Written by LineStar Fantasy NBA Writer @GP_Landry

5pm EST Update:

New Orleans:

Obviously this is the big one. Anthony Davis "plans" to play. This is the NBA so this means nothing as far as I'm concerned. It's encouraging though. I would still advice you to have a backup lineup or an easy way to pivot off of him in case we get a last minute scratch.

Minnesota:

This one was a surprise but both Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague are out tonight. Josh Okogie will continue to start (talked about him in the article) and Andrew Wiggins (who is expected to play), Derrick Rose, and Karl-Anthony Towns will all pick up extra usage and are in play despite the tough matchup. Tyus Jones, at minimum salary, should also see 20+ minutes with Derrick Rose starting but being limited to 26-28 minutes.

Phoenix:

Isaiah Canaan and Devin Booker are both out so welcome to Elie Okobo chalk day. Josh Jackson should also start and get a bump though he's been ineffective recently. This is also a nice boost to DeAndre Ayton who we talked about below.

Utah:

Derrick Favors is "available to play" which doesn't help us cause we don't know what that means. We might get more clarity closer to tip off but I'll be staying away until then. Jae Crowder would benefit if he were limited at all. Alec Burks has been ruled out but he isn't really part of the rotation right now so the impact here is minimal at best.

That's it for the news we were waiting on. The rest of the injury news is in the reports below. Good luck tonight!

Happy Wednesday LineStar! We’ve got seven games set for tonight. A lot of this slate right now is riding on the health of Anthony Davis. If Davis plays, then the Pelicans/Warriors game easily becomes the best game to target from a DFS perspective - the top of the top scoring and fastest teams in the league. If Davis misses, I’m not confident that the Pelicans can keep this game competitive enough against this ridiculous Warriors' lineup and I would likely decrease my exposure dramatically. There are other games to pivot to but that Warriors against the Pelicans game will stand above the rest if it stays close. These teams had some high totals multiple times when they faced each other last year. There are some other interesting games as well, so there are certainly other players to discuss but the Davis news will really shape this entire slate in my opinion. Let's get right to it.

NOTE: Not listed in the injury report below but both Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague are out for tonight (Butler is likely out for the foreseeable future as this is apparently a "hold out" of some kind to get himself out of Minnesota.

Games to Target

There are a couple of interesting games tonight that are likely where the majority of ownership will be concentrated:

Pelicans @ Warriors (GS-12, 233 O/U)

The Vegas information for this game just came out. While we don't have any official word yet, the fact that the Warriors are double-digit favorites leads me to believe that Davis will not play. I would have assumed the Warriors would be eight or nine point favorites at home with Davis in the lineup. I still have interest in some individual players from this game if Davis is out but it definitely decreases its appeal. If Davis does play, then this is the game to target. This is the number one scoring team in Golden State against the number 2 scoring team in New Orleans. Both teams play at a fast pace, with the Pelicans ranking 4th and Golden State ranking 10th. Golden State is a top ten defense with a defensive rating of 106.5 while the Pelicans are ranked 20th at 111.8. That gives an advantage to the Warriors. The battle underneath will be interesting here, with the Pelicans having the second highest points in the paint per game at 64 while the Warriors are allowing the 5th fewest opponent points on the paint.

Mavericks @ Lakers (LAL -7.5, 235 O/U)

Seems like every night I want some exposure to the game the Lakers are involved in but so far it’s worked out nicely. The Lakers are one of those ideal teams to target with the NBA DFS trifecta of being a high scoring team (3rd in points per game), a bad defensive team (allowing second most opponent points per game), and a fast team (currently 5th in pace of play). All of this adds up to fantasy production both for the Lakers and the team they face. Dallas is middle of the pack in most categories including pace (15th) and defensive rating (22nd). The battle in the paint really stands out there. The Lakers are scoring the most points per game in the paint while the Mavericks are allowing the fewest points per game in the paint. If the Lakers are able to score at will under the basket they will have a much easier path to victory. If Dallas can continue to play stingy defense down there and slow this attack down it would force more shots outside.

Injury Report

Guards

DeMar DeRozan, SAS (DK: $9.5K, FD: $9.7K, Yahoo: $40)

We don’t have any Vegas information on this game yet, as Devin Booker has a big enough impact that it makes sense to wait and see if we can get an update on his status. Regardless, while not my favorite game of the night, there are definitely players worth consideration. Phoenix is slowly but surely turning into a similar team as last season that plays poor defense (currently ranked 28th with a 115.3 defensive rating) and at a fast pace (currently ranked 17th at 102 possessions per game). This means good things for their opponent’s chance to put up fantasy points. DeRozan has been outstanding in his new home and the focal point of the Spurs' offense. He currently leads the NBA in multiple key fantasy categories including minutes per game (38.9), points per game (28.3), shots attempted per game (22.3), and shots made per game (11). He’s also tied for seventh in assists right now with eight per game. The Suns are 23rd in opponent points allowed per game and have the most turnovers per game in the league with 18.8. This should create ample opportunities for scoring on the San Antonio side with DeRozan leading the charge. As an added bonus, the Suns are allowing the most opponent assists per game in the league with 29.5. DeRozan has eight assists or more in four of six games this season. I think he flirts with double-digit assists tonight (which he’s done once already this year) and gives us a strong double-double. He has 60 or more fantasy points in three of six games this season. He’s still a bargain even at his elevated price.

Jrue Holiday, NO (DK: $7.2K, FD: $8.3K, Yahoo: $37)

Holiday doesn’t need Davis to miss this game to be productive, as Elfrid Payton’s absence will already give him a boost. On paper, this doesn’t look like a great matchup. Golden State has allowed the sixth fewest fantasy points to opposing point guards and they are a tough defense overall, ranking 10th with a 106.5 defensive rating. But two things are helping to alleviate my concerns about the matchup. First, Golden State's low fantasy points allowed to the position is aided by the fact that three of the five point guards they faced are Cameron Payne, Frank Ntilikina, and Isaiah Cannon. None of whom are producers of any kind. They did slow down John Wall but he played less than 30 minutes as the game got out of control. D’Angelo Russell had a nice game in this spot with 44 fantasy points in 30 minutes. The point being that this isn’t as bad of a matchup as it appears on the surface. The other thing that helps us is the ridiculous pace this game will be played at. The Warriors might be able to make New Orleans less efficient with their opportunities but when the top scoring team who plays at the tenth fastest pace (Golden State) takes on the second highest scoring team who plays at the fourth fastest pace (New Orleans) there isn’t a whole lot you are going to be able to do to stop them. Holiday should run the point the majority of this game without Payton and he should play a ton of minutes, as he’ll also be responsible for slowing down Stephen Curry. Assuming this game stays competitive, I like Holiday to put up another solid 40+ fantasy points.

Elie Okobo, PHX (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3.7K, Yahoo: $10)

This is mostly contingent on whether or not Devin Booker plays tonight. The reports that I’ve read about Booker are not encouraging. The hamstring is very sore and he has “little to no lift” on his jump shot. Okobo finally got his chance in the Suns’ last game after Cannon left early with a sprained ankle. Cannon is also questionable for tonight’s game. Even if Cannon plays, he hasn’t been overly effective to this point, and with Okobo really impressing in his opportunity the other night, it sounds like he’ll continue to get more chances. If both Cannon and Booker play, then I will avoid Okobo and take a wait and see approach. I do believe we will see Okobo take over the starting point guard role in the near future and play alongside Booker. But until that actually happens, I only have interest here if one or both players miss the game. In his 31 minutes on Sunday, he had 18 points, seven assists, five rebounds, and only three turnovers leading to a 35 fantasy point performance at pretty much minimum salary. The Spurs are an excellent matchup for point guards with both Bryn Forbes and Patty Mills being well below average defenders. Obviously, there are a lot of variables here between injuries and playing time but if Booker sits, Okobo could make for a really interesting tournament punt tonight.

Forwards

Kevin Durant, GS (DK: $9.6K, FD: $10.8K, Yahoo: $49)

Once again, this game screams fantasy production. We have the number one scoring offense against the number two scoring offense facing off against each other. Both teams have a pace of play in the top ten and as an added bonus on the Golden State side, the Pelicans defense isn’t very good. New Orleans is 27th in opponent points per game allowed and 20th in defensive rating at 111.8. On a team that is completely stacked, Durant still commands a 29.1% usage rate. He’s sixth in the league with 28.3 points per game, third in field goals made with 10.6 per game, and 14th in field goals attempted with 19.1 per game. He has 49 fantasy points or more in every game except for two where the Warriors destroyed their opponent and Durant played less than 30 minutes in each game. Best part about Durant today is the price, for those of you who play on DraftKings. He has the second largest salary drop of the day at $800, which is largely driven by only scoring 34 fantasy points in their last game. But if you recall, the Warriors put up 92 points IN THE FIRST HALF of that game and basically didn’t need him from that point on. I will gladly take those savings on him today in what is the best game environment on the slate.

Draymond Green, GS (DK: $6.7K, FD: $7.6K, Yahoo: $30)

This is really the type of game where Draymond’s value (both in real life and fantasy basketball) really shows. Golden State will need him to stick to Anthony Davis like glue and battle for every rebound, blocked shot, and possibly pick up a few easy second chance points underneath. Green does not have a high usage rate which can sometimes make it difficult to consider him in DFS. His job is to play defense, live under the basket, and get the ball to his playmakers when he grabs a rebound. In games that are super high scoring and faced paced like this one is supposed to be, you’ll often see Green with a ton of rebounds (particularly on the offensive side) and assists, which can rack up fantasy points very quickly. In fact, he had a ton of success in this matchup last season. He put up 50 or more fantasy points in four of the nine times they played each other. He had 65, 57, 39, 44, and 60 fantasy points during their five game playoff series at the end of last year and flirted with a triple-double on multiple occasions with double-digit rebounds or assists. The only risk here is foul trouble but that's really difficult to predict. The price here is too good to ignore.

Josh Okogie, MIN (DK: $4.4K, FD: $4.6K, Yahoo: $11)

Andrew Wiggins is expected to be back today but Jimmy Butler (and also Jeff Teague) have both been ruled out for this game. Okogie should continue to start as a result. It’s not the best matchup against the Jazz, who are always a slow and stingy team, but the opportunity and price here are too good to pass up. The total in this game is solid at 222 with both teams in the top half of the league in scoring. Utah, at least so far, isn’t playing as slow as they have in the past, ranking 15th in pace compared to 9th for Minnesota, so it isn’t projected to be a massive pace down spot. Utah is 5th in defense, which obviously isn’t ideal but again, minutes and price are more important than matchup when you have a situation like this. Okogie is likely going to be less efficient with his playing time but it also doesn’t take much for him to hit value at this cost. In his last three games as the starter, he’s played 27, 29, and 30 minutes and scored 28, 13, and 35 fantasy points. A little volatile, yes, but the upside is enormous and his price has stayed relatively flat over the past two games. Okogie is shaping up as a core play for me on this slate.

Centers

Anthony Davis, NO (DK: $11.4K, FD: $12.8K, Yahoo: $58)

This could very well change soon as I'm not overly confident he's going to play, judging by the Vegas line. I would have pegged Golden State as roughly eight or nine point favorites in a game that Davis is playing in. With the line opening at Golden State as twelve point favorites, I think Vegas is tipping their hand about Davis's status. This is just speculation on my part but I'm reading between the lines. If he plays, he makes this one of the most competitive games on the slate between the two highest scoring teams and two of the fastest teams. It's a difficult matchup against Draymond Green but that won't be enough to do more than maybe slow him down. He had 70 fantasy points on three separate occasions in this matchup last year plus another game with 68 fantasy points. He's fifth in the league in minutes per game (34.7), 12th in the league in points per game (27.3), and seventh in the league in rebounds per game (13.3). If he's on the court tonight then you are playing him.

Rudy Gobert, UTA (DK: $7.9K, FD: $9.1K, Yahoo: $32)

Gobert is on fire right now after two straight games with over 50 fantasy points including 11 of 13 from the field with 14 rebounds against the Pelicans and 9 of 13 from the field with 16 rebounds against Dallas. Tonight, he gets a matchup against Minnesota and Karl Anthony Towns, who is not a strong defensive center, ranking in the bottom of the pack in DRPM. This is a pace up game for the Jazz which should lead to a few extra opportunities for fantasy production. Minnesota is also 19th in rebounding and 23rd in opponent points allowed in the paint, which will only increase Gobert’s chances of putting up another double-double. He’s currently 5th in the NBA in rebounding with 13.5 per game and fourth in the league in blocked shots with 2.7 per game. Not only do the Timberwolves allows the 23rd most opponent points in the paint, but they also allow the second most second chance points. This means, in addition to already picking up rebounds and blocked shots, Gobert should be able to get some extra easy buckets underneath and boost his scoring outlook, which is not typically a strength of his. Overall, he’s lining up as one of my favorite centers on the board. He’s viable in both cash and tournaments tonight.

Deandre Ayton, PHX (DK: $7.1K, FD: $8.1K, Yahoo: $29)

This is also at least partly contingent on the status of Devin Booker. If he’s out, then Ayton would be the focal point of this offense tonight. If Booker plays, Ayton is still viable, but I think he’s overpriced. San Antonio has completely changed their identity on defense. With the loss of Kawhi and Dejounte Murray and the addition of DeMar DeRozan, this is no longer a difficult matchup in many cases. They rank 26th at the moment with a defensive rating of 114.5 and are allowing the 22nd most opponent points in the paint per game. LeMarcus Aldridge is a good but not great individual defender, ranking 25th in DRPM among power forwards with a 1.24. I’m less concerned about matchup though and more interested in the usage he will gain if Booker misses this game. He's had over forty fantasy points in four of his six games to start his career and nearly broke 50 fantasy points twice. I think he gets there tonight IF Booker misses this game.

Freeroll

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Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).

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