Written by LineStar Fantasy NBA Writer @GP_Landry 

Today brings us only three games, which is less than exciting from a DFS perspective but it sets the stage for the "LeBron in Los Angeles" era to begin. We also have the Wizards, Bulls, and Blazers playing in their season openers tonight. The 76ers will play their second game of the season after having last night off following their opening night loss to Boston on Tuesday. Miami will be our first team of the season on a back to back, as they played in Orlando last night and travel to Washington this evening. Plenty of injuries to keep an eye on even on a small slate, so make sure you are paying attention right up until lock.

I've been getting some questions about freeroll contests like we did during the MLB season, so we are going to kick those off for NBA starting with tomorrow's larger Friday slate. Freerolls will be on DraftKings only as their contests allow up to 200 people. We'll have daily prizes for the top three finishers and I'll post the link to each contest right here in the newsletter each day. Make sure to look out for that.

Games to Target

Only three games tonight so let's take a high level look at each before we dive into specific players.

Chicago @ Philadelphia (PHI -11, 215 O/U)

This sets up nicely for the 76ers after a tough first game of the season against a really good defensive team on the road in Boston. Today, they get the complete opposite, facing the Bulls at home who were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA last season with their 110.4 defensive rating. I expect Philadelphia to bounce back in a big way and for obvious reasons, they are my favorite team to target tonight. The Bulls ranked 27th in fantasy points allowed and 29th in defensive efficiency last season. The entire 76ers lineup is in play. On the Chicago side, this is a challenging matchup against a strong defensive team that was third in defensive rating last season at 103.8. On a larger slate, I'd be looking to avoid them but on a small slate, we could find some value here with some of their injuries.

Heat @ Wizards (WAS -5, 212 O/U)

This should be a slower paced game against two teams who averaged under 98 possessions per game last year and were in the top half of the league in team defense. Washington ranked fourth in total fantasy points allowed while Miami was 12th. It's worth nothing this is the second night of a back to back for Miami after playing in Orlando last night but considering it's the second game of the season, I'm not overly concerned about that. This is another game that I probably wouldn't have much interest in on a normal sized slate but we'll have to look for some gems on this small three game slate.

Lakers @ Blazers (POR -3.5, 222 O/U)

I'm going to be watching the Lakers' rotation closely tonight to see how minutes and usage shape up behind James. We got a sneak preview in the preseason but it's tough to really trust that with such a small sample size. I'm expecting a lot of small ball where McGee will start and then they'll sub him out for smaller and quicker options. Kuzma should be the first guy off the bench but we'll have to wait and see. The Blazers return the same starting five from last season and only added a couple of lower level players on the bench, which should allow us to predict the usage and minutes with confidence. Portland was one of the better defensive teams in the league last season which should carry over to this year with their nearly identical roster. The Lakers were one of the worst teams on defense but have a completely new look now, so we'll be guessing a little more from a matchup perspective. This is the most appealing game (and will be the most popular) from a DFS perspective tonight.

Injury Report

Guards

Damian Lillard, POR (DK: $8.6K, FD: $9.9K, Yahoo: $38)

Not that Lillard needs any help, but Rondo starting for the Lakers is a nice upgrade to his already positive matchup. Last season, the Lakers allowed 36.2 fantasy points per game to point guards with Lonzo Ball as their starter. Ball was third among point guards with a 2.31 DRPM. Rondo ranked 37th with a -0.37 DRPM. Lillard finished tied for fourth in the league last season in both minutes per game with 36.6 and points scored with 26.9. He was 12th in assists per game at 6.6. All of this resulted in a solid 1.20 fantasy points per minute rate. If we run the usage matrix tool from the last two seasons, Lillard leads the team with a 30.6% usage rate. We can expect the offensive production on this team to continue to run through him. In his last game against the Lakers he finished with 39 points including 48% shooting and 54.5% from three point range. He added five rebounds and six assists, resulting in 55 fantasy points that night. Lillard has the highest usage rate among all the available point guards tonight with the best matchup in the game with the highest total. For those of you who play on Yahoo, Lillard is significantly cheaper than both Simmons and Wall on that site. He's my favorite high priced option at this position.

JJ Redick, PHI (DK: $5.1K, FD: $5.4K, Yahoo: $19)

I was surprised that Coach Brown elected to start Fultz over Reddick. Perhaps it was a way of trying to boost their young player's confidence. Either way, Fultz ended up playing 24 minutes compared to Reddick's 30 minutes, so it didn't really have any negative impact on his ability to put up fantasy production. If anything, this could be viewed as a positive with Reddick commanding more usage as part of the second unit (it's worth noting that Reddick started the second half of the game against Boston). As we talked about earlier, Chicago was one of the worst defensive teams in basketball last season and they were particularly bad against shooting guards, ranking 28th in fantasy points allowed. Redick is not a great per minute fantasy producer so he can be tough to trust in cash but when his three point shot is falling, he has a great ceiling for tournaments. Philadelphia shot a pathetic 5-26 from three point range on opening night so look for them to try and get Redick going early. He should go overlooked, even on the small slate, when he's coming off the bench even though he's still locked into 30 minutes.

Forwards

LeBron James, LAL (DK: $10.8K, FD: $11.7K, Yahoo: $59)

This is probably the only time all season we'll get him under $11K on DraftKings and under $12K on FanDuel. He's almost guaranteed to be at least 80% owned in tournaments tonight but are you really going to be the guy who fades the King on a three game slate? My strategy in these situations is to always lock in the obvious raw points, regardless of the ownership, and look for other places to pivot. Fading players strictly because they will be "high owned" is not going to be a profitable decision for you over time. James led the league in minutes per game last year (36.9), was third in points scored (27.5), and third in assists (9.1). He averaged 54.2 fantasy points per game, which is a whopping 1.47 fantasy points per minute. I will note that it's not the best matchup in the world, as he'll be up against Aminu who finished 7th last season in DRPM at 2.37 and the Blazers were first in fantasy points allowed to the power forward position over the final month of the season. But this is LeBron, so matchups really don't matter. He's going to get his on any given night. He put up 71 fantasy points against the Blazers in their last meeting. To put this price in perspective, Antetokounmpo was more expensive on both DraftKings and FanDuel last night and we liked him. Don't get cute. Lock him in.

Dario Saric, PHI (DK: $5.5K, FD: $5.9K, Yahoo: $25)

He was a massive let down on opening night but I'm not going to say that it totally surprised me. I loved him and rostered him, don't get me wrong, but it was a difficult matchup against a tough Boston team. He got into foul trouble early and just wasn't able to play the minutes we were expecting. The price and the potential for playing time was too good to ignore and those are the risks we take. My hope is that people will see the box score and stay away from him tonight, because I'm planning to go right back to the well here. We have the exact same situation as we did on Tuesday but a better matchup, so if we liked him Tuesday night, we almost have to like him today. Wilson Chandler is still out and Mike Muscala is doubtful, which will push Saric into the starting lineup again and lock him into 30+ minutes, assuming he stays out of foul trouble. He should have an easier time with that against the Bulls who were 27th in defensive efficiency against power forwards last season. Bobby Portis, who is expected to get the start tonight, ranked 89th out of 90 power forwards in DRPM last season with a -2.09. Go ahead and read that last sentence again real quick. I'll wait. The ceiling on Saric is massive, as he scored over 50 fantasy points on multiple occasions last season. And the floor is pretty much what we saw in the last game, so it's not a huge risk considering his price. He had over 40 fantasy points in two of three games against the Bulls last season. The 76ers have the highest implied total of the night and Saric is one of my favorite plays on the board today.

Centers

Joel Embiid, PHI (DK: $9.7K, FD: $10.8K, Yahoo: $41)

Quite the price increase here, especially on DraftKings where he's up $900 from Tuesday night but it will still be worth it in a near perfect spot. The Bulls allowed 36.1 fantasy points per game to opposing centers last season, which ranked 28th in the league. They also allowed 10.6 rebounds per game, so Embiid is pretty much a lock for a double-double tonight. In two games against Chicago last season he had 36 and 70 fantasy points, which gives us a pretty good idea of the range of outcomes in this matchup. Wendell Carter Jr. has earned the starting role for the Bulls and I expect the young rookie to have a difficult time in his first regular season NBA game in arguably the worst matchup possible. He was a strong defender at Duke and his scouting reports suggest he has the ability to be an elite rim protector but this is a tough ask against Embiid in his first game. Carter should have an impact on improving the Bulls' defense as the season progresses but for now, it's not a matchup I'm worried about. The one downside here is the blowout factor, as the 76ers are currently favored by double-digits. If they get out to a big lead it's possible Embiid would get some extra rest down the stretch but chances are, if that happens, it will be because he already had a solid night and it wouldn't kill your lineups. It also helps that Philadelphia was off last night and will be off again tomorrow night. Locking in James and Embiid on DraftKings leaves you $4.9K per position to work with. There should be more than enough value on this slate to make that work.

Bam Adebayo, MIA (DK: $4.9K, FD: $4.3K, Yahoo: $10)

Adebayo is shaping up as one of my favorite value options on the night. He had a solid opening game last night with nine points, eight rebounds, two assists and a steal, leading to 24 fantasy points in 22 minutes of action, which was a solid return on his price. That price stayed relatively flat on all three sites, decreasing by $100 on DraftKings, increasing by only $200 on FanDuel, and staying the same on Yahoo (minimum salary). The 22 minutes was encouraging and he saw time on the floor with both Olynyk and Whiteside. With James Johnson set to miss again tonight, Adebayo should see at least the same amount of minutes as last night, with potential room for more. Whiteside played 34 minutes last night and the Heat are on the second night of a back to back. This is speculation on my part but the Heat have always been very protective of Whiteside, so it wouldn't be a surprise at all to see him limited, even though it's only the second game of the season. This gives Adebayo the potential for additional upside if he gets increased run. The Wizards were solid defensively against the center position last season, ranking 8th in fantasy points allowed but we have to remember that part of the reason for this success was the play of Marcin Gortat, who is now a member of the Clippers. Gortat ranked 12th in DRPM among centers at 2.05. If Howard plays tonight, he was middle of the pack last season ranking 19th at 1.75. If Howard misses, then Ian Mahinmi would draw the start and he would be a further downgrade after ranking 26th last season at 1.45. Neither of the Wizards options are terrible defensively but they are definitely a downgrade compared to Gortat. Adebayo represents some nice value tonight with a higher ceiling than usual if we assume Whiteside won't play a full amount of minutes.

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