Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter/X & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

NBA DFS Today w/ Tyler Wiemann

🏀Tyler’s NBA prop bets can be found on the LineStar YouTube Shorts page!🏀

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

A solid six-game slate is on tap this evening. It’s not the most appealing slate on paper, but there are still a few intriguing matchups mixed in alongside a couple of potential blowouts.

The injury report is going to play a significant role today, with several high-impact players already ruled out or listed as doubtful. As for news we’re still waiting on, most of it centers on the Pacers and Bucks, the only two teams with multiple questionable tags. Indiana, in particular, has a messy injury report with essentially half of its rotation currently pinned with Q-tags. It’s an annoying situation, but pretty par for the course for the Pacers at this point.

Outside of that, this slate appears relatively straightforward from a roster construction standpoint, with a clear mix of strong pay-up options, mid-range targets, and value plays to build around. Let’s dig in. Best of luck!

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Today’s Key Injuries 🚑

^{Note: NBA injury reports can be fickle and often update throughout the day. Be sure to stay up-to-date on all injury news leading up to tip-off as the list below may be a bit outdated by the time you’re reading this.}

^{Additional Note: Players who will miss the remainder of the season will be excluded from the injury report.}

• Pistons: I. Stewart – OUT

• Wizards: T. Young – OUT, A. Sarr – OUT, K. George – OUT, B. Coulibaly – OUT, L. Black – OUT

• Heat: B. Adebayo – DOUBTFUL, A. Wiggins – OUT

• Hornets: T. Salaun – OUT

• Thunder: Jal. Williams – OUT

• Magic: F. Wagner – OUT, A. Black – OUT, J. Isaac – OUT

• Pacers: P. Siakam – DOUBTFUL, A. Nembhard – Questionable, I. Zubac – Questionable, A. Nesmith – Questionable, M. Potter – Questionable, TJ McConnell – Questionable, O. Toppin – Questionable, Q. Jackson – Questionable, B. Sheppard – Questionable

• Knicks: J. Brunson – DOUBTFUL, M. Robinson – Questionable

• Cavs: J. Allen – OUT, J. Tyson – Probable, S. Merrill – Questionable, C. Porter Jr. – OUT, T. Proctor – OUT

• Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo – Questionable, R. Rollins – Questionable, M. Turner – Questionable, O. Dieng – Questionable

• Suns: D. Brooks – OUT, G. Allen – DOUBTFUL, M. Williams – OUT, H. Highsmith – Questionable

• Timberwolves: A. Edwards – OUT

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

SG/SF Jalen Green, PHX | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.1k | at MIN

With several strong pay-up guards on this slate but no clear must-spend option, we’ll begin with Jalen Green, who stands out as an appealing mid-range target. Green cooled off a bit last night against Boston (31.25 DKFP), but he had been on a tear prior to that, topping 50 DKFP in back-to-back outings. Tonight’s matchup sets up as a bounce-back spot. He goes from facing a top-five Celtics defense yesterday to a Timberwolves team that has struggled recently, ranking 29th in DEFRTG over its last five games and playing without Anthony Edwards (knee/out). Green has also taken on a massive offensive role of late, posting a 36.3% usage rate (third-highest on the slate) while averaging 1.25 FPPM across his last five starts.

This game isn’t ideal from a pace or total standpoint (221.5 O/U, slowest combined pace on the slate), but the 3.5-point spread is the slimmest of the evening and should lead to starters playing full workloads. There are also postseason implications in play, with Minnesota (current 6th seed) holding the final guaranteed playoff spot in the West and Phoenix (current 7th seed) sitting just two games behind them, currently in the first play-in slot. With Grayson Allen (knee) also doubtful, Green has a clear path to continued high usage and strong upside at these price points.

SG/SF Ayo Dosunmu, MIN | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.7k | vs. PHX

Jumping over to the other side of this matchup, Dosunmu stands out as a strong value option with Anthony Edwards (knee) sidelined. Whether he officially draws the start or not, Dosunmu is expected to take on an expanded role and is currently projected for around 32 minutes.

The production with Minnesota hasn’t jumped off the page yet, as he’s averaged 0.71 FPPM with a 16.7% usage rate with Edwards off the floor, but that comes in a limited sample of just over 100 minutes. We’ve seen a much higher ceiling out of Dosunmu earlier this season in Chicago when given starting opportunities and an elevated workload. Dosunmu has averaged 1.04 FPPM across his last five games as a starter, and this matchup sets up well for him. Phoenix has allowed the sixth-most FPPG to starting shooting guards over its last 20 games, giving Dosunmu a clear path to returning value at a $4,700 price tag on both sites.

PG Jose Alvarado, NYK | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. IND

Jalen Brunson (ankle) has been downgraded to doubtful, and with Miles McBride (core) still sidelined, Alvarado has a real chance to make his first start in a Knicks uniform. That puts him firmly in play as one of the top punt options on the slate. Since joining New York, Alvarado has produced at a strong per-minute rate, averaging 1.03 FPPM with Brunson off the floor, and he should be in line for mid-20s minutes with a path toward 30 if this game stays competitive.

The matchup only adds to the appeal. Indiana has struggled defensively, ranking dead last in DvP versus starting point guards over its last 20 games. It’s difficult to overlook a likely starting point guard under $4,000 in this type of spot, even if he ends up carrying significant ownership.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Cade Cunningham, DET at WAS

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC at ORL

PG/SG Devin Booker, PHX at MIN

PG/SG Tyler Herro, MIA at CHA

PG Kevin Porter Jr., MIL vs. CLE (Boost if Giannis and/or Rollins are out)

SG Kon Knueppel, CHA vs. MIA

SG/SF Josh Hart, NYK vs. IND

SG/SF Max Strus, CLE at MIL

PG Ajay Mitchell, OKC at ORL

SG Landry Shamet, NYK vs. IND

PG/SG Kam Jones, IND at NYK (Pending IND injury news)

PG/SG Bones Hyland, MIN vs. PHX

PG Daniss Jenkins, DET at WAS

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF Julius Randle, MIN | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.4k | vs. PHX

Randle stands out as a go-to option with Anthony Edwards sidelined, as he steps into the role of Minnesota’s primary offensive engine. With Edwards off the floor this season, Randle easily leads the team with a 28.9% usage rate – a notable jump from his 23.7% mark when Edwards is on the court – and his FPPM average goes from 1.05 to 1.23 in those same splits. Randle has had some subpar performances in recent weeks, which has caused his DFS prices to delve well into the $7k range. However, he is coming off a 32-point, 52.75 DKFP performance against OKC on Sunday (a game that Edwards played full minutes in), so he does have some momentum heading into tonight.

This isn’t a perfect matchup on paper, as Phoenix has defended opposing power forwards well (5th in DvP), but the context works in his favor. The Suns are on the second leg of a back-to-back after traveling from Boston and as mentioned, this game carries meaningful Western Conference seeding implications, which should keep Randle heavily involved. Edwards is expected to miss the next 1-to-2 weeks, so Randle will need to step up in that stretch to keep Minnesota in line for a guaranteed playoff seed.

PF/C Naz Reid, MIN | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.3k | vs. PHX

Sticking with the Ant-less Timberwolves, Reid is another option to keep in mind tonight. With Anthony Edwards off the floor this season, Reid has taken on a larger offensive role, ranking second on the team (behind Randle) with a 22.8% usage rate. He has also averaged 33.2 DKFP per game across the 10 contests that Edwards has missed this season.

While he’s cooled off a bit over the past month or so, the role and opportunity remain strong in this setup. Reid continues to operate as one of the league’s top bench scorers and is the current frontrunner for Sixth Man of the Year. With Edwards sidelined, Reid should step back into a more established and relied-upon role. Similar production to what he’s shown in those previous games without Edwards would result in some nice value out of this mid-$5k salary range on both sites.

PF Justin Champagnie, WAS | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5k | vs. DET

Putting any amount of faith into a Wizards player is a tall ask given their tanking approach this season, but some combination of players will still have to fill the 48 minutes on the floor tonight. Washington will be shorthanded on the second leg of a back-to-back, with Trae Young, Alex Sarr, Keyonte George, Bilal Coulibaly, and Leaky Black all ruled out, which should open the door for additional opportunities.

Champagnie has been in and out of the rotation over the past couple of weeks, but this sets up as a spot where he could draw a start and handle a meaningful workload. He hasn’t started since February 20, and even if he does tonight, the minutes carry some volatility. Still, Champagnie has been one of the more productive options on this roster when given the chance (which may explain the inconsistent playing time lately), averaging 1.19 FPPM across his last five starts. Washington enters as a near 20-point underdog, but if Champagnie approaches 30 minutes, he has a clear path to returning value even in a difficult matchup and playing for an organization that wants to lose.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF Paolo Banchero, ORL vs. OKC

SF Brandon Miller, CHA vs. MIA

SF Jarace Walker, IND at NYK (Potential boost pending IND injury news)

PF OG Anunoby, NYK vs. IND

SF/SG Norman Powell, MIA at CHA

SF Jaime Jaquez Jr., MIA at CHA

PF/C Bobby Portis, MIL vs. CLE (Boost if Giannis is out)

SF/PF Will Riley, WAS vs. DET

SF/PF Kobe Brown, IND at NYK (Pending IND injury news)

SF Alex Caruso, OKC at ORL

PF Ronald Holland II, DET at WAS

SF Jalen Slawson, IND at NYK (Pending IND injury news)

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK | DK: $9k, FD: $8.9k | vs. IND

With Jalen Brunson (ankle/doubtful) presumably sidelined, Towns becomes one of the top spend-up options on the slate. He has thrived in this role, leading the team with a 30.5% usage rate with Brunson off the floor, and he has averaged 53.5 DKFP per game in contests that Brunson has missed entirely. That expanded role gives him a clear path to handling the offense as New York’s primary scoring option.

Towns also enters in strong form, averaging 1.50 FPPM across his last five starts, and that production has come with a lower 25.3% usage rate. If that efficiency holds and combines with the likely usage increase tonight, he brings legitimate 60+ DKFP upside to the table. The spot is somewhat dependent on Indiana keeping things competitive as 14.5-point underdogs, but if they do, Towns lands in an excellent matchup against a Pacers team that ranks 25th in DvP versus starting centers over their last 20 games.

C Kel'el Ware, MIA | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.5k | at CHA

Ware shapes up as one of the top center options on the slate with Bam Adebayo (calf) doubtful and Andrew Wiggins (toe) already ruled out. In this setup, Ware is expected to remain in the starting lineup and handle the bulk of the minutes at center. With both Adebayo and Wiggins off the floor this season, he has posted a solid 21.0% usage rate while leading the team with an excellent 1.33 FPPM.

The recent production supports the larger role as well, with Ware averaging 1.21 FPPM over his last 14 games. He projects for around 30 minutes in this spot and benefits from one of the best game environments on the slate, as this matchup carries the highest total (234.5) and one of the closest spreads (MIA +5.5). If the minutes land as expected, Ware has a clear path to strong value, even in a matchup versus a Hornets team that has been tough versus opposing centers (6th in DvP).

Other Centers to Consider

C Jalen Duren, DET at WAS

C Rudy Gobert, MIN vs. PHX

C Wendell Carter Jr., ORL vs. OKC

C Mitchell Robinson, NYK vs. IND (Questionable)

C Jericho Sims, MIL vs. CLE (Only if Turner sits)

C Anthony Gil, WAS vs. DET

C Ryan Kalkbrenner, CHA vs. MIA

C Julian Reese, WAS vs. DET (Preferred if starting)

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we have rolled out Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks, UnderDog Fantasy, and other prop apps/sites!

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter/X or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!