Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter/X & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

NBA DFS Today w/ Tyler Wiemann

🏀Tyler’s NBA prop bets can be found on the LineStar YouTube Shorts page!🏀

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Thursday brings us a busy eight-game main slate with plenty to sort through. The board features a mix of potential blowouts and competitive, high-scoring matchups. Three games carry spreads of at least 14.5 points, while three others feature totals of 234.5 or higher paired with spreads under seven points.

The biggest storyline on this slate, however, is the injury report. There are a number of key players carrying questionable tags, and several situations could shift rotations significantly depending on how news breaks throughout the evening. It’s one of those slates where staying close to your lineups and reacting quickly to updates could make a major difference.

Things may get a bit chaotic, but those types of slates often create the best DFS opportunities. Let’s dig in and see which spots stand out. Best of luck!

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Today’s Key Injuries 🚑

^{Note: NBA injury reports can be fickle and often update throughout the day. Be sure to stay up-to-date on all injury news leading up to tip-off as the list below may be a bit outdated by the time you’re reading this.}

^{Additional Note: Players who will miss the remainder of the season will be excluded from the injury report.}

• Wizards: A. Davis – OUT, K. George – OUT

• Magic: F. Wagner – OUT, A. Black – OUT

• 76ers: T. Maxey – OUT, J. Embiid – OUT, K. Oubre Jr. – OUT, A. Bona – OUT, A. Drummond – Questionable

• Pistons: A. Thompson – OUT, C. LeVert – OUT

• Suns: G. Allen – Questionable, D. Brooks – OUT, M. Williams – OUT, H. Highsmith – Questionable

• Pacers: P. Siakam – OUT, I. Zubac – Questionable (would be Pacers debut), A. Nembhard – Questionable, A. Nesmith – Questionable, TJ McConnell – Questionable, Q. Jackson – OUT

• Nets: M. Porter Jr. – OUT, D. Sharpe – OUT, Z. Williams – OUT, N. Traore – OUT

• Hawks: D. Daniels – Questionable, J. Kuminga – Questionable

• Bucks: K. Porter Jr. – Questionable, B. Portis – Questionable, J. Sims – Questionable

• Heat: T. Herro – Questionable, N. Powell – OUT, A. Wiggins – OUT, N. Jovic – OUT

• Mavs: K. Thompson – DOUBTFUL

• Grizzlies: J. Morant – OUT, T. Jerome – DOUBTFUL, S. Aldama – OUT, C. Coward – DOUBTFUL, S. Pippen Jr. – OUT, C. Spencer – Questionable, W. Clayton Jr. – DOUBTFUL, Y. Gibson – DOUBTFUL

• Nuggets: J. Murray – Probable, P. Watson – OUT, A. Gordon – Questionable

• Spurs: V. Wembanyama – Questionable, H. Barnes – Questionable

• Celtics: J. Tatum – OUT, D. White – Questionable, N. Vucevic – OUT

• Thunder: J. Williams – OUT, I. Hartenstein – OUT, B. Carlson – OUT

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

SG/SF Desmond Bane, ORL | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.9k | vs. WAS

Bane continues to shoulder a major offensive role for Orlando with Franz Wagner and Anthony Black sidelined. With both players off the floor this season, he’s averaging 1.23 FPPM, a notable jump from his 1.03 season baseline. He enters this matchup in strong form as well, posting 40+ DKFP in three straight games, including a 35-point, 54.5 DKFP performance against Cleveland last night.

The matchup is highly favorable against a Washington defense that ranks dead last in defensive rating and has allowed the third-most FPPG to starting shooting guards over their last 20 games. This results in the Magic leading the slate with a 124.0 implied point total. The only real concern is potential blowout risk with Orlando favored by 14.5 points, and with the Magic playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, it’d be logical to sit some starters in the fourth quarter if the game is well in hand. But, perhaps after getting embarrassed by Bam Adebayo and the Heat a couple of nights ago, the Wizards can play with a chip on their shoulder and find a way to keep things competitive.

PG Javon Small, MEM | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.7k | vs. DAL

Memphis will be extremely shorthanded tonight and could be down to the league minimum of eight available players. This is nothing new with the Grizzlies, but it should force Small into a heavy workload. Small is in line for another start and likely 30+ minutes. In four starts this season, he has averaged 13.8 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 4.3 APG, and 1.8 STL+BLK while producing 1.06 FPPM and 31.3 DKFP per game.

The environment also works in his favor. This game carries the second-highest total on the slate at 238.5 points with a narrow 4.5-point spread, and Dallas has allowed the third-most FPPG to starting point guards over their last 20 games. At sub-$6k salaries on both sites, Small profiles as one of the stronger value guards on the slate.

PG Ben Saraf, BKN | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.8k | at ATL

Brooklyn will be thin in the backcourt tonight with Egor Demin out for the season and Nolan Traore sidelined, which should push Saraf into a larger role. The Nets’ best player, Michael Porter Jr., is also out along with SG/SF Ziaire Williams and backup center Day’Ron Sharpe. As a result, Saraf is expected to start and take on primary ball-handling duties – he has also put up a solid 22.5% usage rate with those players off the floor this season. While Saraf has only averaged 0.72 FPPM on the season, the increased opportunity should help offset that modest efficiency.

The matchup also provides a strong pace environment. Brooklyn ranks 27th in pace, but they’ll get a major bump facing Atlanta, which sits second in pace this season. At sub-$4k salaries on both sites, Saraf offers inexpensive access to starter-level minutes and primary ball-handling opportunities.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Cade Cunningham, DET vs. PHI

PG/SG Devin Booker, PHX at IND

PG/SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker, ATL vs. BKN (Boost if Daniels is out)

SG Stephon Castle, SAS vs. DEN (Boost if Wemby is out)

PG De’Aaron Fox, SAS vs. DEN (Boost if Wemby is out)

PG Collin Gillespie, PHX at IND

PG/SG Cameron Payne, PHI at DET

SG/SF Cam Spencer, MEM vs. DAL (Questionable)

PG Ajay Mitchell, OKC vs. BOS

PG/SG Dylan Harper, SAS vs. DEN

PG/SG Marcus Sasser, DET vs. PHI

PG/SG Kam Jones, IND vs. PHX (Pending IND injury news – Preferred if he starts)

PG Kasparas Jakucionis, MIA vs. MIL (Preferred if Herro is out + he starts)

PG Daniss Jenkins, DET vs. PHI

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/PG Cooper Flagg, DAL | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.8k | at MEM

Flagg continues to ramp back up after missing time with a mid-foot sprain and logged 32 minutes Tuesday, his highest workload since returning from the eight-game absence. He finished that game with 14 points, 12 rebounds, five assists, and 37.5 DKFP, and he has topped 42 DKFP in two of his four games since rejoining the lineup. With neither team playing for postseason positioning, Flagg should continue seeing a significant role as he tries to regain momentum in the Rookie of the Year race. His +135 odds to win the award now trail Kon Knueppel (-170) – Flagg has 17 games left this season to retake the lead.

Aside from the ROTY narrative, this matchup also provides one of the stronger environments on the slate with a high total (238.5) and competitive spread (DAL -4.5), and the Mavs rank second on the slate with a 122.0 implied team total. Memphis has struggled defensively throughout the season, and they’re rolling out a bunch of backups tonight, which gives Flagg a good opportunity to continue producing across multiple categories.

PF/C Danny Wolf, BKN | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.3k | at ATL

Wolf should step back into the starting lineup tonight with Michael Porter Jr. sidelined, and Brooklyn’s thin roster should allow him to take on an expanded role. The rookie has been productive recently, averaging 1.17 FPPM across his last six games while topping 30 DKFP in each of his last two outings. He also flashed a much higher ceiling earlier this month with a 46.75 DKFP performance against Cleveland.

With several key Nets unavailable, Wolf has a good chance to push toward 30 minutes and remain heavily involved offensively. Even if the game leans toward a blowout (BKN +15.5), his combination of minutes and per-minute production gives him a strong path to value at these current salaries.

SF Rayan Rupert, MEM | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4k | vs. DAL

Jumping back on the shorthanded Grizzlies roster, Rayan Rupert should take on a sizable role tonight. Unless several of the Grizzlies players currently listed as doubtful are upgraded, Rupert could be forced into significant floor time and is currently projected for 32.0 minutes tonight. He has averaged a solid 0.93 FPPM over his last five games off the bench while contributing across multiple categories.

The recent numbers have been encouraging, highlighted by a 20-point, eight-rebound performance that resulted in 38.5 DKFP against Brooklyn earlier this week. The current matchup helps as well, with Dallas ranking 25th in DvP versus bench small forwards over their last 20 games. At these low-$4k price tags, Rupert offers strong value potential if his minutes land in the expected range.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF Jalen Johnson, ATL vs. BKN

PF Paolo Banchero, ORL vs. WAS

SF/SG Jaylen Brown, BOS at OKC

SF/SG Jalen Green, PHX at IND (Boost if Allen is out)

SF Jaime Jaquez Jr., MIA vs. MIL

PF Gregory “GG” Jackson, MEM vs. DAL

SF/PF Will Riley, WAS at ORL

PF/C Taylor Hendricks, MEM vs. DAL

PF/C Olivier-Maxence Prosper, MEM vs. DAL

SF/PF Tristan da Silva, ORL vs. WAS

SF Jaylen Wells, MEM vs. DAL

SF/SG Jahmai Mashack, MEM vs. DAL

PF Jalen Wilson, BKN at ATL

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $12.5k, FD: $12.7k | at SAS

Jokic headlines the slate once again and draws a potential showdown with Victor Wembanyama, who is currently listed as questionable due to ankle soreness. There is plenty of value available tonight, which makes paying up for Jokic an appealing way to use the extra salary flexibility. He remains the top projection play on the slate in both LineStar and consensus projections and carries elite upside regardless of whether Wembanyama suits up, though the matchup would clearly improve for Jokic if the Spurs’ dominant rim protector is forced to sit.

Jokic continues to produce at an absurd level, recording three triple-doubles in his last four games and topping 64 DKFP in six of his past nine. He’s also coming off a 64.5 DKFP performance against Houston last night while logging just 30 minutes in a blowout, which helps ease concerns about the back-to-back factor. If Wemby suits up, this may not be the best spot for a Jokic ceiling game, but he still provides the most secure floor available and can pop for a monster performance against anyone.

C Marvin Bagley III, DAL | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5k | at MEM

Bagley has carved out a steady role for Dallas since arriving at the trade deadline and continues to produce efficiently in limited minutes. He has scored at least 23 DKFP in five of his last six games and is averaging an impressive 1.27 FPPM over that span. His playing time typically lands in the 20–24-minute range, which has been enough for him to consistently return value.

The matchup also sets up well against a Memphis team that ranks dead last in DvP versus backup centers over their last 20 games. Bagley has already produced at least 23.75 DKFP in both previous meetings with the Grizzlies this season. He’s a more viable option at his $4,200 tag on DraftKings but has flashed enough per-minute upside to remain on the radar at $5,000 on FanDuel as well.

Other Centers to Consider

C Victor Wembanyama, SAS vs. DEN (Questionable)

C Jalen Duren, DET vs. PHI

C Wendell Carter Jr., ORL vs. WAS

C Daniel Gafford, DAL at MEM

C Andre Drummond, PHI at DET (Questionable)

C Luke Kornet, SAS vs. DEN (Only if Wemby is out)

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we have rolled out Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks, UnderDog Fantasy, and other prop apps/sites!

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter/X or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!