Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter/X & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

NBA DFS Today w/ Tyler Wiemann

🏀Tyler’s NBA prop bets can be found on the LineStar YouTube Shorts page!🏀

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Thursday brings a solid six-game main slate to the table. The overall game environments look fairly healthy, with only one matchup carrying a double-digit spread. Injuries will once again play a major role, as several high-impact players carry questionable tags heading into the evening. Depending on how that news unfolds – particularly for the games tipping at 7:30 ET or later – late swapping could provide a notable edge. Let’s see what we can put together tonight. Best of luck!

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Today’s Key Injuries 🚑

^{Note: NBA injury reports can be fickle and often update throughout the day. Be sure to stay up-to-date on all injury news leading up to tip-off as the list below may be a bit outdated by the time you’re reading this.}

^{Additional Note: Players who have yet to play this season will be excluded from the injury report, unless they have either a probable, questionable, or doubtful injury designation, with some amount of chance to make their season debut. Injured players who have been out for an extended period of time and/or are not expected to play for a month-plus will also be excluded.}

• Jazz: L. Markkanen – OUT, K. George – OUT

• Wizards: A. Sarr – OUT, K. George – OUT, T. Vukcevic – OUT, A. Gil – Questionable, J. Watkins – OUT (Note: T. Young will make his WAS debut)

• Mavs: C. Flagg – Questionable, N. Marshall – Probable, B. Williams – Questionable, M. Bagley III – OUT, K. Thompson – Probable

• Magic: F. Wagner – OUT, A. Black – Questionable, W. Carter Jr. – Questionable, J. Isaac – Questionable

• Warriors: S. Curry – OUT, M. Moody – OUT, K. Porzingis – OUT, G. Payton II – Questionable, W. Richard – OUT

• Rockets: A. Sengun – Questionable, A. Thompson – Questionable, J. Smith Jr. – Questionable

• Nets: E. Demin – OUT

• Heat: N. Powell – OUT, S. Fontecchio – OUT, N. Jovic – OUT

• Pistons: None

• Spurs: H. Barnes – OUT

• Raptors: B. Ingram – Questionable, C. Murray-Boyles – OUT

• Timberwolves: A. Edwards – Questionable, J. Clark – Questionable

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Cade Cunningham, DET | DK: $11.2k, FD: $11.3k | at SAS

Cunningham stands out as one of the most reliable spend-up options at guard on this slate. Detroit travels to San Antonio for what should be one of the more competitive games of the night, and Cunningham has been producing at a high level in recent outings. Over his last four games, he has posted 64.5, 57.0, and 51.5 DKFP in three of them, while continuing to carry a massive offensive role for the Pistons.

With several other top guards entering the night with questionable tags, Cunningham profiles as the most stable high-end option at the position until more injury news arrives. His price is certainly steep, but this is the type of slate where a steady all-around performance (by Cunningham’s standards) could still be enough to justify the salary. San Antonio has been strong defensively overall but ranks a middling 18th in DvP versus point guards, and with this game carrying the narrowest spread on the slate, Cunningham should once again see heavy minutes in a competitive environment.

SG/SF Desmond Bane, ORL | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.7k | vs. DAL

With Franz Wagner still sidelined and a couple of other starters carrying Q-tags, Orlando should continue to lean heavily on Bane to carry a larger share of the offensive load. He has responded with strong consistency, posting at least 34 DKFP in six straight games and no fewer than 32.5 DKFP in his last eight. That stretch includes four performances of 49+ DKFP, showing the type of ceiling he can reach when the scoring volume spikes.

The matchup lines up well for another productive outing. Orlando receives a pace boost in this spot against Dallas, who rank fourth in pace compared to the Magic’s 18th. It’s also an excellent individual matchup, as the Mavericks rank dead last in DvP versus starting shooting guards over their last 20 games. If Cooper Flagg (foot/questionable) is able to return for Dallas, it would only improve the chances of this game remaining competitive and keeping Bane’s minutes secure.

SG/SF Keldon Johnson, SAS | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.4k | vs. DET

Until we get more clarity on the many injury situations across this slate, guard value options are fairly limited at the time of this writing. One cheap player worth considering is Keldon Johnson, who carries SG eligibility on DraftKings. San Antonio often runs a deep rotation due to the number of blowouts they’re involved in, but when games stay competitive, that rotation typically tightens to around nine or ten players – which should be the case tonight.

Harrison Barnes, who is one of the primary rotation pieces for the Spurs, is set to miss a second straight game with an ankle injury, opening the door for Johnson to pick up a few extra minutes off the bench. He typically hovers around the 20-minute mark, but his ceiling increases noticeably whenever his workload pushes toward 25 minutes. Johnson has also averaged a respectable 0.93 FPPM over his last 20 games, giving him solid per-minute production for his price. Johnson logged 22 minutes on Tuesday and fell one board shy of a double-double, and likely would’ve handled a few additional minutes if the Spurs did not blow out the 76ers by 40 points. Johnson has been more productive at home as well, averaging +16.3% more fantasy points per game while shooting 40.4% from three. With the Spurs also on the front end of a back-to-back, there’s also a chance the starters see slightly lighter workloads, which could create additional opportunity for Johnson off the bench.

Other Guards to Consider

SG Anthony Edwards, MIN vs. TOR (Currently questionable)

PG Immanuel Quickley, TOR at MIN (Boost if Ingram is out)

PG/SG Tyler Herro, MIA vs. BKN

PG Jalen Suggs, ORL vs. DAL (Preferred if Black remains out)

SG Tari Eason, HOU vs. GSW (Only if some combo of Sengun/Thompson/Smith Jr. are out)

PG/SG Reed Sheppard, HOU vs. GSW (Boost if any one of Sengun/Thompson/Smith Jr. are out)

PG Donte DiVincenzo, MIN vs. TOR (Boost if Edwards is out)

SG/SF Ayo Dosunmu, MIN vs. TOR (Only if Edwards is out)

PG Davion Mitchell, MIA vs. BKN

SG Duncan Robinson, DET at SAS

PG Sharife Cooper, WAS vs. UTA

PG/SG Jevon Carter, ORL vs. DAL (Preferred if Black remains out)

PG/SG Bones Hyland, MIN vs. TOR (Only if Edwards is out)

PG Kasparas Jakucionis, MIA vs. BKN

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF Kevin Durant, HOU | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.3k | vs. GSW

Durant sets up as one of the top spend-up options at forward, especially with Houston carrying several key injury question marks into tonight. Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, and Jabari Smith Jr. are all listed as questionable, and if any of them sit, Durant would see a noticeable bump in usage. In roughly 100 minutes this season with all three off the floor, Durant owns a massive 38.5% USG% – a significant jump from his 27.5% baseline. I don’t think it’s necessarily likely that all three of those Rockets starters sit tonight, but that shows the type of workload KD could be in line for.

The recent form has been excellent as well. Since the All-Star break, Durant has scored 30+ points in five of seven games and is averaging 48.1 DKFP over that span. He has also played at least 37 minutes in three straight contests, and has popped for at least 54.75 DKFP in two of those games. The spot itself is favorable, too. Golden State is dealing with injuries of its own, and Durant has historically been more productive at home, averaging 12.7% more fantasy points per game in Houston this season. With strong recent form and the possibility of a major usage bump depending on Houston’s injury news, Durant brings one of the highest ceilings at the forward position against his former team tonight.

PF/C Kyle Filipowski, UTA | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.3k | at WAS

It’s pretty wild that this slate features a matchup between the 29th- and 30th-ranked defenses, carrying a 240+ total with just a 4.5-point spread, yet there are surprisingly few players from this game we can feel truly confident about. That’s the reality when both teams are leaning heavily into tank mode, as the Jazz and Wizards appear to be. Still, Kyle Filipowski stands out as one of the few players from this game with legitimate upside if the minutes cooperate.

His workload has been volatile lately, but whenever Filipowski pushes toward the 30-minute mark, the fantasy ceiling becomes very real. He’s averaging 1.21 FPPM over his last five games and has produced plenty of 40+ DKFP performances in starts this season. The matchup could hardly be better either. Washington may have Trae Young making his team debut tonight, but the frontcourt remains extremely thin, and even when healthy the Wizards rank dead last in rebounding percentage while allowing the fourth-most points in the paint per game. If Filipowski lands near 30 minutes, this is an ideal spot for him to deliver a big fantasy line.

SF Nate Williams, GSW | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.8k | at HOU

This value play becomes more appealing if Gary Payton II (ankle/questionable) misses a second straight game. Even if Payton suits up, Golden State remains thin on the wing right now, which has opened the door for Williams to see rotation minutes. The Warriors signed him to a two-way deal last month, and he has appeared in each of the last two games due to those depth issues.

His outing against the Clippers on Monday was especially encouraging, as he scored 18 points and finished with 26.5 DKFP in 22 minutes off the bench. Williams has been productive in the G-League this season, averaging 19.5 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 3.0 combined steals and blocks across 32.6 minutes while shooting just under 40% from three. If he lands in the 20–24 minute range again tonight, his scoring ability and defensive stat upside could make him an appealing – and likely low-owned – punt option at $3,800 on both sites.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF Paolo Banchero, ORL vs. DAL

PF Scottie Barnes, TOR at MIN (Preferred if Ingram is out)

PF Julius Randle, MIN vs. TOR (Boost if Edwards is out)

SF Naji Marshall, DAL at ORL

PF Gui Santos, HOU vs. GSW

SF Jaden McDaniels, MIN vs. TOR (Boost if Edwards is out)

PF Andrew Wiggins, MIA vs. BKN

SF Jaime Jaquez Jr., MIA vs. BKN

SF Ausar Thompson, DET at SAS

SF Devin Vassell, SAS vs. DET

SF/PF Will Riley, WAS vs. UTA

PF/C Justin Champagnie, WAS vs. UTA

SF/SG Gary Payton II, GSW at HOU (Currently questionable)

SF/PF Leaky Black, WAS vs. UTA

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Jalen Duren, DET | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.3k | at SAS

In one of the premiere matchups of the night, Jalen Duren will square off with Victor Wembanyama in a game between two NBA Championship hopefuls. While Wembanyama has the higher raw ceiling, Duren comes at a significant discount and continues to provide excellent production in his own right. These two met last Monday, and even in the loss Duren delivered a massive performance with 25 points, 14 rebounds, and 48 DKFP.

Duren has been outstanding since the All-Star break. Over those six games, he’s averaging 25.5 points, 13.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.0 blocks while producing 50.0 DKFP per game and 1.56 FPPM. He has also posted a double-double in all six of those games. The matchup with San Antonio is far from easy with Wembanyama protecting the rim, but Duren’s recent form is difficult to ignore. If he continues playing at this level, he remains a very strong option at center even in a tougher individual matchup.

C Kel’el Ware, MIA | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.9k | vs. BKN

Ware enters tonight’s matchup in excellent form after posting back-to-back double-doubles worth 36.75 and 39.25 DKFP. In Tuesday’s meeting with Brooklyn, he finished with 11 points, 13 rebounds, and five steals, continuing a strong recent stretch for the second-year big man.

His minutes have fluctuated throughout the season, but the per-minute production has been outstanding lately. Over his last nine games, Ware is averaging 1.41 FPPM and has recorded six double-doubles during that span. He has also played the entire fourth quarter in each of the last two games – one game being a blowout over the Nets and the other being a fairly competitive 105-115 game against the Rockets. The matchup works in his favor as well, with Brooklyn ranking 26th in DvP versus backup centers over their last 20 games. Whether this game stays competitive or turns into a blowout, Ware’s recent production makes it increasingly difficult for head coach Erik Spoelstra to keep him off the floor.

Other Centers to Consider

C Victor Wembanyama, SAS vs. DET

C Bam Adebayo, MIA vs. BKN

C Jakob Poeltl, TOR at MIN

C Dwight Powell, DAL at ORL

C Goga Bitadze, ORL vs. DAL (Only if Carter Jr. is out again)

C Julian Reese, WAS vs. UTA (Only if Gil is out again)

C Clint Capela, HOU vs. GSW (Only if Sengun is out)

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we have rolled out Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks, UnderDog Fantasy, and other prop apps/sites!

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter/X or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!