Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Picks 3/28 | Running Down Friday's Seven-Game Slate!

Friday, March 28th - DFS Plays & Pick 'Ems for Today's NBA Action!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter/X & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Terms: Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling, and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER. Using an affiliate offer will help support LineStar who may receive a commission fee from the referral. Other conditions may apply, please see link for full details.

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Seven NBA games hit the Friday docket! We’ll have some decent matchups mixed in with some likely blowouts on this slate, so keep that in mind when constructing your player pool. By late-season NBA standards, the injury report honestly isn’t bad at all. At the time of this writing, there are three, maybe four, impact players who bear a “questionable” designation -- Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jamal Murray, and Lauri Markkanen. Let’s jump right into it! Best of luck!

Quick Note: I’ll be “doubled up” on MLB and NBA newsletters over these next couple of weeks. So, due to personal time constraints, I’ll be keeping these NBA newsletters fairly short and sweet so that I can get them out in a reasonable amount of time!

 

Today’s Key Injuries

  • Cavs: T. Jerome - OUT, M. Strus - OUT

  • Pistons: C. Cunningham - OUT

  • Clippers: None

  • Nets: T. Watford - Questionable, Z. Williams - Questionable, D. Sharpe - OUT, N. Clowney - Questionable

  • Hornets: L. Ball - OUT, J. Okogie - OUT

  • Raptors: RJ Barrett - OUT, G. Dick - OUT, O. Agbaji - OUT, C. Boucher - Questionable

  • Warriors: S. Curry - Questionable, G. Payton II - OUT

  • Pelicans: Z. Williamson - OUT, CJ McCollum - OUT, B. Boston Jr. - OUT

  • Knicks: J. Brunson - OUT, M. McBride - OUT, C. Payne - OUT

  • Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Questionable, D. Lillard - OUT

  • Suns: B. Beal - OUT

  • Timberwolves: None

  • Jazz: L. Markkanen - Questionable, J. Collins - OUT, J. Clarkson - OUT

  • Nuggets: N. Jokic - Probable, J. Murray - Questionable, M. Porter Jr. - Probable, A. Gordon - Probable, C. Braun - Probable, J. Strawther - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG James Harden, LAC | DK: $9.6k, FD: $9.6k | at BKN

The point guard position is decimated by injuries on this slate, particularly at the top, so James Harden is going to stand out as a pretty clear spend-up. I wouldn’t say it’s very likely we’ll be able to squeeze 6x value out of Harden tonight, but with so much value available, his high floor may still be enough to land him in the optimal lineup. The Nets are one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA, but they check in at 20th in DEFRTG and have allowed the 5th most FPPG to starting PGs L20Games.

 

PG Immanuel Quickley, TOR | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7k | vs. CHA

Quickley has routinely sat out games for rest/injury management purposes, but when he has suited up, he has been highly productive. Quickley does not have an injury designation today, so by all indications, he will be ready to roll tonight. Over his previous five starts, Quickley is averaging a stout 1.35 FPPM and 37.8 DKFP/36.6 FDFP per game, and he has notched 40+ FP in back-to-back games heading into tonight. The Raptors still have a key player in RJ Barrett out tonight, along with a couple of notable role players, Gradey Dick and Ochai Agbaji. The Raptors have operated at the fastest pace in the NBA over their last 10 games, and the Hornets check in at 27th in DEFRTG in that same 10-game span.

 

PG Tyler Kolek, NYK | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.9k | at MIL

The Knicks are now down their top three point guards with Jalen Brunson, Miles McBride, and Cameron Payne all on the mend and ruled out for tonight’s action. Tyler Kolek, who has been seeing some decent run off of the bench while Brunson and McBride have been out, should be the odds-on favorite to start at PG for the Knicks tonight. In his limited playing time this season, Kolek has averaged a respectable 0.91 FPPM. And, despite playing an average of 18.3 Min/gm over the last three games, Kolek has dished 24 total assists in that time. So he’s likely going to be much more of a facilitator than a scorer but, as a starter, it’s tough to dislike this value with Kolek being near the stone minimum salary on both sites.

 

Other Guards to Consider

SG Anthony Edwards, MIN vs. PHX

PG/SG Brandin Podziemski, GSW at NOP (Boost if Curry is out)

PG/SG Collin Sexton, UTA at DEN

PG Jose Alvarado, NOP vs. GSW

PG/SG Dennis Schroder, DET vs. CLE

PG Kevin Porter Jr., MIL vs. NYK (Boost if starting again)

PG/SG Jordan Hawkins, NOP vs. GSW

PG KJ Simpson, CHA at TOR (Only if starting)

SG Sam Merrill, CLE at DET (Preferred if starting)

PG Mike Conley, MIN vs. PHX

PG/SG Marcus Sasser, DET vs. CLE

PG Elfrid Payton, NOP vs. GSW

 

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/PF Kawhi Leonard, LAC | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9k | at BKN

Much like his teammate James Harden, Kawhi Leonard is going to make for a very sensible target as a high-floor option… and 6x value is more of a possibility for him given the way he has been playing of late. There are zero restrictions on Leonard’s playing time at this point as the Clippers look to make a deep playoff run, and Leonard has been out there for at least 40 minutes in back-to-back games, neither of which went into overtime. Leonard heads in averaging 1.37 FPPM and 49.1 DKFP/47.6 FDFP over his last five games, and he has three consecutive double-doubles heading into tonight. A blowout is possible with the Clippers being 12.5-point road favorites, but I can’t imagine many scenarios where Leonard will burn you even if he doesn’t play huge minutes.

 

SF/SG Mikal Bridges, NYK | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.3k | at MIL

With their top three point guards (Brunson, McBride, Payne) off the floor this season, Bridges has handled a team-leading +4.4% USG% boost. In any competitive game, as this one should be given its one-point spread, Bridges is going to play nearly 40 minutes and he’s averaging right at an FPPM over his last five games. Good chance we can get 40+ FP out of him tonight so Bridges will be a worthy option out of the mid-range.

 

SF/SG Ja’Kobe Walter, TOR | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.4k | vs. CHA

Perhaps not the most exciting play but if Ja’Kobe Walter lands in the starting lineup once again tonight, he’s going to be a good bet for value. He played 30 minutes as a starter on Wednesday and has averaged a decent 0.88 FPPM over his L5Games as a starter. There is nothing concerning about the Hornets matchup and, as mentioned above, they have the 27th-ranked defense over their last 10 games.

 

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL vs. NYK (Currently questionable)

SF/PF Jimmy Butler, GSW at NOP

SF/PG Scottie Barnes, TOR vs. CHA

SF/PF OG Anunoby, NYK at MIL

SF/SG Christian Braun, DEN vs. UTA (Boost if Murray is out)

PF Tobias Harris, DET vs. CLE

PF/C Kyle Filipowski, UTA at DEN (Only if Markkanen remains out)

PF/C Kelly Olynyk, NOP vs. GSW

SF/PF Peyton Watson, DEN vs. UTA

SF/SG Johnny Juzang, UTA at DEN

PF Tidjane Salaun, CHA at TOR

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $12.3k, FD: $12.6k | vs. UTA

Joker returned from his five-game injury absence with a bang on Wednesday against the Bucks, putting up a very Joker-esque 39/10/10 triple-double across 38 minutes, which resulted in 71.0 DKFP/63.0 FDFP. He is still on the injury report but is officially “probable” to play, so he should be back in action once again tonight. This game has blowout potential written all over it, with Denver being massive 18-point home favorites, but if the Jazz can keep things relatively competitive, it’s clearly a smash spot for Jokic. When these teams last met in late December, Jokic went nuclear for a 36/22/11 stat line and 93.0 DKFP/88.9 FDFP. Of course, that isn’t likely to happen again but, as we all know with Jokic, anything is possible. Given all of the value, particularly at the guard positions, it won’t be difficult to squeeze Jokic into lineups today.

 

C Yves Missi, NOP | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.3k | vs. GSW

The Pelicans are down arguably their four best players with Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum both out tonight and Dejounte Murray and Trey Murphy III both done for the season. Yves Missi has averaged nearly +5.0 more FP per 32 minutes with those players off the floor and he heads in averaging 11.5 PPG and 9.0 RPG across his last four starts. Missi is also at 1.10 FPPM in that span and should have a fairly strong pathway to about 30 minutes' worth of playing time tonight, even if things get out of hand on the scoreboard. The Warriors have also ranked dead last versus starting centers over their previous 10 games, so it’s not as bad of a matchup as some of the season-long numbers would indicate.

 

Other Centers to Consider

C Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK at MIL

C Ivica Zubac, LAC at BKN

C Jarrett Allen, CLE at DET

C Rudy Gobert, MIN vs. PHX

C Brook Lopez, MIL vs. NYK (Boost if Giannis is out again)

C Jakob Poelyl, TOR vs. CHA

C Isaiah Stewart, DET vs. CLE

 

With the NBA regular season coming to a close and MLB season back in action, I’ll be putting more prop betting focus onto the latter sport. Tyler & Shannon will still have ya covered down the regular season stretch with some great NBA pick recommendations in the props videos posted at the top of these newsletters!

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Terms: Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling, and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER. Using an affiliate offer will help support LineStar who may receive a commission fee from the referral. Other conditions may apply, please see link for full details.