Written by LineStar Fantasy NBA Writer @GP_Landry 

5:30 PM EST UPDATE:

Philadelphia:

• Ben Simmons is officially out tonight. He missed shootaround today and it would make sense to hold him out on the front end of a back to back. Joel Embiid sees the largest usage boost in this case while Redick, Fultz, and McConnell will all pickup extra minutes. Fultz and Redick will start at PG and SG, respectively.

• Mike Muscala is "available" which is always a fun designation. My guess is he'll see the court but they'll probably ease him back in. This doesn't have much of an impact just yet.

Detroit:

• Andre Drummond will play though he has a tough matchup against Embiid. I still like Griffin but he's obviously less appealing without all that extra usage that would have been available.

Denver:

• Jamal Murray will play. With all the value that has opened up in Philadelphia I'm not looking at Monte Morris anymore.

That's it! Those were the pieces of news that we were looking for tonight. Good luck and I'll talk to you tomorrow!

Another day and another wild night in the NBA. 143-142 was the final in the Spurs/Lakers game for those of you who missed it. That’s already the third game we’ve had this season with a total over 270 points. The pace is really something to watch right now. It’s certainly exciting from a fantasy perspective with the non-stop action (and a bit frustrating when you post a score that previously would have won some nice money and now just barely breaks even) but this is what we are working with for the time being. I’ll be really curious to see if this pace and scoring can sustain throughout the season. It seems impossible.

Today brings us a surprisingly interesting three game slate. I’m typically not a fan of smaller slates but this one has a lot to like. We have quite a bit of injury news that needs to be addressed before we can really make final decisions on our rosters. The 76ers, in particular, have a lot of players on their injury report including Ben Simmons who would obviously have a big impact. The Pistons currently list Andre Drummond as questionable with the flu, so he would have a big impact as well. The Nuggets also have some injury news worth monitoring, with Jamal Murray and a player that has already been ruled out for the foreseeable future in Will Barton that will open up some opportunity elsewhere. Make sure to check back at 5 pm EST (roughly) where I will post an update to the article on any recent news and how it changes the slate.  

I'm going to move away from the typical newsletter format just a little bit today. On a normal sized slate, I like to choose a high, mid, and value priced player at each position. This way you have some options to work with that can help you with your roster construction. Today, because it's such a small slate, there aren't necessarily options worth considering in each pricing tier (in my opinion). In fact, if Ben Simmons doesn't play today then we don't even have a guard priced over $7.5K on DraftKings or over $8K on FanDuel. This should make it a bit easier to pay up elsewhere and you'll see that reflected with the players I'm going to talk about. On the small slates like today, you can expect a couple of recommendations for each position and on the larger slates, we'll expand to three or sometimes more per position depending on the situation.

Games to Target

Only three games on this slate so we'll just briefly touch on each of them before taking a look at some specific players:

76ers @ Detroit

There is no Vegas information on this game yet and with good reason. We have potentially key injuries on both sides that greatly impact the game from both a real-life and fantasy standpoint. For Philadelphia, Ben Simmons is currently questionable after only playing eight minutes on Saturday and exiting with back tightness. He did not practice yesterday, which is even more discouraging. Obviously, his absence changes the entire look of the 76ers and would open up usage and opportunities for a number of players. On the Detroit side, Andre Drummond has the flu and did not practice yesterday. Another player who commands high usage on his team and if he were to miss, it would open up a lot for his teammates, especially Blake Griffin. If everyone plays, then this game will be less appealing from a DFS perspective but if players do end up missing, it could open up value and bring some ownership. For what it's worth, I would think that Philadelphia holds out Simmons on the front end of a back to back.

Clippers @ Pelicans (NO -6.5, 237 O/U)

This game, especially with only two others on this slate, is sticking out like a sore thumb with this monster total that is approaching 240. New Orleans is averaging an absurd 140 points per game through their first two games of the season and they are currently third in the league in pace of play with 108.75 possessions per game after finishing first last season. The Clippers are less exciting, averaging 107 points per game (24th) and 102 possessions per game (22nd). The Pelicans have allowed the 22nd most opponent points so far, while the Clippers have allowed the third fewest. Basically, we have two teams here who play very different styles facing off. With the Pelicans putting up so many points and playing at such a ridiculous pace, the Clippers will have no choice but to try and keep up or find themselves getting completely blown out. As long as New Orleans continues this trend, you will want exposure to both sides of their game on every slate. Fun fact of the day: Five of the top ten players in plus/minus in the NBA are on the Pelicans (Moore +24, Davis +22, Holiday +19.5, Payton +19.5, and Mirotic +14).

Kings at Nuggets (DEN -11, 227 O/U)

After a gutsy, defensive battle that lead to a two point win over the Golden State Warriors, the Nuggets will look to remain unbeaten against the Kings tonight. Denver has impressively held all three teams it has faced to less than 100 points (Clippers 98, Suns 91, Warriors, 98) which has resulted in a league best 92.9 defensive rating. This is extremely uncharacteristic of them as they are typically one of the weaker teams defensively (ranked 23rd last season) so I'm not ready to fully buy into this just yet but it's definitely notable, especially with one of the teams they faced being the Warriors. The Nuggets are 22nd in points per game, so they are relying on their defense pretty heavily at this point. The Kings are basically going in the opposite direction. They've allowed the 30th most opponent points per game but they've also scored the second most themselves. They also are playing at the second fastest pace in the league at the moment with 110 possessions per game. A team that plays incredibly fast can't play defense but relies on scoring in order to stay in games against a team that plays on the slower side, doesn't score very often but is relying on defense to keep them in games.

Injury Report

Guards

De'Aaron Fox, SAC (DK $7.1K, FD: $8K, Yahoo: $21)

A breakout sophomore season is in the works for this 20 year old from the University of Kentucky. He is white hot to start the season, averaging 20.3 points, 7.7 assists, and 5 rebounds per game through their first three contests. This has resulted in fantasy performances of 41, 34, and 46. His two games with over forty fantasy points were in difficult matchups as well, against the Jazz (Rubio, 4th in DRPM) and the Thunder (Westbrook, 9th in DRPM). Tonight, he gets his easiest matchup of the season so far against Jamal Murray (if he plays) who ranked 65 out of 71 point guards last season in DRPM with a -2.33. Denver has played very strong defense as a team and limited the fantasy opportunities of their opponents but point guard is the one position where I feel comfortable trying to exploit them. Fox is playing huge minutes so far, averaging 35.5 per game, which is the most of any point guard. He has the second most fantasy points per minute (1.16) behind only Ben Simmons and he has the highest usage rate 21.6% of anyone at the position tonight (remember, small sample size). His price is rising quickly, up $1.4K on DraftKings, $2.8K on FanDuel, and $6 on Yahoo but it still hasn't caught up with the production he's showing. As long as he continues to play minutes in the mid 30's, there is no reason he can't keep this going.

Monte Morris, DEN (DK: $4.3K, FD: $3.6K, Yahoo: $10)

Obviously, this is at least partly contingent on the status of Jamal Murray, who is currently a game time decision. I'm leaning toward him not playing, though this is just speculation on my part, as reports have said that he looked to be in obvious pain during Sunday's game. If he does miss, then Morris becomes a punt point guard looking at 30+ minutes at near minimum salary and would likely become a chalk value option. Even if Murray plays, I don't think using Morris is out of the question on a three game slate. Murray really struggled, going 0 for 9 from the floor in their last game and he's clearly not 100%. We could see a situation where he plays but his minutes are reduced. Even with Murray playing Sunday, Morris still got 22 minutes of his own and made the most of them, putting up 23 fantasy points including 4 of 10 from the field, six rebounds, and four assists. If he can get into the 25 or more minute range and continue to produce right around a fantasy point per minute, he'd be a steal at this price. The Kings are a point guard's matchup dream right now. De'Aaron Fox, for all the things he's doing well on offense, is not a good defender, ranking 68th of 71 players with a -2.71 DRPM. The Kings are allowing the 30th most opponent points, the 29th highest opponent field goal percentage (51.4%), and the 25th most assists at 26.3 per game. Whoever slides into this spot should be able to do whatever they want offensively. If Murray gives it a go then Morris is a tournament play only. If Murray sits, Morris becomes cash game viable.

Forwards

Anthony Davis, NO (DK: $11.4K, FD: $13K, Yahoo: $58)

I'm cheating a little bit here by putting Davis in the forward spot because he plays center in real life but it actually makes sense from a roster construction standpoint. He has forward and center eligibility on DraftKings, he's only forward eligible on FanDuel, and on Yahoo, he's only center eligible. But you also have a utility spot on that site, so there's some flexibility there. As I said earlier, this is a game you're going to want (need?) exposure to with this close spread and huge implied total. In their previous two games, the final totals were 243 and a whopping 278. This will be a fast paced back and forth affair with plenty of fantasy opportunities. Surprisingly, with Gortat being such a strong defender, the Clippers have been destroyed by centers so far this season. Jokic (42 fantasy points in 34 minutes), Adams (43 fantasy points in 34 minutes), and Capela (43.5 fantasy points in 34 minutes) have all had monster nights in this spot. One obvious place they are struggling is rebounding, where they are currently allowing 47.7 opponent rebounds per game, which is 16th in the league. This has led to 16.3 second chance points per game, currently tied for 23rd. Davis, meanwhile, has double-digit rebounds in both of his games so far, including a monster 16 rebound performance on opening night which resulted in 77 fantasy points. Davis should be able to control the glass and pick up a lot of easy buckets underneath. There's really not much analysis needed here. We will have interest in Davis every night he's on the slate. As long as the Pelicans continue to play at this ridiculous pace and score at will, the floor/ceiling combination for him will be among the best in the league. As far as the higher priced players are concerned tonight, he's a priority for me.

Nikola Mirotic, NO (DK: $7.2K, FD: $7.4K, Yahoo: $32)

Sticking with the Pelicans, we have Mirotic who has been on absolute fire through the first two games of the season. His price is skyrocketing but it's still not close to catching up to the production he's had so far. He's completely blown away his projections through the first two games with 51 and 53 fantasy points. Currently, he's tied for the league lead in points per game (33), second in field goals made per game (12.5), and tied for first with 5.5 three pointers made per game. He's also eighth in the league with 4.5 offensive rebounds per game, which has resulted in 5.5 second chance points per game, also eighth in the league. This is legitimately Lebron, Harden, (insert elite player here) production for just over half the cost. Can he keep this level of production up? No, definitely not. He's shooting 61% from the field right now on 20.5 shot attempts per game, which is insane and completely unsustainable. Regression is no doubt on its way and at some point as his price continues to catch up to his performance, we'll need to make an educated decision on when to jump off this train before it's too late. For now, it's impossible for me to fade him at this price with what he's been able to accomplish. He'll be another priority for me on this slate.

Centers

Joel Embiid, PHI (DK: $10.4K, FD: $10.7K, Yahoo: $44)

This is a really sneaky spot for Embiid (relative to slate size) and I'm really hoping that Ben Simmons and Andre Drummond play tonight. If Simmons is out, the interest level in Embiid will undoubtedly rise, as he'll see a 3.15% usage bump on top of his already elite 30.9% usage rate this season. The offense will run almost entirely through him in this scenario. If Simmons plays, I don't see Embiid getting as much attention on a three game slate that also includes Davis and Jokic, who are both in great matchups. That's not to say that Embiid will be low owned (it's pretty hard for him to be low owned on a three game slate) but I think he'll be lower owned (which is really all we can ask for) compared to the other two.

If Drummond misses, it's actually a matchup downgrade for Embiid (though I'm pretty comfortable calling him matchup proof so this wouldn't scare me off of him, just worth noting) as Pachulia and Leuer are better defenders than Drummond. Novice players won't take the time to look at this, however, and just see Embiid matched up against backup players and assume it's a better situation. So for our purposes tonight, we want both Simmons and Drummond to play and take as much attention away from Embiid as possible.

Let me explain. Detroit is the NBA's version of a funnel defense for those of you who play NFL DFS. Basically, they are defending the perimeter very well (remember it's still a small sample size) which forces teams to push the ball into the paint in order to score. Detroit is currently the best in the NBA in opponent three point percentage, allowing teams to shoot just 25% from behind the arc. But they are 28th in opponent points allowed in the paint, allowing 62 per game. They are also 28th in the league in opponent field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot 49.7%, further supporting the theory that they give up a lot of easy buckets underneath. You just better hope you make the shot on the first try because Detroit rebounds incredibly well and doesn't give up many second chance points. All of this means opportunities for Embiid, as Philadelphia will likely be forced into avoiding shots on the outside and getting the ball down low and allow Embiid to do his thing. Philadelphia is off to a slow start three point shooting anyway, hitting just 35.8% of their attempts, so it would benefit them not to force these shots tonight against this defense. I admit, it's a lot of moving pieces and it could burn me, but we know what Embiid is capable of and the way this game sets up, there should be extra opportunities funneled his way. This is one of my favorite plays of the day.

Nikola Jokic, DEN (DK: $9.7K, FD: $10.6K, Yahoo: $49)

There really aren’t any centers that I want to pay down for today (unless value opens up this afternoon) so I’m going to go with another high priced option. We are basically forced to pay down at guard today anyway, the way pricing is set up, so it would make sense to use the extra money and pay up at this position (just keep in mind most people will be following this same path). I feel like a broken record when I keep saying “this guy is on fire” (Jon Gruden voice) but this slate is full of players who are off to a hot start. Jokic is no exception, just a few days removed from his monster triple-double against the Suns where he had 35 points, 12 rebounds, and 11 assists in 31 minutes of action which resulted in a massive 82 fantasy point performance. He has a couple of forty point fantasy performances on either side of that game. This type of volatility is pretty standard with Jokic. He’s either going to have a game that breaks the slate or he’ll post a disappointing performance with less than 30 fantasy points. He has a wider range of outcomes than most NBA players. It makes it difficult to trust him in cash games but he’s always in consideration, regardless of matchup, for tournaments. Tonight, he gets a plus draw against the Kings who are allowing the 29th most opponent points in the league, the 25th most opponent assists in the league, and the 22nd most opponent rebounds in the league. All of these are things that Jokic excels at, which makes this a great spot for him to smash. The floor is a bit scary but everything lines up for this to be another ceiling game for him tonight.

Freeroll

Congratulations to the winners of yesterday's freeroll!

• 1st: LesterNygaard: 362.50

• 2nd: Sticks2U: 345

• 3rd: Misfitzs: 342.25

DM us on Twitter with your winning lineup!

The NBA freeroll contests will take place on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday on DraftKings during normal sized slates.

• 1st Place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd & 3rd Places: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium, a t-shirt, or a coffee mug

• Bonus: If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).

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