Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter/X & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

NBA DFS Today w/ Tyler Wiemann

No DFS vid today!

🏀Tyler’s NBA (and other sports) prop bets can be found on the LineStar YouTube Shorts page!🏀

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

After a run of large slates to close out last week, we’re back to a compact three-game slate on this Monday evening. A fourth game (NOP at CHA) was originally scheduled for this evening as well, but was moved to an earlier tip due to inclement weather in the Charlotte area. Even with just three games on the board, the player pool remains workable, and the matchups should be competitive, with all three spreads sitting at 6.5 points or fewer. Let’s dive in. Best of luck!

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Today’s Key Injuries 🚑

^{Note: NBA injury reports can be fickle and often update throughout the day. Be sure to stay up-to-date on all injury news leading up to tip-off as the list below may be a bit outdated by the time you’re reading this.}

^{Additional Note: Players who have yet to play this season will be excluded from the injury report, unless they have either a probable, questionable, or doubtful injury designation, with some amount of chance to make their season debut. Injured players who have been out for an extended period of time and/or are not expected to play for a month-plus will also be excluded.}

• Rockets: K. Durant – OUT

• Pacers: None

• Timberwolves: A. Edwards – Questionable, J. Randle – Questionable

• Grizzlies: J. Morant – OUT, J. Jackson Jr. – Probable, Z. Edey – OUT, S. Aldama – OUT, J. Konchar – OUT

• 76ers: J. Embiid – Probable, P. George – OUT

• Clippers: J. Harden – OUT, D. Jones Jr. – OUT

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Amen Thompson, HOU | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.8k | at IND

With Kevin Durant ruled out, Amen Thompson once again finds himself in a spot where his minutes and overall role feel extremely secure. While his on/off splits don’t show a dramatic per-minute spike with Durant off the floor, Thompson’s value is driven far more by workload than usage. In competitive games, he’s routinely pushing or exceeding 40 minutes, and that kind of court time is hard to ignore for a player who fills the stat sheet as well as he does. The recent production has been rock-solid. Thompson has eclipsed 42 DKFP in six of his last eight games and continues to contribute across all five major categories, giving him a stable floor even when the scoring isn’t the focal point. He nearly logged a triple-double in his last outing with 21 points, nine assists, and eight rebounds, which is a pretty clean snapshot of his fantasy profile. There are no issues with the matchup, as the Pacers have ranked 26th in DvP versus starting PGs across their last 20 games, and they’ve allowed 1.18 FPPM to the position in that span. Thompson profiles as one of the safer ways to spend in the low-to-mid $8k range, with both minutes security, matchup, and all-around upside firmly working in his favor.

PG/SG Reed Sheppard, HOU | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.2k | at IND

Staying in the Rockets backcourt, Reed Sheppard stands out as one of the better value options on this short slate. With Kevin Durant sidelined, Sheppard’s role and efficiency both get a noticeable lift – his usage jumps by five percentage points to 24.7% and his production climbs from 0.88 to 1.07 FPPM in those on/off splits with KD. Sheppard is currently projected for around 26–27 minutes, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him push into the 30-minute range and close the game with most of the other starters in the fourth quarter if things stay tight. The matchup also cooperates, as Indiana has ranked dead last in DvP versus bench point guards over their last 20 games.

PG/SG Ty Jerome, MEM | DK: $4.0k, FD: $4.4k | vs. MIN

Jerome checks just about every box you want when it comes to salary relief. With Ja Morant still sidelined, he’s in line to start again and should see a similar role to what we saw Saturday. In his season debut, Jerome wasted no time making an impact, pouring in 20 points with six assists in just 20 minutes, good for a scorching 1.61 FPPM and 32.2 DKFP. That per-minute efficiency isn’t a fluke either. Jerome has consistently been a strong fantasy producer when given opportunity, and posted a 1.15 FPPM mark with the Cavs last season. Even if his workload only lands in the 20–24 minute range again, that’s more than enough runway at these price points. He’ll be extremely popular, but on a slate this small, Jerome profiles as one of the toughest value plays to fade.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI at LAC

SG Anthony Edwards, MIN at MEM (Currently questionable – Boost if Randle sits)

SG Tari Eason, HOU at IND

PG Donte DiVincenzo, MIN at MEM (Boost if Edwards and/or Randle sit)

SG Cedric Coward, MEM vs. MIN

SG/SF Josh Okogie, HOU at IND

PG/SG Bones Hyland, MIN at MEM (Only if Edwards is out)

PG/SG Jared McCain, PHI at LAC

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Alperen Sengun, HOU | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.7k | at IND

On a three-game slate, Sengun stands out as the clear centerpiece and one of the strongest building blocks available. With Kevin Durant sidelined, the Rockets’ offense is expected to funnel heavily through Sengun, and the on/off numbers support that expectation. Whenever KD has been on the sidelines, Sengun leads the team with a 28.9% usage rate, a 25.0% assist rate, and produces an excellent 1.25 FPPM. The matchup only amplifies the appeal. Indiana has struggled badly in the frontcourt, ranking 27th in rebounding percentage and 28th in points allowed in the paint, while also allowing the ninth-most FPPG to starting centers over their last 20 games. That combination sets Sengun up for a ceiling-friendly environment where a big points-and-rebounds double-double is very much in play. He’ll be popular, but Sengun is simply one of the safest and most effective ways to spend up today.

PF/C Naz Reid, MIN | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.7k | at MEM

Naz Reid continues to be one of the more reliable mid-range options on the board, thanks to a strong per-minute profile and a role that can expand quickly with the right injury news. Even in his usual bench role, Reid has been rock-solid, averaging 1.24 FPPM over his last 20 games while consistently contributing across points, rebounds, assists, and defensive stats. We also just saw the upside against this same Grizzlies team, as Reid filled the box score with a 20/9/5 line and three steals (47.25 DKFP) in their most recent meeting on Saturday. If Anthony Edwards (back/questionable) is ruled out, Reid stands to benefit from a noticeable bump in usage. If Julius Randle (thumb/questionable) is sidelined, Reid is more likely to see an uptick in minutes and overall role. Either scenario boosts his already solid projection, and if both were to miss, Reid would be positioned for a fully featured role on both ends of the floor.

PF/C John Collins, LAC | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.9k | vs. PHI

Value is relatively thin at forward on this small slate, but John Collins stands out as a viable mid-tier option that won’t break the bank. His first season with the Clippers got off to a slow start, but his recent play has him trending in the right direction, with at least 30.75 DKFP in three of his last four games. Collins is also set up for a meaningful role boost with James Harden (personal/out) set to miss his second straight game. In those on/off splits with Harden, Collins’ usage rate jumps from 17.1% to 22.5%, while his per-minute production improves from 0.84 to 0.92 FPPM. The matchup isn’t prohibitive either, as Philadelphia has allowed the 4th-most FPPG to starting power forwards over their last 20 games.

Other Forwards to Consider

SF Kawhi Leonard, LAC vs. PHI

PF Julius Randle, MIN at MEM (Currently questionable – Boost if Edwards is out)

PF Jabari Smith Jr., HOU at IND

SF Jaden McDaniels, MIN at MEM (Boost if Edwards and/or Randle are out)

SF/PF Kelly Oubre Jr., PHI at LAC

SF/PF Jarace Walker, IND vs. HOU

SF/OF Gregory “GG” Jackson, MEM vs. MIN

PF/C Jay Huff, IND vs. HOU

PF Vince Williams Jr., MEM vs. MIN

SF Jaylen Wells, MEM vs. MIN

SF Kobe Sanders, LAC vs. PHI

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.3k | at LAC

Joel Embiid checks in as the top raw-ceiling play on this three-game slate, and his recent form fully supports that designation. Over his last five games, Embiid has looked like peak MVP-level Embiid again, averaging 61.8 DKFP/gm with a 38.0% USG% while producing an elite 1.66 FPPM. He’s coming off a monster 40-point, 11-rebound performance that also included four assists, two blocks, and a steal, and his role remains firmly cemented with Paul George serving his 25-game suspension. The matchup against the Clippers isn’t ideal on paper, as they’ve been fairly stingy in the paint, but given his current level of play, he’s approaching “matchup proof” status. Philadelphia has no reason to ease off the gas here, and Embiid should once again be allowed to dominate the usage.

C Clint Capela, HOU | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.1k | at IND

Center value is thin on this small slate, but Capela is squarely on the radar as a salary-saving option. He draws the same favorable matchup as Sengun against a Pacers frontcourt that has struggled in the paint and on the glass. While the minutes are likely capped, Capela has been extremely productive when he’s been on the floor, averaging an outstanding 1.37 FPPM over his last five games. If he can push closer to the 18-minute range, like we saw a couple of games ago, that per-minute production gives him a strong chance to return value at these low-end price tags. He’s best suited for tournaments given the volatility, but the matchup-driven upside is hard to ignore.

Other Centers to Consider

C Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM vs. MIN

C Ivica Zubac, LAC vs. PHI

C Rudy Gobert, MIN at MEM

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we have rolled out Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks, UnderDog Fantasy, and other prop apps/sites!

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter/X or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!