Written by LineStar Fantasy NBA Writer @GP_Landry 

Day two brings us a full slate with eleven games. We have got a couple of games with high totals that really stand out in Houston and LA and then a whole bunch of games with implied totals that are middle of the pack between 207 and 215. Surprisingly, we also have quite a bit of injury news, especially in Miami and Atlanta. Be sure to keep an eye on this as it could really open up some value. Some of these teams have injury reports that would make you think that this is the last game of the season and not the first game of the season. As I said in yesterday's article, take it easy with your bankroll for the first couple of weeks. There is a ton of uncertainty, players on new teams, new coaches with new systems, etc. We need to give ourselves some time to let the rotations shake out and see how these guys work together before we can invest with any kind of confidence. Let's get to work on this slate.

Games to Target

Several more games to choose from tonight but there are two that are standing out above the rest:

Pelicans @ Rockets (HOU - 7.5, O/U 228)

This game features the highest total of the night with a spread that is close enough to suggest it will be fairly competitive. The Pelicans were the fastest team in the NBA last year at 102.8 possessions per game while Houston was middle of the pack. I have interest in both sides, though Houston is definitely more appealing. The Pelicans have stressed how they want to be even faster this season, yet they are also weak on the defensive end of the floor, ranking 23rd in total fantasy points allowed and 22nd in efficiency. That will only get worse this season with the addition of Elfrid Payton who ranked 65 out of 81 point guards last year in DRPM at -2.06. On the other side, Houston is a pretty strong team defensively, so while there are certainly intriguing pieces from New Orleans, none of them are guys I'm going to go out of my way to force into lineups.

Nuggets @ Clippers (DEN -1, O/U 226)

Late hammer anyone? One of the last games of the day features another very high total at 226 and a spread of just one point, meaning this should be a nice back and forth affair between these two teams. There's not a huge pace differential here as the Clippers were seventh in pace last season and the Nuggets were 15th, so it should play slightly faster than usual for Denver. The Nuggets are infamous for always playing poor defense, ranking 28th last season in total fantasy points allowed. The Clippers are better but still in the lower half of the league allowing the 19th most fantasy points. This will be another good game to get some exposure to on this slate.

Injury Report

Guards

James Harden, HOU (DK: $11.5K, FD: $11.7K, Yahoo: $52)

There are quite a few studs on this slate today but we are looking at, in my opinion, the top overall play on the board tonight. We already talked about the game environment itself, as the Rockets have the highest implied total on the slate by nearly five points and this should be a pace up game. Normally, the home team is able to dictate the pace more but New Orleans is such a fast team that I still think this winds up being faster than usual for the Rockets today. It's an outstanding matchup as the Pelicans ranked 25th last season in fantasy points allowed and defensive efficiency to shooting guards. Jrue Holiday, oddly enough considering how many fantasy points they allowed to the position, was one of the best on ball defenders in basketball last season, ranking fourth among guards with a DRPM of 2.10. But against Harden, I'm not putting any stock into that. He's matchup proof. Perhaps Holiday makes a defensive play on him here or there but it's not going to have any major impact. Last season, in four matchups, Harden had 67, 52, 64, and 48 fantasy points (DraftKings scoring). The last game was a blowout and Harden played less than 30 minutes. There's really not much analysis needed here. Harden had one of the highest usage rates in the league last season at 33.8%, he's on the team with the highest implied total tonight, and it's a pace up game. Fire him up in all formats.

Dennis Smith, DAL (DK: $7K, FD: $6.6K, Yahoo: $27)

I'm loving this spot for the new look Mavericks tonight against one of the worst defenses in all of basketball last season. The Suns ranked 28th in fantasy points allowed to point guards, allowing an average of 34.9 fantasy points per game to the position. In his only start against them last season, Smith had 33 DraftKings points including 17 points, six assists, and four rebounds. He earned a spot in the perfect lineup that night. As an added bonus, Phoenix was one of the fastest teams in the league last season, averaging 101.2 possessions, which was second behind only the Pelicans. A fast team that can't play defense means stack the team they are facing. It's worth noting that Isaiah Canaan, who was recently named the starting point guard for the Suns, is at least a better defender than Elfrid Payton was last season, so Phoenix may improve slightly against point guards but it's definitely not enough to scare me away. I should also mention that while the Suns played at one of the fastest paces in the league last season, they played at one of the slowest paces during the preseason. I'm not going to put a ton of weight on preseason but it wouldn't shock me to see them try and slow it down a little more this year and make them a less appealing team to use players against. This is all part of the guesswork that goes into early season NBA DFS. Even with those question marks, this shapes up as a great matchup for Smith and he's my favorite mid-tier point guard on this slate.

Trey Burke, NYK (DK: $5.6K, FD: $4.9K, Yahoo: $17)

Burke really didn't make an impact until the second half of the season last year but once he got going, he was one of the hottest buys in fantasy basketball for a long stretch at the end of the year. The Knicks are, well, still the Knicks. A total mess. For now, we know they will be without Porzingis possibly for the entire season, which hasn't been ruled out yet. This will continue to open up usage for other members of this team (similar to last year). The current projected starting lineup only spent a total of 12 minutes on the floor together at the same time last season, so we are only working with a small sample size, but it's encouraging to see that Burke saw the highest usage bump in that group at 5.6% with Kanter right behind him at 5.5%. That's about what I was expected as those two guys will likely be players we can target on this team in DFS throughout the season. Burke carries a solid 25.2% usage rate overall, so that bump would put him near the elite category around 30%. His price currently doesn't reflect a 30% usage rate. On top of all that, it's a great matchup against an Atlanta team that ranked 30th in fantasy points allowed to the position last season and is in a full rebuild this year. If I'm paying down at guard today this is where I will end up.

Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL (DK: $10.9K, FD: $12K, Yahoo: $53)

The game between the Bucks and Hornets didn't quite make my list of games to target but it was a close third. This is definitely a positive game environment with a solid total that is approaching a 220 O/U and a spread of only two, suggesting it should stay competitive throughout. This is shaping up to be a career year for the only 23 year old who averaged a double-double last season with 26.9 points and 10 rebounds per game. Something that stood out to me in the preseason was he appears to be taking more three point attempts than in the past. Last year, he attempted only 1.9 per game and this year, in the preseason, he's attempted 3.3, including five in their last game and he shot 40%. It's doesn't look like a huge lift on paper but any possibility of his ceiling increasing is worth noting. He just finished off the preseason with a triple-double including 32 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists along with three steals and a block. Last year, in three games against the Hornets, he had 63, 46, and 45 fantasy points. He'll stuff the stat sheet from all angles and he's in the conversation as one of the top overall plays on the slate (though I would put him behind Harden). He's a little expensive on FanDuel tonight ($300 more than Harden) and even Yahoo ($1 more than Harden) but he's a great option on DraftKings at $600 less.

Jimmy Butler, MIN (DK: $6.7K, FD: $9.4K, Yahoo: $34)

Ugh, I hate you DraftKings. Not really, but I told myself I was going to avoid this situation at the beginning of the season but there's no way we can't have interest in Butler at this price. Is he even going to show up at the arena tonight? I honestly don't know so I would be sure whatever you do have a pivot plan ready. Since DraftKings is the only site I would play him on tonight and he has forward eligibility, I'm putting him in this section. But just keep in mind, if you want to use him on other sites tonight, he'll be a guard. The one thing we know for sure about Butler is he's angry. This feels like an "I told you so" situation where he will come out on fire, plays as hard as he can, and really shows the Timberwolves that they need him as he allegedly yelled at ownership during that mysterious practice near the end of the preseason. The ceiling here is enormous at this price but the floor is literally something along the lines of him getting into a fight with his own team and being ejected. Despite the price, I'm probably staying away in cash, but he needs to be considered for tournaments, assuming the uncertainty around the situation will keep the ownership relatively reasonable.

Caris LeVert, BKN (DK: $5.8K, FD: $6K, Yahoo: $17)

I think this could be a breakout year for LeVert and I want to jump on the train before the rest of the field really catches on. We get a good opportunity tonight as the Nets are expected to be without Shabazz Napier and Allen Crabbe among others, which would open up some minutes for LeVert as well as D'Angelo Russell. Last season, despite mostly coming off the bench, LeVert averaged 26.2 minutes per game and 25.1 fantasy points per game, hovering right around that one fantasy point per minute bench mark we are often looking for. He should play 30 or more minutes in this spot tonight, making him under priced for his role. The sample size is small (just over 20 minutes) but in the lineup that is expected to start tonight, LeVert saw a boost of just a little over eight fantasy points per game. He has a very respectable 22.7% usage rate and as long as he's getting starter's minutes (and is still priced like a bench player) he represents excellent value for our lineups.

Centers

Andre Drummond, DET (DK: $9.5K, FD: $10.2K, Yahoo: $47)

I've gone back and forth a few times between Drummond and Jokic for the high priced center I want to use on this slate. On the one hand, Jokic is in an excellent game environment, which we talked about earlier with that high 226 O/U and only a 1.5 point spread. What's standing out to me here though is the matchup. On paper, the Clippers allowed 38.1 fantasy points per game to opposing centers, which ranked 26th in the league. But the loss of DeAndre Jordan and the addition of Marcin Gortat actually presents a downgrade to Jokic's matchup. Jordan ranked 28th among centers in DRPM last season white Gortat ranked 12th. Drummond, on the other hand, has a more appealing matchup against the Nets who ranked 30th in the league in fantasy points allowed to centers, allowing 34.7 fantasy points per game and 10.6 rebounds per game. In four meetings last season, he went over 60 fantasy points twice and he looked really good in the preseason already this year. He should easily land in double-double territory tonight and I feel better about his floor in this spot than I do about Jokic.

Rudy Gobert, UTA (DK: $7.8K, FD: $8.2K, Yahoo: $30)

Arguably the best defender in basketball, Gobert will start the season out against a Kings team that he had excellent results against last season. In two games, he put up a double-double in each with 12 and 13 rebounds, resulting in 47 fantasy points both times. Not typically known for his offense, he could get a few extra opportunities on that end of the floor tonight in a really positive matchup with Willie Cauley-Stein who ranked 34th out of 52 centers in DRPM last season. The Kings finished 24th last season in fantasy points allowed and 27th in defensive efficiency against centers. Gobert averaged 32.4 minutes per game last year and 35.8 fantasy points per game, giving him an excellent 1.11 FP/Min ratio. He's another guy that will stuff that stat sheet from all angles including rebounds and blocks, even if he doesn't put up a ton of points.

Alex Len, ATL (DK: $5.6K, FD: $5.1K, Yahoo: $13)

If this is any indication of how this NBA season is going to go, then we are all in serious trouble. The fact that I'm considering Alex Len, in the first game of the season, just spells doom. If you've never read my NBA articles before, I'll save you from the long rant. Essentially, Len is a complete roller coaster ride. The ceiling is massive but the floor doesn't exist. It's the type of volatility we aren't typically used to in NBA DFS and it will be exaggerated even further being on a new team, with a bunch of new faces, and a new coach. But if you're willing to gamble and he comes through, you could find yourself in excellent position to leap the field. He averaged 20.2 minutes per game last season with the Suns and 22.1 fantasy points per game, making him a solid 1.09 FP/Min player. But just remember that it comes with a lot of spiked games with 35+ fantasy points and a lot of duds with 15 fantasy points or less. Regardless of the ups and downs, we have to at least consider him tonight as he should get all the minutes he can handle with both Dwayne Dedmon and John Collins out for the game. You absolutely can't touch him in cash but he's an ideal tournament target in this spot tonight.

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