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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Picks 3/5 | Running Down Wednesday's Injury-Ridden Slate!

Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Picks 3/5 | Running Down Wednesday's Injury-Ridden Slate!

Wednesday, March 5th - DFS Plays & Pick 'Ems for Today's NBA Action!

Ryan Humphries
March 05, 2025

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter/X & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler & Shannon

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Prepare for some chaos! Wednesday’s NBA schedule is set up with eight games on the board, though, DraftKings will be excluding the latest game (DET/LAC) from their main slate while FanDuel will feature all eight games. I am genuinely curious if players from every single team on this slate, aside from the Cavs, drove down to New Orleans for Mardi Gras last night. This injury report, as seen below, is absolutely wild… you would think it’s the final day of the regular season given how many guys are listed as “out” or “questionable”! So, strap in, because this is sure to be a crazy one. Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

Trailblazers: D. Ayton - OUT, J. Grant - Questionable, R. Williams - OUT
Celtics: J. Tatum - Questionable, J. Brown - Questionable, K. Porzingis - Doubtful, D. White - Probable, P. Pritchard - Probable, J. Holiday - Doubtful
Timberwolves: J. Randle - Questionable, R. Gobert - OUT, M. Conley - OUT
Hornets: J. Okogie - OUT, J. Nurkic - Probable
Jazz: L. Markkanen - OUT, W. Kessler - OUT, J. Collins - OUT, K. George - Questionable, J. Clarkson - OUT, C. Sexton - OUT, J. Springer - OUT
Wizards: J. Poole - OUT, M. Brogdon - OUT, R. Holmes - OUT
Heat: T. Herro - Questionable, A. Wiggins - OUT, K. Ware - OUT, N. Jovic - OUT, J. Jaquez Jr. - OUT
Cavs: None (Cleveland gets a gold star today)
Mavs: A. Davis - OUT, K. Irving - OUT (Done for the year, will no longer be listed in these injury reports), PJ Washington - OUT, D. Gafford - OUT, D. Lively II - OUT, K. Jones - Questionable, D. Exum - OUT, J. Hardy - OUT, C. Martin - Doubtful
Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable, D. Lillard - Probable, K. Kuzma - Probable, G. Trent Jr. - OUT, P. Connaughton - OUT
Kings: D. Sabonis - OUT, M. Monk - OUT
Nuggets: N. Jokic - Questionable, A. Gordon - Questionable, J. Strawther - OUT, P. Watson - Questionable, Z. Nnaji - Questionable
Thunder: C. Holmgren - OUT, A. Wiggins - Questionable, A. Caruso - OUT
Grizzlies: J. Morant - Questionable, J. Jackson Jr. - OUT, S. Aldama - Questionable, S. Pippen Jr. - Questionable, J. Konchar - Questionable

Late Game Injury Report (FanDuel Main Slate Only)

Pistons: T. Harris - OUT, I. Stewart - Probable
Clippers: K. Leonard - OUT, N. Powell - OUT, B. Simmons - OUT, D. Jones Jr. - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.6k | at MEM

With so many important players either out or “iffy” (aka “questionable”) to suit up tonight, there is inevitably going to be a ton of value. That makes paying up for one of the healthy superstars, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, incredibly easy. SGA is coming off a 51-point performance against Houston and will now draw a juicy matchup with the Grizzlies, who remain the fastest-paced team in the NBA. I’ll like this game’s chances of remaining competitive more if Ja Morant (questionable) is able to suit up but, as it stands now, it holds a massive 253.5 over/under and reasonably close spread (OKC -7.5). Tough to ignore the key guys in this one.

PG/SG Spencer Dinwiddie, DAL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.6k | at MIL

The hits keep coming for the Mavs, who are already the laughingstock of the NBA after trading Luka Doncic at the deadline. On top of being exceptionally thin in the frontcourt, they’ll now be without star Kyrie Irving for the remainder of the season after he suffered a torn ACL in Monday’s game versus the Kings. That will thrust Spencer Dinwiddie into a prominent role, presumably as the starting point guard. The Mavs (+11) are outclassed in their matchup with the Bucks today and are the largest underdogs on the slate, but they may very well be rolling with as short as an eight or nine-man rotation this evening. So there are plenty of minutes and ample usage available to fall into the lap of a guy like Dinwiddie, and Milwaukee has allowed the 5th most FPPG to starting PGs L20Games, so there is reason to have high hopes for him from a DFS value standpoint.

PG/SG Keon Ellis, SAC | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.8k | at DEN

There is more guard value to be found on the Kings’ roster as they’ll be without both Malik Monk and Domantas Sabonis. Monk’s absence should lead to a spot start for Keon Ellis at point guard tonight. He hasn’t been a prolific FPPM scorer but he has still posted a respectable 0.87 FPPM in his L5Games as a starter, and he racks up plenty of steals, resulting in 27.9 DKFP/29.0 FDFP per game L5Starts. If he posts a similar score tonight, that would represent some easy 6x-plus value at these low-end price points.

Other Guards to Consider

SG Anthony Edwards, MIN at CHA

SG Desmond Bane, MEM vs. OKC (Boost if Morant is out)

SG/SF Zach LaVine, SAC at DEN

PG/SG Jamal Murray, DEN vs. SAC (Boost if Jokic is out)

PG/SG Derrick White, BOS vs. POR (Preferred if Tatum and/or J. Brown are out)

PG Keyonte George, UTA at WAS (Currently questionable)

PG Isaiah Collier, UTA at WAS

PG/SG Payton Pritchard, BOS vs. POR (Preferred if Tatum and/or J. Brown are out)

SG/SF Bilal Coulibaly, WAS vs. UTA

SG/SF Christian Braun, DEN vs. SAC (Boost if Jokic is out)

PG/SG Donte DiVincenzo, MIN at CHA (Boost if starting)

SG/SF Klay Thompson, DAL at MIL

PG/SG Carlton Carrington, WAS vs. UTA

PG/SG Cason Wallace, OKC at MEM (Preferred if starting)

SG/SF Marcus Smart, WAS vs. UTA

PG Markelle Fultz, SAC at DEN

PG Brandon Williams, DAL at MIL

FanDuel Main Slate Only

SG/SF Malik Beasley, DET at LAC

PG/SS Kris Dunn, LAC vs. DET

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Naz Reid, MIN | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8k | at CHA

I wouldn’t be surprised if Julius Randle (groin/questionable) sits out on the second leg of a back-to-back after missing so much time recently. Rudy Gobert also remains out along with Mike Conley. With those three players off the floor this season, Reid has posted a team-leading +4.43% USG% increase while averaging +8.3 FP per 32 minutes. I’ll still like Reid even if Randle is active tonight because it’s an absolute cakewalk matchup. The Hornets have allowed the 3rd most FPPG to starting centers L20Games, which is the position Reid has been playing the most of with Gobert sidelined. Reid also went for 45.25 DKFP/43.8 FDFP the last time he matched up with the Hornets, and that was while playing just 26 minutes off of the bench.

PF Santi Aldama, MEM | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.3k | vs. OKC

Aldama is listed as questionable today with right calf soreness, but if he sheds that injury tag and is available to play, I’m liking him at these current price points. Aldama would presumably start at power forward in place of the injured Jaren Jackson Jr., and he brings some real upside to the table. Aldama earned a start four days ago and flirted with a triple-double (15/8/11) while playing 37 minutes and supplying 47.0 DKFP/46.1 FDFP. OKC boasts the best DEFRTG in the NBA, but they haven’t been particularly strong versus starting power forwards, ranking 22nd versus the position L5Games. And, once again, there is that massive 253.5 over/under being pinned on this game, so we can expect plenty of upside out of multiple players in this matchup.

SF/PF Brice Sensabaugh, UTA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.3k | at WAS

The Jazz are one of the several teams who will be shorthanded on this slate -- L. Markkanen, W. Kessler, J. Collins, J. Clarkson, and C. Sexton are all out while Keyonte George is listed as questionable. However, Utah also draws a generous matchup with the Wizards (29th in DEFRTG, 4th in pace), so the guys who are active will be in a strong spot. Sensabaugh should be in the starting lineup tonight and in line to play 30+ minutes. He has been hit or miss as a starter, but he’s hoisting up plenty of shots lately and doesn’t need to do much to return value on his $4,300 salary on both sites.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL vs. DAL

SF/PF Jalen Williams, OKC at MEM

SF/SG Jaylen Brown, BOS vs. POR (Currently questionable - Boost if Tatum is out)

SF DeMar DeRozan, SAC at DEN

SF/PF Deni Avdija, POR at BOS

SF/PF Michael Porter Jr., DEN vs. SAC (Boost if Jokic and/or A. Gordon are out)

SF/PF Naji Marshall, DAL at MIL

SF/PF Khris Middleton, WAS vs. UTA

SF/SG Max Christie, DAL at MIL

PF Kyshawn George, WAS vs. UTA

PF/C Al Horford, BOS vs. POR

SF/SG Vince Williams Jr., MEM vs. OKC

SF/PF Gregory “GG” Jackson, MEM vs. OKC (Boost if Aldama is out)

PF Justin Champagnie, WAS vs. UTA

PF Micah Potter, UTA at WAS

FanDuel Main Slate Only

SF/SG Ausar Thompson, DET at LAC

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Jonas Valanciunas, SAC | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.9k | at DEN

Like every other position today, there will be plenty of mid-range/cheaper options to choose from at center. J-Val will be in line for another spot start in place of the injured Domantas Sabonis. He started the previous game against Dallas and supplied a decent performance (33.75 DKFP/35.30 FDFP), but he played just 23 minutes. However, the lack of playing time could be attributed to the blowout factor as the Kings won that game by 24 points and most of the starters, including Valanciunas, saw zero playing time in the fourth quarter. In the game prior, where Sabonis was injured one minute into the game, Valanciunas came off of the bench to play right at 30 minutes. Valanciunas has averaged a stout 1.35 FPPM this season so if he works his way into a 30-minute workload again, he’s a great bet to return value. He also had a start earlier this season against the Nuggets, when he was still with Washington, and erupted for a 20/12/5 stat line, with five blocks, and posted 51.5 DKFP/51.9 FDFP across 32 minutes, so he can clearly excel in this matchup if given the opportunity.

C Kyle Filipowski, UTA | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.9k | at WAS

It’s tough to not like Filipowski in this spot as he is in line for another start due to all of the injured/resting Jazz players. Over his last five games as a starter, Filipowski has averaged 16.3 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 4.3 APG, and 37.9 DKFP/34.6 FDFP per game across 32.5 Min/gm. He’s posting a solid 1.17 FPPM in those starts as well. The matchup also does not get much better as the Wizards have allowed the 2nd most FPPG to starting centers L20Games so Filipowski is a clear value option at his sub-$6k DFS salaries.

Other Centers to Consider

C Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. SAC (Currently questionable)

C Isaiah Hartenstein, OKC at MEM

C Brook Lopez, MIL vs. DAL

C Alexandre Sarr, WAS vs. UTA

C Kai Jones, DAL at MIL (Preferred if starting)

C Zach Edey, MEM vs. OKC

C Luke Kornet, BOS vs. POR

C Oscar Tshiebwe, UTA at WAS

FanDuel Main Slate Only

C Ivica Zubac, LAC vs. DET

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler and Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

🫡 Check out our revamped BetFully Cashback App (iOS only sorry) and get up to $200 cashback for trying new Sportsbook, DFS, horse-racing apps and playing games! ✔️✔️✔️

NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler & Shannon

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

It’s another busy day in the NBA. Eleven games reside on the Wednesday schedule -- DraftKings will exclude the two late games (PHX/OKC and ORL/SAC) from their main slate while FanDuel will feature the full menu. Trades continue to go down with the biggest move today involving the Bucks and Wizards trading Khris Middleton for Kyle Kuzma. The injury report is also a complete fiasco so keep those eyes and ears peeled for all the news that drops throughout the afternoon and evening! Let’s jump into the chaos! Best of luck!

NBA Trade Tracker

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/transactions/trade/

Today’s Key Injuries

Spurs: C. Paul - Questionable, C. Bassey - OUT
Hawks: C. Capela - OUT, B. Bogdanovic - OUT
Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable, D. Lillard - Probable, B. Portis - Probable, K. Middleton - OUT (traded), AJ Johnson - OUT (traded)
Hornets: L. Ball - OUT, J. Okogie - OUT, V. Micic - Questionable, T. Mann - OUT, C. Martin - OUT
Cavs: D. Mitchell - Questionable, D. Wade - OUT, I. Okoro - OUT
Pistons: None
Wizards: K. Kuzma - OUT (traded), A. Sarr - OUT, P. Baldwin Jr. - OUT (traded)
Nets: C. Thomas - OUT, N. Clowney - OUT, D. Sharpe - Questionable, T. Watford - OUT
Grizzlies: D. Bane - OUT, B. Clarke - Questionable, M. Smart - Questionable, J. Konchar - Questionable, V. Williams Jr. - Questionable
Raptors: RJ Barrett - OUT, J. Poeltl - OUT, I. Quickley - OUT, C. Boucher - Questionable
Heat: J. Butler - OUT, D. Robinson - Probable, H. Highsmith - Probable
76ers: J. Embiid - OUT, P. George - Doubtful, A. Drummond - Doubtful, Q. Grimes - Questionable (trade pending), E. Gordon - Questionable, K. Lowry - Questionable
Bulls: L. Ball - OUT, T. Jones - OUT, Z. Collins - OUT, T. Horton-Tucker - OUT, K. Huerter - OUT, D. Terry - Questionable
Timberwolves: J. Randle - OUT, D. DiVincenzo - OUT
Warriors: A. Wiggins - Probable, J. Kuminga - OUT, D. Green - Probable, M. Moody - OUT
Jazz: L. Markkanen - Questionable, C. Sexton - OUT, C. Williams - OUT
Pelicans: B. Ingram - OUT, J. Alvarado - Questionable, D. Theis - OUT (traded)
Nuggets: R. Westbrook - OUT, A. Gordon - Questionable, P. Watson - OUT

Late Game Injury Report (FanDuel Main Slate Only)

Suns: K. Durant - OUT
Thunder: C. Holmgren - OUT, C. Wallace - OUT
Magic: J. Suggs - Doubtful
Kings: None

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG/SG Jamal Murray, DEN | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.3k | vs. NOP

The Nuggets lead the slate with a lofty 124.8 implied team total so the Denver studs will make plenty of sense today. Jamal Murray has been playing very well of late, averaging 1.21 FPPM L5Games and scoring at least 42.0 DKFP/44.0 FDFP in four of those last five games. He has secured 40+ FP in all three previous meetings with the Pelicans this season and, given their 29th-ranked DEFRTG and 29th-ranked DvP versus starting PGs L20Games, Murray’s expectations should be high once again this evening.

PG/SG Isaiah Collier, UTA | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.2k | vs. GSW

Perhaps not the most exciting DFS play, but Isaiah Collier has provided some quality value in recent weeks, routinely returning 6x value at these low-$5k price points. Collier’s minutes and role should be more secure with Collin Sexton (ankle/out) expected to be sidelined for at least a week -- with Sexton only playing three minutes in Monday’s game, Collier went on to supply a point/assist double-double in 32 minutes versus the Pacers. Collier has also shot it significantly better at home this season with a 48.5% FG% versus a 32.6% FG% on the road. This may not be the best match-up but Collier did post a quality 12/6/9 stat line and 31.0 DKFP/28.7 FDFP against the Warriors just last Tuesday, and that was with Sexton active and putting up 30 points of his own.

SG Gradey Dick, TOR | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.6k | vs. MEM

The Raptors will be shorthanded today with RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl, and Immanuel Quickley ruled out. Gradey Dick has seen a notable +4.5% USG% boost with those three players off the court this season along with a +5.8 FP per 32 minutes increase. Both teams in this game rank top 10 in pace, with Memphis ranking 1st in the NBA, so there will be plenty of possessions to go around. If the Raptors (+10.5) hope to pull off the upset, Gradey Dick will likely need to be heavily involved in the scoring.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Cade Cunningham, DET vs. CLE

PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI vs. MIA

PG/SG Anthony Edwards, MIN vs. CHI

SG/SF Trey Murphy III, NOP at DEN

PG Darius Garland, CLE at DET (Boost if D. Mitchell is out)

PG/SG Dyson Daniels, ATL vs. SAS

PG Josh Giddey, CHI at MIN

PG Jordan Poole, WAS at BKN

PG Keyonte George, UTA vs. GSW

SG/SF Bilal Coulibaly, WAS at BKN

SG/SF Christian Braun, DEN vs. NOP

PG/SG Keon Johnson, BKN vs. WAS

PG Ty Jerome, CLE at DET (Preferred if D. Mitchell is out)

PG Jamal Shead, TOR vs. MEM

FanDuel Main Slate Only

SG/SF Devin Booker, PHX at OKC

PG/SG Malik Monk, SAC vs. ORL

PG/SG Cole Anthony, ORL at SAC

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.7k | at TOR

Over the last two games, JJJ has led the Grizzlies in scoring, with 31 and 37 points, as well as usage rate, with 31.8% USG% and 43.8% USG%. One of those games was without Ja Morant, but the other was without Desmond Bane, who will be out once again tonight. For a big man, Jackson is not a very prolific rebounder, but he can rack up multiple blocks and steals on any given night and he’ll draw a strong individual match-up. The Raptors have ranked 27th versus starting PFs L20Games and when these teams met in late December, Jackson dropped 50.25 DKFP/49.2 FDFP. I believe we can get a similar result out of him this evening.

SF/PF Michael Porter Jr., DEN | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.6k | vs. NOP

MPJ has mostly been a solid floor play throughout this season but he erupted for 36 points and 52.75 DKFP/49.4 FDFP against this same Pelicans team on Monday. I believe the Peyton Watson (knee/out) injury is a bit underrated in regards to Porter’s role. Watson has been a key piece off of the Nuggets’ bench this season and, with Watson sidelined the last two games, Porter has played 40+ minutes in each contest. We can’t expect a repeat performance from Monday but I’d say 40+ FP is well within Porter’s wheelhouse tonight.

PF Matas Buzelis, CHI | DK: $4k, FD: $4.2k | at MIN

The Bulls took Buzelis with the 11th overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. With Zach LaVine shipped off to the Kings and none of the recently acquired players (Kevin Huerter, Zach Collins, Tre Jones) ready to make their Chicago debut, Buzelis will have a chance to continue playing in an expanded role. He logged a season-high 31 minutes off of the bench in last night’s game versus the Heat and went on to score 24 points and 32.0 DKFP/31.4 FDFP. Buzelis has averaged a respectable 0.92 FPPM L5Games and, should he flirt with 30 minutes again tonight, he’ll be a great bet to return some nice value.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL at CHA

SF/PG Scottie Barnes, TOR vs. MEM

PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE at DET (Boost if D. Mitchell is out)

PF/C John Collins, UTA vs. GSW

PF/C Naz Reid, MIN vs. CHI

PF/C Guerschon Yabusele, PHI vs. MIA

SF/PF Zaccharie Risacher, ATL vs. SAS

SF/PF Justin Edwards, PHI vs. MIA

SF/SG Corey Kispert, WAS at BKN

SF/PF Gregory Jackson, MEM at TOR

SF/PF Justin Champagnie WAS at BKN (Preferred if starting)

SF/SG Ja’Kobe Walter, TOR vs. MEM (Preferred if starting)

FanDuel Main Slate Only

PF/SF Paolo Banchero, ORL at SAC

SF/SG Grayson Allen, PHX at OKC

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Rudy Gobert, MIN | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.9k | vs. CHI

Gobert continues to play some of his best basketball of the season following a 19/13/3 (plus two blocks and a steal) stat line against the Kings on Monday. He has now scored at least 37.0 DKFP/36.5 FDFP in five of his last six games, including three games of at least 47.25 DKFP/48.1 FDFP in that span. Gobert has averaged +4.6 FP per 32 minutes with Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo (both out) off the floor this season and, as always, the Bulls represent an elite match-up for opposing centers, ranking 29th against the position this season. Gobert’s DFS salaries are on the up and up but there’s still some real upside at his sub-$7k price points.

C Kelly Olynyk, TOR | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4k | vs. MEM

There is some pretty clear value here with Kelly Olynyk expected to start in place of the injured Jakob Poeltl. In his only other start this season, which also came against the Grizzlies in late December, Olynyk averaged 1.20 FPPM and scored 27.75 DKFP/25.50 FDFP. Olynyk only played 23 minutes in that game but I believe he could get closer to 26-28 minutes as the starter tonight. Either way, he won’t have to do much to pay off these bottom-of-the-barrel salaries tonight.

Other Centers to Consider

C Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. NOP

C Victor Wembanyama, SAS at ATL

C Mark Williams, CHA vs. MIL

C Jalen Duren, DET vs. CLE

C Kel’el Ware, MIA at PHI

C Zach Edey, MEM at TOR

C Kevon Looney, GSW at UTA

C Quinten Post, GSW at UTA

FanDuel Main Slate Only

C/PF Domantas Sabonis, SAC vs. ORL

C Isaiah Hartenstein, OKC vs. PHX

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

No picks from me today but, as always, Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!