Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter/X & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

NBA DFS Today w/ Tyler Wiemann

🏀Tyler’s NBA prop bets can be found on the LineStar YouTube Shorts page!🏀

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

We’ll close out the workweek with a solid-looking five-game NBA slate. Outside of Nets–Celtics, there are some appealing matchups on the board, and the injury report makes this one especially interesting. Teams are either close to full strength or dealing with multiple impact players who are out, doubtful, or carrying questionable tags. It won’t be without its challenges, but this slate sets up as a fun one to navigate. Best of luck!

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Today’s Key Injuries 🚑

^{Note: NBA injury reports can be fickle and often update throughout the day. Be sure to stay up-to-date on all injury news leading up to tip-off as the list below may be a bit outdated by the time you’re reading this.}

^{Additional Note: Players who have yet to play this season will be excluded from the injury report, unless they have either a probable, questionable, or doubtful injury designation, with some amount of chance to make their season debut. Injured players who have been out for an extended period of time and/or are not expected to play for a month-plus will also be excluded.}

• Cavs: D. Mitchell – OUT, J. Harden – Questionable, D. Schroder – Probable, D. Wade – DOUBTFUL, K. Ellis – Questionable

• Pistons: I. Stewart – OUT

• Nets: None

• Celtics: None

• Knicks: None

• Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo – OUT

• Grizzlies: J. Morant – OUT, T. Jerome – DOUBTFUL, Z. Edey – OUT, S. Aldama – OUT, C. Coward – OUT

• Mavs: C. Flagg – OUT, PJ Washington – DOUBTFUL, M. Bagley III – OUT, K. Thompson – DOUBTFUL, C. Martin – Questionable

• Nuggets: J. Murray – Questionable, P. Watson – OUT, A. Gordon – OUT, J. Strawther – Probable, S. Jones – Questionable, J. Pickett – Questionable

• Thunder: Jal. Williams – OUT, A. Mitchell – OUT, B. Carlson – OUT

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG/SG Kevin Porter Jr., MIL | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.6k | vs. NYK

Unless you’re paying all the way up for Cade Cunningham and betting on a shorthanded Cleveland team to keep things close, spending up at guard carries some added risk on this slate. That said, Kevin Porter Jr. still deserves serious consideration, especially on DraftKings at $8,600. His price has been climbing on both sites, but the production continues to justify it.

Since returning from his oblique injury, KPJ has scored at least 43.5 DKFP in seven of his last eight games and is averaging 46.8 DKFP across 34.1 minutes per contest. He’s firmly taken control of Milwaukee’s offense with Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined, scoring 20+ points in four straight games while contributing across the board. Porter has also recorded multiple steals in five consecutive games and has reached double-digit assists in two of his last six, giving him a strong peripheral floor even when the scoring fluctuates.

The matchup is not ideal on paper, as New York is a defensively-minded team that plays at a slower pace, but Porter has been largely matchup-proof during this stretch. He’s commanding usage, handling primary playmaking duties, and consistently logging heavy minutes in competitive games. While the Knicks can cap ceilings in some spots, KPJ’s role and recent form keep him firmly in play as one of the safer high-end guard options available tonight.

PG/SG Brandon Williams, DAL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6k | vs. MEM

Brandon Williams continues to profile as one of the steadier mid-range value guards, especially with the Mavericks dealing with multiple key absences. With Cooper Flagg and Marvin Bagley III already ruled out and both PJ Washington and Klay Thompson listed as doubtful, there’s a clear path for Williams to push toward a heavier workload than usual. He’s been productive in a bench role, averaging 15.6 points and 4.6 assists in just 22.6 minutes per game over his last 12.

Williams typically anchors the second unit, and the potential lack of scoring around him should translate to added usage when he’s on the floor. This is also a favorable matchup, as Memphis has ranked 24th in DvP versus bench guards over their last 20 games. If Williams creeps closer to the upper-20s or even 30 minutes, his per-minute production gives him a very realistic path to returning strong value again.

PG/SG Javon Small, MEM | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.3k | at DAL

The Grizzlies–Mavericks game stands out immediately when hunting for value, as it carries the highest total on the slate and features multiple rotation players stepping into expanded roles. Javon Small fits that mold well, continuing to carve out meaningful minutes for a Memphis team that remains short-handed in the backcourt.

Across his last six games, Small has averaged an excellent 1.21 FPPM. He’s topped 30 DKFP in four of those contests and has scored at least 15 real points in three of his last four, highlighted by a 21-point, nine-assist performance that resulted in 43.5 DKFP against Sacramento.

With Ja Morant and Cedric Coward still sidelined and Ty Jerome listed as doubtful, Small should continue to see steady usage and ball-handling responsibility. Current expectations are that he’ll draw the start at shooting guard this evening, which gives him an elite matchup as the Mavs – who are on the second leg of a back-to-back – have ranked dead last versus starting SGs over their last 20 games. If Small lands in the mid-to-upper 20s in minutes again, his recent FPPM profile gives him a very real path to outperforming salary in one of the slate’s best scoring environments.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Cade Cunningham, DET vs. CLE

PG Jalen Brunson, NYK at MIL

SG Christian Braun, DEN at OKC (Boost if Murray is out)

PG Scotty Pippen Jr., MEM at DAL

PG Dennis Schroder, CLE at DET (Boost if Harden is out)

SG Max Christie, DAL vs. MEM

PG/SG Bruce Brown, DEN at OKC (Only if Murray is out)

SG/SF Keon Ellis, CLE at DET (Currently questionable - Boost if Harden is out)

SG/SF Rayan Rupert, MEM at DAL

PG Jose Alvarado, NYK at MIL

PG KJ Simpson, DEN at OKC (Only if Murray is out)

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF Naji Marshall, DAL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.2k | vs. MEM

Much like the guard position, the forward pool is thin on true spend-up options tonight, which makes Marshall a strong place to start in the mid-range. With Cooper Flagg and Marvin Bagley III already ruled out and both PJ Washington and Klay Thompson trending toward absences as well, Marshall is once again set up to shoulder a massive role for Dallas. With those players off the floor this season, he’s averaged an excellent 1.30 FPPM and has consistently been asked to lead the team in both usage and minutes.

The recent production backs it up. Marshall erupted for 36 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists for 58 DKFP against Sacramento last night and posted a 39.2 DKFP effort versus Brooklyn earlier in the week. He’s currently projected for around 33.5 minutes, and that may prove conservative if this game remains competitive, given how thin the Mavericks’ rotation is right now. The only real red flag here is the potential fatigue factor, after Marshall logged 42 minutes in last night’s contest.

PF Gregory “GG” Jackson, MEM | DK: $6k, FD: $6.3k | at DAL

Jackson continues to do exactly what we want from a mid-range forward – he produces at an elite per-minute clip and finds ways to get there even with modest run. Over his last five games, he’s averaged an excellent 1.37 FPPM and has cleared 33 DKFP in four of those outings, showing legitimate 40+ FP upside when the peripherals fall in line with the scoring. Despite being down a handful of their top players, Memphis remains frustratingly conservative with minutes across the rotation, typically capping most players in the 25–28 range, but Jackson has proven that he doesn’t need extended run to pay off. With the Grizzlies still shorthanded and Jackson operating as one of their primary offensive options, the role remains secure. The matchup helps as well, with Dallas ranking 27th in DvP versus starting power forwards over their last 20 games.

PF Ronald Holland II, DET | DK: $4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. CLE

I don’t want to oversaturate this newsletter with players from the Grizzlies–Mavs game, but that matchup is where most of the standout value lives. To mix things up, Holland makes sense as a more contrarian punt. With Isaiah Stewart still serving his suspension stemming from the February 9th altercation against Charlotte, Holland has had opportunities to carve out a larger role at times. He’s averaging a steady 1.17 FPPM over his last six games and is only two games removed from a 15-point, 11-rebound double-double against the Spurs in 26 minutes. He should be a good bet to land in the 18–22-minute range tonight, and if James Harden (thumb/questionable) is unable to suit up for Cleveland, the increased blowout risk could open the door for a few extra late-game minutes for Holland as well.

Other Forwards to Consider

SF/SG Jaylen Brown, BOS vs. BKN

PF OG Anunoby, NYK at MIL

PF Khris Middleton, DAL vs. MEM

SF Jaylon Tyson, CLE at DET (Assuming he starts)

SF/PF Cameron Johnson, DEN at OKC

SF Jaylen Wells, MEM at DAL

PF/C Olivier-Maxence Prosper, MEM at DAL

SF/PF Taylor Hendricks, MEM at DAL

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $12.3k, FD: $12.6k | at OKC

With limited true stud options on this slate but plenty of salary relief available, Jokic stands out as the most natural spend-up. He continues to separate himself from the field with an unmatched combination of ceiling and floor, and the recent production backs it up. Jokic has cleared 60 DKFP in six of his last eight games, highlighted by a ridiculous 35/20/12 triple-double (91.5 DKFP) against Golden State on Sunday. Even in Wednesday’s blowout win over Boston, he still managed 57 DKFP.

The matchup isn’t soft on paper, as OKC gets a major boost with SGA returning to the lineup tonight and they still rank first in DEFRTG. That said, the Thunder have been far less dominant versus opposing centers, allowing the 11th-most FPPG to the position over their last 20 games. With Jamal Murray questionable and Denver likely leaning heavily on its MVP once again, Jokic should have everything running through him. If you’re spending up anywhere tonight, center remains the clearest path, and Jokic is the safest way to do it.

C Daniel Gafford, DAL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5k | vs. MEM

We’ll close things out with one more piece from this game, as Gafford steps in as a viable salary-saving option at center. His minutes and per-minute production have dipped in recent weeks, but with Marvin Bagley III (neck) ruled out, his role should stabilize tonight. He’s currently projecting for around 27.5 minutes, which is enough to put him firmly on the DFS radar at these price points.

Gafford has averaged a respectable 1.10 FPPM at home this season and still carries some spike-game potential when the minutes cooperate. The matchup helps as well, with Memphis allowing the seventh-most FPPG to starting centers over their last 20 games. If the minutes hold, Gafford fits nicely as another cheap way to round out builds in this appealing Mavs/Grizzlies game environment.

Other Centers to Consider

C Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK at MIL

C Jalen Duren, DET vs. CLE

C Jarrett Allen, CLE at DET

C Mitchell Robinson, NYK at MIL

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we have rolled out Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks, UnderDog Fantasy, and other prop apps/sites!

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter/X or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!