Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter/X & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

NBA DFS Today w/ Tyler Wiemann

🏀Tyler’s NBA prop bets can be found on the LineStar YouTube Shorts page!🏀

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Hope everyone enjoyed their Super Bowl Sunday. We dive back into the NBA action with a solid seven-game Monday slate that offers a nice mix of competitive spreads and several high-total environments. While the injury report includes a number of high-impact names, it’s relatively manageable overall and shouldn’t overwhelm the slate. There’s plenty to work with here, so let’s get to it. Best of luck!

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Today’s Key Injuries 🚑

^{Note: NBA injury reports can be fickle and often update throughout the day. Be sure to stay up-to-date on all injury news leading up to tip-off as the list below may be a bit outdated by the time you’re reading this.}

^{Additional Note: Players who have yet to play this season will be excluded from the injury report, unless they have either a probable, questionable, or doubtful injury designation, with some amount of chance to make their season debut. Injured players who have been out for an extended period of time and/or are not expected to play for a month-plus will also be excluded.}

• Pistons: J. Duren – Probable, R. Holland II – OUT

• Hornets: C. White – OUT

• Bulls: J. Giddey – DOUBTFUL, J. Smith – Questionable, T. Jones – DOUBTFUL, Z. Collins – OUT

• Nets: M. Porter Jr. – OUT, E. Demin – OUT

• Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo – OUT

• Magic: None

• Jazz: K. George – OUT, K. Love – OUT

• Heat: B. Adebayo – Probable, T. Herro – OUT, N. Powell – Questionable, P. Larsson – DOUBTFUL

• Hawks: J. Johnson – Questionable, D. Daniels – Questionable, J. Kuminga – OUT

• Timberwolves: None

• Kings: D. Sabonis – OUT, Z. LaVine – OUT, K. Murray – OUT, D. Hunter – OUT, M. Monk – OUT, D. McDermott – Questionable

• Pelicans: None

• Cavs: E. Mobley – OUT, J. Tyson – Questionable, D. Wade – Questionable

• Nuggets: N. Jokic – Probable, J. Murray – Questionable, P. Watson – OUT, A. Gordon – OUT, C. Braun – Probable, S. Jones – OUT

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Isaiah Collier, UTA | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.2k | at MIA

With Keyonte George sidelined again after re-injuring his ankle, Collier is locked into a featured role for Utah. With George off the floor, Collier sees a sizable +6.1 percentage point boost to his usage rate, pairing that with a team-leading 38.8% assist rate, while his production jumps from 0.80 to 1.02 FPPM. He’s also handled an extreme workload, playing all 48 minutes in each of his last two starts – something you almost never see in today’s NBA. That volume has translated into production, as he’s averaged 53.4 DKFP over his last three games while piling up points and assists at an elite clip. As long as George remains out, Collier’s minutes, usage, and ball-dominant role keep him firmly in play despite the elevated price.

PG/SG Collin Sexton, CHI | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.7k | at BKN

Sexton looks like one of the cleaner value guards on this seven-game slate as Chicago continues to operate shorthanded in the backcourt. He played 29 minutes in his Bulls debut, finishing with 17 points, four assists, and 25.2 DKFP, and he’s projected for a similar workload again tonight with Josh Giddey and Tre Jones both doubtful. Whether he starts or comes off the bench again, Sexton should remain heavily involved with the ball and has averaged a rock-solid 1.06 FPPM on the season. The matchup adds to the appeal, as Brooklyn ranks 26th in defensive rating and has allowed the sixth-most FPPG to reserve players over their last 20 games. At these price points with dual guard eligibility on both sites, Sexton is easy to fit across all lineup builds.

PG/SG Devin Carter, SAC | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.6k | at NOP

Carter is another cheap guard who has been consistently paying off his current DFS price points. Sacramento enters this matchup with a thin rotation – Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, Keegan Murray, De’Andre Hunter, and Malik Monk are all ruled out. These absences should put Carter in line for another meaningful role off the bench. Over his last three games, he’s averaged 29.5 DKFP per game across 24.3 minutes, good for a stout 1.21 FPPM. He currently projects for around 25.0 minutes tonight and, given how well he’s been filling the stat sheet, that should be more than enough runway to deliver another solid return. The matchup helps as well, with New Orleans ranking 27th in defensive rating.

Other Guards to Consider

SG Anthony Edwards, MIN vs. ATL

SG Donovan Mitchell, CLE at DEN

PG Jamal Murray, DEN vs. CLE (Currently questionable)

PG Trey Murphy III, NOP vs. SAC

PG Russell Westbrook, SAC at NOP

PG/SG Kevin Porter Jr., MIL at ORL

PG Jalen Suggs, ORL vs. MIL

SG Desmond Bane, ORL vs. MIL

SG Kon Knueppel, CHA vs. DET

SG Anfernee Simons, CHI at BKN

PG/SG Jaden Ivey, CHI at BKN

SG/SF Nique Clifford, SAC at NOP (Only if starting)

SG/SF Herb Jones, NOP vs. SAC

PG Nolan Traore, BKN vs. CHI

SG/SF Myron Gardner, MIA vs. UTA (Only if starting)

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF Jalen Johnson, ATL | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.6k | at MIN

Johnson has been on a wildly productive fantasy run. Over his last four games, he’s averaged 66.8 DKFP/gm while posting 28.8 PPG, 11.8 RPG, and 11.0 APG, good for an elite 1.77 FPPM during that stretch – that’s legitimately Jokic/Luka-level per-minute production. Minnesota ranks top 10 in DEFRTG, but that didn’t slow Johnson down earlier this season, when he dropped 34 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists for 63 DKFP against the Wolves. He was added to the injury report late and is now questionable with knee inflammation, so status will need to be monitored closely. If he’s cleared to play, Johnson’s combination of minutes, usage, and all-around production makes him difficult to fade, especially on a slate with plenty of value to help make the salary work.

PF/C Dylan Cardwell, SAC | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.4k | at NOP

Cardwell continues to benefit from Sacramento’s thinned-out frontcourt and has taken full advantage of the opportunity. The rookie is coming off back-to-back double-doubles, averaging 13.0 PPG, 12.5 RPG, and 38.2 DKFP/gm over that two-game stretch. He’s been efficient as well, going 13-for-20 from the field while chipping in assists and defensive stats. With Domantas Sabonis set to miss a third straight game, Cardwell should again see meaningful run, and if his minutes land in the mid-20s, he’s well-positioned to return value against a vulnerable Pelicans frontcourt.

SF/SG Julian Strawther, DEN | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.3k | vs. CLE

Denver will again be short-handed on the wing, with Peyton Watson, Aaron Gordon, and Spencer Jones all sidelined, which puts Strawther in line for a potential start and a sizable workload. He’s currently projected for 29.0 minutes and has made the most of similar opportunities, averaging 19.5 PPG, 1.05 FPPM, and 31.5 DKFP in his two recent spot starts. That level of production would easily pay off his low-$4k salaries if the minutes hold. This matchup also checks in as one of the best environments on the slate, carrying the second-highest total (239.5) and the tightest spread (DEN -1.5).

Other Forwards to Consider

PF Julius Randle, MIN vs. ATL

PF Zion Williamson, NOP vs. SAC

SF Brandon Miller, CHA vs. DET

SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, SAC at NOP

PF Matas Buzelis, CHI at BKN

SF/PF Saddiq Bey, NOP vs. SAC

PF Andrew Wiggins, MIA vs. UTA

SF Ausar Thompson, DET at CHA

PF/C Danny Wolf, BKN vs. CHI

PF Noah Clowney, BKN vs. CHI

SF/SG Daeqwon Plowden, SAC at NOP (Only if starting)

SF Corey Kispert, ATL at MIN (Preferred if J. Johnson and/or D. Daniels are out)

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $12.1k, FD: $12.6k | vs. CLE

Jokic has looked fully back to form since returning from his late-December knee injury and continues to post video-game numbers. He’s coming off back-to-back triple-doubles, averaging 26 points, 14 rebounds, 13.5 assists, and 73.3 DKFP in those games, and he’s produced an elite 1.82 FPPM over the five contests since returning. Denver remains shorthanded with Aaron Gordon, Peyton Watson, and Spencer Jones already ruled out, and Jamal Murray is questionable, which could further consolidate responsibility around Jokic. Even with his salaries back north of $12k, there’s enough value on the slate to make the spend manageable. Jokic stands out as the premier pay-up option and carries as much raw upside as anyone available tonight.

C Moussa Diabate, CHA | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.5k | vs. DET

Diabate has quietly put together a strong recent run, averaging 10.0 PPG, 11.7 RPG, and 32.5 DKFP over his last six games while logging consistent minutes in the low-30s. That production works out to roughly 1.04 FPPM, driven primarily by elite rebounding rates and steady defensive contributions rather than scoring volume. The volatility is real, especially in this matchup against a Detroit defense that ranks second in DEFRTG and has allowed the third-fewest FPPG to starting centers over the last 20 games. Still, Diabate’s role and activity level give him clear double-double upside at these price points, and if he stays out of foul trouble, he has a realistic path to outperforming salary-based expectations even in a tougher spot.

Other Centers to Consider

C Bam Adebayo, MIA vs. UTA (Boost if Powell is out)

C Jusuf Nurkic, UTA at MIA

C Jarrett Allen, CLE at DEN

C Derik Queen, NOP vs. SAC

C Day’Ron Sharpe, BKN vs. CHI

C Kel’el Ware, MIA vs. UTA

C Maxime Raynaud, SAC at NOP

C Moritz Wagner, ORL vs. MIL

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we have rolled out Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks, UnderDog Fantasy, and other prop apps/sites!

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter/X or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!