Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter/X & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

NBA DFS Today w/ Tyler Wiemann

🏀Tyler’s NBA prop bets can be found on the LineStar YouTube Shorts page!🏀

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Wednesday brings us a modest five-game main slate, with the added benefit of a later start time, as the first tip doesn’t come until 7:30 ET. The matchups may not jump off the page, but the slate still looks decent, especially with an injury report that’s active enough to open up clear value but not hectic enough to cause too many headaches. With a bit of extra time to get organized, this one sets up fairly clean. Let’s jump into it. Best of luck!

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Today’s Key Injuries 🚑

^{Note: NBA injury reports can be fickle and often update throughout the day. Be sure to stay up-to-date on all injury news leading up to tip-off as the list below may be a bit outdated by the time you’re reading this.}

^{Additional Note: Players who have yet to play this season will be excluded from the injury report, unless they have either a probable, questionable, or doubtful injury designation, with some amount of chance to make their season debut. Injured players who have been out for an extended period of time and/or are not expected to play for a month-plus will also be excluded.}

• Spurs: None

• Raptors: S. Barnes – Questionable

• Thunder: S. Gilgeous-Alexander – OUT, C. Holmgren – DOUBTFUL, Jal. Williams – OUT, I. Hartenstein – OUT, A. Mitchell – OUT, A. Caruso – DOUBTFUL

• Pistons: I. Stewart – OUT

• Warriors: S. Curry – OUT, D. Melton – OUT, K. Porzingis – OUT, D. Green – Questionable

• Grizzlies: J. Morant – OUT, Z. Edey – OUT, S. Aldama – OUT, C. Coward – OUT, K. Anderson – Questionable

• Kings: D. Cardwell – OUT, D. Carter – Questionable

• Rockets: A. Thompson – OUT, J. Tate – OUT

• Cavs: D. Mitchell – OUT, J. Harden – Questionable, E. Mobley – OUT

• Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo – OUT

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Cade Cunningham, DET | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.4k | vs. OKC

Once again, we’ve got a slate that’s fairly limited on productive high-end options, which puts Cunningham firmly in play up top even if the matchup isn’t ideal. He’s been in excellent form of late, averaging 27.4 PPG, 10.4 APG, 7.8 RPG, and 3.4 STL+BLK/gm over his last five, translating to an elite 1.78 FPPM and 60.8 DKFP/gm. Outside of Victor Wembanyama, no other player on this slate is coming close to matching that level of recent upside.

As alluded to, the matchup is the primary concern. The Pistons have moved to 10.5-point favorites with OKC missing much of its starting lineup – SGA, Jalen Williams, and Isaiah Hartenstein are all out, while Chet Holmgren is listed as doubtful. Even while shorthanded, the Thunder have continued to defend well (5th in DEFRTG L10Games) and don’t play at a particularly fast pace. That said, Cunningham has held his own against strong defensive teams recently, and if OKC can keep this game competitive, expectations should remain high for the Pistons’ star point guard.

PG/SG Reed Sheppard, HOU | DK: $5k, FD: $5.7k | vs. SAC

Amen Thompson (quadriceps/out) will be missing just his second game of the season tonight, which puts Sheppard firmly on the value radar. He’s likely to move into the starting lineup and should see a noticeable boost to his overall role. With Thompson on the floor this season, Sheppard has posted a 20.2% USG%, 12.5% Assist%, and 0.86 FPPM, but those numbers jump to 23.2% USG%, 23.8% Assist%, and 1.05 FPPM when Thompson is off the floor. Sheppard has also averaged 1.13 FPPM over his last five games as a starter.

While the production hasn’t always been consistent in these opportunities, we’ve seen the ceiling he brings, most notably in a start against the Warriors on Nov. 26th, when he erupted for a 31/9/5 line and 56.75 DKFP in 37 minutes. The individual matchup is favorable, with the Kings ranking 29th in overall DEFRTG and 29th in DvP versus starting point guards, allowing 1.24 FPPM to the position. The only real concern is blowout risk, with Houston checking in as slate-heavy 13.5-point favorites.

PG Dennis Schroder, CLE | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.3k | at MIL

Initially in the intro, I mentioned how the injury report wasn’t overly hectic, but as is often the case in the NBA, late news has shifted the slate. Cleveland added multiple key names to their injury report this afternoon, with Donovan Mitchell (groin) and Evan Mobley (injury maintenance) ruled out, while James Harden (thumb) is listed as questionable. Shortly after Harden received that designation, Shams Charania reported that the injury is a fractured thumb on his right shooting hand and that Harden will undergo further evaluation and treatment.

With that context, it’s difficult to envision Harden playing tonight, which opens the door for Dennis Schroder to step into the starting point guard role. He’s been productive off the bench since arriving in Cleveland, though the minutes have been capped in that role. As a starter, however, Schroder is a known quantity and has averaged a respectable 1.01 FPPM on the season. If Harden were to unexpectedly suit up, Schroder’s appeal would take a hit, but for now, it’s reasonable to operate under the assumption that Cleveland will be without both of its primary guards this evening.

Other Guards to Consider

PG/SG Kevin Porter Jr., MIL vs. CLE

SG Stephon Castle, SAS at TOR

PG/SG Brandin Podziemski, GSW at MEM

SG/SF Cason Wallace, OKC at DET

PG Ty Jerome, MEM vs. GSW

SG Isaiah Joe, OKC at DET

SG/SF Sam Merrill, CLE at MIL

SG Duncan Robinson, DET vs. OKC

SG/SF Gary Payton II, GSW at MEM

SG/SF Keon Ellis, CLE at MIL

PG JD Davidson, HOU vs. SAC

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF Kevin Durant, HOU | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.1k | vs. SAC

Spending up at forward doesn’t carry a ton of appeal on this slate, but if that’s the direction you’re looking to go, Durant stands out as a viable high-end option. He’s another Rockets player positioned for a boost with Amen Thompson ruled out, and the on/off splits are notable. In over 400 minutes with Thompson off the floor this season, Durant’s usage rate has jumped to 33.0%, a sizable increase from his 27.3% mark on the year.

Since the All-Star Break, Durant has already flashed upside with 59.5 DKFP against Charlotte and 47.8 DKFP versus Utah. The matchup also checks out, as Sacramento has slipped to 29th in DEFRTG, and while they’ve been relatively solid against small forwards, they haven’t faced many players of Durant’s caliber at the position. As long as this game stays competitive, KD sets up well. The main concern is game flow, with Houston on the front end of a back-to-back, which could lead to reduced fourth-quarter minutes if the Rockets pull away.

PF Gui Santos, GSW | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.6k | at MEM

Santos shapes up as one of the cleaner mid-range options on the slate after flashing both consistency and upside over the past couple of weeks while Golden State has operated shorthanded. Over his last seven games (all starts), he’s averaged 15.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG, and 4.4 APG across 31.6 minutes per game, translating to a rock-solid 1.11 FPPM and 34.9 DKFP/gm. He put together arguably his best all-around performance of the season last night against New Orleans, posting a 15/12/4 double-double with three blocks and two steals for 45.0 DKFP.

That outing did come with a 39-minute workload, but assuming the back-to-back doesn’t materially cap his run, Santos lands in another strong spot tonight. Memphis ranks dead last in DvP versus starting power forwards this season and has also allowed the most FPPG to the position over its last 20 games. With the Warriors down several key contributors while pushing for playoff positioning, Santos should continue to see reliable minutes and remain in a position to sustain his recent production.

PF/C Kenrich Williams, OKC | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.8k | at DET

There should be value to mine on this OKC roster, particularly in the frontcourt, with Jalen Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein ruled out and Chet Holmgren listed as doubtful. That combination sets Williams up for another spot start and an expanded role. With the current Thunder injuries accounted for, Williams has averaged a team-leading 1.17 FPPM this season and he is projected for around 28.0 minutes tonight.

We’ve already seen what this looks like when Oklahoma City is similarly thin, as Williams stepped into the starting lineup against San Antonio on February 4th (Holmgren, Hartenstein, and Jal. Williams were all out, along with SGA, Ajay Mitchell, and Alex Caruso) and produced a 25/9/2 line with 41.75 DKFP in 35 minutes. A repeat of that outing isn’t something to bank on, but it does highlight the type of upside he brings at these low-end price points when the opportunity is there.

Other Forwards to Consider

SF RJ Barrett, TOR vs. SAS (Boost if Barnes is out)

PF Jabari Smith Jr., HOU vs. SAC

SF/PF Gregory “GG” Jackson, MEM vs. GSW

SF Moses Moody, GSW at MEM

SF/PF Aaron Wiggins, OKC at DET

SF Jaylon Tyson, CLE at MIL

PF/C Olivier-Maxence Prosper, MEM vs. GSW

PF Ronald Holland II, DET vs. OKC

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Victor Wembanyama, SAS | DK: $10.9k, FD: $11.8k | at TOR

There’s no surprise here, as Wembanyama is nearly impossible to ignore on any slate, but especially on a five-gamer. He’s averaging an absurd 1.98 FPPM over his last five games and, while San Antonio has generally kept his minutes in check, we did see him log 36 minutes against Detroit a couple of nights ago. That at least confirms the ceiling on his workload, and when a player produces at this rate, even a modest minutes bump can have a massive impact.

The Spurs are currently the hottest team in the league, riding a nine-game winning streak and sitting just three games back of a banged-up Thunder squad for the top seed in the West. As we move deeper into the season, playoff positioning starts to matter more when projecting workloads for star players, and that works in Wembanyama’s favor as long as he remains healthy. Matchup plays less of a factor when it comes to superstar players like Wembanyama, but while they’ve been stingy versus centers on the season, Toronto has graded out a subpar 20th in DvP versus the position over their last five games. And while I’m never eager to label a player as “due” for anything, it does feel like one of those 70+ FP Wemby ceiling performances is bound to happen sooner rather than later.

C/PF Jaylin Williams, OKC | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.9k | at DET

Jaylin Williams checks many of the same boxes as the aforementioned Kenrich Williams and profiles as another strong value option on this thin Thunder roster. As we’ve already touched on, Oklahoma City will again be without its top frontcourt pieces, which should result in another start for Williams at center. While his results as a starter have been mixed this season, the upside is undeniable, as we saw in his most recent start against San Antonio, where he erupted for a 24/12/4 line and 51.5 DKFP in 40 minutes.

Unlike some injury-riddled NBA teams that are content to lean into losses, this Thunder group remains motivated to hold onto the No. 1 seed in the West while waiting for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and company to return. That competitive context matters, and it suggests Williams should be leaned on heavily again tonight. While no one is a true lock on a slate like this, Williams projects for significant minutes and a very real path to exceeding value if the opportunity lands where it’s expected to.

Other Centers to Consider

C/PF Alperen Sengun, HOU vs. SAC

C Jalen Duren, DET vs. OKC

C Jarrett Allen, CLE at MIL

C Maxime Raynaud, SAC at HOU

C/PF Al Horford, GSW at MEM

C Thomas Bryant, CLE at MIL

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we have rolled out Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks, UnderDog Fantasy, and other prop apps/sites!

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter/X or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!