Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler & Shannon

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

The week of the mid-sized slate continues with a seven-game Friday slate on tap. Vegas believes we’ll have mostly competitive games lined up tonight as six of the seven games possess a spread of six points or less. We’ll see how it shakes out but for now, let’s see what we can put together on the ole DFS front. Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

• Magic: P. Banchero - OUT, G. Harris - OUT

• 76ers: J. Embiid - OUT, A. Drummond - Questionable, A. Bona - OUT

• Lakers: A. Davis - Probable, L. James - Questionable, A. Reaves - OUT, J. Hayes - OUT, J. Hood-Schifino - OUT

• Hawks: T. Young - Probable

• Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable, K. Middleton - Probable (season debut), T. Prince - Questionable

• Celtics: K. Porzingis - OUT

• Pacers: A. Nembhard - Questionable, B. Sheppard - OUT, A. Nesmith - OUT

• Bulls: C. White - Questionable, L. Ball - Questionable, P. Williams - OUT, M. Buzelis - Questionable

• Kings: T. Lyles - OUT

• Spurs: V. Wembanyama - Doubtful, D. Vassell - OUT, T. Jones - OUT

• Timberwolves: R. Dillingham - OUT, J. Ingles - OUT

• Warriors: S. Curry - Questionable, D. Green - Questionable

• Jazz: J. Clarkson - OUT, K. Filipowski - OUT

• Trailblazers: R. Williams - OUT, D. Clingan - OUT, S. Henderson - Questionable

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Tyrese Haliburton, IND | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.5k | at CHI

On one hand, Hali has had some glaring shooting struggles on the road this season where his overall FG% has dipped to 35.1% and his 3P% goes down to 24.0% which has resulted in 13.7 PPG and 34.1 DKFP/gm -- compare that to his home averages of 48.1% FG%, 42.9% 3P%, 22.7 PPG, and 45.7 DKFP/gm. The good news is that his peripherals pretty much stay the same regardless of where he’s playing and he has also taken advantage of match-ups against bottom 10 teams in DEFRTG. In his last six games versus bottom 10 defensive teams, Haliburton has averaged 24.3 PPG, 8.3 APG, 4.0 RPG, and 49.6 DKFP/gm. He’ll be up against the Bulls today who are on the second leg of a B2B and check in at 26th in DEFRTG, 1st in pace, and 29th versus starting PGs L20Games. Both teams in this game are top eight in pace and bottom six in DEFRTG, so it is no surprise to see a colossal 248 over/under pinned here. If Haliburton shakes his road shooting woes, he should have another excellent all-around performance. If he doesn’t, however, well… it may be time to put him on the fade list until he’s back on his home court.

PG/SG Malik Monk, SAC | DK: $7k, FD: $7.3k | at SAS

We didn’t quite get the game we were hoping for out of Monk last night but, if you had him in your lineup(s), it isn’t as if his 33.75 DKFP/31.7 FDFP tanked you. After playing at least 35 minutes in the four previous games, Monk didn’t quite get the same amount of run last night, playing just 32 minutes. As mentioned in yesterday’s newsletter, in the four games prior to yesterday’s contest, Monk had been averaging a stout 1.33 FPPM and 47.5 DKFP/44.8 FDFP. One of those games came against this same Spurs team five days ago where Monk poured in a 19/7/6 line and netted 42.25 DKFP/40.40 FDFP across 37 minutes. Now that he’s expected to be a starter for the foreseeable future, Monk should play those mid-30s minutes more often than not and we have to love the match-up; on top of doing well as a starter against them a few days ago, the Spurs have ranked dead last versus starting SGs L10Games (via LineStar Team DEF tool). Monk has also shot a blistering 48.1% from three-point range in the six games since returning from an ankle injury. Monk’s hot hand from deep bodes well against the Spurs, who have allowed the second-highest percentage of opponent points to come from three-pointers (42.5%).

SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, ORL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.5k | at PHI

Perhaps other options open up later in the day but, at the moment, there isn’t much standout guard value to choose from on this slate. KCP is about as bland of a DFS play as there is but he has been a bit more involved lately and has popped for a couple of spike performances. Over his L5Games, KCP is averaging a respectable 0.85 FPPM while playing 31.2 Min/gm. His usage rate, which sits at 11.9% on the season, is also up a few percentage points to 14.5% L5Games, resulting in 15.0 PPG in that stretch. He’s also always a threat to rack up multiple steals/blocks and he just had five steals versus the 76ers two days ago. Again, it’s not an exciting play but, unless further guard value becomes apparent, I believe you could do much worse than Caldwell-Pope tonight. Philly also ranks 24th versus SG starters L10Games.

Other Guards to Consider

PG De’Aaron Fox, SAC at SAS

PG/SG Anthony Edwards, MIN at GSW

PG/SG Derrick White, BOS vs. MIL

PG Anfernee Simons, POR vs. UTA

PG Chris Paul, SAS vs. SAC

PG/SG Ayo Dosunmu, CHI vs. IND (Boost if C. White is out again)

PG De’Angelo Russell, LAL at ATL (DK Preferred)

PG/SG Brandin Podziemski, GSW vs. MIN (Preferred if S. Curry is out)

PG Jrue Holiday, BOS vs. MIL

SG Stephon Castle, SAS vs. SAC

SG/SF Bogdan Bogdanovic, ATL vs. LAL

SG/SF Dalton Knecht, LAL at ATL (Boost if LeBron is out)

SG/SF Nickeil Alexander-Walker, MIN at GSW

SG/SF Johnny Juzang, UTA at POR

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF Jalen Johnson, ATL | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.1k | vs. LAL

Johnson isn’t always going to return optimal value but, across his 22 games played this season, he has posted what I’d consider to be a true dud performance only once, and that was all the way back in the 3rd game of the season. He is just a consistent player who can contribute in all five categories and, over his L20Starts, he has put up 20.8 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 5.7 APG, and 2.4 STL+BLK/gm. I can’t imagine he’ll struggle in this match-up versus the stumbling Lakers who check in at 27th in DEFRTG and 26th versus starting PFs L20Games.

PF Jeremy Sochan, SAS | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.3k | vs. SAC

This is one of the more intriguing spots of the day. The Spurs threw us for a loop by starting Sochan at center yesterday in place of the injured Victor Wembanyama (who is doubtful to play tonight), instead of the presumed spot starter, Zach Collins. At 6’8”, Sochan is certainly undersized for an NBA center but he still ended the night with a 16-point, 14-rebound double-double while securing 39.5 DKFP/37.8 FDFP across 36 minutes. I would lean toward assuming that the Spurs will deploy him as the starting center again tonight but the hang-up is that he is just three days removed from returning from a thumb injury that held him out 13 games and, again, he just played 36 minutes last night. Fortunately, a thumb injury isn’t something that is going to hinder a player’s ability to maintain their conditioning while they’re sidelined, so perhaps the back-to-back factor won’t end up meaning much, if anything, tonight. Sochan has seen the largest usage boost on the team when both Wemby and Devin Vassell (injury management/out) have been off the floor this season so the shots should be there for him and his rebounding + block/steal upside only increases if he’s going to be filling in at center again.

PF/C Obi Toppin, IND | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.5k | at CHI

Toppin has now secured at least 28.25 DKFP/28.1 FDFP in three consecutive games and, as mentioned in the Haliburton spotlight, this is easily the juiciest match-up of the night for DFS purposes. Toppin is averaging a torrid 1.46 FPPM in this recent three-game stretch, which is a fairly unsustainable FPPM rate even for elite NBA players. So, I do wonder if the Toppin ‘trap game’ is going to hit soon. But, assuming he plays around 20 minutes tonight, I find it hard to believe he’ll manage to post a complete dud at these low-end salaries (especially at $3.6k on DK) in a game that should feature a ton of possessions, scoring, and rebound opportunities.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL at BOS (30th B-Day narrative?)

SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS vs. MIL (Deuce Tatum 7th B-Day narrative?)

SF/SG Jaylen Brown, BOS vs. MIL

SF/PF Paul George, PHI vs. ORL

SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, SAC at SAS

PF/C Julius Randle, MIN at GSW

SF/PF Lauri Markkanen, UTA at POR

PF Jerami Grant, POR vs. UTA

PF Jonathan Kuminga, GSW vs. MIN (Preferred if Draymond is out again + Kuminga starts)

SF/PF De’Andre Hunter, ATL vs. LAL

SF/PF Rui Hachimura, LAL at ATL (Preferred if LeBron is out)

SF/PF Keldon Johnson, SAS vs. SAC

SF Talen Horton-Tucker, CHI vs. IND

SF Zaccharie Risacher, ATL vs. LAL

PF Julian Phillips, CHI vs. IND (Only if starting again)

SF Max Christie, LAL at ATL

PF/C Isaac Jones, SAC at SAS

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Walker Kessler, UTA | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.9k | at POR

There are a lot of appealing center plays on this seven-game slate but we’ll drop to the mid-range with our first spotlight being placed on Walker Kessler. The range of outcomes for Kessler can be fairly wide but there is no doubt that he has plenty of GPP-winning upside. He’s one of the premier shot-blockers in the NBA and his 2.8 BLK/gm this season trails only the indomitable Victor Wembanyama (3.4 BLK/gm). Deandre Ayton’s recent return to action four games ago does shore up Portland’s paint and rim protection, but the Trailblazers still rank 25th versus starting centers L5Games with Ayton, of course, starting four of those games. Portland is also allowing the 3rd most opponent blocks per game and, while we can’t place too much weight on past season performances, the last time Kessler went up against the Trailblazers (12/14/23), he posted a double-double along with SEVEN blocks in just 26 minutes. And blocks aren’t the only thing Kessler brings to the table -- he has put up four consecutive double-doubles heading into tonight. This is also a game that pits two bad teams against each other and features a close 2.5-point spread, so it is unlikely that any of the starter’s minutes will be shortened due to a blowout. Unless he gets into early foul trouble, I believe this will be a big night for WK.

C Clint Capela, ATL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.4k | vs. LAL

FanDuel has Capela priced where he should be but I’ll continue to roll with him on DraftKings as they simply refuse to raise his DFS salary. While he isn’t likely to exceed 30 minutes on any given night, barring an injury to Onyeka Okongwu, Capela continues to put up fantasy points in a hurry with the court time he does get -- 1.23 FPPM L20Games, 1.34 FPPM L5Games. At $5,400 on DraftKings, we need 32.4 DKFP out of him for 6x value. Capela has exceeded in three of his last four games and six of his last nine. The Lakers have also been nothing special against opposing centers, ranking 23rd versus starting centers L20Games.

Other Centers to Consider

C Anthony Davis, LAL at ATL (Boost if LeBron is out)

C Domantas Sabonis, SAC at SAS

C Nikola Vucevic, CHI vs. IND

C Moritz Wagner, ORL at PHI

C Onyeka Okongwu, ATL vs. LAL

C Kevon Looney, GSW vs. MIN (Only if starting again)

C Jalen Smith, CHI vs. IND

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Malik Monk MORE than 32.0 Fantasy Score

Jayson Tatum MORE than 19.5 FG Attempted

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Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!