The 2023 NBA Finals are here and some massive DFS contests will be available to compete in for each game of this series! Today we’ll be diving into some top plays to consider while also covering some single-game strategies surrounding lineup construction. I’ll be posting a two-pick PrizePicks play toward the end of this article for those interested in getting involved in some player prop action!

DFS Note: Due to the discrepancy between the DraftKings and FanDuel single-game formats, these newsletters are more geared toward DraftKings showdown lineup construction. For those unaware, you pick one “captain” player in a lineup who will receive a 1.5x multiplier on their fantasy points, but will also cost 1.5x their base DFS salary. The remaining five “utility” players will receive no such multipliers.

With that said, FanDuel players should feel free to use the recommended plays and information below to help build out single-game lineups that require an “MVP” selection (2x FPTS), “STAR” (1.5x FPTS), “PRO” (1.2x FPTS), and two “utility” plays (no FPTS multiplier). Best of luck!

Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets (-9) | 219 O/U

MIA: 105 Implied Points | DEN: 114 Implied Points

Time: 8:30 p.m. ET | Channel/Streaming: ABC/ESPN+

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: T. Herro - OUT, V. Oladipo - OUT

Score Prediction: Heat - 108, Nuggets - 117

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Nuggets, 4-2 Heat, 3-3 Balanced

Game Preview:

The 2023 NBA Finals have arrived with a match-up between the one-seeded Nuggets in the West and the eighth-seeded Heat from the East. It’s no secret that the Nuggets step into this series as heavy favorites to win the 2023 NBA Championship. Denver heads into game one on 10 days of rest, following their sweep of LeBron’s Lakers, while the Heat are fresh off of a game seven victory over the Celtics just three days ago, avoiding a historical collapse after going up 3-0 in the ECF. However, anyone who is completely counting out the Heat in this series has not been following the 2023 playoffs. Miami was a major underdog in both of their series wins against the Bucks and Celtics, and many experts favored the Knicks over the Heat in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

At the same time, no one can deny that Nikola Jokic has been the best individual player in these playoffs. He’s averaging a ridiculous 29.9/13.3/10.3 triple-double in 15 playoff games and, behind the Joker’s superb play, the Nuggets have lost only three games this entire postseason including a perfect 8-0 record on their home court. Jamal Murray continues to fit his M.O. of rising to the occasion in the playoffs, and he’s been the second part of the “1-2 punch” for the Nugs, averaging 27.7 PPG in the playoffs -- up from 20 PPG in the regular season. Meanwhile, Michael Porter Jr. has oftentimes shown up as the “X-factor” -- crashing the boards and shooting lights out from beyond the arc.

There have been games where Jimmy Butler has almost single-handedly willed the Heat to playoff victories, and he’s clearly the man to watch for Miami in this series. But, with secondary scorers Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo out with injuries for nearly this entire postseason, Miami has had some unsung heroes step up and complement the play of Butler. The undrafted duo of Caleb Martin and Gabe Vincent have come up massive in Miami’s historic run through the playoffs while other unexpected contributors, such as Max Strus and Duncan Robinson, have been a major piece to the puzzle as well.

Maybe this isn’t the Finals match-up that everyone had on their wish list but we should have an entertaining and emotional series ahead of us, nonetheless!

Top Captains and Core Utility Plays

Nikola Jokic (DK: $14,000 | CPT: $21,000)

No one will be shocked by this recommended captain play. You’re devoting a whopping 42% of your DraftKings DFS salary to Jokic if you choose to roll him out at the captain position, but no other player in this entire postseason has had the sort of “floor + ceiling” combo that the Joker possesses. He has netted at least 70.25 DKFP in eight of his last nine playoff games and, as mentioned in the game preview above, he’s averaging an unreal 29.9/13.3/10.3 triple-double during this playoff run (15 games). He’s essentially a lock to record a double-double and receive that 1.5 DKFP bonus (+2.25 DKFP if he’s slotted in at captain) and Caesars sportsbook is giving him favorable -123 odds to record a triple-double which would net an additional 3 DKFP (+4.5 DKFP at CPT). Some experts believe that Erik Spoelstra and the Heat will try to scheme against Jokic to make him less of a facilitator and, instead, try to beat them as more of a scorer. Regardless, Jokic will post a massive fantasy point total one way or the other. Easiest captain play on the board (and likely will be for this entire series), but you are sacrificing a ton of lineup flexibility by taking that route, leaving $5,800 DK per player for the five UTIL spots.

Michael Porter Jr. (DK: $7,600 | CPT: $11,400)

If you’re taking a cheaper route at captain in an effort to jam in more high-upside players in the utility positions, MPJ may be a player to consider. Any person who played NBA DFS during the regular season is well aware of his propensity to completely disappear in games. However, he has been stepping up routinely during the playoffs and has secured at least 33.5 DKFP in six of the Nuggets’ last eight games. He’s averaging 33.8 Min/Gm in the playoffs to go along with 8.0 RPG, 14.6 PPG, 1.3 STL+BLK/gm, and he’s shooting 40.8% from three-point range. With Bam Adebayo having to stick like glue to Jokic, the Heat really do not have a great defensive match-up against the 6’10” Porter. The 6’7” Jimmy Butler will be on MPJ some, but he will also move over to defend Aaron Gordon quite a bit, among others. That leaves Porter with plenty of mismatches and opportunities to shoot over more diminutive defenders.

Utility Plays and Leverage Captain Options

Jamal Murray (DK: $10,800 | CPT: $16,200)

Murray has every reason to be considered as a captain play tonight but he is no doubt a top option no matter where you choose to slot him into lineups. Murray leads all players in this Finals match-up with 21.3 FGA/gm this postseason. He’s pouring in 27.7 PPG in the playoffs while racking up strong peripherals: 6.1 APG, 5.5 RPG, and 1.7 STL/gm. Among 19 players with at least 50 free throw attempts in these playoffs, Murray ranks 1st with a 92.5% FT% (62-for-67). Pairing Murray with Nikola Jokic also makes a massive amount of sense from a correlation standpoint. Jokic has been assisted by Murray 48 times this postseason, and Murray has been assisted by Jokic 36 times.

Caleb Martin (DK: $7,400 | CPT: $11,100)

There is a near zero percent chance that the Heat would be in these NBA Finals without the emergence of Caleb Martin. He most recently got the starting nod in games six and seven of the ECF series against the Celtics, and he responded with monstrous performances of 48.0 and 48.25 DKFP while averaging 43 Min/Gm. While we don’t know the starting lineups yet for tonight, it’d be a surprise to see Martin on the bench to begin game one of the NBA Finals. Martin has been ultra-efficient shooting 56.6% from the field this postseason, including a Steph Curry-esque 43.8% from beyond the arc. So, assuming he continues to start, Martin is looking at massive minutes combined with quality usage and decent peripherals.

Utility Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

Bruce Brown (DK: $6,200 | CPT: $9,300)

Brown is a bit of an uncertainty from a minutes projection perspective. He has played anywhere from 20 minutes to 37 minutes in the Nuggets playoff run. Among bench players, Brown is one of the most dependable guys we can count on in this series and there is some solace in knowing that he’ll, in all likelihood, be guaranteed mid-20s minutes. Brown has shot 63.0% from 2-PT range this postseason and generates some quality offense off of fast breaks. He has also been more effective at home this postseason where he has averaged 13.8 PPG versus 10.4 PPG on the road and, in the event of a Nuggets blowout, Brown would be a leading candidate to benefit from some additional minutes. It would not be a surprise to see him pop up as an optimal utility play at the conclusion of game one.

Duncan Robinson (DK: $4,200 | CPT: $6,300)

Robinson is another player who will come off of the bench in this series, though he’ll be a bit more volatile than someone like Bruce Brown… but he is also one of the cheapest DFS-viable options in this game. To give you an idea of Robinson’s outcomes, here are his per-game DKFP totals (and minutes played) across the series against the Celtics, beginning with game one: 0.0 (7 min.), 21.25 (21 min.), 32.5 (24 min.), 3.75 (11 min.), 37.0 (28 min.), 18.75 (20 min.), and 18.25 (20 min.). To pop off for a big game one performance, he’ll need two things to happen -- one, he’ll need Max Strus to struggle, since they are similar players and Robinson’s playing time is directly correlated with how much Strus plays, and two, he’ll need to get hot from three. Robinson has taken 71.9% of his shots from three-point range this postseason and, by all means, he’s shot extremely well with a 44.6% 3P%. The downside there is that Denver has been one of the best teams at forcing a low 3P% -- Nuggets’ opponents have shot 34.4% from three this season (2nd lowest). It all adds to the “risk vs. reward” in playing a guy like Robinson in DFS lineups.

Jeff Green (DK: $2,200 | CPT: $3,300)

When we’re looking at players priced in the pure punt range, Jeff Green is going to stand out as the safest option among other guys like Kevin Love, Haywood Highsmith, Cody Zeller, and Christian Braun. Green has played double-digit minutes in every postseason game and could play as many as low-20s minutes. In his limited time off the bench, he can score a handful of points, and reel in a few rebounds, and he’s averaging 0.8 BLK+STL/gm in the playoffs. There’s very little ceiling to speak of, but, when we’re discussing a $2,200 player who opens up salary to fit in multiple studs, like Jokic, Butler, or Murray in the same lineup, we just need something besides a straight-up goose egg from Green. Anything close to double-digit fantasy points and Green could easily land in the optimal lineup.

Correlation Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Jeff Green: A Nuggets-heavy “stack” that pairs the two most correlated upside plays -- Jokic & Murray -- together. Punting with Jeff Green at UTIL will leave $5,333/per player for the three remaining UTIL plays. Not ideal, but manageable, and you’re getting a massive chunk of Denver’s production from their two star players. Switching Murray to CPT and Jokic to UTIL (+ keeping Green) also works and opens things up to $5,866/per player for the three remaining UTIL plays.

*Michael Porter Jr., Jimmy Butler, Caleb Martin: The downside with this “stack” will be that it makes playing Jokic virtually nonviable (would leave $1,900/player for the remaining two UTIL plays) but it’s intriguing for GPP. As discussed above, MPJ represents a major mismatch versus the Heat in this series and he has shown a strong 40+ DKFP ceiling in these playoffs. Pairing Butler and Martin together will give you two guys capable of combining for 100+ DKFP, as they did in games six and seven of the ECF.

*Caleb Martin, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray: Whenever possible, I’m pairing Jokic and Murray together any way I can -- their incredible correlation has been discussed above in the player spotlights. That’s made much easier by rolling with a cheaper captain play that still has significant upside. Martin scored 48.0+ DKFP in his last two games in the starting lineup, and he should continue to stick in with the starters for the Finals.

*Jimmy Butler, Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson: This three-man “Heat stack” will be risky, but one way to get different on tonight’s showdown slate. I imagine Butler will be a popular UTIL play, but most folks are going to find the extra $900 in salary to get up to Jokic (CPT: $21k) at captain, instead of Butler (CPT: $20.1k). All three of these Heat players have shown excellent upside at some point in this postseason, and if you’re a believer that Miami will shock everyone by winning game one in Denver, then this stack will gain you major leverage in GPPs.

PrizePicks NBA Finals Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick "Power Play" I’m liking for game one over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Michael Porter Jr. MORE than 8.5 Rebounds + Assists

Bam Adebayo MORE than 2.5 Turnovers

Reminder: PrizePicks also has a “free square” Jokic prop available until tip-off. If Jokic scores one point, it hits! Be sure to take advantage!

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