Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter/X & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

NBA DFS Today w/ Tyler Wiemann

No DFS video today!

🏀Tyler’s NBA prop bets can be found on the LineStar YouTube Shorts page!🏀

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

We’ve officially reached the final NBA slate before the All-Star Break, and it’s a modest three-gamer to close out the first half of the season. A lot of stars will be out tonight – and I don’t mean out there shining, I mean out there sitting on the sidelines wrapped in bubble wrap. Some absences are legitimate, but let’s be honest: plenty of these guys are getting an early jump on rest ahead of the break.

It’s frustrating, but it also creates opportunity. There’s still money to be made if we navigate it correctly, even if it means embracing some uncomfortable builds. Given how thin rotations are shaping up, don’t be surprised if the optimal lineup leaves a good chunk of salary on the table tonight. As we saw last night, things can get weird on these pre-ASB slates, but that’s often where the edge lives. Let’s see if we can close out the first half of the season on a profitable note. Best of luck!

Enjoy the All-Star Break and I’ll catch y’all next Thursday when the NBA returns!

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Today’s Key Injuries 🚑

^{Note: NBA injury reports can be fickle and often update throughout the day. Be sure to stay up-to-date on all injury news leading up to tip-off as the list below may be a bit outdated by the time you’re reading this.}

^{Additional Note: Players who have yet to play this season will be excluded from the injury report, unless they have either a probable, questionable, or doubtful injury designation, with some amount of chance to make their season debut. Injured players who have been out for an extended period of time and/or are not expected to play for a month-plus will also be excluded.}

• Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo – OUT, R. Rollins – Questionable, K. Kuzma – Questionable

• Thunder: S. Gilgeous-Alexander – OUT, Jal. Williams – OUT, I. Hartenstein – OUT, A. Mitchell – OUT

• Trailblazers: D. Avdija – Questionable, S. Sharpe – OUT, R. Williams – Questionable, K. Murray – OUT

• Jazz: L. Markkanen – OUT, K. George – OUT, J. Jackson Jr. – OUT (possibly out for season)

• Mavs: C. Flagg – OUT, N. Marshall – Probable, C. Martin – DOUBTFUL

• Lakers: L. Doncic – OUT, D. Ayton – OUT

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG/SG Kevin Porter Jr., MIL | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.1k | at OKC

KPJ has been on fire since returning from an oblique injury, averaging 21.8 PPG, 8.8 APG, 6.8 RPG, and 2.8 STL+BLK/gm over his last four starts, which equates to 1.41 FPPM and 48.7 DKFP/gm. Ryan Rollins (foot/questionable) sat out last night’s contest, which helped Porter post an 18/10/11 triple-double and 54.5 DKFP. He did log 39 minutes, so the back-to-back does introduce some mild workload concern. That said, if Rollins sits again, it would be difficult to overlook KPJ on a small slate that’s thin on true ceiling options. OKC is typically a difficult matchup, but with all their current injuries, the Thunder haven’t been the same defensive unit of late, ranking a meager 26th in DvP versus starting guards over their last 10 games. There’s also a sizable pricing discrepancy between sites – KPJ is clearly more attractive on DraftKings, but still very playable on FanDuel, especially if Rollins is ruled out again.

PG/SG Brandon Williams, DAL | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.4k | at LAL

Dallas will be thin again heading into Los Angeles, with Cooper Flagg already ruled out and additional frontcourt pieces banged up. That opens the door for Brandon Williams to step back into a meaningful role, even if he’ll likely still play off the bench. He logged just 18 minutes in the last game, but with Flagg out, it’s reasonable to expect his workload to climb back into the mid-20s. Williams has been productive whenever he’s been given runway, averaging a strong 1.18 FPPM over his last five games. On the season, he leads the Mavericks with a 28.2% USG% when both Flagg and Anthony Davis (traded) are off the floor. He doesn’t need to start to return value at these price points, and with his combination of usage, facilitation, and per-minute efficiency, Williams profiles as one of the better mid-range value guards on this short slate.

PG/SG Cam Thomas, MIL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.5k | at OKC

Thomas had a quiet debut with his new Bucks squad on Monday, scoring just four points on 1-of-5 shooting across 13 minutes. But he flipped the switch in a big way last night, pouring in 34 points and 42.5 DKFP in just 25 minutes off the bench while commanding a monstrous 48.0% USG%. Ryan Rollins’ absence certainly helped open the door for that type of workload, but, even if Rollins is active tonight, it wouldn’t be surprising if Milwaukee continues to give Thomas solid run off the bench as they evaluate their newest addition heading into the break. It’s unrealistic to expect another 30+ point outing or near-10x DFS performance, especially if Rollins returns, but Thomas doesn’t need anything close to that to be useful at these mid-$4k price points. If he lands back in the low-to-mid-20s in minutes and stays aggressive as a scorer, he offers a volatile but very real path to paying off salary with a hot shooting night.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Isaiah Collier, UTA vs. POR

PG/SG Austin Reaves, LAL vs. DAL

PG Jrue Holiday, POR at UTA (Boost if Avdija is out)

SG/SF Cason Wallace, OKC vs. MIL

SG Max Christie, DAL at LAL

SG Isaiah Joe, OKC vs. MIL

PG/SG Vince Williams Jr., UTA vs. POR

PG/SG Jared McCain, OKC vs. MIL

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF LeBron James, LAL | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.2k | vs. DAL

With Luka sidelined and Austin Reaves not yet back to playing full minutes (and likely still playing off the bench), LeBron is again set to carry a heavy offensive load. With Luka off the floor this season, LeBron’s role expands significantly, jumping to a 32.7% USG%, a massive 43.4% Assist%, and 1.42 FPPM – all significant increases from his on-court rates alongside Luka (26.8% USG%, 27.0% Assist%, 1.15 FPPM). That uptick has shown up in the box score, as LeBron has posted double-digit assists in three straight games while clearing 46 DKFP in two of his last three. He sat Tuesday but should be fresh heading into the final game before the break. Dallas has also struggled defensively against the position, ranking 28th in DvP versus starting power forwards over their last 10 games.

SF/PF Aaron Wiggins, OKC | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.6k | vs. MIL

With Jalen Williams officially ruled out, as well as SGA, Hartenstein, and Ajay Mitchell, Aaron Wiggins should step into a more secure role and increased workload for OKC. He’s been consistently productive even without an elevated workload, reaching at least 22 DKFP in nine of his last 11 games, with a 44.5 DKFP ceiling outing mixed in during that stretch. Wiggins has averaged 30.9 DKFP/gm and right around 1.00 FPPM over his last five games as a starter, and if his minutes push into the low-30s with OKC thin on bodies, he’s well-positioned to return value at these mid-$5k salaries. He contributes across multiple categories rather than relying solely on scoring, which helps stabilize his floor while still leaving room for upside against Milwaukee.

PF/C Jaylin Williams, OKC | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. MIL

Sticking with OKC, with Isaiah Hartenstein ruled out, Jaylin Williams should slide into another spot start, either at center or power forward – positions he’s eligible for on both DK and FD. That alone puts him firmly on the value radar out of the $4k range. Williams has been somewhat volatile when starting, but the upside is undeniable. He’s coming off an 11-point, six-rebound, five-assist effort in 28 minutes off the bench against Phoenix (34.5 DKFP), and just last week he flashed a true ceiling game in the starting lineup with a 24/12/4 line and 51.5 DKFP against San Antonio. If his minutes land in the mid-to-upper 20s again tonight, Williams has a clear path to paying off salary, with tournament-winning upside if things break right.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF Deni Avdija, POR at UTA (Currently questionable)

PF/C Kyle Filipowski, UTA vs. POR (Boost if starting)

SF/PF Jerami Grant, POR at UTA (Preferred if Avdija is out)

SF/SG Naji Marshall, DAL at LAL

SF/SG Ace Bailey, UTA vs. POR

SF/SG Marcus Smart, LAL vs. DAL

PF/C Kenrich Williams, OKC vs. MIL

SF/SG Cody Williams, UTA vs. POR

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Donovan Clingan, POR | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.3k | at UTA

This is a rough slate for centers, which makes Donovan Clingan stand out as the most secure option with the clearest path to both floor and ceiling. Portland has leaned on him heavily over the last few weeks, and he’s delivered elite per-minute production, averaging a stellar 1.39 FPPM over his last five games. The matchup sets up well against a Jazz team that has struggled defensively and continues to juggle awkward rotations up front. Clingan’s last outing was relatively quiet by recent standards (8 points, 9 rebounds, 27.2 DKFP against Minnesota), but that came after a stretch of five straight games with at least 34 DKFP, including 44.2 DKFP against Phoenix and a massive 55.75 DKFP performance versus Memphis. Deni Avdija’s (injury management/questionable) potential absence would only help stabilize Clingan’s role and boost both his floor and ceiling. On a slate where dependable center production is hard to find, Clingan profiles as the clear pay-up option at the position.

C Marvin Bagley III, DAL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.7k | at LAL

Bagley has made an immediate impact since landing in Dallas and continues to stand out as one of the better salary-saving center options on this slate. He’s logged 24 minutes in each of his two games with the Mavs, flashing a wide range of outcomes but also showing just how productive he can be in a limited role. In his first outing, Bagley exploded for 16 points, 12 rebounds, four blocks, and 46 DKFP, and while his follow-up performance was more modest (21.5 DKFP), the underlying role remained intact. The key here is efficiency. Bagley has averaged an excellent 1.35 FPPM over his last five games off the bench, proving he doesn’t need a starting spot or heavy minutes to rack up fantasy production. With Daniel Gafford’s workload still being monitored, Bagley should see another mid-20s minute role tonight. At sub-$5k salaries, that kind of per-minute profile gives him a strong floor with real ceiling potential if the defensive stats or rebounding spike again.

Other Centers to Consider

C Jusuf Nurkic, UTA vs. POR

C/PF Jericho Sims, MIL at OKC (Boost if starting again)

C Jaxson Hayes, LAL vs. DAL

C/PF Ousmane Dieng, MIL at OKC (Preferred if Kuzma is out)

C Oscar Tshiebwe, UTA vs. POR (Utah weird rotation dart throw)

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we have rolled out Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks, UnderDog Fantasy, and other prop apps/sites!

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter/X or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!