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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler & Shannon

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Tuesday will set us up with a solid seven-game slate! As a reminder, there are two more days until the trade deadline arrives so make sure you’re watching for any notable moves. While it didn’t carry the same weight as the two big weekend trades, the Mavs & 76ers initiated a trade this afternoon sending Quentin Grimes to Philly and Caleb Martin to Dallas. There are sure to be several other moves over the next 48 hours, so this week’s chaos will continue to build! With that said, let’s dive into today’s action. Best of luck!

NBA Trade Tracker

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/transactions/trade/

Today’s Key Injuries

• Mavericks: A. Davis - OUT, PJ Washington - OUT, D. Lively II - OUT, Q. Grimes - OUT (traded), D. Powell - OUT

• 76ers: J. Embiid - Questionable, P. George - OUT, A. Drummond - Questionable, C. Martin - OUT (traded), E. Gordon - Questionable, K. Lowry - Questionable, KJ Martin - Questionable

• Rockets: A. Sengun - Probable, F. VanVleet - OUT, T. Eason - OUT, J. Smith Jr. - OUT, S. Adams - Questionable, J. Landale - Questionable

• Nets: C. Johnson - OUT, C. Thomas - OUT, N. Clowney - OUT, B. Simmons - OUT

• Celtics: None

• Cavs: D. Wade - OUT, I. Okoro - OUT

• Knicks: K. Towns - Probable, J. Hart - Probable, M. Bridges - Probable, OG Anunoby - OUT

• Raptors: RJ Barrett - OUT, B. Brown - Questionable, C. Boucher - Questionable

• Heat: J. Butler - OUT, D. Robinson - Probable

• Bulls: J. Smith - Questionable, T. Jones - OUT, T. Horton-Tucker - Doubtful, Z. Collins - OUT, K. Huerter - OUT, D. Terry - Doubtful

• Lakers: L. Doncic - OUT, L. James - Probable, G. Vincent - Probable, C. Reddish - Doubtful, M. Kleber - OUT

• Clippers: None

• Pacers: M. Turner - Questionable, A. Nesmith - Questionable

• Trailblazers: None

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG/SG Donovan Mitchell, CLE | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.6k | vs. BOS

We get an outstanding match-up between the Cavs and Celtics tonight, which will pit the top two teams in the Eastern Conference standings against one another for the third time this season. The first two games between these teams were decided by a combined seven points with each team garnering one win and one loss. Donovan Mitchell played a huge role in those previous meetings, scoring 35 points in both contests and averaging 53.1 DKFP/51.0 FDFP. It’s tough to rely on a player’s career numbers versus a certain team, but Mitchell has generally excelled against the Celtics across his NBA career, averaging 30.2 PPG, 4.8 APG, 4.7 RPG, and 1.3 STL+BLK/gm across 18 regular season match-ups. This match-up owns both the highest total (238.5 O/U) and closest spread (CLE -1) on the slate. There isn’t a standout stud guard on the board today so I don’t mind banking on a ceiling-type game out of Mitchell this evening and he’s currently checking in at < 10% pOwn% on both DK and FD.

PG Jalen Brunson, NYK | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.8k | at TOR

Brunson erupted for one of his biggest games of the season last night, piling on 42 points on 14/27 shooting alongside 10 assists, six rebounds, and two steals (68.5 DKFP/66.20 FDFP) across 37 minutes. He accounted for a mammoth 43.3% USG% and it was also his third points/assists double-double in his previous five games. OG Anunoby (foot/out) will miss a second consecutive game and Brunson has handled a team-leading +6.7% USG% boost with Anunoby off the floor this season. Brunson hasn’t necessarily crushed it against the Raptors this season and we do have the back-to-back factor to consider. That said, it’s still a plus match-up versus Toronto’s 24th-ranked defense and they represent a sizable pace-up boost as well (NYK: 24th in pace, TOR: 9th in pace).

PG/SG Keon Johnson, BKN | DK: $5k, FD: $5.6k | vs. HOU

The value at guard is a bit underwhelming at the moment, pending further injury updates, but Keon Johnson does stand out as a worthwhile option out of the $5k range. The Nets are missing four key players with Cam Johnson, Cam Thomas, Noah Clowney, and Ben Simmons all sidelined tonight. The C. Thomas and C. Johnson injuries aren’t exactly new developments but a guy like Keon Johnson should hang on to a key role regardless. Over his last five games, he has taken on a solid 25.3% USG% while averaging 1.02 FPPM across 30.9 Min/gm, resulting in 31.4 DKFP/31.4 FDFP per game during that span. The Nets (+10) are the largest underdogs on the slate but these two teams did just play each other three days ago. The Rockets were shorthanded (and still are) in that game, and the Nets were able to pull off the upset in a 110-98 victory. Keon Johnson supplied a quality 13/9/5 stat line in that game across 34 minutes, resulting in 33.75 DKFP/32.3 FDFP. The Rockets have been a top-five overall defense but they haven’t defended starting SGs well, allowing the 8th most FPPG to the position L20Games. So, with all of that said, I’d say there’s a decent chance for Keon Johnson to turn in a similar performance to the one he had against Houston on Saturday.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI vs. DAL (Boost if J. Embiid remains out)

PG James Harden, LAC vs. LAL

PG Kyrie Irving, DAL at PHI

PG Tyler Herro, MIA at CHI

PG Josh Giddey, CHI vs. MIA

SG/SF Norman Powell, LAC vs. LAL

SG Coby White, CHI vs. MIA

SG/SF Mikal Bridges, NYK at TOR

PG/SG Derrick White, BOS at CLE

PG/SG Terry Rozier, MIA at CHI

SG Duncan Robinson, MIA at CHI

PG/SG Caris LeVert, CLE vs. BOS

PG/SG Miles McBride, NYK at TOR

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Bam Adebayo, MIA | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.1k | at CHI

Several Heat players are setting up to be fairly chalky tonight, which is a bit concerning… but it’s difficult to ignore Bam Adebayo’s level of play heading into tonight. Adebayo, who now has power forward eligibility on both DK and FD, has averaged 1.31 FPPM over his last four games and he fell one assist shy of recording a triple-double in two of those games. He has taken on the second-highest usage increase on the team with Jimmy Butler (suspended) off the court and Adebayo draws an excellent match-up versus a Bulls team that is 3rd in pace, 23rd versus starting PFs L20Games, and has allowed the most points in the paint per game this season.

SF/SG Ziaire Williams, BKN | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5k | vs. HOU

I believe we can find further value in this depleted Nets lineup by way of Ziaire Williams, who tied a season-high with 37 minutes played in his last game which, once again, was versus this same Rockets team. Despite handling a pedestrian 19.8% USG% in the previous game, Williams led the Nets with 21 points and 39.5 DKFP/41.1 FDFP. Williams has averaged a solid 0.95 FPPM L20Starts so, should he land somewhere in the low-to-mid 30s minutes range, he’ll be a good bet to return some nice fantasy point per dollar value.

SF/SG Cam Whitmore, HOU | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.1k | at BKN

While the Rockets should get their star center Alperen Sengun (calf/probable) back in the mix, they’ll be without Fred VanVleet, Tari Eason, and Jabari Smith Jr. tonight. That should open up some solid minutes and usage off of the bench for Cam Whitmore. He has been rebounding from an illness over the last week but Whitmore made the most of his 23 minutes last night, putting up 18 points on 7/14 shooting and 32.25 DKFP/33.5 FDFP. When his shot is falling, Whitmore doesn’t need huge minutes to rack up the fantasy points in a hurry but, with most of the starters playing heavy minutes on the front end of a back-to-back last night, and Sengun coming off of an injury, I could see Whitmore playing upwards of 26-28 minutes tonight.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF LeBron James, LAL at LAC

SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS at CLE

SF/PG Amen Thompson, HOU at BKN

SF/SG Jaylen Brown, BOS at CLE

PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE vs. BOS

SF/PF Deni Avdija, POR vs. IND

SF/SG Toumani Camara, POR vs. IND

SF/PF Rui Hachimura, LAL at LAC

PF/C Nikola Jovic, MIA at CHI

PF Dillon Brooks, HOU at BKN

PF Olivier-Maxence Prosper, DAL at PHI (Only if starting)

PF Matas Buzelis, CHI vs. MIA

SF/PF Ochai Agbaji, TOR vs. NYK

SF/PF Jae’Sean Tate, HOU at BKN (Preferred if starting)

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Daniel Gafford, DAL | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.8k | at PHI

The Mavs roster has seen a major overhaul over the last 72 hours but, with Anthony Davis not yet ready to make his Dallas debut, we can feel pretty good about rolling with Gafford once again. Gafford missed the previous game with an ankle issue but is off the injury report today and should be ready to roll -- worth noting, PJ Washington (personal/out) will not be available tonight either. Gafford’s biggest hurdle has been minutes this season but he’s handled at least 33 minutes in five of his last seven games while Dereck Lively II has been out. In those five games, Gafford has scored no fewer than 41.0 DKFP/42.4 FDFP and has posted a ceiling of 71.75 DKFP/77.50 FDFP. Assuming he has no limitations tonight, he is setting up well from an upside perspective.

C Kel’el Ware, MIA | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.2k | at CHI

Ware has been a little inconsistent since entering the Heat’s starting rotation but we’ve seen 40+ FP upside out of him on multiple occasions. Overall, he has averaged just under an FPPM as a starter and has played at least 34 minutes in four of his six starts. Ware will have a great chance to post another ceiling game versus the Bulls, who have allowed the 2nd most FPPG to starting centers this season.

Other Centers to Consider

C Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK at TOR

C Nikola Jokic, CHI vs. MIA

C Ivica Zubac, LAC vs. LAL

C Kristaps Porzingis, BOS at CLE

C Deandre Ayton, POR vs. IND

C Thomas Bryant, IND at POR (Preferred if M. Turner is out + Bryant starts)

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Donovan Mitchell MORE than 30.5 Points + Assists

Derrick White MORE than 10.5 FG Attempted

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!