Written by LineStar Fantasy NBA Writer @GP_Landry 

This is a crazy slate. There are multiple players I could see myself rostering in each pricing tier at each position. Days like today are really difficult to narrow down the player pool. If someone you like isn’t listed below, that doesn’t mean they aren’t a good play. Because I’m narrowing the options down to just one high, mid, and value tier option for each position, there are often several good players that you could make an argument for who get left off the list. Don't use the newsletter as your complete research but rather as a way to support arguments you are trying to make on players you have interest in or to open your eyes up to other players you may not have thought of originally. This is going to be a high scoring one tonight, so let's not waste any time.

Games to Target

This is a great seven-game slate but there are three games in particular which are standing out as good places to look for fantasy production:

Bucks @ Timberwolves (MIL -1, 235 O/U)

This game pits two teams, who are currently in the top 10 in points per game, against each other (Bucks are 4th and the TWolves are 10th). Milwaukee is extremely strong defensively in the early going, something that was expected to improve with the change to new head coach, Mike Budenholzer. Minnesota is not a good defensive team, ranking 22nd in this category after finishing 25th last season. Standing out to me in this matchup is the battle on the glass, which looks, at least on paper, like it won’t be much of a battle at all. Milwaukee is 2nd in rebounding, 10th in second chance points with 15 per game, and 5th in points in the paint with 53.5 per game. Minnesota is 26th in rebounding, they are next to last in opponent second chance points allowed (19.4 per game), and 15th in opponent points allowed in the paint (48.4). Expect the Bucks to dominate down low tonight.  

Nets @ Pelicans (NO -9.5, 233 O/U)

I’m surprised the spread in this game is only single digits for the time being and I don’t expect that to last. Blowout potential is the one downside here but as we learned last night with the Pistons and Cavs game, this can be extremely hard to predict and not something we should weigh too heavily in our decision making process. We all fully expected the Pistons to crush Cleveland last night without Kevin Love and it was a pretty competitive game right to the end. As far as this game goes, the Pelicans are first in points scored, averaging a ridiculous 132 per game and 2nd in pace, at 107.3 possessions per game. The Nets are 26th in points per game and one of the slowest teams in the league with 98.8 possessions per game. It appears, at least for now, the Nets are trying to slow the game down and play better defense, which is basically the opposite of their game plan from last year. Regardless, it won’t be enough to stop New Orleans who will dominate the turnover battle tonight. The Pelicans are 6th in opponent points off turnovers, 4th in fast break points, and 5th in steals per game. Brooklyn is 29th in points off turnovers, dead last in opponent points off turnovers (meaning they allow the most in the league), and dead last in turnovers per game at 18.8. The Pelicans should be able to keep up their high scoring ways tonight.

Wizards @ Kings (WAS -4.5, 235 O/U)

Late night hammer anyone? This game, mainly because the Kings are involved, did not appeal to me when I first looked at tonight’s schedule. But after taking a look at some of the data, it actually screams shootout potential. Both teams are in the top ten in scoring, with the Wizards 6th in the league at 118 points per game and the Kings 8th in the league with 117.2 points per game. Neither team is playing good defense. Washington is 29th in opponent points per game and 23rd in defensive rating (133.4) while the Kings are 28th in opponent points per game and 24th in defensive rating (113.6). These are also two of the fastest teams in the league, with the Wizards having the 5th fastest pace so far at 106.8 possessions per game and the Kings having the 4th fastest pace at 107 possessions per game. Quick recap: Two teams that are in the top ten in scoring, bottom three in opponent points allowed, and top five in pace. Yes please.  

Injury Report

Guards

John Wall, WAS (DK: $8.5K, FD: $9.6K, Yahoo: $44)

This spot is standing out to me for Wall tonight. He’s trending in the wrong direction, currently going from two games with 47 or more fantasy points to having 37 or less fantasy points in his last two. I’m not overly concerned about the last game, as it was a blowout situation against the Warriors and Wall only played 27 minutes. Prior to that he played 36, 34, and 41 minutes. As we talked about earlier, this game features two teams who are top ten in scoring, top five in pace, and bottom five in opponents points allowed. In addition to the near perfect game environment, this is an outstanding matchup as well. The Kings rank 17th in fantasy points allowed to the point guard position and De’Aaron Fox is one of the worst individual defenders, ranking 79th out of 82 point guards with a -2.71. Wall has one of the highest usage rates among point guards at 28% and he's currently averaging 42.7 fantasy points per game despite the two games where he struggled. He's not shooting the ball well at the moment but comfortable attributing this to early season form. We know how talented this guy is. He's one of my favorite players on the slate today.  

Jrue Holiday, NO (DK: $6.9K, FD: $7.8K, Yahoo: $38)

As is going to be the case all season, you’re going to want exposure to the Pelicans again tonight. They are playing at the second fastest pace, score the most points per game, and have the highest implied total. Holiday is averaging 34.4 minutes per game and 35.8 fantasy points per game, which comes out to a comfortable 1.04 fantasy points per minute. One of the things we talked about with this game is the turnover differential. Holiday could play a big role in that. He’s second in the NBA with 2.3 steals per game and New Orleans is 6th in the league in points off turnovers and 4th in the league in points off of the fast break. Brooklyn, meanwhile, is last in the league in turnovers and 30th in opponent points allowed off of turnovers. I’m expecting a spike in the steals and assists department tonight, which should lead to some easy buckets in transition that Holiday will either score himself or assist with (he’s third in the league in assists with 9 per game). Brooklyn is playing good defense so far, allowing just the second most points to the shooting guard position, but this is skewed due only a four-game sample size that includes a poor performance from Rodney Hood in a blowout game. Holiday has also seen a price decrease over the first two games, starting at $8.3K on FanDuel and down to $7.8K today and starting at $7.5K on DraftKings down to $6.9K for tonight. He's an affordable way to get exposure to this high octane offense tonight.   

Damyean Dotson, NYK (DK: $4.2K, FD: $5.2K, Yahoo: $10)

This sets up really well for Dotson to build on some momentum he’s gaining over the past few games. His minutes are trending in the right direction, going from 21, to 32, to 34 and scoring 21, 30, and 42 fantasy points during that span. He’s still dirt cheap across the industry and this is another spot where we can expect him to play heavy minutes in what should be another blowout against Golden State. He’s taken double-digit shot attempts in two of his last three, had double digit rebounds in his last game and eight rebounds in the game before that. He’s a sneaky bet for a double-double in this spot, which would be an outstanding return on this salary. His role in this offense seems secure, as he’s third on the team in minutes played and points per game. He’s fourth in field goals attempted (11.7 per game), second on the team in three pointers attempted (7 per game), and first on the team in steals (1.7 per game). Golden State defends the paint really well, ranking 3rd in opponent points in the paint allowed and the Knicks struggle at scoring in the paint, ranking 27th. This should funnel some additional opportunities to the guards, giving Dotson ample opportunities to exceed salary expectations in the spot. He’s well on the radar in tournaments and personally I could see him ending up in my cash game lineups. There’s some risk there, as bench player minutes are never secure, but I’m feeling confident he’ll get at least enough minutes to pay off his salary with plenty of upside for more.  

Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL (DK: $11.7K, FD: $12.3K, Yahoo: $53)

I’m really liking the Milwaukee side of this game, as I highlighted earlier in the games to target section. This matchup has one of the highest totals on the slate and an extremely close spread. The Timberwolves are not a good team defensively outside of Jimmy Butler but there’s a possibility he won’t even be on this team before the slate starts. For the record, even if Butler isn’t traded, I’m not worried about his defense against Giannis. The man is a monster. One of the most appealing parts of this matchup is related to rebounding. The Bucks are 2nd in the league in rebounding thanks in large part to Giannis, who has 18, 15, 15, and 18 rebounds in each game. Go ahead and read those rebound numbers per game again. I'll wait. In case it wasn't obvious, he leads the NBA. The Timberwolves, however, are 26th in rebounding and are allowing the second-most second chance points in the league with 19.4 per game. In addition to eating on the boards tonight, he also has the highest usage rate of any player on this slate at 34.5% and he’s averaging a ridiculous 1.84 fantasy points per minute at 35.3 minutes per game. This is yet another massive blowup spot for him in a game that could stay competitive throughout. My assumption, given the Anthony Davis history against the Nets, is Antetokounmpo will be the lower owned of the two and could be a nice pivot play. There's also enough value on this slate that you could try to fit them both in (it's easier on some sites more than others).    

Khris Middleton, MIL (DK: $7K, FD: $7.6K, Yahoo: $35)

I’m going to stick with Milwaukee here as Middleton feels underpriced across the industry.  Butler will likely matchup on Antetokounmpo which could create a serious mismatch for Middleton who would be guarded by Andrew Wiggins (if he plays) or whoever starts for Wiggins (likely Josh Okogie). Neither of those guys have the skills defensively to slow down Middleton. Wiggins actually ranked 71st out of 75 small forwards in DRPM last season at -1.84. Middleton has a solid 22.7% usage rate, is averaging 32.9 minutes per game, and has scored 40.7 fantasy points per game (1.24 fantasy points per minute). He’s quietly ranked 11th in the NBA in points per game with 24.1. He’s shooting an impressive 50.8% from the field. He also leads the league in triples made per game with 4.5 and he’s fourth in triples attempted at 7.8. The one caution here is he’s shooting 58.1% from that range, which isn’t sustainable, but we can still try to strike the iron while it’s hot here before regression starts to kick in. He's cash game viable tonight in what should be a high scoring game.   

Jabari Parker, CHI (DK: $5.5K, FD: $7K, Yahoo: $19)

The biggest question here is: Will Parker ever leave the floor? The Bulls are being crushed by injuries right now and it got worse in their last game when Bobby Portis suffered a sprained MCL. With Portis and Markkanen out now at least the next month it’s going to be the Jabari Parker show at power forward. I admit that’s a bit scary, as Parker certainly hasn’t given us a lot of confidence in his ability to consistently produce fantasy points in the past but he’s been playing well on his new team so far this season. Plus, he doesn’t have much competition outside of Zach LaVine (who is also very high on my list tonight) for usage and opportunities right now. He’s second on the Bulls in usage (24.1%), points per game, and shot attempts per game behind LaVine. He’s also second in rebounds per game behind Bobby Portis, who is now no longer in the picture for the short term. Parker was the second overall pick just four years ago and he’s still only 23 years old! Now that he’s no longer in the shadow of Giannis Antetokoumpo, and with all the opportunities he’s about to receive due to injuries, this is shaping up as a potential breakout year for him. His price is way too cheap right now and it might not be down here much longer if he really starts to take off. There’s a good chance he’s on my main DraftKings roster tonight, where he's only $5.5K.  

Centers

Anthony Davis, NO (DK: $11.6K, FD: $13K, Yahoo: $58)

With over 70 fantasy points in two of three games and a 70 and 91 fantasy point performance against Brooklyn last season, it’s pretty hard to argue with Anthony Davis as the top overall play on the board. He has by far the highest usage rate of any center on this slate at 27.3%. He’s averaging 35.3 minutes per game and 69.6 fantasy points per game which equals nearly two fantasy points per minute (1.97). Once again, on paper, Brooklyn seems to be playing really strong on defense. They are 12th in defensive rating so far this season and they have allowed only the ninth most fantasy points per position. Personally, I'm not buying. We need to take this with a grain of salt because the sample size is so small at this point. The one game against Cleveland, which the Nets dominated, is really skewing their overall numbers. If you throw that game out, the Nets have allowed 50 fantasy points in 33 minutes to Drummond, 47 fantasy points in 36 minutes to Kanter, and 32.6 fantasy points in 27 minutes to Miles Turner. Drummond is the closest to Davis in terms of skill (and it’s not that close) and he had a 20/20 game in this spot last week. The Nets will have no answers for Davis yet again tonight. There should be more than enough value to fit him in on this slate. I don't think I need to say much else to convince you to get him in your lineups.

Clint Capela, HOU (DK: $6.7K, FD: $8.1K, Yahoo: $27)

With James Harden out tonight, Eric Gordon and Chris Paul are seemingly going to get all the attention. Clint Capela could become the forgotten man on this offense yet you could argue he has the best matchup of anyone on this team and he too will benefit from Harden’s absence tonight. This is the first game of the season where we have two teams who have already faced each other and Capela dominated, putting up 23 points, six rebounds, and five assists which resulted in 46 fantasy points. Harden played 40 minutes in that game and put up 31 points of his own. With Harden’s usage now available for the taking, I think Capela steps it up to another level in this spot. The Clippers have allowed at least 40 fantasy points to every center they’ve faced so far this season. LA is a tough team defensively but their perimeter defense is much stronger than their rim protection. They are allowing the sixth fewest opponent three point attempts in the league and the fifth lowest opponent three point shooting percentage. But they are 20th in the league in points in the paint allowed to their opponents, giving up 50 per game. This should create some extra opportunities for Capela to score down low. He’s too cheap, especially on DraftKings, and this is a great way to take advantage of the Harden injury without being too obvious.

Willie Cauley-Stein, SAC (DK: $5.9K, FD: $7K, Yahoo: $22)

The Wizards are really banged up down low right now, with Howard on the shelf and Mahinmi currently questionable. This means we are likely to get Jason Smith in the starting lineup for the Wizards tonight, which is a nice matchup upgrade to Cauley-Stein in what’s expected to be a high speed, high scoring contest. The Wizards are allowing the second most opponent points per game, rank 23rd in defense, and are playing at the fifth fastest pace. They struggle to guard the paint where they are allowing 49 points per game (17th) and they are allowing the most opponent rebounds in the league with a massive 56.3 per game. Cauley-Stein isn’t the best rebounding big man in the NBA but he does have one double-digit rebounding game this season and should have a good shot at another in this spot tonight. Washington is currently 28th in fantasy points allowed to centers and Jason Smith ranked 51st in DRPM among power forwards last season. The only downside I see is WCS is averaging a little less than 30 minutes per game, which isn’t bad, but ideally I’d like to see him over that 30 minute per game mark to have total confidence. I will point out though that the games where he played less minutes are when the Kings lost by double-digit margins each time, and in their two competitive games this season, he has 35 and 38 minutes. With the spread on this game so close we should expect him to reach the mid-30's for playing time again. He’s too cheap across the industry for the opportunity he’ll have tonight.  

Freeroll

The NBA freeroll contests will take place on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday on DraftKings during normal sized slates.

• 1st Place: $10 via PayPal

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• Bonus: If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

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HERE'S THE LINK TO TODAY'S FREEROLL!

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).

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