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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Picks 3/20 | Managing the Madness on Tonight's Five-Game Slate!

Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Picks 3/20 | Managing the Madness on Tonight's Five-Game Slate!

Thursday, March 20th - DFS Plays & Pick 'Ems for Today's NBA Action!

Ryan Humphries
March 20, 2025

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter/X & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler & Shannon

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

While everyone procrastinates at work to see who will bust their March Madness bracket, we will still have a handful of NBA games to tend to! Five games are lined up this evening. I can’t say this is the best-looking small slate that I've seen, but there are a couple of decent matchups on the board, and the injury report isn’t too hectic. Some impactful players have already been ruled out (edit: even more so after the latest Lakers’ updates), but there are only three or four key guys with “questionable” designations.

Quick Note: MLB Opening Day is officially one week away! If it’s a sport you’d like to try out for DFS/prop betting, or perhaps you’d just like to brush up on the basics, there is an in-depth LineStar MLB strategy guide you can check out!

Today’s Key Injuries

Knicks: J. Brunson - OUT, M. McBride - Questionable, M. Robinson - OUT
Hornets: L. Ball - Probable, M. Bridges - Probable, J. Okogie - OUT, M. Garrett - Questionable, M. Diabate - Questionable
Nets: C. Johnson - OUT
Pacers: T. Haliburton - Questionable
Raptors: RJ Barrett - OUT, B. Ingram - OUT, G. Dick - OUT, J. Walter - OUT
Warriors: G. Payton II - Questionable
Bulls: L. Ball - OUT
Kings: D. Sabonis - OUT, Z. LaVine - Questionable, J. LaRavia - Questionable
Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable, D. Lillard - Probable, G. Trent Jr. - Probable
Lakers: L. Doncic - OUT, L. James - OUT, A. Reaves - OUT, R. Hachimura - OUT, Dorian Finney-Smith - Doubtful, Jarred Vanderbilt - Doubtful

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG/SG Austin Reaves, LAL | DK: $9.1k, FD: $8.7k | vs. MIL

Austin Reaves will not be sneaking by anyone today. LeBron remains out for a seventh consecutive game due to a groin injury and now Luka Doncic will be out on the second leg of the back-to-back while resting a right ankle sprain. Reaves has already been much more involved since LeBron went down, averaging 29.0 PPG, 7.2 APG, 6.4 RPG, 2.4 STL+BLK/gm, 28.6% USG%, 1.44 FPPM, and 53.6 DKFP/52.3 FDFP per game over the Lakers’ last five games. When Luka and LeBron were both out against the Nuggets last Friday, Reaves erupted for 76.0 DKFP/74.1 FDFP on a team-leading 35.4% USG%. In over 200 minutes played with LeBron, Doncic, and Anthony Davis (traded) off the floor this season, Reaves has massively increased his usage rate by +19.5 percentage points and has averaged +22.0 more FP per 32 minutes. It’s not the best matchup versus the Bucks, but Reaves is going to shoulder a massive amount of offensive responsibility tonight and his peripherals have been outstanding as of late, so he’s going to be tough to ignore on this slate.

Update: Austin Reaves has now been ruled out. Oh well!

PG D’Angelo Russell, BKN | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.4k | at IND

DLo is not a player I tend to put a lot of faith in but the Nets will be without two of their top offensive assets -- Cam Thomas is done for the season while Cameron Johnson isn’t hurt, but will be sitting out for rest purposes tonight (just 2025 NBA things). That should lead to a notable usage bump for Russell, who also averages +5.7 more FP per 32 minutes with Thomas and Johnson off the floor. Russell is coming off of a nice showing against a stout Celtics team on Tuesday where he supplied an 18/5/7 stat line and 37.75 DKFP/35.50 FDFP. The Nets are still sizable 8.5-point underdogs tonight but the matchup is much better as the Pacers, who are on the second leg of a back-to-back, have allowed the 4th most FPPG to starting PGs L20Games. The Nets also receive the second-largest pace-up boost on the slate. As long as he gets close to 30 minutes tonight, Russell makes a lot of sense as a mid-range target.

PG/SG Cameron Payne, NYK | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.8k | at CHA

We’ll go deep in the dumpster to dive for guard value here with Cameron Payne. This play will make much more sense should Miles McBride (groin/questionable) eventually be ruled out. The Knicks are on the second leg of a back-to-back and they’ve had some lengthy overnight travel after playing in San Antonio last night, so it’s possible that McBride could be on the wrong side of that questionable tag. If McBride is active, Payne still makes some sense as a pure punt play. Jalen Brunson remains out with an ankle injury so there are some additional point guard minutes to go around. Payne has averaged a solid 0.95 FPPM over his last 20 games and put up 20.5 DKFP/20.0 FDFP in just 17 minutes last night. Obviously, we’ll prefer Payne if McBride is out, as Payne would likely replace him in the starting lineup. But if you need a near-minimum punt play, there aren’t many scenarios where he’ll burn you at these price points. The Hornets have also allowed the most FPPG to reserve players over their L20Games and rank 29th versus reserve PGs in that same span.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Steph Curry, GSW vs. TOR

PG Damian Lillard, MIL at LAL

PG/SF Josh Giddey, CHI at SAC

PG/SG Malik Monk, SAC vs. CHI

SG/SF Miles Bridges, NYK at CHA

PG/SG Gabe Vincent, LAL vs. MIL

PG Kevin Porter Jr., MIL at LAL

PG Shake Milton, LAL vs. MIL

SG/SF Gary Trent Jr., MIL at LAL

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $11.7k, FD: $11.7k | at LAL

There is a decent amount of value on this slate but not many superstar-caliber players worth spending up on. That’s going to make Giannis an appealing option, more so than usual, due to the fact that he brings a higher floor to lineups than any other player on the slate. It’s been quite a while since we’ve seen Giannis pop for a ceiling-type game, but you can’t argue against his consistent floor. He has scored below 51.25 DKFP/49.9 FDFP just once within his last 13 games. Giannis also played 39 minutes in the Bucks’ last game on Tuesday, the most minutes he’s played dating all the way back to November 13th! The Bucks will stroll into L.A. as six-point road favorites over the Luka/LeBron-less Lakers, and it’s a strong individual matchup as the Lakers have allowed the 5th most FPPG to starting power forwards L20Games. L.A. just doesn’t have anyone who can match up well one-on-one with Giannis and he won’t necessarily have to go for 70+ FP to appear in the final optimal lineup on this small slate.

Update: Blowout concerns increase now that Reaves and other Lakers have been ruled out (or downgraded to “doubtful”). I still believe Giannis is worthy of the spend-up even if he only plays around 30 minutes. Damian Lillard has also just been downgraded from “probable” to “questionable”. Sizable usage bump for Giannis if Lillard sits.

SF/SG Dalton Knecht, LAL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. MIL

There was a sizable Lakers injury update while I was in the middle of writing this section. On top of LeBron and Luka already being out for tonight’s back-to-back, the Lakers just ruled out Austin Reaves along with Rui Hachimura, Dorian Finney-Smith (doubtful), and Jarred Vanderbilt (doubtful). Needless to say, there are going to be plenty of minutes to go around for the remaining Lakers tonight. I would assume that Dalton Knecht is now a strong candidate to start and take on a sizable chunk of the usage. With all of the players listed as out/doubtful, along with the former Lakers who were traded, off the floor this season, Knecht has increased his usage by +17.54% and has averaged +16.4 more FP per 32 minutes. His most recent start came last Friday against the Nuggets where he dropped 32 points on 13-of-27 shooting, and ended with 38.5 DKFP/35.9 FDFP in 37 minutes. Knecht is fairly scoring-dependent but the Lakers are going to ask plenty of that out of him tonight.

SF/PF Noah Clowney, BKN | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.9k | at IND

Noah Clowney would enter the value play conversation if he ends up starting for the resting Cameron Johnson, which I’m currently guessing will happen (but not guaranteed). Clowney’s DFS prices have steadily decreased while he has missed most of the action over the last seven weeks while dealing with an ankle injury. But Clowney does have 18 starts under his belt this season and was often priced in the low-$5k range in those games as a starter, so we could be getting a nice discount on him today… assuming he starts. He is certainly not the most consistent player, but he has shown a huge DFS ceiling when given the minutes at times throughout the year. This is a 7 o’clock ET tipoff so we will know whether or not Clowney is in the starting lineup before lock.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF Miles Bridges, CHA vs. NYK

PF Pascal Siakam, IND vs. BKN

SF DeMar DeRozan, SAC vs. CHI

SF/PF Josh Hart, NYK at CHA

PF/C Draymond Green, GSW vs. TOR

SF/SF Ziaire Williams, BKN at IND

SF/SG Jordan Goodwin, LAL vs. MIL

PF/C Trey Lyles, SAC vs. CHI

PF/C Markieff Morris, LAL vs. MIL (Preferred if starting)

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.7k | at CHA

Center is fairly weak on this slate so KAT is going to demand plenty of consideration today. Towns was a mainstay in these NBA articles for much of the season but he has faded a bit over the last month. I still believe he is due for a monster takeover game during this time while star PG Jalen Brunson remains out. Towns has led the team with a +5% USG% increase with Brunson off the floor this season and his usage has bumped up to 30.4% over the last five games. This is also a favorable matchup versus the Hornets, who have allowed the 8th most FPPG to centers L20Games.

C Jaxson Hayes, LAL | DK: $5k, FD: $5.2k | vs. MIL

As discussed, the Lakers are going to be thin all over the court tonight so this seems like a spot where Jaxson Hayes could push for a season-high in minutes. He’s one of the few healthy/active Lakers who could realistically match up with Giannis around the rim, and he should also handle a fair amount of offensive usage in this game. Hayes heads in averaging 1.01 FPPM over his last five games and that per-minute average should increase given all of the players that the Lakers won’t have available this evening. He has been a bit foul-prone lately but if he can avoid the whistles and work his way to 30+ minutes, Hayes seems like a clear 6x (or better) upside candidate at these price points.

Other Centers to Consider

C Jonas Valanciunas, SAC vs. CHI

C Nikola Vucevic, CHI at SAC

C Nic Claxton, BKN at IND

C Quinten Post, GSW vs. TOR

C Jusuf Nurkic, CHA vs. NYK (Preferred if Diabate is out)

C Christian Koloko, LAL vs. MIL

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Dalton Knecht MORE than 21.5 Points

Jakob Poeltl MORE than 11 Points

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Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

🫡 Check out our revamped BetFully Cashback App (iOS only sorry) and get up to $200 cashback for trying new Sportsbook, DFS, horse-racing apps and playing games! ✔️✔️✔️

NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler & Shannon

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

It’s another busy day in the NBA. Eleven games reside on the Wednesday schedule -- DraftKings will exclude the two late games (PHX/OKC and ORL/SAC) from their main slate while FanDuel will feature the full menu. Trades continue to go down with the biggest move today involving the Bucks and Wizards trading Khris Middleton for Kyle Kuzma. The injury report is also a complete fiasco so keep those eyes and ears peeled for all the news that drops throughout the afternoon and evening! Let’s jump into the chaos! Best of luck!

NBA Trade Tracker

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/transactions/trade/

Today’s Key Injuries

Spurs: C. Paul - Questionable, C. Bassey - OUT
Hawks: C. Capela - OUT, B. Bogdanovic - OUT
Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable, D. Lillard - Probable, B. Portis - Probable, K. Middleton - OUT (traded), AJ Johnson - OUT (traded)
Hornets: L. Ball - OUT, J. Okogie - OUT, V. Micic - Questionable, T. Mann - OUT, C. Martin - OUT
Cavs: D. Mitchell - Questionable, D. Wade - OUT, I. Okoro - OUT
Pistons: None
Wizards: K. Kuzma - OUT (traded), A. Sarr - OUT, P. Baldwin Jr. - OUT (traded)
Nets: C. Thomas - OUT, N. Clowney - OUT, D. Sharpe - Questionable, T. Watford - OUT
Grizzlies: D. Bane - OUT, B. Clarke - Questionable, M. Smart - Questionable, J. Konchar - Questionable, V. Williams Jr. - Questionable
Raptors: RJ Barrett - OUT, J. Poeltl - OUT, I. Quickley - OUT, C. Boucher - Questionable
Heat: J. Butler - OUT, D. Robinson - Probable, H. Highsmith - Probable
76ers: J. Embiid - OUT, P. George - Doubtful, A. Drummond - Doubtful, Q. Grimes - Questionable (trade pending), E. Gordon - Questionable, K. Lowry - Questionable
Bulls: L. Ball - OUT, T. Jones - OUT, Z. Collins - OUT, T. Horton-Tucker - OUT, K. Huerter - OUT, D. Terry - Questionable
Timberwolves: J. Randle - OUT, D. DiVincenzo - OUT
Warriors: A. Wiggins - Probable, J. Kuminga - OUT, D. Green - Probable, M. Moody - OUT
Jazz: L. Markkanen - Questionable, C. Sexton - OUT, C. Williams - OUT
Pelicans: B. Ingram - OUT, J. Alvarado - Questionable, D. Theis - OUT (traded)
Nuggets: R. Westbrook - OUT, A. Gordon - Questionable, P. Watson - OUT

Late Game Injury Report (FanDuel Main Slate Only)

Suns: K. Durant - OUT
Thunder: C. Holmgren - OUT, C. Wallace - OUT
Magic: J. Suggs - Doubtful
Kings: None

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG/SG Jamal Murray, DEN | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.3k | vs. NOP

The Nuggets lead the slate with a lofty 124.8 implied team total so the Denver studs will make plenty of sense today. Jamal Murray has been playing very well of late, averaging 1.21 FPPM L5Games and scoring at least 42.0 DKFP/44.0 FDFP in four of those last five games. He has secured 40+ FP in all three previous meetings with the Pelicans this season and, given their 29th-ranked DEFRTG and 29th-ranked DvP versus starting PGs L20Games, Murray’s expectations should be high once again this evening.

PG/SG Isaiah Collier, UTA | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.2k | vs. GSW

Perhaps not the most exciting DFS play, but Isaiah Collier has provided some quality value in recent weeks, routinely returning 6x value at these low-$5k price points. Collier’s minutes and role should be more secure with Collin Sexton (ankle/out) expected to be sidelined for at least a week -- with Sexton only playing three minutes in Monday’s game, Collier went on to supply a point/assist double-double in 32 minutes versus the Pacers. Collier has also shot it significantly better at home this season with a 48.5% FG% versus a 32.6% FG% on the road. This may not be the best match-up but Collier did post a quality 12/6/9 stat line and 31.0 DKFP/28.7 FDFP against the Warriors just last Tuesday, and that was with Sexton active and putting up 30 points of his own.

SG Gradey Dick, TOR | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.6k | vs. MEM

The Raptors will be shorthanded today with RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl, and Immanuel Quickley ruled out. Gradey Dick has seen a notable +4.5% USG% boost with those three players off the court this season along with a +5.8 FP per 32 minutes increase. Both teams in this game rank top 10 in pace, with Memphis ranking 1st in the NBA, so there will be plenty of possessions to go around. If the Raptors (+10.5) hope to pull off the upset, Gradey Dick will likely need to be heavily involved in the scoring.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Cade Cunningham, DET vs. CLE

PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI vs. MIA

PG/SG Anthony Edwards, MIN vs. CHI

SG/SF Trey Murphy III, NOP at DEN

PG Darius Garland, CLE at DET (Boost if D. Mitchell is out)

PG/SG Dyson Daniels, ATL vs. SAS

PG Josh Giddey, CHI at MIN

PG Jordan Poole, WAS at BKN

PG Keyonte George, UTA vs. GSW

SG/SF Bilal Coulibaly, WAS at BKN

SG/SF Christian Braun, DEN vs. NOP

PG/SG Keon Johnson, BKN vs. WAS

PG Ty Jerome, CLE at DET (Preferred if D. Mitchell is out)

PG Jamal Shead, TOR vs. MEM

FanDuel Main Slate Only

SG/SF Devin Booker, PHX at OKC

PG/SG Malik Monk, SAC vs. ORL

PG/SG Cole Anthony, ORL at SAC

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.7k | at TOR

Over the last two games, JJJ has led the Grizzlies in scoring, with 31 and 37 points, as well as usage rate, with 31.8% USG% and 43.8% USG%. One of those games was without Ja Morant, but the other was without Desmond Bane, who will be out once again tonight. For a big man, Jackson is not a very prolific rebounder, but he can rack up multiple blocks and steals on any given night and he’ll draw a strong individual match-up. The Raptors have ranked 27th versus starting PFs L20Games and when these teams met in late December, Jackson dropped 50.25 DKFP/49.2 FDFP. I believe we can get a similar result out of him this evening.

SF/PF Michael Porter Jr., DEN | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.6k | vs. NOP

MPJ has mostly been a solid floor play throughout this season but he erupted for 36 points and 52.75 DKFP/49.4 FDFP against this same Pelicans team on Monday. I believe the Peyton Watson (knee/out) injury is a bit underrated in regards to Porter’s role. Watson has been a key piece off of the Nuggets’ bench this season and, with Watson sidelined the last two games, Porter has played 40+ minutes in each contest. We can’t expect a repeat performance from Monday but I’d say 40+ FP is well within Porter’s wheelhouse tonight.

PF Matas Buzelis, CHI | DK: $4k, FD: $4.2k | at MIN

The Bulls took Buzelis with the 11th overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. With Zach LaVine shipped off to the Kings and none of the recently acquired players (Kevin Huerter, Zach Collins, Tre Jones) ready to make their Chicago debut, Buzelis will have a chance to continue playing in an expanded role. He logged a season-high 31 minutes off of the bench in last night’s game versus the Heat and went on to score 24 points and 32.0 DKFP/31.4 FDFP. Buzelis has averaged a respectable 0.92 FPPM L5Games and, should he flirt with 30 minutes again tonight, he’ll be a great bet to return some nice value.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL at CHA

SF/PG Scottie Barnes, TOR vs. MEM

PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE at DET (Boost if D. Mitchell is out)

PF/C John Collins, UTA vs. GSW

PF/C Naz Reid, MIN vs. CHI

PF/C Guerschon Yabusele, PHI vs. MIA

SF/PF Zaccharie Risacher, ATL vs. SAS

SF/PF Justin Edwards, PHI vs. MIA

SF/SG Corey Kispert, WAS at BKN

SF/PF Gregory Jackson, MEM at TOR

SF/PF Justin Champagnie WAS at BKN (Preferred if starting)

SF/SG Ja’Kobe Walter, TOR vs. MEM (Preferred if starting)

FanDuel Main Slate Only

PF/SF Paolo Banchero, ORL at SAC

SF/SG Grayson Allen, PHX at OKC

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Rudy Gobert, MIN | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.9k | vs. CHI

Gobert continues to play some of his best basketball of the season following a 19/13/3 (plus two blocks and a steal) stat line against the Kings on Monday. He has now scored at least 37.0 DKFP/36.5 FDFP in five of his last six games, including three games of at least 47.25 DKFP/48.1 FDFP in that span. Gobert has averaged +4.6 FP per 32 minutes with Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo (both out) off the floor this season and, as always, the Bulls represent an elite match-up for opposing centers, ranking 29th against the position this season. Gobert’s DFS salaries are on the up and up but there’s still some real upside at his sub-$7k price points.

C Kelly Olynyk, TOR | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4k | vs. MEM

There is some pretty clear value here with Kelly Olynyk expected to start in place of the injured Jakob Poeltl. In his only other start this season, which also came against the Grizzlies in late December, Olynyk averaged 1.20 FPPM and scored 27.75 DKFP/25.50 FDFP. Olynyk only played 23 minutes in that game but I believe he could get closer to 26-28 minutes as the starter tonight. Either way, he won’t have to do much to pay off these bottom-of-the-barrel salaries tonight.

Other Centers to Consider

C Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. NOP

C Victor Wembanyama, SAS at ATL

C Mark Williams, CHA vs. MIL

C Jalen Duren, DET vs. CLE

C Kel’el Ware, MIA at PHI

C Zach Edey, MEM at TOR

C Kevon Looney, GSW at UTA

C Quinten Post, GSW at UTA

FanDuel Main Slate Only

C/PF Domantas Sabonis, SAC vs. ORL

C Isaiah Hartenstein, OKC vs. PHX

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

No picks from me today but, as always, Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!