Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter/X & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

NBA DFS Today w/ Tyler Wiemann

🏀Tyler’s NBA prop bets can be found on the LineStar YouTube Shorts page!🏀

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Day two back from the All-Star Break brings us another intriguing seven-game main slate. There are a couple of potential blowouts on the board – OKC (-18.5) vs. BKN and MIN (-14.5) vs. DAL – but outside of those spots, we’re mostly looking at (what should be) competitive games, with the remaining five matchups all carrying spreads under six points.

The injury report is noticeably heavier today than it was yesterday, and a few teams – most notably the Grizzlies and Pacers – are set to roll out some pretty thin rotations. That should open the door to plenty of value and make roster construction flexible. There’s a lot to sort through, so let’s dive in and see where the edges pop up. Best of luck!

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Today’s Key Injuries 🚑

^{Note: NBA injury reports can be fickle and often update throughout the day. Be sure to stay up-to-date on all injury news leading up to tip-off as the list below may be a bit outdated by the time you’re reading this.}

^{Additional Note: Players who have yet to play this season will be excluded from the injury report, unless they have either a probable, questionable, or doubtful injury designation, with some amount of chance to make their season debut. Injured players who have been out for an extended period of time and/or are not expected to play for a month-plus will also be excluded.}

• Pacers: P. Siakam – OUT, A. Nembhard – DOUBTFUL, I. Zubac – OUT, A. Nesmith – OUT, K. Jones – Questionable, TJ McConnell – Questionable

• Wizards: T. Young – OUT, A. Sarr – OUT, K. George – OUT

• Cavs: E. Mobley – OUT, N. Tomlin – Probable

• Hornets: C. White – OUT, M. Bridges – OUT, M. Diabate – OUT, G. Williams – OUT

• Jazz: L. Markkanen – Questionable, K. George – OUT, J. Nurkic – OUT, O. Tshiebwe – Questionable

• Grizzlies: J. Morant – OUT, Z. Edey – OUT, S. Aldama – OUT, T. Jerome – OUT, C. Coward – OUT, S. Pippen Jr. – OUT, W. Clayton Jr. – DOUBTFUL, K. Caldwell-Pope – OUT

• Heat: None

• Hawks: J. Kuminga – OUT

• Mavs: C. Flagg – OUT, M. Christie – DOUBTFUL, D. Gafford – Questionable, C. Martin – Questionable

• Timberwolves: None

• Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo – OUT, M. Turner – OUT

• Pelicans: T. Murphy III – OUT, Y. Missi – OUT, M. Peavy – OUT

• Nets: M. Porter Jr. – Questionable, N. Claxton – OUT, Z. Williams – OUT

• Thunder: S. Gilgeous-Alexander – OUT, Jal. Williams – OUT, A. Mitchell – OUT

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

SG Anthony Edwards, MIN | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10k | vs. DAL

Dallas will be without runaway ROTY candidate Cooper Flagg (foot/out) tonight, which has pushed this spread wider and does introduce some blowout risk. Still, with so much value available across the slate, we need to spend up somewhere, and Anthony Edwards makes as much sense as any top-end option. He enters tonight with at least 52.5 DKFP in four of his last six games and continues to carry one of the highest raw ceilings on the board.

The Timberwolves are playing their first game in nine days and are fully healthy, so there aren’t any injury-driven usage boosts to factor in. That said, Edwards is going to get his shots regardless, and he’s averaged roughly 16% more FPPG when well-rested. He also draws an excellent individual matchup against a Mavericks defense that has allowed the most FPPG to starting shooting guards over their last 20 games, making him a strong spend-up despite the blowout concerns.

PG/SG Jeremiah Fears, NOP | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.5k | vs. MIL

Fears went into the All-Star break riding back-to-back strong performances, posting 37.0 DKFP against the Kings and 43.0 DKFP versus the Heat. With Trey Murphy III (shoulder/out) sidelined tonight, Fears is projected to slide back into the starting lineup after making his last 10 appearances off the bench.

With Murphy and Jose Alvarado (traded) off the floor this season, Fears has averaged a respectable 0.94 FPPM while carrying a 26.1% USG% – that usage rate trails only Zion Williamson on the team. Fears is currently projected for 31.0 minutes, which would represent a meaningful jump from his 25.6 min/gm average on the season. The matchup also lines up well, as Milwaukee ranks 28th in DvP versus starting guards over their last 20 games and has allowed 1.12 FPPM to the guard positions during that stretch.

PG Javon Small, MEM | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. UTA

As noted in the intro, the Grizzlies are operating with a razor-thin rotation and could have just eight or nine available bodies tonight. The backcourt is especially depleted, with Ja Morant, Ty Jerome, Cedric Coward, Scotty Pippen Jr., and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope all ruled out, while Walter Clayton Jr. is doubtful.

Even if he doesn’t draw the start, Small should be a strong bet for mid-20s minutes and has produced a solid 1.04 FPPM over his last five games. That stretch includes a 22/6/4 performance and 38.5 DKFP against Portland on February 7th, when he logged a season-high 28 minutes. There’s real upside here, and not many ways this play fails if the minutes hold, which, by all indications, they should. The matchup only strengthens the case, as Utah ranks dead last in DEFRTG, third in pace, and dead last in DvP versus bench guards this season.

Other Guards to Consider

PG James Harden, CLE at CHA

PG Isaiah Collier, UTA at MEM

PG/SG Kevin Porter Jr., MIL at NOP (DK Preferred)

SG Kon Knueppel, CHA vs. CLE

PG/SG CJ McCollum, ATL vs. MIA

SG/SF Brice Sensabaugh, UTA at MEM (Preferred if starting – Boost if Markkanen is out)

PG/SG Cam Spencer, MEM vs. UTA

PG/SG Brandon Williams, DAL at MIN

SG Isaiah Joe, OKC vs. BKN

PG TJ McConnell, IND at WAS (Currently questionable)

PG Sharife Cooper, WAS vs. IND

SG/SF Ben Sheppard, IND at WAS

PG/SG Jared McCain, OKC vs. BKN

PG/SG Ethan Thompson, IND at WAS

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF Jalen Johnson, ATL | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.3k | vs. MIA

To the same point made in the Ant write-up, with so much value available on this slate, it’s difficult not to keep Jalen Johnson on the radar as a premier forward spend-up. He’s scored at least 59.2 DKFP in six straight games and leads all players on the slate with a 1.68 FPPM average over his last five starts. This matchup also sets up beautifully, owning a slate-high 243.5 over/under and a narrow spread (ATL +3.5).

Johnson continues to stuff the stat sheet across all five categories and already proved his ceiling in this matchup earlier this month, when he posted a 29/11/11 triple-double against Miami. The only real concern is situational: Atlanta is on the second leg of a back-to-back after Johnson logged 38 minutes last night, while the Heat come in rested after nine days off. That opens the door for some letdown risk, especially with Johnson likely to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate. Even so, he’s an uncomfortable fade given the role, form, and game environment.

PF/C Kyle Filipowski, UTA | DK: $6.9k, FD: $6.9k | at MEM

No matter how the organization tries to spin it, the Jazz aren’t beating the tanking allegations anytime soon. Their erratic handling of key players has made them difficult to trust for much of the season. That said, with Jusuf Nurkic, Keyonte George, and Jaren Jackson Jr. (out for season) all sidelined tonight, Filipowski needs to stay firmly in the conversation – especially if Lauri Markkanen (“illness”/questionable) also sits.

Filipowski is expected to draw a start and, while his track record in that role has been volatile, his recent production has been encouraging. Over his last five games as a starter, he’s put up 1.39 FPPM (third-best mark on the slate) while averaging a double-double (14.6 PPG, 13.2 RPG), strong defensive stats (2.8 STL+BLK/gm), and 42.2 DKFP/gm. This depleted Grizzlies lineup should be vulnerable in the paint, and Filipowski already delivered one of his best performances of the season against Memphis back in December, going for 25/13/4 and 53.25 DKFP. At $6,900 on both sites, the 40+ FP upside he brings is difficult to ignore.

PF/C Olivier-Maxence Prosper, MEM | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4k | vs. UTA

We’ll flip back to Memphis for another value option, this time spotlighting Olivier-Maxence Prosper. Despite the Grizzlies operating with a thin rotation, OMP is still expected to come off the bench, but that’s not a major concern at these price points. He projects for a healthy 28.0 minutes and has averaged a rock-solid 1.01 FPPM over his last five games in a reserve role.

The third-year pro out of Marquette has seen limited opportunity for much of his career, averaging just 10.9 minutes/gm across 121 appearances, but he’s quietly producing his best offensive season to date. He’s been especially effective from beyond the arc, knocking down 41.8% of his three-point attempts, and he’s only a couple of games removed from a 25-point eruption where he drained seven of eight threes. As noted in the Javon Small writeup, there are zero matchup concerns here – to reiterate, Utah ranks dead last in DEFRTG, third in pace, and dead last in DvP versus bench forwards. Prosper profiles as a strong salary-saver with a surprisingly real ceiling if the shot heats up.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF Julius Randle, MIN vs. DAL

SF Brandon Miller, CHA vs. CLE

PF Zion Williamson, NOP vs. MIL

SF/PF Saddiq Bey, NOP vs. MIL

SF/PF Jarace Walker, IND at WAS

SF/SG Naji Marshall, DAL at MIN

SF Jaden McDaniels, MIN vs. DAL

PF/C Naz Reid, MIN vs. DAL

SF/PF Gregory “GG” Jackson, MEM vs. UTA

SF Jaylen Wells, MEM vs. UTA

PF/C Micah Potter, IND at WAS

SF Kobe Brown, IND at WAS

PF Taylor Hendricks, MEM vs. UTA

SF Jahmai Mashack, MEM vs. UTA

SF/SG Taelon Peter, IND at WAS

PF Tidjane Salaun, CHA vs. CLE (Boost if starting)

SF/SG Bryce McGowens, NOP vs. MIL

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Jarrett Allen, CLE | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.4k | at CHA

Allen has been excellent of late and, across his six games in the month of February, he’s averaging an elite 1.61 FPPM and 46.1 DKFP/gm while posting 22.8 PPG and 11.7 RPG. That sample does include an extreme outlier performance against Portland on February 1st, where Allen erupted for a massive 40-point, 17-rebound double-double and 82.2 DKFP, but the broader trend still holds – his play has clearly elevated in recent weeks. Aside from last night’s contest, all those strong performances came with Evan Mobley sidelined by a calf injury. Mobley returned last night but will sit on the second leg of the back-to-back, which again puts Allen in a favorable spot. The on/off splits are stark: with Mobley on the floor, Allen averages just 0.82 FPPM with a modest 14.0% USG%, but with Mobley off, those numbers jump to 1.29 FPPM and a 23.9% USG%. Center is also thin at the top today, making Allen a very sensible target in the $7k range on both sites. Charlotte has been stingy versus starting centers, allowing the fewest FPPG to the position over their last 20 games, but the “Mobley-off” splits are tough to overlook when it comes to Allen, so he stays on the radar.

C Anthony Gill, WAS | DK: $4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. IND

While I’d love to go back to the well with Tristan Vukcevic (DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.4k), the way his minutes were handled last night gives me serious pause. I’ll try not to speak on it too much, but Vukcevic was cruising early, posting 12 points, five rebounds, two assists, five steals, and a block for 34.2 DKFP in just 17 minutes, only to be stapled to the bench for the final 18 minutes of the game, despite a competitive, winning script. Much like what we’ve seen from Utah and a couple of other teams, it strongly signals more blatant tanking behavior from Washington.

With Alex Sarr still out for another week or two, there are clearly center minutes available, and Anthony Gill ended up soaking up most of them last night. Gill logged 31 minutes off the bench and turned that opportunity into a solid 13/8/3 line and 29.5 DKFP against this same Pacers team. We can’t assume the exact same rotation plays out on the second leg of the back-to-back between these two teams, but Gill has now played at least 28 minutes in three of his last four games. If you’re hunting for a cheap center and are willing to lean into the Wizards’ tanking tendencies, Gill is a viable contrarian value option tonight.

Other Centers to Consider

C Bam Adebayo, MIA at ATL

C Isaiah Hartenstein, OKC vs. BKN

C Day’Ron Sharpe, BKN at OKC

C Derik Queen, NOP vs. MIL

C/PF Jay Huff, IND at WAS

C Tristan Vukcevic, WAS vs. IND

C Jericho Sims, MIL at NOP

C Kyle Anderson, MEM vs. UTA

C PJ Hall, CHA vs. CLE

C Kevon Looney, NOP vs. MIL

C Lawson Lovering, MEM vs. UTA

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we have rolled out Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks, UnderDog Fantasy, and other prop apps/sites!

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter/X or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!