Written by LineStar Fantasy NBA Writer @GP_Landry

Well then. My original plan today was to write-up the newsletter and just avoid the Giannis and Davis situations for the time being. Without knowing their status, and the huge impact both of them have, I figured we could focus on other players on this slate that are intriguing and then wait until this afternoon when the news came out and then figure out how to adjust. Instead, as I was getting ready to submit today’s article for review, all the news starting breaking at once. As a DFS player, I’m actually pumped that we are getting news on time (especially after the Steven Adams debacle last night). But unfortunately, I basically had to re-write most of the newsletter as this obviously changes the entire slate. On top of Giannis and Davis being out (which we knew was a possibility) we unexpectedly learned that Kawhi is also out today for rest purposes. We've got a lot to talk about with all this news and I'm now about three hours behind when I normally send in the article so let's not waste anytime.

Since this is coming out around 4pm EST I will not be doing a 5pm EST update today. At this point, we have the major news we need anyway.

Games to Target

A lot of games today but two in particular, outside of the ones impacted by all the injury news, are standing out to me as good places to look for fantasy production.

Kings @ Heat (MIA -8, 227 O/U)

The Kings are shaping up as a team we’ll want to be targeting for DFS purposes all season, assuming their current numbers hold up. Currently, they are playing at the second fastest pace in the league with 107.2 possessions per game. They are scoring the 6th most points in the league per game and allowing the 28th most opponent points per game. This should give Miami some additional possessions above their season average and with the Kings not playing any defense, the Heat should be able to do something with them. The Heat will have a clear advantage on the glass tonight, ranking 2nd in rebounds per game with 52.6 compared to the Kings, ranking 15th with 45.2 per game. This has led to Miami having the second most second chance points per game with 17.6 while Sacramento is 26th in this category. The Heat are also 14th in the league in points in the paint while the Kings are next to last in points allowed in the paint with 59 per game. Bottom line? This sets up well for the Miami big men. The Kings do have a shot to keep it close, however, if they can win in the turnover department. They are fourth in the league in points off turnovers and fast break points while Miami is 23rd in the league in turnovers per game (15.6 per game) and 27th in the league in opponent points allowed off turnovers. This could be a high scoring affair.

Lakers @ Timberwolves (MIN -1, 239 O/U)

There is ridiculous potential in this game with just a one point spread and this monster total approaching 240 points. Both teams play extremely fast with the Lakers ranked 5th in pace at 106.4 possessions and the Timberwolves ranked 9th in pace with 103.5 possessions per game. Neither team plays much defense. The Lakers are 23rd with a 112.8 defensive rating and Minnesota is 24th with a 113.4 defensive rating. Los Angeles, in particular, is a great team to target as they rank third in points per game with 122.3 and 29th in opponent points per game. Similar to the previous game, the turnover battle will be key here. Both teams are top five in steals per game with the Timberwolves ranked 3rd (9.5 per game) and the Lakers ranked 4th (9 per game) and both are top ten in fewest turnovers per game with the Lakers ranked 8th (13.3 per game) and the Timberwolves ranked 10th (13.5 per game).

Injury Report

Guards

Kyle Lowry, TOR (DK: $8K, FD: $8.8K, Yahoo: $33)

No surprise here. This is going to be a similar situation to last season when DeRozan was on the Raptors. When one of them is out, you basically locked in the other. Obviously, we have a much smaller sample size to work with here but the one game that we have seen so far without Kawhi on the floor, Lowry dominated. He put up a double-double with 28 points and 12 assists in 35 minutes of action resulting in a monster 55 fantasy point performance. This is a pace up game for the Raptors with the Bucks currently ranked sixth in the league with 105.7 possessions per game. They are tough defensively but with the amount of usage that Lowry will have tonight (we can’t calculate it exactly since it’s such a small sample size) I’m less concerned about the matchup. He’s currently averaging 34.5 minutes per game and 44.7 fantasy points per game, which equals a very comfortable 1.30 fantasy points per minute. This game does not have the highest total of the night but with the spread close and both sides missing key players, Vegas is expecting it to remain competitive. When I first viewed this slate, I was viewing Lowry as being priced appropriately. What I mean by that is I didn't consider him a bad play and if I ultimately landed on him, I'd be okay with that, but I felt like I could do better in terms of value. Now, with all the additional opportunities he's sure to get with the offense flowing through him, I'm once again comfortable viewing him as under priced given the new circumstances. He's a lock and load option for me in both cash and tournaments tonight.

Jrue Holiday, NO (DK: $6.7K, FD: $8K, Yahoo: $36)

With Elfrid Payton set to miss this game it’s a little unclear what the Pelicans rotation is going to look like today. Someone like Tim Frazier or Frank Jackson is likely to step into the starting lineup, which certainly makes them viable punt options. The real winner here, however, should be Holiday, who will get an opportunity to run the point a little more in this situation. We don’t have any usage data for what happens when Payton is off the floor since this is his first season on this team and his first time missing a game. But we can still safely assume that Holiday will soak up a majority of those available opportunities and give him a bump as a result. The Nuggets have been a difficult team defensively, ranking third in defensive rating (101) and they play at a middling pace, ranking 13th with 103.1 possessions per game. Despite the matchup, however, with the added opportunities as the point guard tonight and his price tag (particularly on DraftKings) I'm viewing Holiday as close to a must play tonight. As if it wasn’t already setting up well for him, with Davis now out, Holiday should receive an additional 7% usage rate increase and averages an additional 15.3 fantasy points per game in that scenario. I do have concerns about the blowout as the Nuggets are an extremely good team. I probably won't go crazy with my New Orleans exposure as a result but with both Davis and Payton out tonight Holiday is the clear beneficiary that I'm comfortable locking into my lineups.

Dennis Smith Jr, DAL (DK: $5.5K, FD: $6.4K, Yahoo: $25)

This one is a little off the board but his price stood out to me as a guy who has struggled to start the season but is starting to flash signs of life and we know is more talented than what the current cost suggests. San Antonio, surprisingly, has the worst defensive rating in the league right now. They’ve been particularly bad against point guards, ranking 23rd in fantasy points allowed to the position. The loss of Dejounte Murray is really being felt on this side of the ball. He was the number one defender at this position last season with a 3.60 DRPM and now they are trying to replace him with either Patty Mills (72 of 82 point guards with a -2.33) or Bryn Forbes who are both poor individual defenders. Smith’s price has plummeted since the start of the season but he’s scored at least 29 fantasy points in four of the five games he’s played. The minutes are a little lower than we’d like to see but after starting off the season playing two games with 26 and 28 minutes, he’s now played in 30 minutes or more in three straight games. He’s averaging 1.02 fantasy points per minute and has a usage rate of 26.2%. While this isn’t a game I’m going out of my way to have a lot of exposure to today, Smith’s price just stood out to me as being on the low end for a player we know is capable of putting up fantasy points in the upper-30's to mid-40's. My assumption is people will continue to view the Spurs as a bad matchup as they’ve always been historically. Smith is a bit volatile at the moment for cash games but I love him as a tournament guard on this slate.

Forwards

LeBron James (DK: $11.4K, FD: $11.8K, Yahoo: $58)

I wish LA wasn’t on the road here but it’s still difficult to argue with this spot. As we talked about earlier, this is one of the premier games on the slate with a huge total and a spread of only a single point. In order for it to stay that high scoring (and competitive) it’s going to require a huge game from LeBron. This will be an extremely fast game and neither team is good defensively, which should lead to a whole bunch of back and forth here. Jimmy Butler, who is one of the top defenders in basketball, will matchup with James but he’ll have little to no help around him and he definitely can’t do it on his own. If we look at the last five times these guys have faced off against one another, James has had over 25 points in all but one game (a blowout loss), he’s had a double-double in three of the five games, and he had a triple-double in one. Butler defense isn’t going to scare you off of rostering James, he’s simply matchup proof. With this game environment setting up to be as high scoring, fast, and competitive as Vegas is indicating, you’re going to want exposure here. I admit, it feels a bit riskier than it should for using LeBron James because he still hasn’t quite figured out how to fit in with his new teammates. But especially now with so many other studs not playing tonight, we have to view James as the top overall play on the slate (from a projection standpoint not necessarily value). With all the value now available on the board, it should be pretty easy to fit him in. So I'm likely going to take the raw points here with James for my cash games.

Khris Middleton, MIL (DK: $6.9K, FD: $7.5K, Yahoo: $33)

Giannis currently owns the highest usage rate in the NBA so with him out for tonight, you can imagine that everyone on the Bucks gets a fairly significant bump. Middleton, in particular, is the big winner of today’s news for two reasons. First, he sees the largest bump of all his Bucks teammates. If we run the usage matrix over the last two seasons, without Giannis we see that Middleton gets a 6.2% usage rate increases and an additional 7.72 fantasy points per game. With his current usage rate sitting at 23.6%, this increase would push him close to that elite 30% mark that most of the top players in the league command. As an added bonus, no Kawhi on the other side of this game presents a massive matchup upgrade. Without him on the floor, Middleton will face some combination of OG Anunoby and CJ Miles, both of which are non-threatening defensive matchups. With the stars missing on both sides of this game, it should remain competitive as the current spread is only 2.5 points. Middleton should be locked into minutes in the mid-30's, with the massive usage bump, in a plus matchup tonight, at under $7K on DraftKings and under $8K on FanDuel. Don't overthink this. I don’t see any reason to avoid him.

Ersan Ilyasova, MIL (DK: $4.1K, FD: $4.1K, Yahoo: $15)

Ilyasova is one of my favorite players to roster when he gets a spot start. This happened frequently last year, when he was on the 76ers, as he would often get a minutes bump whenever Embiid was out throughout the season. Historically, he’s a fantasy point per minute producer, which always puts him on the radar when he’s going to get the opportunity to play thirty or more minutes in a game. That appears to be the case for today, as he will be sliding into the starting lineup with Giannis on the shelf. It’s not the best matchup, as Toronto is tough defensively, particularly around the rim. They are currently first in the NBA, allowing the fewest points per game in the paint. They are also a solid rebounding team, allowing the 10th fewest opponent rebounds per game. But as we always need to remember with NBA DFS, minutes and opportunity always outweigh a bad matchup. When a player is priced this inexpensively and is expected to play starter’s minutes, there should be more than enough chances for them to meet or exceed value. He may not be as efficient with his playing time tonight, as he would be in an easier matchup but he should still be able to get there. He’s another guy that is shaping up as a core play for me on this slate.

Centers

Joel Embiid, PHI (DK: $10K, FD: $11K, Yahoo: $46)

The Process is being unleashed right before our eyes. Embiid is healthy and is absolutely crushing in the early going this season. He has played 35 or more minutes in four of his six games so far (33 and 34 in the other two) and he’s had over 50 fantasy points in all but one of those games, including a 70 point performance just a few nights ago. Without restrictions, we are just now starting to see what Embiid is truly capable of and it’s scary just how good he really is. The one caution here is the blowout factor is certainly in play tonight, but it’s really hard to argue with this matchup. Plus, blowouts are extremely hard to predict, so I have a hard time avoiding players in good spots based on the possibility that the game will get out of hand. Atlanta is playing at the fastest pace in the league which will lead to more opportunities on the 76ers’ side. They are solid at defending the paint so far, ranking 9th in the league, but it’s a small sample size and they have yet to face another center with a usage rate anywhere near what Embiid has. In fact, Embiid has taken at least 20 shot attempts in all but one game so far this season. Meanwhile, the Hawks have faced Kanter (9 attempts, 39 fantasy points), Gasol (7 attempts, 29 fantasy points), Thompson (6 attempts, 27 fantasy points), Jordan (6 attempts, 39 fantasy points), and Carter Jr (9 attempts, 31 fantasy points). Each of those guys still managed solid fantasy performances despite their lack of scoring. So what do you think is going to happen when Embiid hits the floor tonight? Again, my only concern is the ceiling if Philadelphia runs away with this, so just be sure to keep that in mind but remember in order for that to happen it likely means that Embiid has already had a monster night. Fire him up today.

Hassan Whiteside (DK: $7.7K, FD: $8.3K, Yahoo: $26)

The question with Whiteside is always about how long he will play. After the first week of the season, so far, so good. He’s averaging 29.7 per game right now and his fantasy production has been outstanding. He has had at least 35 fantasy points in four of five games. He doesn’t take many shots but he’s an absolute monster on the boards with 18, 10, 15, 14, and 16 rebounds per game so far this season. Due to this matchup tonight, he should get an even bigger bump from rebounds (is that possible?) with the Heat ranking 2nd in the league in rebounding and the Kings ranking 15th in the league in that same category. Willie Cauley-Stein, who will matchup with him tonight, is not a strong rebounder or defender and he will be absolutely no match for Whiteside down low. Not typically known for scoring, I even like Whiteside to get a boost in that department tonight as well. Sacramento ranks 26th in second chance points allowed due to poor rebounding and they are next to last in opponent points allowed in the paint. All of this lines up as the ideal matchup for Whiteside, assuming he gets the minutes. With Miami having last night off, I feel comfortable projecting him for right around the 30 minute mark today. He’s my favorite mid-range center on this slate.

JaVale McGee (DK: $6K, FD: $6.6K, Yahoo: $24)

You were probably expecting me to talk about Julius Randle in this spot, as he’ll now be in the starting lineup with Anthony Davis ruled out tonight. Somehow, even with how productive he has been to start the year, McGee is actually cheaper than Randle on DraftKings and only $300 more on FanDuel for this slate tonight. Randle is a bench player who is averaging only 22.4 minutes per game while McGee is a starter who already has multiple fantasy point performances over 35 this season. This is also, without question, the best game environment of the night with a O/U of 239 and a spread of only one point. We have to keep playing McGee until either the sites (due to price increases) or he (due to bad play) forces us to stop. The prices on all sites still haven’t quite caught up with the production he’s been averaging. In 25.2 minutes per game he has 36.9 fantasy points per game, which is a ridiculous 1.46 fantasy points per minute. I will say, he finally came back down to earth a little in his last game, putting up just 22 fantasy points in 24 minutes in a low scoring game against the Spurs. Today, however, is a completely different situation, as he’ll be matched up with a struggling Karl-Anthony Towns who is historically one of the worst defensive centers in the NBA. There should be plenty of opportunities for the Lakers tonight and I also like McGee to pick up some defensive stats against Towns who has been struggling defensively. With the rest of the field seemingly locking on to Randle as "perceived" value tonight, I will be locking in McGee for what feels like the fifth straight slate.

Freeroll

Congratulations to the winners of Friday's freeroll!

• 1st Place: pacers3131: 304

• 2nd Place: BTB4LIFE: 303.5

• 3rd Place: FunkMaster213: 302

The NBA freeroll contests will take place on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday on DraftKings during normal sized slates.

• 1st Place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd & 3rd Places: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium, a t-shirt, or a coffee mug

• Bonus: If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

HERE'S THE LINK TO TODAY'S FREEROLL!

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).

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