Written by LineStar Fantasy NBA Writer @GP_Landry 

5pm EST Update:

Relatively quiet news day on this Monday afternoon but we have most of the information we are looking for now:

Dallas

• Harrison Barnes is out for at least two more games so Dorian Finney-Smith will start tonight

• Devin Harris is out so look for Barea and Brunson to get additional run

Golden State

• Shaun Livingston is out so Quinn Cook will back up Curry. Nothing fantasy relevant here

Indiana

• Domantas Sabonis will play which takes me off of Myles Turner and Kyle O’Quinn

• TJ Leaf is out but so we could see a few extra minutes for Bojan Bogdanovic but this isn’t a huge bump with Sabonis back in the mix   

LA Lakers 

• Lonzo Ball will start at point guard and Kyle Kuzma will start at small forward

• Josh Hart should still see increased run but the minutes are more secure for Ball and Kuzma

Memphis

• Marc Gasol is probable

• Kyle Anderson is still questionable with an illness but either way I’m not interested in this situation

Phoenix

• Troy Daniels is “available to play” which doesn’t mean he’ll make it on to the court. We’ll probably see some extra minutes for Jamal Crawford but there’s nothing to see here

Toronto

• Delon Wright is out which puts Fred VanFleet in the mix as a value play at guard

That’s it for your 5pm EST update. There isn’t really anything else we are waiting on at this point so you should have the info that you need (barring any late scratches which can ALWAYS happen) to start setting your lineups now.

Hope you all had a great weekend! I apologize for not getting an article posted on Friday. My daughter had an allergic reaction on Thursday night and we ended up spending the night in the emergency room. She's four years old and autistic, so she doesn't communicate well, and it makes it incredibly difficult to understand what's bothering her in those situations. It was a scary night to say the least but she's okay now, although we are still trying to figure out what happened. Thanks to all of you who checked in on me via chat and Twitter it's much appreciated.

Today starts a new week and we have a nine-game slate to breakdown for tonight. Each of these teams has now had two or three games under their belt, so we are starting to see how rotations are going to look, but it's still too early to have complete confidence with such a small sample size. I would continue to encourage you to scale back how much you play for at least another week, as there is still more guesswork involved than we'd like at this stage of the season. What stood out to me at first glance tonight is we have four games with a double digit spread and a fifth that is currently at -9.5. You don't need to avoid these games entirely (and with so many tonight you likely won't be able to) but just think through how this could have an impact from a fantasy perspective. For example, the Warriors are the largest favorites on the board tonight at -13 and they are the only team today on the second night of a back to back. It wouldn't shock me if one or more of their starters gets the night off.

Games to Target

With the blowout factor in play in so many games tonight, my interest is focused on a few of these games that have similar totals but much closer spreads and should remain competitive throughout the game:

Pacers @ Timberwolves (MIN -2.5, 225 O/U)

The 2-1 Pacers visit the 1-2 Timberwolves for a matchup that currently has the fourth highest total but the closest spread at just -2.5. In their three games so far, Minnesota has played at the 7th fastest pace with 104.5 possessions (they were 22nd last season) while Indiana has been one of the slowest teams with 100.1 possessions per game, which ranks 27th (they were 21st last year.) Indiana is solid on the defensive side, currently ranking 7th in defensive rating (they were 12th last season) while Minnesota continues to be one of the worst defensive teams, ranking 26th after ranking 25th last season. The Timberwolves have averaged 125 points per game so far this season, which is second, and the Pacers have averaged 114 points per game, which is 14th. A pace-up spot against a bad defensive team has me really interested in the Indiana side.

Wizards @ Blazers (POR -4.5, 226 O/U)

Another game with a very high total and a spread that suggests this should be a close contest. Both teams have played two games and both teams are playing at a quick pace so far. The Blazers are tied for 10th with 104.25 possessions per game and the Wizards are tied for 12th with 103.75. Both teams are middle of the pack in defensive rating (Blazers 13th and Wizards 17th) while the Blazers have been one of the highest scoring teams in basketball so far with 124.5 points per game (3rd) and the Wizards have averaged 112.5 per game (17th). The Wizards so far have avoided turnovers with only 12.5 per game but they are among the worst rebounding teams in the league and are allowing 22 second chance points per game, which is worst in the NBA. With Dwight Howard out tonight (he did not travel with the team) and the Blazers currently ranking 7th in rebounding, I don't expect this trend to change.

Bulls @ Mavericks (DAL -5, 228.5 O/U)

The rule changes in the NBA this year have really done a number on scoring. Pace of play is faster than ever and Vegas is scrambling to catch up, as evidenced but the very high total in this game. Normally I would have pegged this as a snooze-fest but here we are. Both teams are playing well above their per game average in pace last season with the Bulls currently ranked 12th at 103.5 possessions and the Mavericks ranked 21st at 102.25 possessions. Neither team is playing much defense either, with Chicago ranked 26th in defensive rating and allowing the 24th most opponent points per game while Dallas is dead last in defensive rating and is allowing the 29th most opponent points per game. Again, small sample sizes here, but based on this information and the Vegas total, this game has some sneaky fantasy goodness.

Injury Report

Guards

Victor Oladipo, IND (DK: $8.2K, FD: $8.5K, Yahoo: $36)

Despite being a complete force on offense, Jimmy Butler has uncharacteristically done very little on defense so far this season, despite typically being known as one of the better defenders in the league. This improves the outlook for Oladipo in a pace up spot against the Timberwolves who are 26th in opponent points per game. He's a steady contributor, averaging 34.3 minutes and 44.2 fantasy points per game over his last 20 (1.29 fantasy points per minute). In addition to scoring, the extra possessions should give Oladipo a chance to rack up some defensive statistics as well. Oladipo was second at the shooting guard position last season with a DRPM of 3.17. The Pacers are currently in the top half of the league in steals, points off turnovers, and points off the fastbreak. His floor is as strong as it gets, scoring less than 25 fantasy points only once all of last season and the ceiling gets a boost today given the matchup, pace, and overall game environment. He's a rock solid cash game option and he'll absolutely be on the tournament radar for tonight as well.

Bradley Beal, WAS (DK: $7K, FD: $8K, Yahoo: $30)

Unlike Oladipo, Beal can be a little more difficult to trust from a floor perspective. He has a wider range of outcomes but the risk is lowered given his current price and the potential for exceeding value is massive in this spot. Although expectations need to be tempered a bit compared to last season when he played much of the year with John Wall on the shelf, he was still very successful in this matchup, putting up 46 and 59 fantasy points in two games. CJ McCollum is not a good defender, ranking 78th of 93 shooting guards last season with a -2.04 DRPM. With both of these teams starting off the season at a fast pace and the Blazers scoring at will so far, it should put some pressure on the Wizards to keep up and provide additional shot opportunities for someone like Beal. Plus, with Howard still out and Mahinmi getting the start, all the usage will continue to run through Wall and Beal with Otto Porter Jr picking up the scraps. It's a small sample size (only 27.9 minutes) but Beal has seen an additional 10.7 fantasy points per game with the current projected starting lineup. The positive individual matchup and the game environment make Beal an interesting target in tournaments today.

Lonzo Ball, LAL (DK: $5.5K, FD: $6.8K, Yahoo: $26)

Typically, targeting players against the Spurs is never a good decision. They play great defense and are one of the slowest teams in the league. This season, the pace remains the same as the Spurs are currently the slowest team in the NBA, averaging just 96 possessions per game. But there is plenty to be optimistic about. First, while the Spurs are the slowest team, the Lakers so far are the fastest team, at a whopping 112 possessions per game. They are also at home and more often than not, the home team is able to control the pace. Secondly, the Spurs took a pretty big hit on defense when they lost Dejounte Murray to a torn ACL before the season started. Murray was the top overall point guard in DRPM last season by a large margin (he had a 3.60 and the next closest player was 2.40). Now the Spurs will turn to a combination of Patty Mills, who ranked 72nd out of 82 point guards last year at -2.15 and Bryn Forbes who ranked 79th out of 93 shooting guards at -2.13. As if all of that wasn't enough for us to have interest in this spot, we have massive value available here due to the suspensions on the Lakers' side. Coach Walton suggested over the weekend that Lonzo Ball looked great and that his minutes restriction would be lifted with the Lakers in need of ball-handling help without Rondo. Ball played 26 minutes on Saturday after Rondo was ejected and if we are looking at 30 or more minutes tonight, he's way under priced. He's averaged 35 fantasy points per game over his last 20 games which would be an outstanding return on his current salary. I'll likely wait for more news today to see if there is any additional insight on how the minutes will be as the Lakers could also choose to start Josh Hart if they want to continue limiting Ball. At the moment, based on what I've read, it appears to be all systems go, making him a great value play on this slate.

Forwards

LeBron James, LAL (DK: $10.5K, FD: $11.8K, Yahoo: $58)

Admittedly, I'm having a hard time deciding between the "big three" at the top of the small forward position today. Right off the bat, I'd rank Durant third in this group. He has an excellent matchup but the Warriors are on the second night of a back to back after a very close loss against the Nuggets last night. Durant played 39 minutes in that game so it wouldn't shock me at all if, in a game where they are heavily favored, he's either rested all together or sat out the fourth quarter if Golden State is up big. In the three games he played against the Suns last season, Durant scored under 40 fantasy points twice. Both were blowout wins. There was a fourth game as well, which he missed due to rest purposes. I don't trust him tonight.

Then we have Antetokounmpo, who I love, but he's the most expensive of this group on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He owned the Knicks last season, scoring over 50 fantasy points in all three games and I see no reason for that trend not to continue. He is also heavily favored, so sitting out near the end of the game is definitely on the table, which limits his ceiling despite the floor being solid.

That leaves us with James, who has been a bit disappointing so far, especially for him. But I don't expect those results to continue as this Lakers team starts to sort itself out. While the total in this game isn't as high as some of the others, it's still a respectable 221 and the spread is only one point, giving us a great opportunity for some back and forth. As I mentioned earlier, San Antonio's identity as a tough defensive team is fading. Kawhi Leonard is gone, Dejounte Murray is out, and the addition of DeMar DeRozan (73rd of 93 in DRPM) and the aforementioned Bryn Forbes into the starting lineup really give this team a different look. In fact, although it's a very small sample through just two games, the Spurs rank 28th in defensive rating at 119.9. This bodes well for James, who is still under priced relative to his talent, even if he's off to a bit of a slow start. Of the three high priced small forwards, this is where I would lean tonight.

Kawhi Leonard, TOR (DK: $8.8K, FD: $9.8K, Yahoo: $36)

If you want to get away from that top tier of pricing, you could absolutely pivot to Leonard here. His price is starting to rise but it still hasn't caught up to the early production we've seen so far. His Raptors' career is off to a good start, including an impressive performance against Boston where he had a double-double including 10 rebounds that resulted in 51 fantasy points on Friday. He'll be nice and fresh for this game, as he rested on Toronto's second night of a back to back on Saturday and then they were off last night. The Hornets are off to a good start with an impressive 101.3 defensive rating, which ranks third in the league and they are only allowing the fourth most opponent points per game. This is skewed quite a bit, however, due to their game on Friday where they held an awful Orlando team to just 88 points in a blowout win. They gave up 113 points to the Bucks and 112 points to the Heat in their other two games, so I'm certainly not concerned about the outlook for Toronto here. The game environment sets up nicely as this is a pace up game for the Raptors which should lead to additional fantasy opportunities, and they have the third highest implied total on the board at 116. The spread is big, with Toronto being -9.5 but inside single digits suggests it should stay competitive enough to give Leonard his full workload and it's also significantly better than several of the other games tonight. Historically, the Hornets get destroyed by the small forward position and I don't see that changing today. Leonard is one of my favorite plays on the board tonight from a price consideration standpoint.

Kyle Kuzma, LAL (DK: $5.5K, FD: $6.5K, Yahoo: $29)

If you haven't figured it out yet, I like the Lakers tonight. The pace of play is less concerning to me with this game being in Los Angeles and the Lakers playing at the fastest pace in the league. That should offset how slow the Spurs play and basically make it a wash. The question here is just whether or not Kuzma will get the start in place of the suspended Brandon Ingram. I like him either way, as his minutes should be secure with the multiple suspensions but I've seen a bunch of different projected lineup combinations for the Lakers today, so everyone is basically guessing at this point. Some sites are suggesting Hart will start at point guard instead of Ball, with either Kuzma or Stephenson starting at the small forward. Others are suggesting that Ball will start at point guard with either Hart or Kuzma starting at small forward. To be honest, I'd prefer whichever player comes off the bench, as they would likely get the most time on the floor without LeBron and open up available usage. Whatever ends up happening, it's pretty safe to assume Kuzma will get a minutes boost tonight after playing 29 and 25 minutes through the first two games. He's close to a fantasy point per minute producer, so if he pushes 30 or more minutes tonight he'll make for an excellent value.

Centers

DeAndre Jordan, DAL (DK: $8.1K, FD: $8.3K, Yahoo: $30)

Wendell Carter Jr's defensive skills have yet to translate to the NBA, as the Bulls have been owned by centers so far in this young season. In his defense (no pun intended) he has had extremely difficult matchups against Joel Embiid and Andre Drummond. So while I do expect things to improve, I don't see it happening tonight in yet another difficult matchup against DeAndre Jordan. Jordan's Mavericks' career (albeit a year late) is off to a great start after putting up two consecutive double-doubles including 11 points and 12 rebounds against the Suns and 22 points and 10 rebounds against Minnesota. He's essentially a lock for another double-double as the Bulls are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league so far, ranking 26th. What really stands out is they are the worst team in the NBA at offensive rebounding, averaging only five per game while the Mavericks, thanks in large part to Jordan, are ninth in the league in that same category. This should provide Jordan with plenty of opportunities for easy second chance points in addition to all those extra rebounds. Embiid (60 fantasy points in 33 minutes) and Drummond (29 fantasy points in 24 minutes) both had double-doubles of their own and high percentage shooting nights supporting the second chance points theory. Center is not typically a position I look to pay up for but I'm having a hard time looking away from what is shaping up to be a mouth watering matchup here. Jordan has played 30 and 33 minutes in his two games and with some of the value available elsewhere, it should be pretty easy to fit him in tonight.

Jusuf Nurkic, POR (DK: $6.2K, FD: $7.4K, Yahoo: $25)

The scary part about rostering Nurkic is the minutes can really fluctuate from game to game. His usage is really game dependent so we need to think through the matchup a little before deciding to consider him for our tournament rosters (you can almost never consider him for cash). For example, in the first game of the season, he only played 17 minutes but that was to be expected against a Lakers team that we anticipated would have a lot of small ball lineups. Tonight, he'll face the Wizards who will be without Dwight Howard which means that Ian Mahinmi (6' 11") and Jason Smith (7' 0") will soak up a majority of the minutes at center. This should allow us to project Nurkic to fall on the higher end up his minutes projection (somewhere between 20 and 25) which makes him an intriguing option for tournaments in a great matchup. He's a solid per minute producer averaging 1.33 fantasy points per minute over his last 20 games, which means he's more than capable of producing even in limited time. Neither Mahinmi (26th of 51 centers in DRPM) or Smith (53rd of 90 power forwards in DRPM) are intimidating defensively and, similar to the Bulls, Washington is ranked 26th in offensive rebounding, only averaging eight per game. The Wizards are allowing the most second chance points so far at 22 per game. The Blazers meanwhile, thanks in large part to Nurkic, are currently sixth in the league in rebounding (12th in offensive rebounding) which should lead to some easy buckets for Nurkic. He hasn't hit double digit rebounds in either of his two games this season but I expect him to get there tonight.

Myles Turner, IND (DK: $6K, FD: $6.1K, Yahoo: $17)

You basically always have to consider the center who is lining up opposite of Karl-Anthony Towns. He is one of the worst individual defenders at the position. This should give Turner, who is not known as a scorer, some additional opportunities to put up points tonight. In addition, Minnesota currently ranks 20th in offensive rebounds, averaging less than 10 per game, and 27th in defensive rebounds, averaging 30 defensive per game, which should give Turner more opportunities to rack up fantasy points on the glass. Last season, the Timberwolves allowed 34.2 fantasy points per game and nine rebounds per game to centers. In their last 20 games, they have allowed a double-double on average, including 17.3 points per game and 11.4 rebounds per game. Assuming Sabonis and Leaf miss (both are currently game time decisions) Turner should start and play 25+ minutes in this game. He's not an efficient player, averaging only about 0.74 fantasy points per minute over his last 20 games but if there were ever a spot to hit, this would definitely be it. I wouldn't touch him in cash, there are better options tonight, but he makes for a great value target in tournaments on this slate.

Freeroll

We will be holding a freeroll contest for readers on DraftKings every other weekday! I'll announce the winners of the previous day's contest right here in the newsletter.

• 1st Place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd & 3rd Places: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium, a t-shirt, or a coffee mug

• Bonus: If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

Here’s the link for today’s contest!

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).

Like what you read? Give us a thumbs up below!