Written by LineStar Fantasy NBA Writer @GP_Landry

Welcome back NBA! The day is finally here and meaningful basketball games tip off tonight. I’m really excited about this season as there are a ton of story lines to follow and the offseason has certainly been full of drama and anticipation. Can King James turn the Lakers into a contender? We’ve watched him carry the Cavs on his back to three straight finals but now he’s working with a much younger group of guys and is in the much more difficult Western Conference. Speaking of the west, can any one stop Golden State? (hint, no). When will we actually see DeMarcus Cousins on the floor in a Warriors uniform? He’s started some light scrimmaging but he’s coming back from a difficult injury and the Warriors are certainly capable of winning without him. Do we not see him until the stretch run? Are the Celtics the team to beat in the Eastern Conference or do we think Kawhi in Toronto, Giannis in Milwaukee, or a fully healthy Embiid in Philadelphia can make a run? What is Boston even going to look like this season? We’ve got a team that went to the Eastern Conference Finals with a ton of young, developing stars who will now need to take a step back so Hayward and Kyrie can step in. Will all the pieces fit together? What the hell is going on with Jimmy Butler and Minnesota? I’m not even going to begin to dive into that one but it will certainly be another thing worth keeping an eye on. This should be a ton of fun.

As far as this article goes, for those of you who are new to LineStar I’ll be bringing you the Daily Dribble articles Monday through Friday throughout the NBA season. The format for the article is pretty straightforward. We’ll take a high level look at a few games to target based on Vegas implied totals, the spread, and projected pace. Then we’ll have a full injury report highlighting players expected to miss and which players can be upgraded as a result. Finally, we’ll do a position by position breakdown where I will highlight a few options at guard, forward, and center that you should keep an eye on for your rosters. Also, last season I typically did a brief update closer to lock after we received clarity on injury news during the day. Everyone seemed to like those updates, so I'll keep them going as often as possible and I’ll post in chat if an update has been made.

If you haven’t heard the news yet, FanDuel has changed up their scoring format for the NBA season. You will build a roster of nine players, just like always, but at the end of the night, the player on your team with the lowest score will get dropped. The idea is to protect people who have players who are scratched late and result in a zero. I’ll keep my opinions on the new format to myself. I will say that I’m probably going to play pretty sparingly on FanDuel to start the season until I’ve had a chance to see how the format is working out. As a result, I’ll highlight pricing from Yahoo (I’ve typically focused on just DraftKings and FanDuel) for those of you who might want to try another site in addition to DraftKings (remember LineStar has an app for Yahoo so go download it). Alright, with all that out of the way, we have just a two game slate for tonight but all four teams are likely contenders in their respective conferences by the end of the season, so it should be some great basketball. As is always the case when a new season starts for any sport, I recommend playing a little lighter than usual at first. It’s going to take a little time for us to understand what the minutes and rotations are going to look like as well as how any new players will fit into their new teams and how new coaches will run their offenses. Let’s get to it!

Games to Target

Well, there are only two games tonight, so we don’t really have much choice for this section. Let’s quickly take a look at both games:

76ers @ Celtics (BOS -4.5, O/U 208.5)

At first glance, this total struck me as being a little high, which isn't saying much considering it's pretty low to begin with. These are two teams who are strong on the defensive end of the floor and only one of their four regular season games last season went over the current projected total. But we have to remember, this is a new year with new faces, so we can’t put a ton of weight on last season’s results. I’ll likely lean on Vegas a little heavier in the beginning until we feel like we’ve learned enough about these teams to start making our own assumptions. Boston was one of the slower teams in basketball last season at just 97.5 possessions per game while Philadelphia was at 104.1 per game, so this projects as a pace up spot for Boston and pace down spot for Philadelphia. The Celtics will obviously be important to keep an eye on tonight as we’ll get our first look at this team at full strength since there was 6:45 left to play in the first quarter of the first game of the season last year. Everyone is in play tonight since it's only two games but this one is less appealing from a DFS perspective.

Thunder @ Warriors (GSW -12, O/U 224)

The total here is much higher, making this the game to target from a fantasy perspective. The “blowout factor” is in effect as the Warriors are favored by double digits. I'm not going to put much weight on that because 1) it’s hard to predict 2) we don't have other options tonight. On a larger slate where we had other options, I might consider staying away from the team that is setting up to get crushed but tonight, that's just not the case. The big news here is obviously the health of Russell Westbrook, who is looking very doubtful to play. This would push Dennis Schroder into starter’s minutes and match him up with Stephen Curry. There will also be a lot of usage up for grabs assuming Westbrook misses. We'll talk about that more in a minute. This game will carry more ownership tonight, so if you're playing large field tournaments, be sure to keep that in mind.

Injury Report

Guards

Stephen Curry, GSW (DK: $8.6K, FD: $9.6K, Yahoo: $41)

No surprise here. Curry is in a monster spot to open the season. The Warriors have far and away the highest implied total of the night at 118 and he will get a massive matchup upgrade with Russell Westbrook expected to miss and Dennis Schroder likely filling in as the starting point guard. Westbrook ranked 10th out of 81 point guards last season in DRPM while Schroder ranked 76th at -2.63. Curry finished the season sixth in the league in points per game at 26.4 while averaging the second most three pointers per game at 9.8 and finishing with a very impressive 42.3% of three pointers made. Only Curry's teammate, Klay Thompson, had a higher percentage of three pointers made (44%) among qualified players but that was with over two fewer attempted per game. As far as how the usage and rotation shakes out, there's nothing new to see here for the moment. The big offseason acquisition for the Warriors was the signing of DeMarcus Cousins but we aren't expecting to see him play in a game for a while, so we can continue to lean on last season to understand how the usage works for this team. With the regular starters on the floor last year, Curry had an outstanding 31.2% usage rate, basically right in line with Kevin Durant, and then Thompson filling in behind them. Curry has a tremendous floor/ceiling combination in this spot and feels a bit under priced, especially on DraftKings.

Terry Rozier, BOS (DK: $4.5K, FD: $4.1.K, Yahoo: $22)

I'm really excited about Boston this season, especially being from the area, but this is not the best spot for them tonight. The 76ers ranked third in the league last year in defensive rating, and as I mentioned earlier, these games typically went under the total. In addition, with Boston now back at full-strength, I want to take a bit of a "wait and see" approach with the starters. Guys like Tatum and Brown, who commanded a high usage percentage last season, are going to have to take a step back with Irving and Hayward now being inserted into the starting lineup. We know what Hayward and Irving are capable of but with both of them coming back from injuries and the Celtics having a deep bench, it wouldn't surprise me to even see Irving get eased in a little more at first (we already know Hayward will be limited to 25 minutes). With that said, we can't just completely cross a team off our list tonight on only a two game slate, so the guys I'm looking at for Boston today are mainly the reserves. Rozier will likely be the first guy off the bench throughout the season (we saw this in the preseason a little already) and should pick up some extra minutes early on with Hayward working through his minutes restriction. This is a guy priced like a bench player but has the talent to be a starter for many of the teams in the NBA. After not reaching an extension with Boston prior to Monday's deadline, the motivation for Rozier to perform well will only increase as he's looking to get his first big pay day after the end of this season. He's going to get plenty of minutes and should have an easier time finding fantasy production as a member of the second unit.

Forwards

Paul George, OKC (DK: $8K, FD: $9K, Yahoo: $35)

With Westbrook (and his 34% usage rate) expected to miss the game today, we should have interest in basically every other member of the Thunder, as they'll see big boosts with so much production that will need to be spread around. George, obviously, is the biggest beneficiary of this, as he'll see over a 9% usage bump with Westbrook off the floor and Carmelo Anthony on another team now. The bump could be even slightly higher if Stephen Adams were also to miss this game, though he doesn't command much to begin with, so I'm not overly worried about that. Regardless, Westbrook's absence alone puts George into elite usage territory, at nearly 40%, yet he's not priced to factor this in. In their four meetings last season, George played 40, 36, 33, and 37 minutes and had 50, 62, 20, and 33 fantasy points (DraftKings scoring) respectively. He was part of the perfect lineup in that second game, back on February 6th, where he put up 38 points and five rebounds. All of this was with Westbrook playing a full compliment of minutes himself. The sky is the limit for George tonight as the clear number one option in this offense and the floor is extremely high as well. Assuming Westbrook does miss (it's still not confirmed), George is a virtual must-play on this slate.

Dario Saric, PHI (DK: $5.5K, FD: $6.4K, Yahoo: $25)

Similar to the Celtics, I'm not in love with this spot for Philadelphia either but we don't have much choice on a two game slate. Only two teams ranked higher than the 76ers in defensive efficiency last season. The Utah Jazz was one and this Celtics team was the other. They were particularly stout against power forwards where they finished third in DRPM and fifth in fantasy points allowed to the position. The key here, however, is the likely role that Saric will need to play tonight.

For those of you who are new to NBA DFS, let me provide you with one simple truth to start off this season. Minutes trump everything. You can't score fantasy points if you don't get the minutes. Even in a bad matchup, a player who is not priced like a starter but is playing starter's minutes is worth a look in all formats. That's exactly what we have here tonight. Two of the newest additions to the 76ers, Wilson Chandler and Mike Muscala, are both expected to be out tonight, which would lock Saric into 30+ minutes of playing time at a very affordable price tag. Last season, in 29.6 minutes per game, he averaged 14.6 points and 6.7 rebounds. This resulted in 27.6 fantasy points per game (0.93 FP/Min) which would be a solid return on his current price tag, particularly on DraftKings. Add in the extra minutes he should pick up tonight and he's another option I'm viewing as a virtual "must play," assuming that Muscala does miss this game (Chandler has already been ruled out). Update: Muscala is now out as well.

Centers

Joel Embiid, PHI (DK: $8.8K, FD: $10.4K, Yahoo: $41)

What's a two game slate that includes the 76ers if we don't discuss the legend that is Joel Embiid? After spending his summer trolling unsuspecting pickup game players at his local outdoor courts and gyms, Embiid is ready to pick up where he left off last season. This is shaping up to be his biggest year yet, which is pretty scary to think about considering what we've already seen him do. After a beginning to his career that was plagued by limitations and injuries, Embiid is wrapping up his first offseason without any workout restrictions. The public seems to be taking notice of this as he continues to be a popular MVP pick with the fifth most money put down on him in Vegas despite the eighth best odds (+1500). Despite the Celtics finishing second in both DRPM and fantasy points allowed to centers last season, Embiid still managed to put up 50 or more fantasy points (DraftKings scoring) in five of the eight games he played against them. One of those games, very early in the season last year, was when Embiid was on a strict minutes limit. So if we throw that one out, it was really five of seven games with 50 or more fantasy points. He's a rare commodity in the NBA these days as a center who commands a high usage rate on his team. With the rest of the field likely taking the savings on Nerlens Noel tonight (who we will talk about next) this could be an interesting pivot to pay up for Embiid and then find savings elsewhere.

Nerlens Noel, OKC (DK: $3.6K, FD: $4K, Yahoo: $10)

Are you as surprised as I am about how many injuries we are already having to factor in for the first night of the season? Not only that but it's only a two-game slate! What did these guys do during the offseason? Here's another situation we'll need to keep an eye on. Steven Adams is currently listed as questionable and a game time decision for tonight against the Warriors due to lower back stiffness. If he's out, Noel would be pushed into starter's minutes at basically minimum salary on all three sites. Noel is traditionally a solid per minute producer, averaging 16.4 FP/Game in only 15.7 minutes last season, so you can understand why the DFS community is licking its chops for the possibility of 25+ minutes for Noel at these prices. It's not a great matchup as the Warriors are extremely tough defensively down low with Draymond Green, but again, the potential minutes here would be too good to ignore. If Adams ends up playing, this is a stay away for me, as we didn't see Noel play any minutes alongside Adams during the preseason. So he'll take a clear backseat in that scenario, which makes him hard to trust. You could throw a dart, especially on a two-game slate, and hope he gets enough minutes to make it worth it, but the floor is really low in that case.

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