Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter/X & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler Wiemann

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

A compact five-game Thursday slate hits the docket today! No West Coast games again today, so every matchup will be tipping off within a tight one-hour window. It’s a small slate, but there’s no shortage of injury factors. Outside of Minnesota, every team on tonight’s board is dealing with at least one high-impact injury situation, and several teams have multiple key players either ruled out or carrying questionable tags. With high-usage players like Luka Doncic, Steph Curry, Jaylen Brown, Michael Porter Jr., RJ Barrett, and Zion Williamson already sidelined -- plus potential swing pieces like Joel Embiid, Jusuf Nurkic, and a cluster of Warriors dealing with Q-tags -- value could shift quickly as news drops. We’ll primarily need to track what happens with the Warriors and, fortunately, that is one of the 7:00 ET tip-offs, so we should have that info before lock. Best of luck!

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Today’s Key Injuries 🚑

^{Note: NBA injury reports can be fickle and often update throughout the day. Be sure to stay up-to-date on all injury news leading up to tip-off as the list below may be a bit outdated by the time you’re reading this.}

^{Additional Note: Players who have yet to play this season will be excluded from the injury report, unless they have either a probable, questionable, or doubtful injury designation, with some amount of chance to make their season debut. Injured players who have been out for an extended period of time and/or are not expected to play for a month-plus will also be excluded.}

• Celtics: J. Brown - OUT

• Wizards: A. Sarr - OUT, B. Coulibaly - OUT, C. Kispert - OUT, T. Johnson - OUT

• Warriors: Steph Curry - OUT, J. Butler - Questionable, J. Kuminga - Questionable, A. Horford - Questionable, Q. Post - Questionable, T. Jackson-Davis - Questionable

• 76ers: J. Embiid - Questionable, P. George - OUT, K. Oubre Jr. - OUT, T. Watford - OUT

• Jazz: J. Nurkic - Questionable, K. Love - OUT

• Nets: M. Porter Jr. - OUT, C. Thomas - OUT, T. Mann - Probable, D. Powell - OUT

• Lakers: L. Doncic - OUT, M. Smart - OUT

• Raptors: RJ Barrett - OUT, J. Poeltl - OUT, O. Agbaji - OUT

• Timberwolves: None

• Pelicans: Z. Williamson - OUT, J. Poole - OUT, H. Jones - OUT, Y. Missi - OUT

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

SG Austin Reaves, LAL | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.9k | at TOR

With Luka Doncic (personal) sidelined, Reaves steps back into a high-usage role for the Lakers. In the three games he’s played without Luka this season, he averaged a massive 67.2 DKFP across 39.3 minutes/gm with a team-best 35.2% usage rate, clearing 57 DKFP in all three. However, unlike those three games without Luka, LeBron will be active tonight, so Reaves won’t have quite the same workload as those earlier games, but his role still expands significantly with Luka off the floor. This isn’t the friendliest matchup, but sub-$9k price points are still very reasonable for a player who has consistently shown 50+ FP upside whenever he’s asked to shoulder more of the offense.  

PG Payton Pritchard, BOS | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.8k | at WAS

Pritchard draws one of the best matchups on the slate against a Wizards team that has allowed the most FPPG to opposing point guards. He’s been flashing real ceiling lately, topping 40 DKFP in five of his last nine and erupting for 52.25 DKFP on Saturday. For the season, he’s at 32.1 DKFP/gm, but the role expands significantly whenever Jaylen Brown is off the floor. With Brown ruled out, Pritchard’s usage jumps from 19.5% to 27.7%, and his per-minute production climbs from 0.91 to 1.11 FPPM. That’s a meaningful bump, especially for someone who already plays steady minutes (34.0 projected minutes tonight) and isn’t priced like a high-usage guard. He’ll be very popular, but the matchup, pace, and expected role all align here.

SG Gary Payton II, GSW | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.1k | at PHI

With Steph Curry (quadriceps) ruled out for a third consecutive game, Gary Payton II could continue to step into a larger role -- he has delivered 38.75 and 26.25 DKFP in his last two games. Guard value is a bit thin on this slate, so Payton remains firmly in play whether he starts or continues his bench role. Philadelphia has struggled against second-unit shooting guards (22nd in DvP), which helps his case. Payton would also get an additional projections bump if Jimmy Butler (knee/questionable) is unable to suit up. If he does draw a spot start, his path to 6x value becomes even clearer at these low-$4k salaries on both sites.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI vs. GSW (Boost if Embiid is out)

SG Anthony Edwards, MIN at NOP

PG Keyonte George, UTA at BKN

PG/SG Derrick White, BOS at WAS

SG VJ Edgecombe, PHI vs. GSW (Boost if Embiid is out)

PG Donte DiVincenzo, MIN at NOP

PG Egor Demin, BKN vs. UTA

PG Jose Alvarado, NOP vs. MIN

PG/SG Tyrese Martin, BKN vs. UTA

PG Jamal Shead, TOR vs. LAL

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF LeBron James, LAL | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.4k | at TOR

With Luka out for the first time since LeBron made his season debut (Nov. 18th), he should take on a significantly larger share of the Lakers’ offense. His per-minute production jumps from 1.02 FPPM on the season to 1.33 FPPM with Luka off the floor, and through five games, he has averaged 32.9 DKFP in 32 minutes -- that isn’t great for a mid-$8k player, but Luka’s absence simply opens up so much for the remaining core Lakers players. Whether he leans more into scoring or facilitation, LeBron is set up for his best DFS performance of the season. He may not be fully ramped up yet, but he has already hit 34 minutes twice in his five games played and is projected for a solid 32.5 minutes tonight. The game total isn’t flashy, but the 2.5-point spread is the tightest on the slate, which boosts the likelihood he sees full run.

PF Noah Clowney, BKN | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.6k | vs. UTA

Clowney has met or exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last seven games, and he should be one of the main offensive focal points with Cam Thomas still out and Michael Porter Jr. sitting on the second half of the back-to-back. With Porter on the court, Clowney’s usage rate has sat at a middling 17.6%. However, with Porter (and Cam Thomas) sidelined, Clowney’s usage rate jumps to a team-leading 24.7%. The matchup also doesn’t get much better. The Jazz check in at 29th in DvP versus starting power forwards, and this is a major pace-up spot for Brooklyn (29th in pace) as Utah is currently ranked 4th in pace. $5,600 on both sites is a very fair price point for Clowney, given his expected role in a plus matchup.

PF/C Sandro Mamukelashvili, TOR | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.8k | vs. LAL

Mamukelashvili should be in line for a spot start with Jakob Poeltl ruled out for rest purposes. Mamu would operate as the starting center, but carries power forward eligibility on DraftKings. He has averaged a rock-solid 1.05 FPPM on the season and has shown the ability to rack up stats in a hurry, even though he doesn’t typically play more than around 18-20 minutes. The Lakers have been surprisingly stout versus opposing centers, but as long as Mamu logs around 28 minutes, he’ll be a good bet to return value on his sub-$5k salaries.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF Scottie Barnes, TOR vs. LAL

PF Lauri Markkanen, UTA at BKN

SF/PF Saddiq Bey, NOP vs. MIN

PF/C Naz Reid, MIN at NOP

SF Moses Moody, GSW at PHI (Preferred if Butler is out)

SF Ace Bailey, UTA at BKN

PF/C Kyle Filipowski, UTA at BKN (Boost if Nurkic is out)

PF Jordan Walsh, BOS at WAS

SF/PF Sam Hauser, BOS at WAS

PF/C Danny Wolf, BKN vs. UTA

PF Josh Minott, BOS at WAS

PF/C Collin Murray-Boyles, TOR vs. LAL

PF/C Karlo Matkovic, NOP vs. MIN

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Rudy Gobert, MIN | DK: $6k, FD: $5.9k | at NOP

Unless you’re counting Joel Embiid, who is questionable to play and is still working under some restrictions, there are no true studs at the center position on this slate. But you really can’t go wrong with a $6k/$5.9k Rudy Gobert. He’s coming off arguably his best game of the season, dropping a 26-point, 13-rebound double-double and 50.75 DKFP against this same Pelicans team on Tuesday. That game did go to overtime, but Gobert still cleared value with ease in regulation. The ceiling games have been spread out quite a bit for him this season, but the matchup is the major draw here. The Pels have ranked 27th versus starting centers this season, allowing 1.35 FPPM to the position. If Gobert matches that number, it would be a significant step up from his rather ho-hum 0.95 FPPM. The Timberwolves are the only fully healthy team on this slate, so there isn’t any additional usage to divvy up from an injury absence. Regardless, 6x potential is a very attainable outcome for Gobert in this spot, especially if the Pelicans (+11.5 underdogs) force a competitive game script as they did a couple of days ago.

C Marvin Bagley III, WAS | DK: $5k, FD: $5.5k | vs. BOS

Both DraftKings and FanDuel gave Bagley a sizable salary bump as he’ll continue to operate as the starting center while Alex Sarr (thigh/out for a third straight game) is unable to play. But Bagley still profiles as a solid value at his elevated price points. He’s averaging 1.27 FPPM as a starter and has played just under 30 minutes/gm in his starts this season. The Wizards (+9.5) are still nearly double-digit underdogs at home, but they do have a better chance to keep this game fairly close with the Celtics playing without their top player, Jaylen Brown. Boston is allowing 35.5 FPPG to starting centers over their last 20 games, and, as long as he plays close to 30 minutes again, Bagley should be able to clear value with relative ease.

Other Centers to Consider

C Joel Embiid, PHI vs. GSW (Currently questionable)

C Derik Queen, NOP vs. MIN

C Nic Claxton, BKN vs. UTA

C Neemias Queta, BOS at WAS

C Tristan Vukcevic, WAS vs. BOS

C Day’Ron Sharpe, BKN vs. UTA

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we have rolled out Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks, UnderDog Fantasy, and other prop apps/sites!

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter/X or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!