Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter/X & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

NBA DFS Today w/ Tyler Wiemann

🏀Tyler’s NBA prop bets can be found on the LineStar YouTube Shorts page!🏀

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

A loaded NBA Wednesday brings us an eight-game main slate, with an additional four-game West Coast slate later tonight for those looking to double up on the action. There’s no shortage of appealing game environments here, with four matchups carrying totals of at least 238.5 points and only one game featuring a double-digit spread. For a slate of this size, the injury report is manageable, especially once we get past the early 7:00 PM ET tip-offs. This sets up as a fun slate to break down, so let’s dive in. Best of luck!

And for my fellow baseball fans – Happy Opening Night!

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Today’s Key Injuries 🚑

^{Note: NBA injury reports can be fickle and often update throughout the day. Be sure to stay up-to-date on all injury news leading up to tip-off as the list below may be a bit outdated by the time you’re reading this.}

^{Additional Note: Players who will miss the remainder of the season will be excluded from the injury report.}

• Hawks: J. Johnson – Questionable

• Pistons: C. Cunningham – OUT, J. Duren – Probable, T. Harris – Probable, M. Sasser – OUT, I. Stewart – OUT, J. Green – Questionable

• Lakers: D. Ayton – Questionable, M. Smart – OUT, R. Hachimura – OUT

• Pacers: P. Siakam – Probable, A. Nembhard – Probable, A. Nesmith – Probable, O. Toppin – Probable

• Bulls: A. Simons – DOUBTFUL, J. Ivey – OUT, G. Yabusele- Questionable, I. Okoro – Questionable

• 76ers: T. Maxey – OUT, J. Embiid – Questionable, Q. Grimes – Questionable, K. Oubre Jr. – OUT

• Thunder: None

• Celtics: N. Vucevic – OUT

• Heat: None

• Cavs: J. Allen – OUT, M. Strus – OUT, J. Tyson – OUT, C. Porter Jr. – OUT, L. Nance Jr. – Questionable

• Spurs: D. Fox – OUT, L. Kornet – OUT

• Grizzlies: J. Morant – OUT, T. Jerome – OUT, J. Small – Questionable, J. Mashack – DOUBTFUL, J. Wells – OUT

• Wizards: T. Young – OUT, K. George – OUT, A. Sarr – OUT, T. Vukcevic – OUT, T. Johnson – OUT

• Jazz: L. Markkanen – OUT, I. Collier – OUT, K. George – OUT, K. Filipowski – OUT, B. Sensabaugh – OUT, C. Williams – Questionable

• Rockets: None

• Timberwolves: A. Edwards – OUT, A. Dosunmu – Questionable

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Luka Doncic, LAL | DK: $12.2k, FD: $12.8k | at IND

Doncic has been operating on a different level, carrying a massive offensive role while producing at an elite rate. Over his last five games, he’s posted an absurd 42.9% USG%, which leads the slate by a wide margin, with the next-closest option, Pascal Siakam, well behind him at a 34.3% USG% over his last five. That level of involvement keeps both his floor and ceiling as high as anyone’s, and it’s no surprise he’s been regularly pushing for 70+ DKFP.

The matchup only adds to the appeal, with Indiana ranking dead last in DvP versus point guards over their last 20 games. Doncic has already torched this team recently, posting 74.75 DKFP in only 32 minutes in their last meeting about three weeks back. While the Pacers’ overall record suggests a weaker opponent, they’ve gotten healthier of late, and the 9.5-point spread points toward a semi-competitive game script. With the Lakers carrying a 124.0 implied total (ranks 2nd on the slate), Doncic once again profiles as the top spend-up option with the highest ceiling available. Value shouldn’t be too difficult to come by today, which further adds to Doncic’s viability as a top shelf spend-up.

PG Kennedy Chandler, UTA | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.8k | vs. WAS

With Utah extremely shorthanded once again, Chandler should be in line for a significant role in this backcourt. He’s only appeared in two NBA games this season, but the early returns have been strong, averaging 1.09 FPPM while producing 16.0 PPG, 6.5 APG, 5.0 RPG, and 2.0 STL+BLK/gm across those outings. The usage has been modest (18.4%), but he’s made up for it with efficient, all-around production.

Utah appears committed to giving him meaningful run down the stretch, and he’s projecting for 30 minutes this evening. The matchup only helps, as Washington ranks dead last in DvP versus bench guards, and this game carries one of the better environments on the slate (238.5 total, UTA -4.5) with the fastest combined pace. With a clear path to minutes and the ability to contribute across the stat sheet, Chandler is one of the standout value options available.

PG/SG Dylan Harper, SAS | DK: $4.8k, FD: $6.1k | at MEM

With De’Aaron Fox sidelined, Harper should see an uptick in opportunity, even if he doesn’t move into the starting lineup. That hasn’t been an issue for him in the past, as he’s shown the ability to produce efficiently in a bench role. In the last game Fox missed (Dec. 27th), Harper logged 27 minutes off the bench and turned in a 7/7/12 stat line with three steals, resulting in 38.75 DKFP despite operating with just a 14.9% USG%.

Recent form has also been strong, averaging 1.14 FPPM and 29.7 DKFP/gm across 25.0 minutes/gm over his last seven games while shooting an efficient 57.7% from the field and 52.2% from three. This game does carry clear blowout risk (SAS -16.5), but Harper should still push into the 26–28-minute range. At these price points, he grades out as a stronger value on DraftKings but remains squarely in play on both sites given his efficiency and the expected role expansion.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Josh Giddey, CHI at PHI

PG James Harden, CLE vs. MIA

PG/SG VJ Edgecombe, PHI vs. CLE (Preferred if Embiid remains out)

PG/SG Austin Reaves, LAL at IND

SG Stephon Castle, SAS at MEM

SG/SF Ayo Dosunmu, MIN vs. HOU (Questionable)

PG/SG Reed Sheppard, HOU at MIN

PG Andrew Nembhard, IND vs. LAL

PG Daniss Jenkins, DET vs. ATL

PG/SG Bub Carrington, WAS at UTA

PG/SG EJ Harkless, UTA vs. WAS

PG/SG Bones Hyland, MIN vs. HOU (Boost if Dosunmu is out)

SG Sam Merrill, CLE vs. MIA

SG/SF Jamir Watkins, WAS at UTA

PG Walter Clayton Jr., MEM vs. SAS

SG Jaden Hardy, WAS at UTA

PG Jordan McLaughlin, SAS at MEM

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/PF Ace Bailey, UTA | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.2k | vs. WAS

Bailey has taken full advantage of the increased opportunity in this shorthanded Utah rotation, turning in a dominant stretch over his last three games. During that span, he’s averaging 55.8 DKFP/gm and an elite 1.64 FPPM while taking on a massive scoring role, highlighted by multiple games with seven made threes. The shot volume and confidence have clearly been there, and he’s now cleared 50+ DKFP in three straight.

Utah has done plenty of things wrong this season, but letting their rookie 5th overall pick shine down the stretch of a lost season gets my full support. It’s still not always the easiest thing to trust anyone on this Jazz team, but the environment here is tough to ignore, with the fastest combined pace on the slate (UTA 2nd, WAS 6th) and a slim 4.5-point spread. Bailey has already found success in this matchup, posting 32 points and 44.0 DKFP in 33 minutes against Washington earlier this month. The price tags are starting to climb but given his current form and upside in this spot, it’s difficult to look past him.

SF/SG Keldon Johnson, SAS | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.9k | at MEM

Johnson should see a slight boost with De’Aaron Fox sidelined and heads in with some nice form. He’s turned in back-to-back 20+ point performances, averaging 33.5 DKFP in those games, and has been operating at 1.03 FPPM across his last five. With a projection of 24.0 minutes tonight, the role and efficiency both support his value at these prices.

The matchup also works in his favor, as Memphis ranks 26th in DvP versus bench players over their last 20 games. Johnson has consistently seen strong run in this matchup as well, logging 28+ minutes in all three meetings against the Grizzlies this season.

PF/C Anthony Gill, WAS | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.2k | at UTA

Gill is back in play as a value option with Washington continuing to deal with frontcourt injuries. With Alex Sarr and Tristan Vukcevic both sidelined, he could draw another start at center, and while his last start didn’t produce much, he was limited to just 16 minutes in that game. This time around, there’s a realistic path for him to push toward or exceed 30 minutes.

The matchup only strengthens the case, as Utah is highly vulnerable on the interior, and this game sets up as one of the best environments on the slate. As mentioned multiple times already in this newsletter, this game features the fastest combined pace, along with the two worst defenses in the league by DEFRTG, which should create plenty of scoring and peripheral stat opportunities. With multi-position eligibility and near-minimum salaries, Gill is firmly in play as a value option if the minutes come through.

Other Forwards to Consider

SF/SG Jaylen Brown, BOS vs. OKC

PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE vs. MIA

PF/C Pascal Siakam, IND vs. LAL

SF/PF Matas Buzelis, CHI at PHI

SF Jaden McDaniels, MIN vs. HOU (Boost if Dosunmu is out)

SF Bilal Coulibaly, WAS at UTA

PF Tyler Burton, MEM vs. SAS

SF/PF John Konchar, UTA vs. WAS

PF/C Obi Toppin, IND vs. LAL

SF Carter Bryant, SAS at MEM

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Victor Wembanyama, SAS | DK: $11.3k, FD: $12.5k | at MEM

It’s a deep slate but the center player pool feels pretty shallow, so that’s further reason to lean toward Wemby. He brings elite per-minute potential and is always a viable play, especially when there is no shortage of value available elsewhere. Over his past 20 starts, he’s averaged 1.83 FPPM, giving him one of the highest ceilings available, especially if he pushes toward a full workload. Wemby has also boosted his usage rate to 34.2% with De’Aaron Fox off the floor, which is a notable bump from his baseline 31.9% USG%.

Blowout risk is the main concern here, but even in limited minutes, Wembanyama has shown he can deliver. When he was fresh off a brief injury absence, he posted 45.25 DKFP in just 21 minutes (2.15 FPPM) off the bench in this matchup earlier this season, highlighting how quickly he can rack up production. Memphis has also struggled against opposing centers, ranking 26th in DvP over their last 10 games. If he gets close to 30 minutes in this spot, it’s difficult to imagine he fails.

C Oscar Tshiebwe, UTA | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. WAS

We’ve got one final value play to spotlight from this game, and Tshiebwe checks all the boxes at these price points. He’s projected for 25.0 minutes as Utah’s starting center and has averaged 1.05 FPPM in limited action this season, giving him a strong baseline for production with an expanded workload expected tonight. At near-minimum salaries, it doesn’t take much for him to return value. The matchup only adds to the appeal, as Washington has allowed the most FPPG to starting centers over their last 20 games. It’s a very straightforward value spot, so he’s going to garner plenty of ownership, but Tshiebwe could end up being one of those necessary value plays given his high probability of landing in the optimal lineup.

Other Centers to Consider

C Alperen Sengun, HOU at MIN

C Bam Adebayo, MIA at CLE

C Rudy Gobert, MIN vs. HOU

C Jalen Smith, CHI at PHI

C Nick Richards, CHI at PHI (Preferred if starting again)

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we have rolled out Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks, UnderDog Fantasy, and other prop apps/sites!

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter/X or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!