Written by LineStar Fantasy NBA Writer @GP_Landry 

5pm EST Update:

We don't have all the news we are waiting on but we do have quite a bit so let's take a look:

Sacramento:

Iman Shumpert will miss today’s game for rest purposes. Justin Jackson is the likely replacement for Shumpert in the starting lineup and Buddy Hield, who has been on fire, should see increased playing time. Both of these guys are on the radar for tournaments against a mediocre Magic defense. De’Aaron Fox is currently questionable with a sore back. He played through it last night and logged 34 minutes but on the second night of a back to back and this early in the season it might be wise not to push him. If he misses expect Frank Jackson and Yogi Ferrell to split time at the point and can be viewed as minimum salary punts. 

Portland:

Maurice Harkless is officially out. Jake Layman should continue to start but he’s done very little with the opportunity. Both Evan Turner and Zach Collins have played better with the extra minutes from the bench and can be considered again for tournaments.

Washington:

Markieff Morris is out. With Dwight Howard still on the shelf expect extra minutes for both Ian Mahinmi and Jason Smith in a very thin frontcourt. Kelly Oubre would also pick up some extra playing time without Morris but he has been downgraded to a game time decision with an illness. If he also misses then Jeff Green should play all the minutes he can handle. This would be a nice upgrade for Marc Gasol on the other side of this game as well. 

LA Clippers:

Luc Mbah a Moute is out. Montrezl Harrell will continue to serve as backup center and he’s played really well with the additional opportunity. He’s in play but his price has increased.

Toronto:

OG Anunoby is out and Fred VanFleet is still questionable. Pascal Siakam should remain in the starting lineup and while he was outstanding last night we have to remember that had a lot to do with Leonard being out. With Leonard now back Siakam is less exciting but still in play as a punt option. If VanFleet misses expect extra minutes for Lowry as Delon Wright is still being eased back in from injury and only played 13 minutes yesterday.

Miami:

James Johnson is still out so expect Kelly Olynyk to start though he has been struggling. Miami has a significant advantage in the paint tonight and Whiteside will pick up extra usage without Johnson on the floor but I have serious concerns about using him on the second night of a back to back.  

That's it for now. The news that I'm still waiting on personally is the Oklahoma City Thunder as Steven Adams and/or Nerlens Noel could possibly open up value if either or both miss. If they both miss then Jerami Grant would literally play all the minutes he can handle.

The Golden State Warriors had 92 points at halftime yesterday. Klay Thompson set the NBA record for made three pointers in a single game with 14. He ended with 52 points in just 27 minutes of playing time. The Warriors went on to score a total of 149 and even their opponent, Chicago, put up some garbage time offense and make it to 124 for a massive total of 273. The Timberwolves and Lakers game lived up to the hype as well, going over their O/U with a final total of 244 (TWolves 124 – Lakers 120). Yesterday, between these two games going nuts and all the injury news related to stars, was a crazy day in the NBA.

Today, we get an eight game slate to talk about. At first glance, strictly looking at totals and spreads, nothing is really jumping off the page at me. This many games with a total over 220 would have been alarming last season but right now this is pretty much par for the course in the NBA. Six of the eight games are clustered closely together with an O/U of 220 to 226 and then we have two other games that fall below that group. The largest spread on the board is Boston by 8.5 points over Detroit, so the blowout factor shouldn’t (I’ll stress shouldn’t because we never know) come into play tonight the way it did for a couple of games yesterday. 

Several teams are on the second night of a back-to-back including Miami, Atlanta, Sacramento, Philadelphia, Toronto, and Portland. Detroit is the only team on the first night of a back-to-back today. There is no major injury news that we are waiting on. The two biggest impacts will be James Harden and Kevin Love but both are already ruled out, which makes life a little easier. Outside of both of them, we have others on the injury report that are worth monitoring but neither have the impact that Harden and Love do on the rest of their teams.  

Games to Target

I'm not in love with any particular game on this slate, which should keep ownership from being too concentrated on any single game. There are a couple that have some intriguing elements but there's nothing that suggests if you don't have exposure to a certain game, you're going to be in trouble.

Hawks @ Cavs (CLE -4.5, 226 O/U)

This game, surprisingly, features the highest O/U of the slate between a very inexperienced Atlanta team with zero expectations this season and a Cleveland team that is heading toward full tank mode. The Cavs fired their head coach over the weekend and Kevin Love is currently out for the foreseeable future. With Love out, we’ll have value available on the Cleveland side of the ball in an extreme pace-up game with the Cavs, ranking 25th in pace of play at 100 possessions per game and Atlanta ranking 1st with 108.6 possessions per game. Neither team is great at scoring, both ranking in the bottom half of the league and Atlanta, to my surprise, is currently 8th in defensive rating with 104.4 while Cleveland is ranked 29th in defensive rating at 118.3. From a fantasy perspective, with Atlanta’s fast pace and a matchup against a very soft defense, there should be plenty of opportunities for the Hawks. Cleveland, with the value that Love opens up and the much faster pace of play, should see some additional opportunities on their end of the floor as well.  

Clippers @ Thunder (OKC -2, 226 O/U)

We have two pretty evenly matched teams here despite what the records indicate so far. The Clippers currently have a massive edge in points per game, ranking 8th in the league while the Thunder surprisingly rank 27th. We can attribute at least part of that to the Thunder being without Russell Westbrook for their first couple of games. Both teams are strong defensively, with the Clippers ranking 7th in defensive rating at 103.9 and the Thunder being 13th at 106.5. Both teams are strong at rebounding as well, as the Clippers are 8th in total rebounding and the Thunder are 7th. This should be a fast game with both teams in the top 12 in pace of play, with the Clippers getting a slight bump to their current average possessions per game amount. The battle down low should be interesting in this one (if Steven Adams plays) as the Clippers are 5th in points in the paint but 18th in opponent points allowed in the paint while the Thunder are 10th in points in the paint by 21st in opponent points allowed in the paint. With both teams being strong offensively but weak defensively near the basket, whichever team can control the paint tonight will likely have the advantage.

Injury Report

Guards

Kemba Walker, CHA (DK: $8.3K, FD: $9K, Yahoo: $39)

On the surface, this game doesn’t really stand out, with both teams being pretty solid defensively. Miami is 6th in opponent points per game and 5th in defensive rating with a 103.1. Charlotte is 11th in opponent points per game and 14th in defensive rating. The pace isn’t overly exciting, with Miami 17th and Charlotte 22nd, but we can give a slight bump in possessions to the Hornets based on that. The Heat are much better defensively near the rim, however, ranking 4th in fewest points allowed in the paint. With Charlotte not having much of a presence down low to begin with, this should funnel additional shots outside where both the Hornets are stronger offensively anyway and the Heat are weaker on defense. That sets up well for Kemba Walker who has an insane 33.5% usage rate (second in the NBA only to Giannis) and is averaging 31.7 points per game (second only to Steph Curry). He’s attempting the most shots per game in the league with 23 and he’s shooting at a respectable 46.6% from the field. He’s also taking the second most three point attempts in the league (again behind only Curry) with 11.3 per game and is hitting at a 40.5% clip. This offense flows through him and the elite usage rate keeps him in the conversation on any given night. Add in the fact that Miami’s defense forces additional shots outside and you have a recipe for success with Walker tonight. Historically, Walker has always been a better player at home (though this season he’s performed well on the road as well) which is an added bonus tonight. He also already faced Miami once this season and had a huge night with 58 fantasy points including 14 of 31 from the field with seven assists and five rebounds in 40 minutes. He’s one of the top guard options on the slate and shaping up as a core play for me tonight.  

Mike Conley, MEM (DK: $7.6K, FD: $7.7K, Yahoo: $28)

It’s still early in the season but right now exposure to whatever team is facing Washington is proving to be a profitable DFS decision. The Wizards are 2nd in the league in pace of play with 107.3 possessions per game and they are allowing the most opponent points per game at the moment. This game is essentially the tale of two opposites with Washington playing extremely fast, scoring a lot, but playing zero defense while Memphis is 29th in points per game, 28th in pace of play, and allowing the second fewest opponent points per game. This makes the Memphis side appealing, as they should see a massive bump in pace (which will lead to more opportunities for fantasy production) against a soft defense which should allow them to score over their season average. The Wizards are especially weak against point guards, ranking dead last in fantasy points allowed to the position this season (small sample size still) and John Wall has never been known for his individual defense, as he was 32nd in DRPM last season at -0.13. Conley is off to a strong start with over 40 fantasy points in three of his five games this season after missing all of last year. He has an excellent 29% usage rate and is averaging 30.7 minutes per game, scoring 1.18 fantasy points per minute. His minutes per game would be higher but Memphis has already had multiple blowout games (both wins and losses) where Conley has been pulled before breaking the 30 minute barrier. In the two competitive games the Grizzlies have played, he had 35 and 36 minutes. Today’s game, with a spread of only two, should remain competitive, making me confident we’ll see somewhere around 35 minutes for Conley tonight. He makes for a great pivot off Walker in tournaments at a slightly less expensive price point and significantly less ownership.  

Kent Bazemore, ATL (DK: $5.7K, FD: $6.3K, Yahoo: $20)

As ugly as it sounds considering the two teams that are playing, I want some exposure to this game between the Hawks and Cavs. As we discussed earlier it has the highest total of the night and a close spread of only 4.5 points. Despite both team’s rosters making you cringe, there should be some fantasy production available in this spot tonight.  Bazemore is sticking out as an option. He’s a bit volatile with a very low floor but he’s also flashed a 50+ point ceiling already this season. On a team that lacks any real star power (you’re not there yet Trae Young) he’s cutting out a secure role for himself where he’s in the top three on the team in almost every major statistical category. He’s averaging 30.3 minutes per game, 16.3 points per game, and 12.5 shots per game. His 21% usage rate is solid for someone in this price range. Tonight, he gets one of the best matchups you can ask for against a Cleveland team that ranks 22nd in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards and 29th in overall defensive rating at 118.3. With the Hawks playing at such a fast pace (1st in the league) and Cleveland allowing teams to basically score at will, there should be a lot of opportunities for Bazemore to put up points. He already had a huge night against this same team a little more than a week ago where he went 7 for 13 from the field and finished with 23 points, five rebounds, and four assists resulting in 40 fantasy points.  

Forwards

Tobias Harris, LAC (DK: $7.8K, FD: $7.8K, Yahoo: $32)

Harris is emerging as the lead guy in a Clippers offense that doesn’t have any one particular player who really stands out. He has a comfortable 24.3% usage rate and he leads the team in just about everything including minutes per game (34.4), points per game (21.8), field goal attempts per game (15.8), three point shots per game (5.0), and even rebounds (9.0). He’s nearly averaging a double-double and as long as his command of the offense continues to hold, he’s a guy we should continue to target. This game has some appeal from a DFS standpoint. Both teams are fairly good defensively, which isn’t ideal, but they are also fast, with the Clippers ranking 11th in pace at 103.4 possessions per game and the Thunder ranking 7th in pace at 105 possessions per game. This means that while neither side is likely to be overly efficient with their opportunities against tough defenses, there should be ample chances for them to still produce results at the end of the day. The individual matchup for Harris stands out against a mediocre defender in Paul George (0.65 DRPM last season) and the Thunder, ranking 27th so far in fantasy points allowed to small forwards.  

Aaron Gordon, ORL (DK: $6.8K, FD: $7.7K, Yahoo)

I have to start this one out with a disclaimer. Roster Aaron Gordon at your own risk. He is one of the most volatile players in the game but he’s also one of the more explosive. So if you catch him on the right night, it can mean good things for your bankroll. He’s a tournament option only with a ceiling of 60+ but a floor of about 20, which is a wider range of outcomes than we’d like in NBA DFS. I have interest in the Magic tonight as this is a pace up game against a bad defense which always leads to good things from a fantasy perspective. Sacramento ranks 6th in points per game, 28th in opponent points allowed, and 3rd in pace. They are a fast team, with a bad defense, but score enough points to keep games competitive; basically the perfect scenario. The Kings are on the second night of a back-to-back but this is a very young team and it’s early in the season so I’m not concerned about that. Orlando is last in points per game so far but they’ve had some tough matchups against Philadelphia, Boston, and Milwaukee, who are all top ten in defense. They should be able to score above their season average in this spot tonight. All of this means a blowup spot for Gordon but whether or not he can take advantage of it is another question entirely. He should have ample opportunities given the pace of the game so if his shot is falling tonight, he’s going to crush salary expectations.  

Carmelo Anthony, HOU (DK: $5.3K, FD: $6.7K, Yahoo)

Anthony is coming off of two big games in his temporary role as a starter with James Harden currently on the shelf. He had 39 fantasy points against the Jazz, going 9 of 17 from the field with seven rebounds and then he followed that up with 36 fantasy points against the Clippers, shooting 8 of 18 from the field. His price hasn’t moved much on DraftKings in particular despite the huge spike in minutes (39 and 34) and the recent productivity. I’ll gladly take advantage of this again tonight against a Portland team on the second night of a back-to-back after playing in Indiana last night. Houston is struggling at the moment but that can obviously be blamed at least partly on Harden being out and Chris Paul missing a couple of games with a suspension. They are only 19th in points per game and 27th in defensive rating. The Blazers are currently 18th in fantasy points allowed to small forwards, but honestly, it should be worse. They’ve had a pretty easy schedule at that position so far. If Harkless returns tonight, he’s not a scary individual matchup, ranking 40th out of 75 small forwards with a DRPM of -0.11. If he misses again then Anthony will face off with a combination of John Layman and Evan Turner who would both represent an upgrade to his matchup. We don’t have a way to effectively calculate the usage bump for other players without Harden on the floor this season. The sample size is way too small but with Harden having a ridiculous 36% usage rate last season, it’s safe to assume a significant bump for several of his teammates including Paul, Gordon, and Anthony who should all be relied upon to do the heavy lifting on offense. Anthony is likely a core piece for me again tonight on DraftKings at such a low price and with a ton of opportunity available.  

Centers

Nikola Vucevic, ORL (DK: $8.6K, FD: $8.8K, Yahoo)

Similar to his teammate, Aaron Gordon, Vucevic is another volatile option. He has a massive ceiling (which he already flashed this season with 71 fantasy points last week) but a low floor. The price is also a bit steep here so you’re taking on significant risk by rostering him. In tournaments, however, he can break the slate and this shapes up as a spot where he can do exactly that. Did you see what Hassan Whiteside did in this matchup last night? We talked about Whiteside in this article yesterday having a major advantage on the boards and he went out there and cleaned house against Willie Cauley-Stein who is not only a weak rebounder but also a weak defender. Vucevic is not the presence that Whiteside is on the glass, averaging a respectable 10.2 boards per game compared to Whiteside’s monsterous 16.2 per game but I would give Vucevic the advantage over Cauley-Stein. Where Vucevic is much stronger, however, is scoring, as he’s currently 4th in the NBA among centers, averaging 19.2 points per game. Sacramento, meanwhile, is completely inept at defending the paint, where they rank 27th in the league allowing 57 points per game. Vucevic should get a slight bump in rebounding and a larger bump in scoring, making him a confident bet for a double-double with upside for more if everything hits right.  

Marc Gasol, MEM (DK: $7.5K, FD: $7.7K, Yahoo)

For the same reason I like Orlando tonight, I also like the Grizzlies. They are not an exciting team on paper, ranked 29th in points per game and 29th in pace of play. But they will get a big bump in pace tonight against the Wizards who are 2nd in pace with 107.3 possessions per game and are allowing the most opponent points per game in the NBA. Their defensive struggles, particularly near the rim, are further emphasized by the absence of Dwight Howard for at least another week. This means they will roll with a combination of Ian Mahinmi and Jason Smith at center, which should give Gasol a boost in productivity. The Wizards are currently allowing the 17th most fantasy points to the position so far, which doesn’t sound horrible, but you also need to consider who they’ve faced. Valanciunas (who only played 19 minutes), Damian Jones (who only played 12 minutes), and Gortat (who only played 20 minutes) are driving down that fantasy point versus position number for this team. The two times they faced a center that is actually involved in the offense was against Nurkic (52 fantasy points in 32 minutes) and Willie Cauley-Stein (45 fantasy points in 33 minutes). Gasol, who is averaging 30.8 minutes per game, aligns more with the latter group which provides us a nice idea of what to expect.  

Dewayne Dedmon, ATL (DK: $4.8K, FD: $5.5K, Yahoo)

Dedmon is standing out as an option as he seems to be slowly taking control of the position for Atlanta. Alex Len, who is still listed as the starter, has seen his minutes drop to 17 and then 14 in his last two games, while Dedmon, who is easing his way back from injury, has now seen 27 and 23 minutes in his last two games. My assumption is he would have seen more last night had the game not gotten out of hand. I’m comfortable projecting him around 25 minutes at the moment with upside for more as Len continues to be inefficient with his time on the court and his playing his way out of minutes. 

This game sets up really nicely for the Hawks' big men as Cleveland ranks 21st in rebounding (Atlanta is 13th) and 25th at preventing points in the paint (Atlanta is 9th). This gives the Hawks, and Dedmon, a pretty clear advantage under the rim. Tristan Thompson, who we expect to get the majority of the minutes at center for Cleveland, is literally the worst defensive center in the NBA. He ranked 57 out of 57 with a -1.33 DRPM. Not only is he last, he’s last by a large margin as the 56th ranked player had a DRPM of -0.75. That’s a pretty significant gap between two players ranked next to each other. If I was sure Dedmon was the starter and locked into at least 25 minutes, he would 100% be a core play for me tonight. But with the minutes still sketchy, I can’t go in with complete confidence. The matchup is so good that I can see myself going for it, even in cash, but the floor is definitely lower than I’d like.  

Freeroll

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