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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Picks 2/27 | Dissecting Thursday's Star-Studded Five-Game Slate!

Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Picks 2/27 | Dissecting Thursday's Star-Studded Five-Game Slate!

Thursday, February 27th - DFS Plays & Pick 'Ems for Today's NBA Action!

Ryan Humphries
February 27, 2025

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter/X & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler & Shannon

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

It’s quality over quantity today as a small five-game slate hits the board this Thursday evening. The TNT doubleheader looks like it’ll be a star-studded banger, featuring the Nuggets at Bucks followed by T-Wolves at Lakers. There will be a few key “questionable” designations to keep track of, namely Anthony Edwards, Bradley Beal, LaMelo Ball, and PJ Washington. Aside from those guys, the injury report isn’t too overloaded. Let’s have some fun! Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

Warriors: J. Kuminga - OUT, T. Jackson-Davis - Questionable
Magic: J. Suggs - OUT, C. Anthony - Questionable
Nuggets: J. Murray - Probable, A. Gordon - Probable, P. Watson - OUT
Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable, B. Portis - OUT, P. Connaughton - OUT
Hornets: L. Ball - Questionable, J. Okogie - OUT, J. Nurkic - Questionable, T. Salaun - OUT, D. Jeffries - Questionable, S. Curry - Probable, W. Moore Jr. - Questionable
Mavericks: A. Davis - OUT, PJ Washington - Questionable, D. Gafford - OUT, D. Lively II - OUT, C. Martin - OUT, D. Powell - Questionable
Pelicans: K. Olynyk - OUT, B. Brown - OUT, B. Boston Jr. - OUT
Suns: B. Beal - Questionable, C. Martin - OUT
Timberwolves: A. Edwards - Questionable, J. Randle - OUT, R. Gobert - OUT, D. DiVincenzo - Questionable
Lakers: L. James - Probable

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG/SG Anthony Edwards, MIN | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.7k | at LAL

Edwards is officially “questionable” tonight due to right calf soreness but the star guard has been playing through the ailment and is expected to suit up for this evening’s clash with the Lakers. The Timberwolves may be getting Donte DiVincenzo (toe/questionable) back in the mix tonight, but he would likely be facing some sort of restrictions if he does clear the injury report after missing the previous 19 games, and I wouldn’t expect his potential availability to affect Edwards’ production much, if at all. Minnesota is still playing without Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert. In over 200 minutes played with those two off the floor this season, Edwards has seen a significant +8.3% USG% boost and a massive +19.3 FP per 32-minute increase. Edwards’ 34.3% USG% L5Games leads all guards on this slate. While he has posted some fairly pedestrian numbers against the Lakers in three previous meetings this season, he’ll need to have a big night if the Timberwolves (+6.5 underdogs) are going to knock off the Luka/LeBron-led Lakers this evening.

PG/SG Jamal Murray, DEN | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.1k | at MIL

Murray has been on the injury report with a knee issue for several games now but he has only sat out once in the Nuggets’ last 31 games and his “probable” designation should mean he’s good to go tonight. Murray has averaged a solid 1.10 FPPM on the season but he has upped that to a more impressive 1.27 FPPM L5Games. He has displayed a mammoth ceiling in that span, highlighted by a 55-point, 74.0 DKFP/71.3 FDFP performance against the Trailblazers right before the All-Star Break. Plenty of scoring should be expected in this matchup given its slate-leading 241 over/under, and Murray draws a strong individual matchup as the Bucks have ranked 27th versus starting PGs L20Games.

SG Jordan Hawkins, NOP | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.1k | at PHX

Value could be tough to come by on this small slate, pending additional injury news, but Jordan Hawkins does stand out as a viable cheapie today. While they’re not marquee injuries, the Pelicans will be without Bruce Brown, Kelly Olynyk, and Brandon Boston Jr. this evening, which will lead to a shorter rotation and more potential minutes for a guy like Hawkins. While he has had a handful of starts this season and is a candidate to enter the starting rotation (and thus would be a better-looking value option), I’d lean toward Hawkins continuing to play off of the bench tonight. Either way, he has a better shot at playing mid-to-upper 20s minutes given the slightly shorthanded nature of the Pelicans roster. Hawkins has scored at least 20.5 DKFP/20.8 FDFP in four of the last five games where he has logged at least 24 minutes. Despite being 7.5-point road underdogs, Hawkins and many of the other Pelicans’ players are in a strong spot tonight as the Suns have ranked dead last in DEFRTG over their L10Games.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Luka Doncic, LAL vs. MIN

PG Kyrie Irving, DAL vs. CHA

PG/SG Devin Booker, PHX vs. NOP (Boost if Beal is out)

SF/SG Bradley Beal, PHX vs. NOP (Currently questionable)

PG Jose Alvarado, NOP at PHX (Preferred if starting)

PG Russell Westbrook, DEN at MIL

SG/SF Max Christie, DAL vs. CHA (Preferred if starting)

PG KJ Simpson, CHA at DAL (Preferred if LaMelo is out + Simpson starts)

PG/SG Damion Baugh, CHA at DAL (Only if LaMelo is out)

SG/SF Terrance Shannon Jr., MIN at LAL

PG/SG AJ Green, MIL vs. DEN

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Naz Reid, MIN | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.9k | at LAL

With Naz Reid still flying in under $8k on both sites, I see no reason to stop riding the wave now while both Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert remain out. Reid has secured at least 40.5 DKFP/37.6 FDFP in nine of his last 10 games and he has been particularly outstanding as of late, averaging 48.1 DKFP/46.6 FDFP and 1.30 FPPM over his L5Games. The Lakers have been remarkably strong defensively in recent weeks, ranking 2nd in DEFRTG over their last 10 games. That being said, Reid has still found plenty of success against other top-rated defenses lately -- e.g. OKC and HOU, two teams that Reid and the Timberwolves have faced in five of their last eight games.

PF Bol Bol, PHX | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.9k | vs. NOP

The Suns are still trying to figure out what they want to do with Bol Bol but they most recently re-inserted him back into the starting lineup in Tuesday’s overtime game versus the Grizzlies while sending Royce O’Neale to the bench. Perhaps that was a matchup-dependent move but if Bol sticks in the starting rotation again tonight, he’s going to be tough to ignore, especially at his $4,900 price tag on DraftKings. Across his three starts this season, Bol is averaging a stout 1.23 FPPM and 39.2 DKFP/40.2 FDFP with 18.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG, and 3.7 STL+BLK/gm. Given their 28th-ranked defense, this matchup versus the Pelicans sets up well for all of the key Suns players. Bol Bol could also be more involved offensively if the hot-shooting Bradley Beal (calf/questionable) is unable to suit up. Beal was a late addition to the injury report today, which often doesn’t bode well for a player’s availability.

PF/C Karlo Matkovic, NOP | DK: $4k, FD: $4.5k | at PHX

This is a bit of a speculative value play but Matkovic is another Pelicans player who may see an expanded workload, primarily due to the absence of Kelly Olynyk, who has started in each of the last three games. I’d feel much better about Matkovic if he gets the starting nod, but he has also popped for a couple of solid games off of the bench recently, scoring 30.0 DKFP/29.7 FDFP against the Spurs on Sunday and 31.75 DKFP/35.0 FDFP against the Kings right before the All-Star Break. Matkovic is averaging a respectable 0.94 FPPM L5Games so if the minutes are there tonight, he’s going to set up as a quality value target.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL vs. DEN

SF/PF LeBron James, LAL vs. MIN

PF/C Kevin Durant, PHX vs. NOP (Boost if Beal is out)

PF Paolo Banchero, ORL vs. GSW

SF/SG Trey Murphy III, NOP at PHX

PF/C PJ Washington, DAL vs. CHA (Currently questionable)

SF Jaden McDaniels, MIN at LAL

SF/PF Michael Porter Jr., DEN at MIL

PF/C Aaron Gordon, DEN at MIL

SF/SG Grayson Allen, PHX vs. NOP (Preferred if Beal is out)

SF/SG Jaylen Clark, MIN at LAL

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $12.3k, FD: $12.8k | at MIL

Even on a slate where the center position isn’t overly strong, I could see a scenario in which Nikola Jokic goes a bit under-owned today as folks opt to pay up for the resurging Luka Doncic, who is coming off of a big triple-double against his former team. It is possible to fit both Jokic and Doncic into the same lineup, but the amount of cheap players you have to roster makes those lineups look dicey, at best. But if there’s one thing we’ve learned in recent years, it’s to not fade Jokic on a small slate. No other player in the league has his same high floor/ceiling combination and we should see that on display once again versus the Bucks, who have allowed the 4th most FPPG to starting centers L20Games. As mentioned, the total in this game is over 240 points and it also owns the narrowest spread on the slate with the Nuggets being 3.5-point road favorites. This will be the first time these two teams have faced one another this season but, as he does against most teams, Jokic has a great track record versus the Bucks in recent years.

C Brook Lopez, MIL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6k | vs. DEN

Unlike yesterday’s slate where we had a heap of viable cheap centers to choose from, today’s slate is lacking any standout value options at the position. However, Brook Lopez, while not dirt cheap, will not break the bank at these price points. He’s been in great form lately, averaging 1.13 FPPM and 36.8 DKFP/38.4 FDFP over his last four games. While Giannis Antetokounmpo did play limited minutes in a couple of those games while coming off of his calf injury, I don’t believe it’s a coincidence that Lopez has had these strong DFS results over these last four games while PF/C Bobby Portis has been out of the rotation while serving a 25-game suspension. With Portis out of the picture, Lopez’s chances of reaching around 35 minutes only rise. And he’ll draw a promising matchup as the Nuggets have ranked 28th versus starting centers L20Games while allowing 1.18 FPPM to the position in that stretch.

Other Centers to Consider

C Wendell Carter Jr., ORL vs. GSW

C Yves Missi, NOP at PHX

C Dwight Powell, DAL vs. CHA

C Quinten Post, GSW at ORL

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Anthony Edwards MORE than 9.5 Three-Pointers Attempted

Jordan Hawkins MORE than 14.5 Points + Rebounds

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

🫡 Check out our revamped BetFully Cashback App (iOS only sorry) and get up to $200 cashback for trying new Sportsbook, DFS, horse-racing apps and playing games! ✔️✔️✔️

NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler & Shannon

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

It’s another busy day in the NBA. Eleven games reside on the Wednesday schedule -- DraftKings will exclude the two late games (PHX/OKC and ORL/SAC) from their main slate while FanDuel will feature the full menu. Trades continue to go down with the biggest move today involving the Bucks and Wizards trading Khris Middleton for Kyle Kuzma. The injury report is also a complete fiasco so keep those eyes and ears peeled for all the news that drops throughout the afternoon and evening! Let’s jump into the chaos! Best of luck!

NBA Trade Tracker

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/transactions/trade/

Today’s Key Injuries

Spurs: C. Paul - Questionable, C. Bassey - OUT
Hawks: C. Capela - OUT, B. Bogdanovic - OUT
Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable, D. Lillard - Probable, B. Portis - Probable, K. Middleton - OUT (traded), AJ Johnson - OUT (traded)
Hornets: L. Ball - OUT, J. Okogie - OUT, V. Micic - Questionable, T. Mann - OUT, C. Martin - OUT
Cavs: D. Mitchell - Questionable, D. Wade - OUT, I. Okoro - OUT
Pistons: None
Wizards: K. Kuzma - OUT (traded), A. Sarr - OUT, P. Baldwin Jr. - OUT (traded)
Nets: C. Thomas - OUT, N. Clowney - OUT, D. Sharpe - Questionable, T. Watford - OUT
Grizzlies: D. Bane - OUT, B. Clarke - Questionable, M. Smart - Questionable, J. Konchar - Questionable, V. Williams Jr. - Questionable
Raptors: RJ Barrett - OUT, J. Poeltl - OUT, I. Quickley - OUT, C. Boucher - Questionable
Heat: J. Butler - OUT, D. Robinson - Probable, H. Highsmith - Probable
76ers: J. Embiid - OUT, P. George - Doubtful, A. Drummond - Doubtful, Q. Grimes - Questionable (trade pending), E. Gordon - Questionable, K. Lowry - Questionable
Bulls: L. Ball - OUT, T. Jones - OUT, Z. Collins - OUT, T. Horton-Tucker - OUT, K. Huerter - OUT, D. Terry - Questionable
Timberwolves: J. Randle - OUT, D. DiVincenzo - OUT
Warriors: A. Wiggins - Probable, J. Kuminga - OUT, D. Green - Probable, M. Moody - OUT
Jazz: L. Markkanen - Questionable, C. Sexton - OUT, C. Williams - OUT
Pelicans: B. Ingram - OUT, J. Alvarado - Questionable, D. Theis - OUT (traded)
Nuggets: R. Westbrook - OUT, A. Gordon - Questionable, P. Watson - OUT

Late Game Injury Report (FanDuel Main Slate Only)

Suns: K. Durant - OUT
Thunder: C. Holmgren - OUT, C. Wallace - OUT
Magic: J. Suggs - Doubtful
Kings: None

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG/SG Jamal Murray, DEN | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.3k | vs. NOP

The Nuggets lead the slate with a lofty 124.8 implied team total so the Denver studs will make plenty of sense today. Jamal Murray has been playing very well of late, averaging 1.21 FPPM L5Games and scoring at least 42.0 DKFP/44.0 FDFP in four of those last five games. He has secured 40+ FP in all three previous meetings with the Pelicans this season and, given their 29th-ranked DEFRTG and 29th-ranked DvP versus starting PGs L20Games, Murray’s expectations should be high once again this evening.

PG/SG Isaiah Collier, UTA | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.2k | vs. GSW

Perhaps not the most exciting DFS play, but Isaiah Collier has provided some quality value in recent weeks, routinely returning 6x value at these low-$5k price points. Collier’s minutes and role should be more secure with Collin Sexton (ankle/out) expected to be sidelined for at least a week -- with Sexton only playing three minutes in Monday’s game, Collier went on to supply a point/assist double-double in 32 minutes versus the Pacers. Collier has also shot it significantly better at home this season with a 48.5% FG% versus a 32.6% FG% on the road. This may not be the best match-up but Collier did post a quality 12/6/9 stat line and 31.0 DKFP/28.7 FDFP against the Warriors just last Tuesday, and that was with Sexton active and putting up 30 points of his own.

SG Gradey Dick, TOR | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.6k | vs. MEM

The Raptors will be shorthanded today with RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl, and Immanuel Quickley ruled out. Gradey Dick has seen a notable +4.5% USG% boost with those three players off the court this season along with a +5.8 FP per 32 minutes increase. Both teams in this game rank top 10 in pace, with Memphis ranking 1st in the NBA, so there will be plenty of possessions to go around. If the Raptors (+10.5) hope to pull off the upset, Gradey Dick will likely need to be heavily involved in the scoring.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Cade Cunningham, DET vs. CLE

PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI vs. MIA

PG/SG Anthony Edwards, MIN vs. CHI

SG/SF Trey Murphy III, NOP at DEN

PG Darius Garland, CLE at DET (Boost if D. Mitchell is out)

PG/SG Dyson Daniels, ATL vs. SAS

PG Josh Giddey, CHI at MIN

PG Jordan Poole, WAS at BKN

PG Keyonte George, UTA vs. GSW

SG/SF Bilal Coulibaly, WAS at BKN

SG/SF Christian Braun, DEN vs. NOP

PG/SG Keon Johnson, BKN vs. WAS

PG Ty Jerome, CLE at DET (Preferred if D. Mitchell is out)

PG Jamal Shead, TOR vs. MEM

FanDuel Main Slate Only

SG/SF Devin Booker, PHX at OKC

PG/SG Malik Monk, SAC vs. ORL

PG/SG Cole Anthony, ORL at SAC

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.7k | at TOR

Over the last two games, JJJ has led the Grizzlies in scoring, with 31 and 37 points, as well as usage rate, with 31.8% USG% and 43.8% USG%. One of those games was without Ja Morant, but the other was without Desmond Bane, who will be out once again tonight. For a big man, Jackson is not a very prolific rebounder, but he can rack up multiple blocks and steals on any given night and he’ll draw a strong individual match-up. The Raptors have ranked 27th versus starting PFs L20Games and when these teams met in late December, Jackson dropped 50.25 DKFP/49.2 FDFP. I believe we can get a similar result out of him this evening.

SF/PF Michael Porter Jr., DEN | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.6k | vs. NOP

MPJ has mostly been a solid floor play throughout this season but he erupted for 36 points and 52.75 DKFP/49.4 FDFP against this same Pelicans team on Monday. I believe the Peyton Watson (knee/out) injury is a bit underrated in regards to Porter’s role. Watson has been a key piece off of the Nuggets’ bench this season and, with Watson sidelined the last two games, Porter has played 40+ minutes in each contest. We can’t expect a repeat performance from Monday but I’d say 40+ FP is well within Porter’s wheelhouse tonight.

PF Matas Buzelis, CHI | DK: $4k, FD: $4.2k | at MIN

The Bulls took Buzelis with the 11th overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. With Zach LaVine shipped off to the Kings and none of the recently acquired players (Kevin Huerter, Zach Collins, Tre Jones) ready to make their Chicago debut, Buzelis will have a chance to continue playing in an expanded role. He logged a season-high 31 minutes off of the bench in last night’s game versus the Heat and went on to score 24 points and 32.0 DKFP/31.4 FDFP. Buzelis has averaged a respectable 0.92 FPPM L5Games and, should he flirt with 30 minutes again tonight, he’ll be a great bet to return some nice value.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL at CHA

SF/PG Scottie Barnes, TOR vs. MEM

PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE at DET (Boost if D. Mitchell is out)

PF/C John Collins, UTA vs. GSW

PF/C Naz Reid, MIN vs. CHI

PF/C Guerschon Yabusele, PHI vs. MIA

SF/PF Zaccharie Risacher, ATL vs. SAS

SF/PF Justin Edwards, PHI vs. MIA

SF/SG Corey Kispert, WAS at BKN

SF/PF Gregory Jackson, MEM at TOR

SF/PF Justin Champagnie WAS at BKN (Preferred if starting)

SF/SG Ja’Kobe Walter, TOR vs. MEM (Preferred if starting)

FanDuel Main Slate Only

PF/SF Paolo Banchero, ORL at SAC

SF/SG Grayson Allen, PHX at OKC

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Rudy Gobert, MIN | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.9k | vs. CHI

Gobert continues to play some of his best basketball of the season following a 19/13/3 (plus two blocks and a steal) stat line against the Kings on Monday. He has now scored at least 37.0 DKFP/36.5 FDFP in five of his last six games, including three games of at least 47.25 DKFP/48.1 FDFP in that span. Gobert has averaged +4.6 FP per 32 minutes with Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo (both out) off the floor this season and, as always, the Bulls represent an elite match-up for opposing centers, ranking 29th against the position this season. Gobert’s DFS salaries are on the up and up but there’s still some real upside at his sub-$7k price points.

C Kelly Olynyk, TOR | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4k | vs. MEM

There is some pretty clear value here with Kelly Olynyk expected to start in place of the injured Jakob Poeltl. In his only other start this season, which also came against the Grizzlies in late December, Olynyk averaged 1.20 FPPM and scored 27.75 DKFP/25.50 FDFP. Olynyk only played 23 minutes in that game but I believe he could get closer to 26-28 minutes as the starter tonight. Either way, he won’t have to do much to pay off these bottom-of-the-barrel salaries tonight.

Other Centers to Consider

C Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. NOP

C Victor Wembanyama, SAS at ATL

C Mark Williams, CHA vs. MIL

C Jalen Duren, DET vs. CLE

C Kel’el Ware, MIA at PHI

C Zach Edey, MEM at TOR

C Kevon Looney, GSW at UTA

C Quinten Post, GSW at UTA

FanDuel Main Slate Only

C/PF Domantas Sabonis, SAC vs. ORL

C Isaiah Hartenstein, OKC vs. PHX

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

No picks from me today but, as always, Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!