTA vs. DEN
SF Bilal Coulibaly, WAS vs. NYK
SF/SG Mikal Bridges, NYK at WAS (Boost if Brunson is out)
PF Jonathan Kuminga, GSW vs. CLE
SF/PF Deni Avdija, POR vs. PHI (Preferred if starting)
SF/PF Andrew Wiggins, GSW vs. CLE
PF Patrick Williams, CHI at CHA
SF/PF Dean Wade, CLE at GSW
PF/C Precious Achiuwa, NYK at WAS
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $12k, FD: $12.4k | at UTA
This slate is a little thin on superstars so it hardly seems like a bad idea to just find a way to pay up for Jokic. He perhaps hasn’t been incredibly dominant lately, but he’s still averaging 29.6 PPG L5Games and is two assists per game shy of averaging a triple-double in that span. The Joker already has two strong performances against the Jazz this season and he has also seen a team-leading +2.4% USG% boost with Aaron Gordon off the floor.
C Mark Williams, CHA | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.8k | vs. CHI
Williams still isn’t playing big minutes after missing the first 20 games of the season due to a foot injury, but he has gotten up to 22 and 26 minutes in his last two games -- both season-highs. Williams has been elite on a per-minute basis, averaging an excellent 1.51 FPPM on the season. So, assuming his minutes continue to creep up, he should remain a strong value option. Williams put up 31.25 DKFP/31.8 FDFP in just 17 minutes against the Bulls earlier this month, so he could certainly smash at these current salaries if he is going to be in line for low-to-mid 20s minutes tonight.
Other Centers to Consider
C Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK at WAS (Boost if Brunson is out)
C Joel Embiid, PHI at POR (Currently questionable)
C Domantas Sabonis, SAC vs. DAL
C Ivica Zubac, LAC at NOP
C Jarrett Allen, CLE at GSW
C Walker Kessler, UTA vs. DEN
C Jonas Valanciunas, WAS vs. NYK (Preferred if A. Sarr is out)
C Daniel Gafford, DAL at SAC (Preferred if D. Lively II is out)
C Trayce Jackson-Davis, GSW vs. CLE
PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Walker Kessler MORE than 10.5 Rebounds
Evan Mobley MORE than 17.5 Points
🔥 Props AI 🔥
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Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!