Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Picks 3/21 | Taking on a Busy Friday Slate!

Friday, March 21st - DFS Plays & Pick 'Ems for Today's NBA Action!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter/X & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Terms: Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling, and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER. Using an affiliate offer will help support LineStar who may receive a commission fee from the referral. Other conditions may apply, please see link for full details.

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Depending on your site of choice, you’ll be looking at a seven-game (DraftKings) or 10-game (FanDuel) Friday main slate! DK has nixed the three late games in the 10 o’clock ET window. For a slate of this size, the injury report really isn’t too bad. As usual, there will be quite a few key players that are out tonight, but there are very few notable players with “questionable” tags that we’ll need to monitor (pending any further additions). Let’s get into it! Best of luck!

Quick Note: I am a little short on time today so this will be a pretty concise newsletter!

 

Today’s Key Injuries

  • Magic: C. Anthony - OUT

  • Wizards: B. Coulibaly - OUT, M. Brogdon - OUT, M. Smart - OUT

  • 76ers: T. Maxey - OUT, K. Oubre - OUT, A. Drummond - OUT, A. Bona - OUT, L. Walker IV - Probable

  • Spurs: C. Bassey - OUT

  • Rockets: A. Thompson - Probable, R. Sheppard - OUT

  • Heat: A. Wiggins - Probable, N. Jovic - OUT

  • Hornets: L. Ball - OUT, M. Williams - OUT, J. Okogie - OUT, M. Garrett - OUT

  • Thunder: Jal. Williams - OUT, L. Dort - OUT, C. Wallace - Questionable

  • Pelicans: Z. Williamson - OUT, B. Boston Jr. - OUT

  • Timberwolves: None

  • Pistons: None

  • Mavs: A. Davis - OUT, D. Gafford - OUT, D. Lively II - OUT, B. Williams - Probable, C. Martin - OUT

  • Celtics: J. Brown - OUT

  • Jazz: L. Markkanen - OUT, J. Collins - OUT, J. Clarkson - Questionable, KJ Martin - OUT

 

Late Game Key Injuries (FanDuel Main Slate Only)

  • Nuggets: N. Jokic - OUT, J. Murray - Questionable, C. Braun - Probable, A. Gordon - Probable, J. Strawther - OUT

  • Trailblazers: D. Ayton - OUT, D. Clingan - Questionable, J. Grant - Doubtful, R. Williams - OUT, J. Walker - OUT

  • Cavs: None

  • Suns: B. Beal - OUT, G. Allen -Questionable, M. Plumlee - OUT

  • Grizzlies: J. Morant - OUT, D. Bane - Questionable, B. Clarke - OUT

  • Clippers: None

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Cade Cunningham, DET | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.8k | at DAL

Cunningham isn’t cheap these days, but he’s coming off of a big 25/12/11 triple-double against the Heat on Wednesday and has upped his production to 1.57 FPPM L5Games with a usage rate over 35% in that span. This game boasts the highest combined pace on the slate, and, over their last 10 games, respectively, the Pistons have been playing at the 2nd fastest pace in the NBA while the Mavs check in at 7th in that span. It’s a strong individual matchup for Cunningham as the Mavs have allowed the 5th most FPPG to starting PGs L20Games.

 

PG/SG CJ McCollum, NOP | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.3k | at MIN

Consistency hasn’t been in McCollum’s bag lately but the upside has still peeked through. He went for a 26/7/9 stat line versus the Spurs this past Saturday, resulting in 50.75 DKFP/46.90 FDFP. Zion Williamson will not suit up tonight and multiple other key players have previously been ruled out for the rest of the season (Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III, and Herbert Jones). With those players off the floor this season, McCollum has seen a sizable +6.6% USG% boost and has averaged +6.7 FP per 32 minutes. It’s not the best matchup and the Pels are sizable 14.5-point underdogs today, but McCollum should be tasked with a sizable workload in this game.

 

PG Mike Conley, MIN | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. NOP

This is perhaps more of a DraftKings play since Mike Conley is dirt cheap there at just $3,600. Conley’s ceiling isn’t very high these days, but this is just a head-scratching price tag for a guy who has put up at least 24.75 DKFP in five of his last seven games, including 25.0 DKFP in this same matchup versus the Pelicans on Wednesday. A similar result tonight would represent right around 7x value.

 

Other Guards to Consider

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC vs. CHA

SG Anthony Edwards, MIN vs. NOP

PG/SG Quentin Grimes, PHI at SAS

PG/SG Derrick White, BOS at UTA

PG/SG Stephon Castle, SAS vs. PHI

PG/SG Jrue Holiday, BOS at UTA

PG/SG Donte DiVincenzo, MIN vs. NOP

PG Chris Paul, SAS vs. PHI

PG Jose Alvarado, NOP at MIN

PG/SG Jordan Hawkins, NOP at MIN

 

FanDuel Main Slate Only

PG James Harden, LAC vs. MEM

PG Darius Garland, CLE at PHX

PG Russell Westbrook, DEN at POR (Boost if starting)

SG/SF Shaedon Sharpe, POR vs. DEN

PG Scotty Pippen, MEM at LAC

 

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF Paolo Banchero, ORL | DK: $9.9k, FD: $9.2k | vs. WAS

There is not much to love at the top of forward pricing today, but Banchero has been popping for some big games lately and heads in averaging 1.47 FPPM L5Games. You can also never complain about the Wizards matchup draw, as they play at the 4th fastest pace and rank 28th in DEFRTG. They also chime in at 24th versus starting power forwards over their previous 10 games.

 

SF/PF Keldon Johnson, SAS | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.4k | vs. PHI

Maybe not the sexiest of plays but Keldon Johnson has been providing some nice value recently and has posted a solid 1.13 FPPM across his last six games. His +3.7% USG% increase with De’Aaron Fox and Victor Wembanyama (both out for the season) off the floor is the second-highest mark on the team, and it’s a strong matchup versus the shorthanded 76ers, who have allowed the 3rd most FPPG to bench players over their last 20 games.

 

SF/PF Justin Edwards, PHI | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4.9k | at SAS

The 76ers starting lineup doesn’t resemble an NBA-caliber roster these days but, due to all of their injured players, they can routinely produce some value options. Justin Edwards will continue to start and have a shot to play some big minutes. He has played 30 and 40 minutes in his last two games while providing DFS scores of 31.0 DKFP/31.4 FDFP (at OKC) and 31.75 DKFP/31.60 FDFP (at HOU). If he posts a similar result tonight, we’ll be very content with that at these current sub-$5k price points.

 

Other Forwards to Consider

SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS at UTA

PF/C PJ Washington, DAL vs. DET

SF/SG Devin Vassell, SAS vs. PHI

SF/PF Aaron Wiggins, OKC vs. CHA

PF Tobias Harris, DET at DAL

PF/C Jeremy Sochan, SAS vs. PHI

SF/SG Lonnie Walker IV, PHI at SAS

SF/SG Bruce Brown, NOP at MIN

PF/C Sandro Mamukelashvili, SAS vs. PHI

SF Jaylen Martin, WAS vs. ORL

SF/SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker, MIN vs. NOP

 

FanDuel Main Slate Only

SF/PF Kawhi Leonard, LAC vs. MEM

SF/PF Deni Avdija, POR vs. DEN

PF Aaron Gordon, DEN at POR

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Jalen Duren, DET | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.1k | at DAL

There aren’t many standout center plays on this slate but, despite some so-so performances over the last week, Duren lands in a strong spot today. He’s still averaging an excellent 1.35 FPPM over his L20Games and is always a solid bet to record a double-double. The Mavs have ranked 27th versus starting centers L5Games and Duren went for 44.75 DKFP/44.1 FDFP when these teams met in late January. I wouldn’t be surprised by a similar result tonight.

 

C Jusuf Nurkic, CHA | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.4k | at OKC

The Hornets are missing two of their best players tonight with LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams ruled out. Jusuf Nurkic is expected to start in place of Williams and, while he may not play massive minutes, he should see enough run to pay off these low-end salaries. Nurk has averaged an elite 1.47 FPPM in his last five starts and the Thunder have not been overly stout against centers, allowing the 9th most FPPG to the position L20Games. The Hornets are comically large 20.5-point underdogs in this one but there is still a good chance Nurkic can return value before this one gets too far out of hand.

 

Other Centers to Consider

C Kristaps Porzingis, BOS at UTA

C Rudy Gobert, MIN vs. NOP

C Yves Missi, NOP at MIN

C Tristan Vukcevic, WAS vs. ORL

C Isaiah Stewart, DET at DAL

 

FanDuel Main Slate Only

C Ivica Zubac, LAC vs. MEM

C Donovan Clingan, POR vs. DEN (Currently questionable)

 

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Terms: Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling, and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER. Using an affiliate offer will help support LineStar who may receive a commission fee from the referral. Other conditions may apply, please see link for full details.